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    All Forums | Investments

    "BAIL-OUT PACKAGE" WEEK---(Oct 22-Oct 26)

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    claycourtlesson
    KOAJ
    wallstreetcappers
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    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 9:07 AM ET #26

    Being objective and realistic about today, though, at then end of the day, it's going to be bloody.
     
    The shorts will cover the gap down, but I'd say sometime between 11 and 1 eastern, a vicious sell-off could come down the pike and last the whole day.
     
    If there were a bailout package for these ice-holes today, it'd already have been announced.
     
    Reply
    Being objective and realistic about today, though, at then end of the day, it's going to be bloody.
     
    The shorts will cover the gap down, but I'd say sometime between 11 and 1 eastern, a vicious sell-off could come down the pike and last the whole day.
     
    If there were a bailout package for these ice-holes today, it'd already have been announced.
     
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 10:28 AM ET #27

    the bailout will come for the banks and it will be a rate cut later this month

    that does NOT help the mortgage lenders or the homebuilders
    Reply
    the bailout will come for the banks and it will be a rate cut later this month

    that does NOT help the mortgage lenders or the homebuilders
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 10:36 AM ET #28

    KOAJ-
     
    So you really think CFC is going to be left out to dry?
     
    I'd love to see it, but I definitely think CFC will get another HUGE bailout package that will this time save them.
    Reply
    KOAJ-
     
    So you really think CFC is going to be left out to dry?
     
    I'd love to see it, but I definitely think CFC will get another HUGE bailout package that will this time save them.
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 10:38 AM ET #29

    I think I am going to get long CFC for a very short term trade.  There is such a HUGE short position in it that all it would take is for any type of news to be:
     
    "not as horrible as feared"
     
    And then it's ignition, blast off.
    Reply
    I think I am going to get long CFC for a very short term trade.  There is such a HUGE short position in it that all it would take is for any type of news to be:
     
    "not as horrible as feared"
     
    And then it's ignition, blast off.
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 10:45 AM ET #30

    It's all a crock of bull.....a lot of mularkey.
     
    In a purely "free market" system, there ain't no bailout packages.  No white knight.  No savior.  You let the market kill you if you foul up, and you let the market reward you when you do well.
     
    CFC should be allowed to die.  Plain and simple.  But it won't happen.
     
    Did anyone see that interview their fake tan ice-hole sheet-head CEO did with Maria Bartiroma a couple of months ago.  It was rated XXX how "legitimate journalist" Bartiroma let that f---wad slide.
     
    Had I done the interview, I'd have publically humiliated him and embarassed him to the point where he made a tearful confession, or he got so pissed off he took a swing at me......nonetheless, he'd have looked like the farkin icehole that he is.
    Reply
    It's all a crock of bull.....a lot of mularkey.
     
    In a purely "free market" system, there ain't no bailout packages.  No white knight.  No savior.  You let the market kill you if you foul up, and you let the market reward you when you do well.
     
    CFC should be allowed to die.  Plain and simple.  But it won't happen.
     
    Did anyone see that interview their fake tan ice-hole sheet-head CEO did with Maria Bartiroma a couple of months ago.  It was rated XXX how "legitimate journalist" Bartiroma let that f---wad slide.
     
    Had I done the interview, I'd have publically humiliated him and embarassed him to the point where he made a tearful confession, or he got so pissed off he took a swing at me......nonetheless, he'd have looked like the farkin icehole that he is.
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:01 AM ET #31

    CFC has a short position probably close to 70-75 million shares.
     
    That is a powder keg if things DO NOT just totally unravel.
    Reply
    CFC has a short position probably close to 70-75 million shares.
     
    That is a powder keg if things DO NOT just totally unravel.
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:03 AM ET #32

    "For now," have a day buy order for "plenty of" CFC at 12.87.
     
    We shall see.
    Reply
    "For now," have a day buy order for "plenty of" CFC at 12.87.
     
    We shall see.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:04 AM ET #33

    claycourt,

    Tell me though on CFC..what is fair value?

    Forget about short positions, what is fair value? The company is losing business, losing money and margins are terrible..

    What is fair value? It might just be 15 bucks. It sure isnt 30, no way.
    Reply
    claycourt,

    Tell me though on CFC..what is fair value?

    Forget about short positions, what is fair value? The company is losing business, losing money and margins are terrible..

