The market does not care about main street, the market cares about the market and how it can go higher. The FED does not care directly about main street, Trump does not care about main street. If these groups cared about main street and the gutters on main street the actions first and only would be DIRECTLY to main street and below...but no that was and is not the case. Trump is an elitist phony who likes to pump his fist to fake support the little guy and stick them in the back with a hatchet with his policies and decisions. The FED thinks all roads run through the market and the banks...give money to the banks and all is fixed, that has not been the case in two decades...but that is how they operate. The government allowed the big corps to step in and take all the goodies leaving the little guys fighting for anything left. I read story after story of small to mid size businesses being rejected for the loans and funding but the first pigs to the table were the large players and THEY got their piece.
I find it mentally insulting that ANYONE thinks Trump cares about the small player, Trump is the worst of the worst...he abuses people, he will lie to your face and act like your best friend and chop your head off and not give a crap. People who really think Trump is any different are out to lunch..he has lived a elitist life, it is all he knows. To me the only politician who really gives a crap about the little guy is Sanders and he refused to try and get elected...so we are stuck with a big fat pig loser and an old elitist loser who cant remember anything...either way the winners are the elite and the losers are the rest of us.
The market direction sans a shock is up because the FED is screwed and long term rates tell us that...
The market does not care about main street, the market cares about the market and how it can go higher. The FED does not care directly about main street, Trump does not care about main street. If these groups cared about main street and the gutters on main street the actions first and only would be DIRECTLY to main street and below...but no that was and is not the case. Trump is an elitist phony who likes to pump his fist to fake support the little guy and stick them in the back with a hatchet with his policies and decisions. The FED thinks all roads run through the market and the banks...give money to the banks and all is fixed, that has not been the case in two decades...but that is how they operate. The government allowed the big corps to step in and take all the goodies leaving the little guys fighting for anything left. I read story after story of small to mid size businesses being rejected for the loans and funding but the first pigs to the table were the large players and THEY got their piece.
I find it mentally insulting that ANYONE thinks Trump cares about the small player, Trump is the worst of the worst...he abuses people, he will lie to your face and act like your best friend and chop your head off and not give a crap. People who really think Trump is any different are out to lunch..he has lived a elitist life, it is all he knows. To me the only politician who really gives a crap about the little guy is Sanders and he refused to try and get elected...so we are stuck with a big fat pig loser and an old elitist loser who cant remember anything...either way the winners are the elite and the losers are the rest of us.
The market direction sans a shock is up because the FED is screwed and long term rates tell us that...
Any opinion on the market going forward? Suprised by the 25% run up so far especially with all the bad economic news
Yes. Everyone in here has an opinion. Haha! That’s the enjoyment in it.
But why are you asking is the question I have. Are you asking what to do with your retirement funds? Or you asking for money-making opportunities? Or are you trying to time it by getting in whenever someone tells you to?
In other words — what are you going to do with the answers you get?
Quote Originally Posted by mjm1012:
Any opinion on the market going forward? Suprised by the 25% run up so far especially with all the bad economic news
Yes. Everyone in here has an opinion. Haha! That’s the enjoyment in it.
But why are you asking is the question I have. Are you asking what to do with your retirement funds? Or you asking for money-making opportunities? Or are you trying to time it by getting in whenever someone tells you to?
In other words — what are you going to do with the answers you get?
The market does not care about main street, the market cares about the market and how it can go higher.
Not being sarcastic at all here. But can you explain to me exactly what this means to you?
I'm fairly certain the market has no ‘feelings’ one way or the other about any street or in any direction at all. The market itself is influenced to move or not move in a direction.
It is not the markets obligation to care about Main Street. Main Street needs to care about themselves.
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
The market does not care about main street, the market cares about the market and how it can go higher.
Not being sarcastic at all here. But can you explain to me exactly what this means to you?
I'm fairly certain the market has no ‘feelings’ one way or the other about any street or in any direction at all. The market itself is influenced to move or not move in a direction.
It is not the markets obligation to care about Main Street. Main Street needs to care about themselves.
I was replying with regard to what was said prior...and you are kidding yourself if you are suggesting the market, government, Trump, the FED etc are not playing games in perception because they all are.
A great example is this loan scam going on...the money ran out way fast and who got the loans and who didnt tells the story. The big corps came in and got theirs and the little to mid size guy got the shaft.
The market perception is not that they could care less about main street and the only thing that matters is liquidity and cheap rates. If the general public really fully understood that all these entities stomp all over them and abuse us then maybe we would get off our lazy butts and do something about it.
And you are wrong about perception and how the market wants to be perceived, its not like a casino where you go in and it is what it is and everyone knows the game and how things are and what it isnt. Corps, investment companies including hedge funds and private equity, government are playing the public and shading information for advantage.
