Im in on DGP and only because a friend recently turned me on to your posts. I feel Im late to the DIG trade, should I just wait for the DUG trade at this point?.........Thanks I think your on the money, I was a fleck fan, still read him but ive been reading your posts and they make more sense.
Mikey
Im in on DGP and only because a friend recently turned me on to your posts. I feel Im late to the DIG trade, should I just wait for the DUG trade at this point?.........Thanks I think your on the money, I was a fleck fan, still read him but ive been reading your posts and they make more sense.
Oldhost...I would wait for the DUG. The reason is that if we get stuck in the trade the long term will bail us out ...Oil has bubbled and topped but these kind of tops can linger for 4 to 6 months. However, in the next couple of years oil will act just like the real estate market acted the last 2 years. The realiity is that oil is going to 40 to 50. It will do it a leg at a time ..We just finished the first leg the market makers need to get the shorts out and the longs back in before the next leg..this takes time. This trade on the DUG I think it could go as low as 30 on this hit but I will start to buy at 32.5 and add on lower. I am guessing that this trade goes to about 38 this time by the end of OCT. and then would expect oil to make a run at its recent highs near 140 by the end of this year beginning of next year. I would say the that is a typical senario for a bubble top like this one. One out of 10 times it will not retest the high and just crash. So I personally will buy as much as I can in the low 30's and hold for the next 2 years. I think 85 is dooable if you are willing to wait. I you want to trade sell it at 38 or so on its next rally into late Oct. I hope this helps
Oldhost...I would wait for the DUG. The reason is that if we get stuck in the trade the long term will bail us out ...Oil has bubbled and topped but these kind of tops can linger for 4 to 6 months. However, in the next couple of years oil will act just like the real estate market acted the last 2 years. The realiity is that oil is going to 40 to 50. It will do it a leg at a time ..We just finished the first leg the market makers need to get the shorts out and the longs back in before the next leg..this takes time. This trade on the DUG I think it could go as low as 30 on this hit but I will start to buy at 32.5 and add on lower. I am guessing that this trade goes to about 38 this time by the end of OCT. and then would expect oil to make a run at its recent highs near 140 by the end of this year beginning of next year. I would say the that is a typical senario for a bubble top like this one. One out of 10 times it will not retest the high and just crash. So I personally will buy as much as I can in the low 30's and hold for the next 2 years. I think 85 is dooable if you are willing to wait. I you want to trade sell it at 38 or so on its next rally into late Oct. I hope this helps
Mikey, I have alot of GLD 81.26 today that I bought before I saw your DGP( bought some ) the question would you sell GLD now and buy DGP ? thanks P.S. also have SLV ?
Mikey, I have alot of GLD 81.26 today that I bought before I saw your DGP( bought some ) the question would you sell GLD now and buy DGP ? thanks P.S. also have SLV ?
Thanks Mikey, Did the Fed and LEH bs drive the dow,s&p and the greenback up today? oil & metals down. Im holding my DGP. My cost avg is 16.18. just wondering why buyers maybe computers?would jump in on a friday and stay in a position over the weekend.
A bit about me, Ive worked.in vegas as a player development exec for 11 years before that a pit boss. I opened LVS (Venetian) Since then Ive moved on to a private property. Tried to short LVS a number of times, just can't seem to time it right. Any opinion on LVS?
Thanks Mikey, Did the Fed and LEH bs drive the dow,s&p and the greenback up today? oil & metals down. Im holding my DGP. My cost avg is 16.18. just wondering why buyers maybe computers?would jump in on a friday and stay in a position over the weekend.
A bit about me, Ive worked.in vegas as a player development exec for 11 years before that a pit boss. I opened LVS (Venetian) Since then Ive moved on to a private property. Tried to short LVS a number of times, just can't seem to time it right. Any opinion on LVS?
"Stocks advanced Friday after a double shot of soothing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. "
Bernanke called the recent decline in commodity prices and stabilization of the U.S. dollar "encouraging," in opening remarks at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. These developments "should lead inflation to moderatelater this year and next," Bernanke said in prepared remarks.