    What is fair value? It might just be 15 bucks. It sure isnt 30, no way.
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:04 AM ET #34

    Currently asking 13.83.
    Reply
    Currently asking 13.83.
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:07 AM ET #35

    WSC-
     
    To me, fair value is somewhere in the 12s......reason for buy limit at 12.87.
     
    But in the world of stock market lies and fairy tales, how the heck can there be "fair value."
     
    If there were a true "fair value," then ticker prices would go to "fair value" and stay there until new or old business came in.....then it would gap there.
     
    Too abstract to even comtemplate "fair value."
     
    Look it, man, you know better than I the true power of a short squeeze.  When there are 75 millions short shares outstanding, all it takes is a tiny spark and kaboom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Reply
    WSC-
     
    To me, fair value is somewhere in the 12s......reason for buy limit at 12.87.
     
    But in the world of stock market lies and fairy tales, how the heck can there be "fair value."
     
    If there were a true "fair value," then ticker prices would go to "fair value" and stay there until new or old business came in.....then it would gap there.
     
    Too abstract to even comtemplate "fair value."
     
    Look it, man, you know better than I the true power of a short squeeze.  When there are 75 millions short shares outstanding, all it takes is a tiny spark and kaboom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:16 AM ET #36

    WSC-
     
    Also from what I'm reading from the campfire, the BIG MONEY shorts (the ones that run billions and billions of dollars in collusion with their fellow partners in crime cronies, not the small time retail sheethead flunkies like I) are unwinding their positions in CFC.
     
    Why stand in front of that nightmare?
     
    If CFC were going to go to zero, these guys would be holding firm.
     
    Players who turn over billions and billions of dollars on a day to day basis don't lose.  They win.
     
    I am just a flunkie along the road trying to hitch a ride up the street without bothering anyone.
     
    I'm OK with that.
    Reply
    WSC-
     
    Also from what I'm reading from the campfire, the BIG MONEY shorts (the ones that run billions and billions of dollars in collusion with their fellow partners in crime cronies, not the small time retail sheethead flunkies like I) are unwinding their positions in CFC.
     
    Why stand in front of that nightmare?
     
    If CFC were going to go to zero, these guys would be holding firm.
     
    Players who turn over billions and billions of dollars on a day to day basis don't lose.  They win.
     
    I am just a flunkie along the road trying to hitch a ride up the street without bothering anyone.
     
    I'm OK with that.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:47 AM ET #37

    claycourt,

    My point is people look at historic prices on stocks and think that a 50% haircut means it is 50% undervalued.

    CFC hit a high based on a soaring market, that market no longer exists..so based on legit revenues and earnings I am not sure CFC is worth 12 bucks..especially with the write downs and drop in revenue they will keep having.

    I think you consider short positions much more than I do, which is completely ok of course.

    SPWR hanging in there..I think people are agreeing with your theory about the conference..        
    Reply
    claycourt,

    My point is people look at historic prices on stocks and think that a 50% haircut means it is 50% undervalued.

    CFC hit a high based on a soaring market, that market no longer exists..so based on legit revenues and earnings I am not sure CFC is worth 12 bucks..especially with the write downs and drop in revenue they will keep having.

    I think you consider short positions much more than I do, which is completely ok of course.

    SPWR hanging in there..I think people are agreeing with your theory about the conference..        
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 11:54 AM ET #38

    SPWR could really hurt some shorts today.
     
    Looks like my buy of CFC at 12.87 is out the window.....it reversed off 13.50!
    Reply
    SPWR could really hurt some shorts today.
     
    Looks like my buy of CFC at 12.87 is out the window.....it reversed off 13.50!
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:04 PM ET #39

    Well, call me an idiot (I am), but am going to do the "trade thing" with CFC.
     
    In for "enough to keep me hopping" at 13.98.
     
    Stop loss limit set for 12.67.
     
    Will look to bail out some time during day and fork over 28% of the gains to Uncle Sam.
     
    We shall see, but I think the REALLY BIG SHORTS started covering at 13.50 and will cover all day using the MER news as the negative catalyst.....as in "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
     
    We'll see how good or bad of a trader I am.   (I'm bad).
     
    Here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Reply
    Well, call me an idiot (I am), but am going to do the "trade thing" with CFC.
     
    In for "enough to keep me hopping" at 13.98.
     
    Stop loss limit set for 12.67.
     
    Will look to bail out some time during day and fork over 28% of the gains to Uncle Sam.
     