I was replying with regard to what was said prior...and you are kidding yourself if you are suggesting the market, government, Trump, the FED etc are not playing games in perception because they all are.
A great example is this loan scam going on...the money ran out way fast and who got the loans and who didnt tells the story. The big corps came in and got theirs and the little to mid size guy got the shaft.
The market perception is not that they could care less about main street and the only thing that matters is liquidity and cheap rates. If the general public really fully understood that all these entities stomp all over them and abuse us then maybe we would get off our lazy butts and do something about it.
And you are wrong about perception and how the market wants to be perceived, its not like a casino where you go in and it is what it is and everyone knows the game and how things are and what it isnt. Corps, investment companies including hedge funds and private equity, government are playing the public and shading information for advantage.
“The market perception is not that they could care less about main street and the only thing that matters is liquidity and cheap rates. If the general public really fully understood that all these entities stomp all over them and abuse us then maybe we would get off our lazy butts and do something about it.”
What is the ‘perception’ and who is ‘they’ in the first sentence? What exactly are you trying to say there?
If it were as you think — ‘entities’ are intentionally stomping at ‘us’ (I infer you mean the average person and not entities) then what would/are you recommending the ‘us’ get up and do?
what could be done to fix this ‘injustice’ you see?
“The market perception is not that they could care less about main street and the only thing that matters is liquidity and cheap rates. If the general public really fully understood that all these entities stomp all over them and abuse us then maybe we would get off our lazy butts and do something about it.”
What is the ‘perception’ and who is ‘they’ in the first sentence? What exactly are you trying to say there?
If it were as you think — ‘entities’ are intentionally stomping at ‘us’ (I infer you mean the average person and not entities) then what would/are you recommending the ‘us’ get up and do?
what could be done to fix this ‘injustice’ you see?
“The market perception is not that they could care less about main street and the only thing that matters is liquidity and cheap rates. If the general public really fully understood that all these entities stomp all over them and abuse us then maybe we would get off our lazy butts and do something about it.” What is the ‘perception’ and who is ‘they’ in the first sentence? What exactly are you trying to say there? If it were as you think — ‘entities’ are intentionally stomping at ‘us’ (I infer you mean the average person and not entities) then what would/are you recommending the ‘us’ get up and do? what could be done to fix this ‘injustice’ you see?
You remind me of my teenage kiddo....asking a question you know the answer to just to provoke. Do you really not know what the "market" is or how public perception is manipulated and portrayed relative to reality? If people really knew the abuses of the market with how corps received and receive large benefit and do not pass it to the worker, then people might make purchase decisions differently and it might impact those corps in sales and profits. I dont know if people really would make purchase choices differently but for sure there is a curtain separating what corps know and what the public does. There have been many times in the past when a corp gets outed and something comes to the public attention and it outrages people and they take action...that is what I am referring to but seriously how is it not obvious? The market is not transparent, corporate actions are not transparent...this rate abuse is not transparent. If people do not have full information to make decisions how is that representive of a free market economy?
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
“The market perception is not that they could care less about main street and the only thing that matters is liquidity and cheap rates. If the general public really fully understood that all these entities stomp all over them and abuse us then maybe we would get off our lazy butts and do something about it.” What is the ‘perception’ and who is ‘they’ in the first sentence? What exactly are you trying to say there? If it were as you think — ‘entities’ are intentionally stomping at ‘us’ (I infer you mean the average person and not entities) then what would/are you recommending the ‘us’ get up and do? what could be done to fix this ‘injustice’ you see?
You remind me of my teenage kiddo....asking a question you know the answer to just to provoke. Do you really not know what the "market" is or how public perception is manipulated and portrayed relative to reality? If people really knew the abuses of the market with how corps received and receive large benefit and do not pass it to the worker, then people might make purchase decisions differently and it might impact those corps in sales and profits. I dont know if people really would make purchase choices differently but for sure there is a curtain separating what corps know and what the public does. There have been many times in the past when a corp gets outed and something comes to the public attention and it outrages people and they take action...that is what I am referring to but seriously how is it not obvious? The market is not transparent, corporate actions are not transparent...this rate abuse is not transparent. If people do not have full information to make decisions how is that representive of a free market economy?
Wall. I am assuming a few things when I say this, but I would guess that you have accumulated a decent or even vast amount of wealth regardless of the fact that you have not participated in the markets in well over a decade.
So, props to you for making and accumulating wealth "more difficultly" than the free money the markets have been over the past decade.