Meanwhile, Warren Buffett weighed in on everything from the dollar to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during an interview with CNBC. Buffett said he has no bets against the dollar and thinks stocks are more attractive now than a year
Well Ben I agree with you you slimeball. Inflation WIIL BE LOWER. Interest rates will not only STAY LOWER they will go alot lower. Maybe to fricking ZERO. TAHTS THE GOOD NEWS
NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS. THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET.
Mr.Buffett ........You Fund is down 25% this year.
But hey the market really thinks these guys are really smart. Wink Wink. Anyway it is good enough news to scam a rally out of it.
By the way Mr. Buffett owns ALOT of insurance companies. That ain't good.
From CNBC website
"Stocks advanced Friday after a double shot of soothing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. "
Bernanke called the recent decline in commodity prices and stabilization of the U.S. dollar "encouraging," in opening remarks at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. These developments "should lead inflation to moderatelater this year and next," Bernanke said in prepared remarks.
Meanwhile, Warren Buffett weighed in on everything from the dollar to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during an interview with CNBC. Buffett said he has no bets against the dollar and thinks stocks are more attractive now than a year
Well Ben I agree with you you slimeball. Inflation WIIL BE LOWER. Interest rates will not only STAY LOWER they will go alot lower. Maybe to fricking ZERO. TAHTS THE GOOD NEWS
NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS. THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET.
Mr.Buffett ........You Fund is down 25% this year.
But hey the market really thinks these guys are really smart. Wink Wink. Anyway it is good enough news to scam a rally out of it.
By the way Mr. Buffett owns ALOT of insurance companies. That ain't good.
Host..I know quite a bit about the gambling industry and I was also short LVS at about 100 on the way up in the summer of 2007. At one point I was down almost 50 points on the first trade. I know a bubble when I see it and the gambling industry had a bubble. That industry is finished for along time. I think the stock goes lower in the long term. The problem you are faced with is this. I know it is going lower but I also know that they can come up with some BS news and take it up 20 points. The way I handle this is to do nothing until I hear the BS news and the price spike. I will show you an example...If you can call up a chart on DKS...Dicks Sporting Goods. This company is gonna be hurting. The stock price completely broke down on 5/22/08. This is a short from that point on. Notice the spike in the last 2 days? Well there is your entry point for the short. I usually use the 90 day average to intiate the position that is where DKS is now. But if you were in a shopr position on that stock you would probably feel like covering.
What makes this game so hard is the counter moves that will enevitably come. But once an industry has bubbled IE Techs in 2000 Housing in 2005 and Commodites and Oil in 2008 the trend will be down for years.. Go with the long term trend .
What also helps me is that when I take my first position in something is it small. No matter how much I believe somehting I leave myself alot of room to play it LET THEM TELL YOU HOW BIG A POSITION YOU SHOULD TAKE. Start small and add on if you are convenced of your position. Regarding LVS if you would have started at 80 on the way up that would be a big winner now. The job of the insiders is to convice you that what you are seeing and know to be true is wrong
So when you know something ...and you did...start small and expect to get hammered in the beginnig. The more they hammer you the bigger the position you get.
What happens to most of us is when we get an idea we load it on and they force us out. Hope this helps
Host..I know quite a bit about the gambling industry and I was also short LVS at about 100 on the way up in the summer of 2007. At one point I was down almost 50 points on the first trade. I know a bubble when I see it and the gambling industry had a bubble. That industry is finished for along time. I think the stock goes lower in the long term. The problem you are faced with is this. I know it is going lower but I also know that they can come up with some BS news and take it up 20 points. The way I handle this is to do nothing until I hear the BS news and the price spike. I will show you an example...If you can call up a chart on DKS...Dicks Sporting Goods. This company is gonna be hurting. The stock price completely broke down on 5/22/08. This is a short from that point on. Notice the spike in the last 2 days? Well there is your entry point for the short. I usually use the 90 day average to intiate the position that is where DKS is now. But if you were in a shopr position on that stock you would probably feel like covering.