    We shall see, but I think the REALLY BIG SHORTS started covering at 13.50 and will cover all day using the MER news as the negative catalyst.....as in "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
     
    We'll see how good or bad of a trader I am.   (I'm bad).
     
    Here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:08 PM ET #40

    Stock acting pretty decent to be honest..

    You are looking good so far!

    IMB the same, nice bounce.  
    Reply
    Stock acting pretty decent to be honest..

    You are looking good so far!

    IMB the same, nice bounce.  
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:13 PM ET #41

    Yeah, WSC, the move off 13.5 for CFC looked like it had legs.  Watched it to 14.14, and then on the dip, I took the plunge.
     
    Anything can and will happen, though.  It'll keep me hopping the whole day, but I damn sure am not going long overnight with it.....too much potential calamity.
     
    Did you get in IMB?  If so, where?
    Reply
    Yeah, WSC, the move off 13.5 for CFC looked like it had legs.  Watched it to 14.14, and then on the dip, I took the plunge.
     
    Anything can and will happen, though.  It'll keep me hopping the whole day, but I damn sure am not going long overnight with it.....too much potential calamity.
     
    Did you get in IMB?  If so, where?
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:14 PM ET #42

    I am going to try and buy some IMB at 12, nothing big..but enough to make it interesting.
    Reply
    I am going to try and buy some IMB at 12, nothing big..but enough to make it interesting.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:20 PM ET #43

    Well so far both my buy orders were within a nickle when I placed, and now both are off those levels..go figure.

    I will let IMB hang out, maybe she comes back in..maybe not..and I am holding these shares, not selling for a quickie. Now for me holding isnt a year..it could be a month or two..haha

    I have a TRADING acct which is taxable and several IRA accts which are not..  
    Reply
    Well so far both my buy orders were within a nickle when I placed, and now both are off those levels..go figure.

    I will let IMB hang out, maybe she comes back in..maybe not..and I am holding these shares, not selling for a quickie. Now for me holding isnt a year..it could be a month or two..haha

    I have a TRADING acct which is taxable and several IRA accts which are not..  
     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:25 PM ET #44

    Yeah, styles differ.
     
    Man, I'd take IMB right here rather than hand-wring over nickels and pennies.  I've done that too many times and missed too much by trying to be cute.
     
    If you got a 2 month horizon and can hold out, 8 cents won't matter.
     
    You could bet mid 12s off this in one day.
     
    Think about it, you know this better than I:
     
    Everyone and his dog knew what MER would say today......MER was sold off hard Monday and Tuesday.  Today is "sell the fact day."  JMO.
     
    Cheers
    Reply
    Yeah, styles differ.
     
    Man, I'd take IMB right here rather than hand-wring over nickels and pennies.  I've done that too many times and missed too much by trying to be cute.
     
    If you got a 2 month horizon and can hold out, 8 cents won't matter.
     
    You could bet mid 12s off this in one day.
     
    Think about it, you know this better than I:
     
    Everyone and his dog knew what MER would say today......MER was sold off hard Monday and Tuesday.  Today is "sell the fact day."  JMO.
     
    Cheers
     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:28 PM ET #45

    claycourt,

    Well I got the shares..no huge rush and the stock could drop more. I would say 11 is a stop level for me on the trade, or a second buy..depends.

    CFC acting VERY VERY good....

    What are you looking for on the trade?  


    Reply
    claycourt,

    Well I got the shares..no huge rush and the stock could drop more. I would say 11 is a stop level for me on the trade, or a second buy..depends.

    CFC acting VERY VERY good....

    What are you looking for on the trade?  


     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posts: 14917
    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:35 PM ET #46

    WSC-
     
    Well in on 12......I think you can hit mid 12s over next 2 months, for sure.
     
    14.50 on CFC is where I should bail.....it has some resistance there, and I'm not looking to have a heart attack today.
     
     
    Reply
    WSC-
     
    Well in on 12......I think you can hit mid 12s over next 2 months, for sure.
     
    14.50 on CFC is where I should bail.....it has some resistance there, and I'm not looking to have a heart attack today.
     
     
     
    KOAJ
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:36 PM ET #47

    CFC notes from minyanville.com

    Countrywide Financial (CFC), the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, will partner with a housing advocacy group to help homeowners at risk of foreclosure by changing the terms of their mortgage loans.   
     