My question is what are you investing in? You don't really say much in that regard. I get it that you don't like the markets and avoid them with the exception of what you perceive to be undervalued and perhaps even severely depressed valuations (energy, as I think you bought XOM recently).
Where are you keeping all of your cash? Inquiring minds want to know.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
Wall. I am assuming a few things when I say this, but I would guess that you have accumulated a decent or even vast amount of wealth regardless of the fact that you have not participated in the markets in well over a decade.
So, props to you for making and accumulating wealth "more difficultly" than the free money the markets have been over the past decade.
My question is what are you investing in? You don't really say much in that regard. I get it that you don't like the markets and avoid them with the exception of what you perceive to be undervalued and perhaps even severely depressed valuations (energy, as I think you bought XOM recently).
Where are you keeping all of your cash? Inquiring minds want to know.
Wall. I am assuming a few things when I say this, but I would guess that you have accumulated a decent or even vast amount of wealth regardless of the fact that you have not participated in the markets in well over a decade. So, props to you for making and accumulating wealth "more difficultly" than the free money the markets have been over the past decade. My question is what are you investing in? You don't really say much in that regard. I get it that you don't like the markets and avoid them with the exception of what you perceive to be undervalued and perhaps even severely depressed valuations (energy, as I think you bought XOM recently). Where are you keeping all of your cash? Inquiring minds want to know.
I dont say a ton because there is a history here in the forum about posting info...some people use stuff against you and will put you down for a trade..but if you look back a bit buck and I were trading forex quite strongly for a while and it was a great time for sure.
Ive done ok by being smart in my financial decisions...by keeping debt to just a 15 yr house, no car loans, no student debt or CC debt..taking the opportunities to sock cash away as I can and as you mentioned I've recently nibbled into the energy sector and will add if any of my positions go materially lower than my purchase price.
Funny thing my core retirement acct has been inactive as you said a LONG time because the market is screwed up...I do not take a position because the FED forces me into a corner and I must be in risk assets, to me that is sheep mentality and sheep get slaughtered and I wont do the "the market never goes down" investing and yeah its been maddening watching this for the last decade but I am not going anywhere so I know my time will come.
Recently I did throw 1/3 of my core acct into an SPX index fund, I think I missed the boat bottom by 1 day but I was legging in as Ive mentioned my approach is...and I only got 1/3 invested. My target was under 20k, under 15k and under 10k as my points of entry...so we got under 20k and I put 1/3 in and only a Vanguard 500 fund. Well the fund went up 18% and I exited, so I made that total and I am back to flat again just in some lousy bond fund.
The FED cannot force inflation by giving cheap cash to speculators and governments, inflation comes from raw demand...not making more profits for corps and extending debt ratios for governments. They have not figured out how to force inflation but they have spent TRILLIONS in flawed theory and I really do not think they are wanting to hit their inflation target anyway...how could educated people be so stupid? Its a shroud to fund government and private equity/corporations and use the pulpit to spew this inflation bullsh!t line...so either they are full on moronic or it is a scam and I side with the scam reason.
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:
Wall. I am assuming a few things when I say this, but I would guess that you have accumulated a decent or even vast amount of wealth regardless of the fact that you have not participated in the markets in well over a decade. So, props to you for making and accumulating wealth "more difficultly" than the free money the markets have been over the past decade. My question is what are you investing in? You don't really say much in that regard. I get it that you don't like the markets and avoid them with the exception of what you perceive to be undervalued and perhaps even severely depressed valuations (energy, as I think you bought XOM recently). Where are you keeping all of your cash? Inquiring minds want to know.
I dont say a ton because there is a history here in the forum about posting info...some people use stuff against you and will put you down for a trade..but if you look back a bit buck and I were trading forex quite strongly for a while and it was a great time for sure.
Ive done ok by being smart in my financial decisions...by keeping debt to just a 15 yr house, no car loans, no student debt or CC debt..taking the opportunities to sock cash away as I can and as you mentioned I've recently nibbled into the energy sector and will add if any of my positions go materially lower than my purchase price.
Funny thing my core retirement acct has been inactive as you said a LONG time because the market is screwed up...I do not take a position because the FED forces me into a corner and I must be in risk assets, to me that is sheep mentality and sheep get slaughtered and I wont do the "the market never goes down" investing and yeah its been maddening watching this for the last decade but I am not going anywhere so I know my time will come.
Recently I did throw 1/3 of my core acct into an SPX index fund, I think I missed the boat bottom by 1 day but I was legging in as Ive mentioned my approach is...and I only got 1/3 invested. My target was under 20k, under 15k and under 10k as my points of entry...so we got under 20k and I put 1/3 in and only a Vanguard 500 fund. Well the fund went up 18% and I exited, so I made that total and I am back to flat again just in some lousy bond fund.