What makes this game so hard is the counter moves that will enevitably come. But once an industry has bubbled IE Techs in 2000 Housing in 2005 and Commodites and Oil in 2008 the trend will be down for years.. Go with the long term trend .
What also helps me is that when I take my first position in something is it small. No matter how much I believe somehting I leave myself alot of room to play it LET THEM TELL YOU HOW BIG A POSITION YOU SHOULD TAKE. Start small and add on if you are convenced of your position. Regarding LVS if you would have started at 80 on the way up that would be a big winner now. The job of the insiders is to convice you that what you are seeing and know to be true is wrong
So when you know something ...and you did...start small and expect to get hammered in the beginnig. The more they hammer you the bigger the position you get.
What happens to most of us is when we get an idea we load it on and they force us out. Hope this helps
Post Script.. The best time to put on a position is not when you fell like putting on that position it is when you say to yourself I am glad I didnt do that. So if you have a big urge to do something do it small and when you can say wow I am glad I went small add on bigger. Back to the LVS when it was going up in 2007 the news and earnings were really good and you and I both knew that it was unsustainable. The rule is to wait until after the price break comes after the bubble. We get caught up in the value of something. Stocks are essentially one way trains. You need to wait until the momentum is broken before you press. Very hard to do but if you wiil notice on this chart there are 2 tops 2006 when we know it is over and can see the business peaking and the blowoff top in 2007 that blows our mind. Once you have the second top which is going up against all reason. I call that second rally a DISCONNECT because it is making big moves up and you can actually see thier business going to hell. The is very typical of a bubble. The same thing happed to housing in early 2006. If you look at KHB the rally into the bubble in July 2005 and the second top in Jan 2006. The second top came when you could actually see housing slowing down. On CNBC at the time the CEO's of every housing company TOL KBH CTX PHM LEN were all on CNBC saying "we have good earning visibility for the next 2 years" Now you knew they were lying but the stocks still kept beating your brains out. The Mr. Cramer comes on and tells you "you have to be crazy to short the housing stocks." This is part of the game they are trying to get you to disbelieve what you know is the truth. But I assure you that in the end the pice will validate the truth. The hard part is to stick with the barage of BS that will constantly try to get you off of the position.
If you focus on the financials ...the news broke in early 2007 that subprime was a problem. The CEO of every major financial company went on CNBC and said it was just a small group and not the system. The financials finally broke down in OCT. That 8 months of lying about their sitiuation. Look at a chart of CFC ..they released "better than expected earning for the first QTR of 2007 and the CEO was on ...thats right CNBC, touting the stock and saying see we are OK. The stock rallyed up to over 40 in May. To me that was unreal but when that disconnect...or ...departure from reality occurs and you fell like saying this thing will never go down because the lying will never stop ...THEN DUMP ALL OVER THEM. It always happens that way and always will . Hope this helps
Post Script.. The best time to put on a position is not when you fell like putting on that position it is when you say to yourself I am glad I didnt do that. So if you have a big urge to do something do it small and when you can say wow I am glad I went small add on bigger. Back to the LVS when it was going up in 2007 the news and earnings were really good and you and I both knew that it was unsustainable. The rule is to wait until after the price break comes after the bubble. We get caught up in the value of something. Stocks are essentially one way trains. You need to wait until the momentum is broken before you press. Very hard to do but if you wiil notice on this chart there are 2 tops 2006 when we know it is over and can see the business peaking and the blowoff top in 2007 that blows our mind. Once you have the second top which is going up against all reason. I call that second rally a DISCONNECT because it is making big moves up and you can actually see thier business going to hell. The is very typical of a bubble. The same thing happed to housing in early 2006. If you look at KHB the rally into the bubble in July 2005 and the second top in Jan 2006. The second top came when you could actually see housing slowing down. On CNBC at the time the CEO's of every housing company TOL KBH CTX PHM LEN were all on CNBC saying "we have good earning visibility for the next 2 years" Now you knew they were lying but the stocks still kept beating your brains out. The Mr. Cramer comes on and tells you "you have to be crazy to short the housing stocks." This is part of the game they are trying to get you to disbelieve what you know is the truth. But I assure you that in the end the pice will validate the truth. The hard part is to stick with the barage of BS that will constantly try to get you off of the position.