    • Countrywide attributed the widespread home loan restructuring program, which could total as much as $16 billion, to housing.
    • We've seen this movie before, however.
    • It's called desperation in the final hour.
    • Lenders do not help borrowers, not on a wide scale like the CFC program, because they want to, they help the because they have to.
    • This is important to note because despite the media billing the CFC restructuring as some kind of charitable-based benevolent gesture, the reality, at least from anecdotal evidence, is that homeowners have been struggling for months to get their mortgages restructured to avoid foreclosure. 
    • Former homeowners who have now gone through the foreclosure process have written to us in recent weeks, as rumors of the workouts with CFC began to surface, noting that in many cases they tried for months to avoid foreclosure by doing re-working their loan or even attempting a short sale, 
    • Many report receiving no response from Countrywide.
    • But this is typical behavior at the beginning (yes, beginning) of a housing downturn. 
    • Recently we spoke with a man from Texas now living in New York who moved here just as the property market was collapsing in Dallas in the 1980s. 
    • "I came to New York with the full intention of selling my Dallas house, which at the time was just a typical house for a small family I had bought for $65,000," he said.
    • "Some offers came, but in both cases their mortgages fell through.  After about eight months of trying to carry a New York apartment with the mortgage I simply couldn't do it.  Still, I believed that if I could make it just another 8-10 months I could eventually sell my Dallas home, even at a small loss, and come out ok.  So I went to the bank to try and workout an agreement or even borrow some money to avoid foreclosure.  They basically laughed at me.  So I went through the foreclosure process," he said. 
    • And what happened to the lender who foreclosed on the property? 
    • "They went bankrupt within a year."

    Reply
    CFC notes from minyanville.com

    Countrywide Financial (CFC), the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, will partner with a housing advocacy group to help homeowners at risk of foreclosure by changing the terms of their mortgage loans.   
     

    • Countrywide attributed the widespread home loan restructuring program, which could total as much as $16 billion, to housing.
    • We've seen this movie before, however.
    • It's called desperation in the final hour.
    • Lenders do not help borrowers, not on a wide scale like the CFC program, because they want to, they help the because they have to.
    • This is important to note because despite the media billing the CFC restructuring as some kind of charitable-based benevolent gesture, the reality, at least from anecdotal evidence, is that homeowners have been struggling for months to get their mortgages restructured to avoid foreclosure. 
    • Former homeowners who have now gone through the foreclosure process have written to us in recent weeks, as rumors of the workouts with CFC began to surface, noting that in many cases they tried for months to avoid foreclosure by doing re-working their loan or even attempting a short sale, 
    • Many report receiving no response from Countrywide.
    • But this is typical behavior at the beginning (yes, beginning) of a housing downturn. 
    • Recently we spoke with a man from Texas now living in New York who moved here just as the property market was collapsing in Dallas in the 1980s. 
    • "I came to New York with the full intention of selling my Dallas house, which at the time was just a typical house for a small family I had bought for $65,000," he said.
    • "Some offers came, but in both cases their mortgages fell through.  After about eight months of trying to carry a New York apartment with the mortgage I simply couldn't do it.  Still, I believed that if I could make it just another 8-10 months I could eventually sell my Dallas home, even at a small loss, and come out ok.  So I went to the bank to try and workout an agreement or even borrow some money to avoid foreclosure.  They basically laughed at me.  So I went through the foreclosure process," he said. 
    • And what happened to the lender who foreclosed on the property? 
    • "They went bankrupt within a year."

     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posts: 14917
    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:40 PM ET #48

    Just got filled for sale at 14.50.
     
    Can't bitch about .52 points in less than an hour.  Oh yeah, it was stressful, but it did pay.
     
    Won't be doing this trading stuff for a while now.....I got my yaa-yaas out.  I'll let you pros do the trading thing and will retreat back to my boring ways of buy and hold.
    Reply
    Just got filled for sale at 14.50.
     
    Can't bitch about .52 points in less than an hour.  Oh yeah, it was stressful, but it did pay.
     
    Won't be doing this trading stuff for a while now.....I got my yaa-yaas out.  I'll let you pros do the trading thing and will retreat back to my boring ways of buy and hold.
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
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    Posts: 14917
    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:42 PM ET #49

    Good stuff, KOAJ.  CFC is horse crap, but it was worth the trade today.
    Reply
    Good stuff, KOAJ.  CFC is horse crap, but it was worth the trade today.
     
     
    wallstreetcappers
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posts: 58464
    Posted: Oct. 24, 2007 - 12:46 PM ET #50

    Nice trade!


    Reply
    Nice trade!


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