The FED cannot force inflation by giving cheap cash to speculators and governments, inflation comes from raw demand...not making more profits for corps and extending debt ratios for governments. They have not figured out how to force inflation but they have spent TRILLIONS in flawed theory and I really do not think they are wanting to hit their inflation target anyway...how could educated people be so stupid? Its a shroud to fund government and private equity/corporations and use the pulpit to spew this inflation bullsh!t line...so either they are full on moronic or it is a scam and I side with the scam reason.
Wall.. Good Stuff. I've enjoyed reading what you have to say here, as well as your earlier discussion w/ Raiders...
I came across an article in the WSJ that got my blood boiling.. it talked about last month's selloff, and how analysts attributed part of the widespread selling to banks demanding repayment from investors who had used their stock portfolios as collateral to buy other securities. Those margin calls forced investors to sell unrelated assets..
Why would we ever allow stocks to be used as a collateral ? Maybe this has been going on in markets since the beginning of time, but it's just not stable when stocks are used as collateral. Here's an idea. Force these yahoos to have "cash" in a separate escrow account ; that's the collateral. It's not surprising that these markets get out of hand to the downside when we allow stocks to be used as a collateral. To me, this is not as bad as using borrowed money to invest in stocks, but this is pretty damn close.
Some might say why do I care when it's not my money, but my reply would be it IS my money when this irresponsible behavior (on a massive scale) forces the FED to act, forces Congress to act. The Money used by Congress is "the people's money." We are all gonna have a big tax bill to pay in future years with higher rates, to pay off all of this stimulus money to airlines, Boeing, Small Business, etc. Now, these people acting irresponsibly with their margin calls gone bad are not the only reason stocks sell off, but they "perhaps" play a big contributing role . The WSJ noted earlier in another column that investor trading around the VIX has skyrocketed since the 08 financial crisis. I don't think it's any coincidence that the 2018 plunge in Jan/Feb looked almost identical to this year's plunge. The only difference, as I noted earlier, is that 2018's plunge stopped at -10% . This one in 2020 kept going down all the way to -35%. VIX bets gone bad, margin calls gone bad, derivatives contracts, etc.. this stuff is just toxic to our markets and effects all of us.
Wall.. Good Stuff. I've enjoyed reading what you have to say here, as well as your earlier discussion w/ Raiders...
I came across an article in the WSJ that got my blood boiling.. it talked about last month's selloff, and how analysts attributed part of the widespread selling to banks demanding repayment from investors who had used their stock portfolios as collateral to buy other securities. Those margin calls forced investors to sell unrelated assets..
Why would we ever allow stocks to be used as a collateral ? Maybe this has been going on in markets since the beginning of time, but it's just not stable when stocks are used as collateral. Here's an idea. Force these yahoos to have "cash" in a separate escrow account ; that's the collateral. It's not surprising that these markets get out of hand to the downside when we allow stocks to be used as a collateral. To me, this is not as bad as using borrowed money to invest in stocks, but this is pretty damn close.
Some might say why do I care when it's not my money, but my reply would be it IS my money when this irresponsible behavior (on a massive scale) forces the FED to act, forces Congress to act. The Money used by Congress is "the people's money." We are all gonna have a big tax bill to pay in future years with higher rates, to pay off all of this stimulus money to airlines, Boeing, Small Business, etc. Now, these people acting irresponsibly with their margin calls gone bad are not the only reason stocks sell off, but they "perhaps" play a big contributing role . The WSJ noted earlier in another column that investor trading around the VIX has skyrocketed since the 08 financial crisis. I don't think it's any coincidence that the 2018 plunge in Jan/Feb looked almost identical to this year's plunge. The only difference, as I noted earlier, is that 2018's plunge stopped at -10% . This one in 2020 kept going down all the way to -35%. VIX bets gone bad, margin calls gone bad, derivatives contracts, etc.. this stuff is just toxic to our markets and effects all of us.
A funny and interesting article about Charlie Munger recently (Warren Buffet's business partner).
He likes to say that one of the keys to great investing results is "sitting on your ass." Lol . That means doing nothing the vast majority of the time, but buying with "aggression" when bargains abound. These are his words.. It is an important point, though. Most people ask, Are you buying ?? Are you selling ?? Well, there is a 3rd option in "doing nothing." Investing , as opposed to trading, is often accompanied with "doing nothing."
Munger was asked if Berkshire's phone was ringing off the hook, with corporate execs. begging for capital. His answer was "no." I guess that's not surprising, since big companies in distress are all negotiating with the government for a lifeline, seeing what "freebies" they can get from the american taxpayer.