If you focus on the financials ...the news broke in early 2007 that subprime was a problem. The CEO of every major financial company went on CNBC and said it was just a small group and not the system. The financials finally broke down in OCT. That 8 months of lying about their sitiuation. Look at a chart of CFC ..they released "better than expected earning for the first QTR of 2007 and the CEO was on ...thats right CNBC, touting the stock and saying see we are OK. The stock rallyed up to over 40 in May. To me that was unreal but when that disconnect...or ...departure from reality occurs and you fell like saying this thing will never go down because the lying will never stop ...THEN DUMP ALL OVER THEM. It always happens that way and always will . Hope this helps
I am only trading the Gold for a bouce here if you have the GLD look to get out on this rally. The DGP is just somehtin I use to leverage my trade. The truth is that we are probably going into a deflationary period and longer term I dont want to own gold . The DGP is jsut a trade "for the boys"
Brook
I am only trading the Gold for a bouce here if you have the GLD look to get out on this rally. The DGP is just somehtin I use to leverage my trade. The truth is that we are probably going into a deflationary period and longer term I dont want to own gold . The DGP is jsut a trade "for the boys"
I own gold and silver coins, mostly eagles and buffalos. My thought was to sell it in march or april. When you say long term would holding till march or april be "long term" in Mikey speak?
Thanks for the last post. I know LVS has major problems, massive debt, Vegas dead, Macau a joke. about 14 bil in junk debt.
Mikey
I own gold and silver coins, mostly eagles and buffalos. My thought was to sell it in march or april. When you say long term would holding till march or april be "long term" in Mikey speak?
Thanks for the last post. I know LVS has major problems, massive debt, Vegas dead, Macau a joke. about 14 bil in junk debt.
Folks, They have us trading Oil and Gold now. I think the real money is in shorting the market. I do this buy buying the DXD down 2.29 today at 60.34. The best buys come at the 90 day average. That would be about 58 now. If we get chance to buy it at 58 lets start to build a position To give you an analogy that would be like shorting LVS on its last rally to 60. The Gold and Oil should hold and try to rally for the short term.Gold is completing its top Oil has not just the first hit. The Market HAS TOPPED. I love the DXD long term 58 is a good place to load up for the next ride. By the way if it goes lower than 58 I will stay after it so don't ask me should I sell if it goes lower this is a big long term winner that they can't get me off of. It is not a trade like the DGP and DIG ..that is a short term trade the DXD is a position that we will kick their fat asses with
Folks, They have us trading Oil and Gold now. I think the real money is in shorting the market. I do this buy buying the DXD down 2.29 today at 60.34. The best buys come at the 90 day average. That would be about 58 now. If we get chance to buy it at 58 lets start to build a position To give you an analogy that would be like shorting LVS on its last rally to 60. The Gold and Oil should hold and try to rally for the short term.Gold is completing its top Oil has not just the first hit. The Market HAS TOPPED. I love the DXD long term 58 is a good place to load up for the next ride. By the way if it goes lower than 58 I will stay after it so don't ask me should I sell if it goes lower this is a big long term winner that they can't get me off of. It is not a trade like the DGP and DIG ..that is a short term trade the DXD is a position that we will kick their fat asses with
By the way Host you must be a hell of a nice guy to have put up with that crap. Gamblers are very eggocentric and so you must be egoless by now which I believe is a high achievement in life. As you can see I still have been unable to achieve that goal
By the way Host you must be a hell of a nice guy to have put up with that crap. Gamblers are very eggocentric and so you must be egoless by now which I believe is a high achievement in life. As you can see I still have been unable to achieve that goal
The buyout rumor on LEH is a standard ploy to run the shorts. When you see a buyout rumor on a stock this far gone DON'T BELIEVE IT. If you take a look at CFC at 16 on the first hit BAC was rumored as the buyer it bounced for 5 days to 25 then low and behold it did get bought out but at 5. That is what is going on at LEH. Dont be fooled . Give this stock about a week and go after it
The buyout rumor on LEH is a standard ploy to run the shorts. When you see a buyout rumor on a stock this far gone DON'T BELIEVE IT. If you take a look at CFC at 16 on the first hit BAC was rumored as the buyer it bounced for 5 days to 25 then low and behold it did get bought out but at 5. That is what is going on at LEH. Dont be fooled . Give this stock about a week and go after it
Thanks for the kind words, I grew up in my dads nightclub biz in NY. Was first comedy club in US. Talk about egos, so Im use to it.For most big players it's the swing d--k contest. I don't think I have a big ego, the crap I get is funny to me and I could care less, rolls off myback. I like the the DXD, Question, which would have more value, shorting the dow or s&p?.
