Yeah, count me in as someone who bought DIS on the way down. They have so many headwinds it ain't even funny... Shut down theme parks, ESPN, ESPN+, film making shut down,.. and those God damn cruise ships.lol. I'd completely forgotten that part of their business. It's probably a small percentage of their overall business, but we need components that thrive in these times. Sadly, Disney+ might be the only one...
Disney also reported a 58% decline in revenue for the quarter. What happens now? Will people actually go to the parks if they open? This entire segment of our economy that we have been discussing over the past several days in in the same boat. It's just a matter of time before everyone in this sector slashes dividends. Thankfully, I'm underexposed as I don't buy the stocks individually. However, I think we can expect mutual fund dividends to trickle downward.
These are the sectors to short, not Home Depot. I saw a news story yesterday that people all over the country were waiting in line for over two hours to get into a Home Depot. The business is spaced out, but consistent. Come to think of it, whenever (pre crisis) I went into a HD it never seemed overly crowded anyway.
Again, I get back to grocers. Raiders...you didn't comment. Grocers would seem to be perfectly positioned to be isolated from this crisis. Earnings should be stable or rise and dividends should not be at risk. COST should thrive although it's somewhat bloated as a stock. The only problem with grocers is that the margins are always slim, so an uptick in business will not necessarily hit the bottom line significantly.
Gamble
Sorry. I must’ve missed your post about grocers?
But I agree with your assessment about grocers. I think they are/will do fine. I have not seen any studies or anything about folk’s exact spending during the shutdown. But my thoughts and observations are that people have been in the grocery stores and spending money. I get the sense that they are, by default, spending more money in the grocery stores now — because they are not eating at restaurants as much because only takeout is available. But whether they are being more frugal in their spending right now — I have no idea.
Interestingly enough, I read an article/interview a bit before the shutdown started about the state of the grocery business for the year and expectations in the coming year, etc.
One of the big things I remember him saying is that he sees a big opportunity for Independent Grocers. At the time I thought it might be something worth looking into a bit more. But I have no idea how the shutdown would have affected the Independent Grocer sector. I would be very interested in hearing the fellow’s viewpoint after all of this shakes out.
But, by and large, people have to eat. So, I agree with you — they should do well going forward.
Gamble, I think you're on the right track looking at grocers, too. COST is a good one. Also, WMT for those people that are less well-off, and don't have a membership to COST. Both have good on-line businesses , too. I think I'd stay from those that can't fully take advantage of on-line orders (i.e. Kroger).
When it comes to HD, I have a somewhat different experience here locally. The ones I go to are always busy, both before and after the Chinese Virus. I do have to say I've started avoiding HD lately since there's always a line getting in the store due to the social distancing, and I'm not going to wait a half-hour or whatever to get in the store. I can just to Lowe's w/o any issue. Lowe's has been more busy than I've ever seen, too. Shocker !! Lol.
KR $32.78, 16 p/e, 1.95% div
WMT $123.30, 24 p/e, 1.75% div
COST $309, 36 p/e, 0.89% div
This is the mix I am looking at. I don't love the higher p/e nor the yield on COST and that may have it kicked to the curb in favor of a split of KR and WMT. I can't put all my cash in these as then I would be terribly overweight in grocers, but I would like to make the 1.75-1.95 on my parked money. The SPY was yielding 2%. Decisions, decisions.
Thoughts?
Yeah, I figured the PE would be high on these, particularly WMT & COST. I think Everyone is kind of thinking the same thing here.. If you're going to play in this space, maybe play each of these ? The PE levels suggest you're getting a value stock, a growth stock, and hi growth stock , ... KR, WMT, and COST , respectively. Just my $0.02
I shop at Kroger here and if you look back prior to this situation they were not doing so well. Their margins were under pressure, the stock was getting downgraded often and I was actually considering seeing where it bottomed out at and maybe playing it on the divi route. I think they are not going to do well if and when things settle down. I also think both WMT and COST are overpriced, Walmart was struggling on margins as well and were considering divesting Sams as a way to reduce leverage on their balance sheet. Costco is always priced at a premium I dont think it is a value in most any possible way.
I dont like any of them personally.
PENN is on the move today. Last night I watched Fast Money and they did a bit on the casino stocks.....Wynn vs. Las Vegas Sands. They were generally positive on the casinos which surprised me. I see in the news that blackjack will be limited to three players per table, craps 3 per side. Clubs and bars will not be open in the transition opening period. Some casinos are requiring masks....some are not. It's not a bullish scenario at all.
PENN is a USA casino and is up 10% today.
Makes me wonder? Asking myself more questions about this virus. As a population, we have been trained like lapdogs to believe that this virus is the killer of all killers.
The markets are saying loud and clear that this virus is being overblown as we march closer a V chart path for all markets. That said, the markets could be proven wrong tomorrow or next week and then the markets tank another 15%. In 35 years of investing I have hit the bulls eye with 1000% plus returns and conversely lost a few to bankruptcy, but I always believed that I had a good feel on the markets and where we were headed.
I honestly don't know where we are headed, but I'm skeptical of this V path we are on for sure.
Yeah, regarding the casino stocks, social distancing is going to hurt their revenue & profit for the foreseeable future, maybe cut it in half considering they're cutting out about 50% people capacity. Countless slot machines are also going to have to be hauled out of the casino floor, too. Given the big headwinds, I can't see how any of these trade much better until we have more clarity. They all seem to be priced around half their all-time-high, which seems about right.. I'm still a holder of PENN. Maybe we can get some sports in a few months to help w/ the sports book operations. 