A funny and interesting article about Charlie Munger recently (Warren Buffet's business partner).
He likes to say that one of the keys to great investing results is "sitting on your ass." Lol . That means doing nothing the vast majority of the time, but buying with "aggression" when bargains abound. These are his words.. It is an important point, though. Most people ask, Are you buying ?? Are you selling ?? Well, there is a 3rd option in "doing nothing." Investing , as opposed to trading, is often accompanied with "doing nothing."
Munger was asked if Berkshire's phone was ringing off the hook, with corporate execs. begging for capital. His answer was "no." I guess that's not surprising, since big companies in distress are all negotiating with the government for a lifeline, seeing what "freebies" they can get from the american taxpayer.
I have a serious question that NOBODY has the answer for. As this shutdown and overall economic slowdown drags on, where is all of the excess oil going to go?
Today's crisis was an opportunity for ANYONE with storage space to top off their storage capacity as they were getting paid $37 per barrel at today's lows just to take possession of the oil. The next month contracts will certainly provide an opportunity to sell at $15-20, so I'm guessing much of the free storage capacity was absorbed today.
Eventually oil producers all over the world are just going to have to shut down production right? It seems against logic to keep producing oil at a guaranteed loss. USA oil is finished as we know it. Many were well down the path towards bankruptcy before Covid19.
The Saudis and Russia will get what they always wanted but is the juice worth the squeeze when there is nowhere to put the dam oil?
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
I have a serious question that NOBODY has the answer for. As this shutdown and overall economic slowdown drags on, where is all of the excess oil going to go?
Today's crisis was an opportunity for ANYONE with storage space to top off their storage capacity as they were getting paid $37 per barrel at today's lows just to take possession of the oil. The next month contracts will certainly provide an opportunity to sell at $15-20, so I'm guessing much of the free storage capacity was absorbed today.
Eventually oil producers all over the world are just going to have to shut down production right? It seems against logic to keep producing oil at a guaranteed loss. USA oil is finished as we know it. Many were well down the path towards bankruptcy before Covid19.
The Saudis and Russia will get what they always wanted but is the juice worth the squeeze when there is nowhere to put the dam oil?
OK, back to today's markets ! What the hell happened with oil ? Lol. I wish I had an empty storage tank on the Gulf Coast. Thinking I could have cleaned up getting paid $35/barrel, then selling it on the open market a few months later at $20/barrel. Lol. I'm sure we'll hear some interesting stories about this in the future. I'm surprised oil investors were willing to "see through" this weird predicament today. XOM and CVX actually fared worse than some of the pure play E&P companies . Go Figure.
Boeing was the worst performing stock on my dashboard of stocks.. again. It is still up almost 50% from its March low, though. In thinking about this a bit, I may have misspoken earlier in this thread when I said that the govt. would never allow Boeing to go bankrupt, because it's too valuable with its missile, defense, etc. government ties. That was foolish of me to say. Of course it could go bankrupt. The template was already laid out with GM's experience during the financial crisis. As it was going to 0, the government basically took it over through bankruptcy reorganiziation, equity and debtholders were both wiped out if memory serves correct, and the company was "released" to the public markets again a few years later. I guess what I'm saying is that Boeing "could" go to 0, though the chances may be remote..
OK, back to today's markets ! What the hell happened with oil ? Lol. I wish I had an empty storage tank on the Gulf Coast. Thinking I could have cleaned up getting paid $35/barrel, then selling it on the open market a few months later at $20/barrel. Lol. I'm sure we'll hear some interesting stories about this in the future. I'm surprised oil investors were willing to "see through" this weird predicament today. XOM and CVX actually fared worse than some of the pure play E&P companies . Go Figure.
Boeing was the worst performing stock on my dashboard of stocks.. again. It is still up almost 50% from its March low, though. In thinking about this a bit, I may have misspoken earlier in this thread when I said that the govt. would never allow Boeing to go bankrupt, because it's too valuable with its missile, defense, etc. government ties. That was foolish of me to say. Of course it could go bankrupt. The template was already laid out with GM's experience during the financial crisis. As it was going to 0, the government basically took it over through bankruptcy reorganiziation, equity and debtholders were both wiped out if memory serves correct, and the company was "released" to the public markets again a few years later. I guess what I'm saying is that Boeing "could" go to 0, though the chances may be remote..
Oil Producers are facing a big predicament, because they cannot easily turn on/off their wells. They must effectively "Cap-in" the well, something they are not accustomed to doing. What I was reading is these producers don't know how the well is going to respond if they cap-in the well, then try to tap the well at a future date. Imagine the possibility of capping-in a well that was producing tens of thousands of barrels of oil, then it fails to produce much oil at all when tapped at a future date..
Oil Producers are facing a big predicament, because they cannot easily turn on/off their wells. They must effectively "Cap-in" the well, something they are not accustomed to doing. What I was reading is these producers don't know how the well is going to respond if they cap-in the well, then try to tap the well at a future date. Imagine the possibility of capping-in a well that was producing tens of thousands of barrels of oil, then it fails to produce much oil at all when tapped at a future date..
Quote Originally Posted by mjm1012: Any opinion on the market going forward? Suprised by the 25% run up so far especially with all the bad economic news Yes. Everyone in here has an opinion. Haha! That’s the enjoyment in it. But why are you asking is the question I have. Are you asking what to do with your retirement funds? Or you asking for money-making opportunities? Or are you trying to time it by getting in whenever someone tells you to? In other words — what are you going to do with the answers you get?
LOL
I'm retired with a significant amount in my federal TSP account. Have the option to move my funds twice a month then back to the G fund if necessary. Note: G fund is a money market fund. Limited to only a bond, small cap, S&P 500 and international fund and of course the G fund. Yes I do listen to all the posting on this thread and everyone seems very knowledgeable but I also go to different financial website for opinion.........BUT just like sports gambling NOBODY KNOWS THE OUTCOME til after the fact. LOL
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
Quote Originally Posted by mjm1012: Any opinion on the market going forward? Suprised by the 25% run up so far especially with all the bad economic news Yes. Everyone in here has an opinion. Haha! That’s the enjoyment in it. But why are you asking is the question I have. Are you asking what to do with your retirement funds? Or you asking for money-making opportunities? Or are you trying to time it by getting in whenever someone tells you to? In other words — what are you going to do with the answers you get?
LOL
I'm retired with a significant amount in my federal TSP account. Have the option to move my funds twice a month then back to the G fund if necessary. Note: G fund is a money market fund. Limited to only a bond, small cap, S&P 500 and international fund and of course the G fund. Yes I do listen to all the posting on this thread and everyone seems very knowledgeable but I also go to different financial website for opinion.........BUT just like sports gambling NOBODY KNOWS THE OUTCOME til after the fact. LOL
Munger makes me laugh..I read most all of his comments and geez why not just say that uncle Warren and all you clowns only invest when you get to hammer the other party over the head? What a schmuck....yeah nobody is knocking on our doors booo hoooo hoooo nobody is going to sign over their company and be hijacked from Berkshire this trip so I guess Ill go and buy some Sees Candy and pout.
In 2009 ole uncle Warren really used his monopoly muscle and hammered some banks and other firms just like a professional looter would, it reminded me of that old miser on the Jimmy Stewart "Its a Wonderful Life" with that cranky selfish evil banker took any and all advantage to screw anyone and everyone. Berkshire is such a slimeball company, I'd never own a share of stock of those guys....another one of the schmucks is Bill Gates...
And the nerve of Munger for bemoaning that the government is giving a freebie to corps, well I can promise you this you old codger if the government in 2009 would not have bailed out the banks, your loan shark deals would have taken your firm UNDER...it wasnt good old uncle Warren that saved the day, the government bailed Berkshire out as much or more than the banks. What a lunatic.
I watched a vid from everyones favorite Kyle Bass and his comments were mine about oil and he is right the next month is going to be rough too because storage IS full and if the Saudis and Russians want to KO our debt filled leveraged shale industry they will need to keep the foot on the production pedal for a few more months. I dont blame them for wanting to kick down shale, we were trying to do the same thing to OPEC so turnabout is fair play. And what happened to the Midas touch king blabber mouth and how he saved the day to stop the oil price decline?? Trump is such a pompous moron, yeah buddy everyone does what you want when you want because you say so. Hahaha....they are all laughing at you including Russia, China and the Saudis.
Munger makes me laugh..I read most all of his comments and geez why not just say that uncle Warren and all you clowns only invest when you get to hammer the other party over the head? What a schmuck....yeah nobody is knocking on our doors booo hoooo hoooo nobody is going to sign over their company and be hijacked from Berkshire this trip so I guess Ill go and buy some Sees Candy and pout.
In 2009 ole uncle Warren really used his monopoly muscle and hammered some banks and other firms just like a professional looter would, it reminded me of that old miser on the Jimmy Stewart "Its a Wonderful Life" with that cranky selfish evil banker took any and all advantage to screw anyone and everyone. Berkshire is such a slimeball company, I'd never own a share of stock of those guys....another one of the schmucks is Bill Gates...
And the nerve of Munger for bemoaning that the government is giving a freebie to corps, well I can promise you this you old codger if the government in 2009 would not have bailed out the banks, your loan shark deals would have taken your firm UNDER...it wasnt good old uncle Warren that saved the day, the government bailed Berkshire out as much or more than the banks. What a lunatic.