Regarding the markets, it clearly is saying that the virus is way overblown w/ the V-shaped recovery in the market. We're now only -15% off the all time high in the S&P 500, and even less than that w/ the NAS. In retrospect, I get how the downward slide in March was "arrested" by the FED, but there was no rationale reason for it to have catapulted higher like it has. 30M Unemployed, 16% unemployment rate estimate (and climbing), and the markets are ignoring the fact that 2/3 of the economy is powered by the consumer. By and large, I think investors are pulling out the FED playbook from 2009 when the FED helped back stop the financial system, and markets shot higher and never looked back. This time, the experiment is several time larger with 10X the number of people unemployed, multiple times more money being injected into the financial system, and unprecedented financial support for small business and unemployed people . Count me as skeptical of the V-shaped recovery. I just don't think the earnings are going to recover as fast as the market thinks they will in 2021.
Here is my take on the market...
So FED fund rate futures are pricing in NIRP by the end of the year...that is both disgusting and shocking, but it is like giving drugs to this market...
With NIRP and the pathetic Trump bond etc etc that means risk assets are the ONLY GAME IN TOWN...the ONLY game. Did anyone see the 10 and 30 today? Massively down in rate and to new lows..how can that be with the backdrop we face, the debt level we face and the UE numbers etc?
The FED is running this market..that is why the Naz is green on the year and why these stupid markets keep ramping..all the big money is running in front of the FED and zero rates. What a horrible horrible thing, our economic condition is abysmal, our government is doing a lousy job on this pandemic, debt is out of control, BK numbers up huge, UE numbers out of control...people are not making it but this market goes up and up and up.
NIRP is poison but it is the poison awful people like Trump love because we can float 10X more debt due to no interest and nobody cares about paying anything back...and there is no yield in this universe except for chasing divi yield on the SPX or hoping the Naz stocks go up and that is your return.
Awful times...but not for the elite or corps, this is a big time wealth transfer for those with power and money...but the little guy is getting pummeled more than ever.
WOW!
Home Depot up to $237 (that's a long way from $80). QQQ at $226. GOOG over $1400.
I sold off 200k six weeks ago and that money would have make me another 30K.
I saw a joke about the stock market where a very nice mansion is all spruced up in the street view but once you get past the front of the house, all you find is a dilapidated mess.
I would be very cautious deploying 250K right now. I say sit on it like a mother hen.
The market is only moving due to liquidity and the FED...nothing else. Main street is a mess, it is obvious that opening things up will make for a relapse...we see it in other countries and it will happen here. People are idiots and think this is overblown and will pass with temp increases...that is false.
So since the FED controls the market, barring a catastrophe the market will continue to ignore the economy, profits, ratios and pretty much anything. The FED isnt going to slow the spigot and that is the only item of importance to our distorted markets.
Yeah, that seems to be the prevailing school of thought about the markets, Wall... "Don't fight the FED." People are taking this to the 'n'th degree it seems . Most any market metric you look at defies logic and says the market is overvalued, and here we are headlong fighting a pandemic... But just people don't care. TINA is back in fashion (There Is No Alternative) and people realize that bonds & cash are losing bets w/ interest rates this low.
Yeah, I would agree with being cautious about deploying 250k . To answer his initial question, I don't know if I would "plop" that sum of money into any one asset class all at once. You're making a "bet" that you are buying into an attractive price if you move all at once.. Not wise IMHO. I've always been a big fan of dollar-cost-averaging (DCA)...Personally , I like a hybrid approach where you initially put a certain % of money into your desired asset class(es), then DCA the rest...
I sound like a broken record here, but the moves in the market continue to be "bifurcated." Namely, "the Five Horsemen" of Big Tech are taking a disproportionate amount of the gains here, and pulling everybody along with it. This is not healthy in any way shape or form for the Markets. As an example today, declining volume vs. advancing volume was 3:1 today. Horrendous ! I just wonder how long the facade can continue and cover for the other 495 companies in the index that aren't performing as well..
We haven't talked about oil recently, but it has really performed well in recent weeks. I've noticed around here in SoCAL that a lot more people are driving around compared to just a few weeks ago. I think that comes as no surprise that more people would drive with SOME businesses re-opening, but I was surprised just how many people were on the road. I would estimate it was about 70-80% of the volume of cars compared w/ pre-Chinese Virus. (I heard someone else in the GD forum talk about similar experiences where he lived). Granted, these are narrow sample sizes, but it does seem to indicate that a lot of people are driving around now even with a fair amount of business closures.. So, how does this now effect the price of oil ? I earlier thought $25/barrel was a fair price of oil in this environment, but frankly I'm surprised at the volume of cars on the road already... Perhaps, we can jump another $10/barrel before we plateau a bit.. Who knows.. And I'm intentionally disregarding the "supply side" of oil for the time being. OPEC+ is doing their part, and SA talked about cutting another 1mbpd just today. The U.S., for their part, has already cut around 1mbpd from its all the time highs reached in mid-March , which was about 13.1 mbpd.
Thank goodness i Have 1+yr left.
W/a Sword over my head out of the 4 choices TODAY
i would split it thus: 100k Crytpto 100k Stock blend of Above and 50 in Mint Silver Eagles.
Preach Wall st.. A wisened Calmer POO listens.
On a scale of 1-10 w/10 being Ultra Conserv. eg. A Treasury Bill and 1 being a Reckless fool.
I am aiming for a 7 - 8 . Ty..BfP
Wall Street is one of the biggest bears on this board. Asking him where to invest 250k is going to get you a conservative answer.
That much you already know.
The answer is everything looks bad. I'm in the same boat with 200k and I'm sitting on it like a mother hen. That was my analogy earlier...not Rush...but whatever. That's what I'm doing.
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