I watched a vid from everyones favorite Kyle Bass and his comments were mine about oil and he is right the next month is going to be rough too because storage IS full and if the Saudis and Russians want to KO our debt filled leveraged shale industry they will need to keep the foot on the production pedal for a few more months. I dont blame them for wanting to kick down shale, we were trying to do the same thing to OPEC so turnabout is fair play. And what happened to the Midas touch king blabber mouth and how he saved the day to stop the oil price decline?? Trump is such a pompous moron, yeah buddy everyone does what you want when you want because you say so. Hahaha....they are all laughing at you including Russia, China and the Saudis.
The big keep getting bigger... Well , maybe not today. The biggest 5 stocks by market capitalization in our market make up a staggering 21% of the S&P 500 index. That is incredible. This is the highest percentage ever for any top 5 stocks in the index. This speaks in some sort to the "bifurcation" that has taken place (again). Most companies sit in ruin and in the crosshairs of a harsh recession. I can see how Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook do OK and hold up in the current environment. I can't see how on earth Apple will hold up well in this environment. I spoke about their challenges in detail a few days ago in this thread (post#348). The smartest thing this company did recently was start to transition to more of a "services" company. They better hope that sticks because their hardware side is gonna hit the crapper IMHO. Their iPhone sales have been deteriorating for years , but no one cares because they buy back a tremendous amount of their own stock. That has really saved the stock price, right Tim Cook ??
The big keep getting bigger... Well , maybe not today. The biggest 5 stocks by market capitalization in our market make up a staggering 21% of the S&P 500 index. That is incredible. This is the highest percentage ever for any top 5 stocks in the index. This speaks in some sort to the "bifurcation" that has taken place (again). Most companies sit in ruin and in the crosshairs of a harsh recession. I can see how Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook do OK and hold up in the current environment. I can't see how on earth Apple will hold up well in this environment. I spoke about their challenges in detail a few days ago in this thread (post#348). The smartest thing this company did recently was start to transition to more of a "services" company. They better hope that sticks because their hardware side is gonna hit the crapper IMHO. Their iPhone sales have been deteriorating for years , but no one cares because they buy back a tremendous amount of their own stock. That has really saved the stock price, right Tim Cook ??
Yeah Apple is starting to mature quite quickly but their business is so diverse that it wont take the 75% hit it deserves but it is for sure elevated given the maturity of the business.
That video I watched yesterday with Kyle Bass he mentioned the market valuations now and I think he is overly optimistic on his view. He said the SPX will earn 100 in earnings this year and thus the market is running at a current near 30 multiple right now. I say a 30 because I dont think the S&P makes 100, I think it will come in under. He then mentioned next year its likely 125 or so and thus the multiple is 25 based on next year and that is optimistic. Then in two years maybe 150-160 so its near a 20 with three years out...again optimistic and lofty given the unknown and the issues in the balance PLUS the massive level of debt and the fact rates cant go lower, so if any ammt higher that blows the multiples even higher...but the fact that the market valuations can be stretched with these artificial low rates is absurd and abusive.
Yeah Apple is starting to mature quite quickly but their business is so diverse that it wont take the 75% hit it deserves but it is for sure elevated given the maturity of the business.
That video I watched yesterday with Kyle Bass he mentioned the market valuations now and I think he is overly optimistic on his view. He said the SPX will earn 100 in earnings this year and thus the market is running at a current near 30 multiple right now. I say a 30 because I dont think the S&P makes 100, I think it will come in under. He then mentioned next year its likely 125 or so and thus the multiple is 25 based on next year and that is optimistic. Then in two years maybe 150-160 so its near a 20 with three years out...again optimistic and lofty given the unknown and the issues in the balance PLUS the massive level of debt and the fact rates cant go lower, so if any ammt higher that blows the multiples even higher...but the fact that the market valuations can be stretched with these artificial low rates is absurd and abusive.
It is just ridiculous, Wall.. I agree with you. This just confirms how "expensive" the market really is still. We have a virus that is left to its own devices, and even if we assign $125/share in earnings for next year at a 25 handle, that gets us to $3125. Even if we get $125 in earnings, I just can't understand a 25 handle. This is much higher than the "10 year average forward 12-month P/E" of 15. And as another reference, the "5-year average forward 12-month P/E" is about 16.8. (I pulled this data from a chart in Forbes article by Chuck Jones, Nov. 30,2019).
I read somewhere that most recessions have pulled the forward P/E to the low teens. Interestingly enough, the chart that I referenced above has the forward P/E dipping to 10 back in Dec.2011. What is strange is that this a good couple of years after the financial crisis recession officially ended ..
It is just ridiculous, Wall.. I agree with you. This just confirms how "expensive" the market really is still. We have a virus that is left to its own devices, and even if we assign $125/share in earnings for next year at a 25 handle, that gets us to $3125. Even if we get $125 in earnings, I just can't understand a 25 handle. This is much higher than the "10 year average forward 12-month P/E" of 15. And as another reference, the "5-year average forward 12-month P/E" is about 16.8. (I pulled this data from a chart in Forbes article by Chuck Jones, Nov. 30,2019).
I read somewhere that most recessions have pulled the forward P/E to the low teens. Interestingly enough, the chart that I referenced above has the forward P/E dipping to 10 back in Dec.2011. What is strange is that this a good couple of years after the financial crisis recession officially ended ..
You guys continue to miss the point that the market is trying to figure out what the "blended" future E component is going to be. Believing that the market should be priced based on 2nd or 3rd quarter earnings is irrational. If that were to happen, many stocks would drop 80% and some would go immediately to zero.
Instead, the markets are basically giving everyone a pass on earnings until UNCERTAINTY gets less murky. Thus, the question becomes what is the blended E component when we factor in 2021 and even potentially further out. Tackle that problem and you get your answers.
Raiders hit on this in an earlier post, but it warrants repeating. Being on the sidelines for the past decade (or any decade) has been an incredible financial mistake, if not a financial disaster. The sideline pessimist has lost the opportunity for his wealth to be multiplied by 500-1000% over the past decade. Missing decade long periods in the markets destroys "relative wealth". This has mostly always been the case and to be on the opposite side of this viewpoint is unfortunately the losing side of the bet.
Of course, we don't know what will happen 9 months from now or next year or the year after that. As someone alluded to earlier, like the results of a sports wager, I'll tell you when we get there.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
You guys continue to miss the point that the market is trying to figure out what the "blended" future E component is going to be. Believing that the market should be priced based on 2nd or 3rd quarter earnings is irrational. If that were to happen, many stocks would drop 80% and some would go immediately to zero.
Instead, the markets are basically giving everyone a pass on earnings until UNCERTAINTY gets less murky. Thus, the question becomes what is the blended E component when we factor in 2021 and even potentially further out. Tackle that problem and you get your answers.
Raiders hit on this in an earlier post, but it warrants repeating. Being on the sidelines for the past decade (or any decade) has been an incredible financial mistake, if not a financial disaster. The sideline pessimist has lost the opportunity for his wealth to be multiplied by 500-1000% over the past decade. Missing decade long periods in the markets destroys "relative wealth". This has mostly always been the case and to be on the opposite side of this viewpoint is unfortunately the losing side of the bet.
Of course, we don't know what will happen 9 months from now or next year or the year after that. As someone alluded to earlier, like the results of a sports wager, I'll tell you when we get there.
Gamble, I was looking at 2021 earnings estimates, per Wall's earlier comments of $125 for "next year." I'm throwing out 2020 entirely. To your point , stocks would be plummeting right now if it was looking at the next 4 quarters.
I'm heavily invested and have just a small percentage in cash at this time, and Have benefited immensely from the 11-year bull run. Right now, I'm "trading around the edges" as i referred to in an earlier post and raised a small amount of cash last week. I'm pessimistic in the near term, but optimistic in the long term as I've always been. I do , however, become more concerned with all this debt we as a country are accumulating. That could be a drag on future returns. At a minimum , people should expect Big Tax Increases in our future. I'm thinking about rolling over an IRA to a ROTH IRA this year to take advantage of today's low tax rates. If the market tanks from here, all the better to lower the effective tax bill.
Gamble, I was looking at 2021 earnings estimates, per Wall's earlier comments of $125 for "next year." I'm throwing out 2020 entirely. To your point , stocks would be plummeting right now if it was looking at the next 4 quarters.
I'm heavily invested and have just a small percentage in cash at this time, and Have benefited immensely from the 11-year bull run. Right now, I'm "trading around the edges" as i referred to in an earlier post and raised a small amount of cash last week. I'm pessimistic in the near term, but optimistic in the long term as I've always been. I do , however, become more concerned with all this debt we as a country are accumulating. That could be a drag on future returns. At a minimum , people should expect Big Tax Increases in our future. I'm thinking about rolling over an IRA to a ROTH IRA this year to take advantage of today's low tax rates. If the market tanks from here, all the better to lower the effective tax bill.
LOL
but I also go to different financial website for opinion.........BUT just like sports gambling NOBODY KNOWS THE OUTCOME til after the fact. LOL
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