You seem like a very nice guy. I like a guy that sticks with his decision. And the fact that you are willing to share your thoughts on the markets and answer questions. I don't think you have a big ego at all, so your getting to it.
Mikey
Thanks for the kind words, I grew up in my dads nightclub biz in NY. Was first comedy club in US. Talk about egos, so Im use to it.For most big players it's the swing d--k contest. I don't think I have a big ego, the crap I get is funny to me and I could care less, rolls off myback. I like the the DXD, Question, which would have more value, shorting the dow or s&p?.
You seem like a very nice guy. I like a guy that sticks with his decision. And the fact that you are willing to share your thoughts on the markets and answer questions. I don't think you have a big ego at all, so your getting to it.
I grew up during the days of Father Knows Best, so I am stuck with those values. I am a sucker for the little guy have had many fights in my life. Dont like bullys. What every I can do to help I will. Just keep asking the questions. The S & P double short is the SDS. Would start buying at around 62
I grew up during the days of Father Knows Best, so I am stuck with those values. I am a sucker for the little guy have had many fights in my life. Dont like bullys. What every I can do to help I will. Just keep asking the questions. The S & P double short is the SDS. Would start buying at around 62
My opinion ( I know this is mikey's thread and if he objects I wont comment more here) is that FSLR is a train wreck waiting to happen, but like others before it the time to see the wreck could span two years or more.
Check out a 5 yr chart on TZOO, the stock stayed at absurd levels for THREE years before finally breaking down. If you had a short not using margin, meaning add funds if it goes up and be willing to keep adding, the trade will work longer term, but who knows if it hits 400 before it implodes.
No doubt it is a crater waiting to happen..their margins are brutal and their price to sales and book are obscene. They arent floating stock and debt isnt high but still I think fair value is sub 100 on the stock longer term..maybe 50 or lower eventually.
jax,
My opinion ( I know this is mikey's thread and if he objects I wont comment more here) is that FSLR is a train wreck waiting to happen, but like others before it the time to see the wreck could span two years or more.
Check out a 5 yr chart on TZOO, the stock stayed at absurd levels for THREE years before finally breaking down. If you had a short not using margin, meaning add funds if it goes up and be willing to keep adding, the trade will work longer term, but who knows if it hits 400 before it implodes.
No doubt it is a crater waiting to happen..their margins are brutal and their price to sales and book are obscene. They arent floating stock and debt isnt high but still I think fair value is sub 100 on the stock longer term..maybe 50 or lower eventually.
Im still in DGP, With all of the gold and silver shortages and a shaky world economy I would this they would both move higher short term.
The buyout rumor on LEH is a standard ploy to run the shorts. When you see a buyout rumor on a stock this far gone DON'T BELIEVE IT. If you take a look at CFC at 16 on the first hit BAC was rumored as the buyer it bounced for 5 days to 25 then low and behold it did get bought out but at 5. That is what is going on at LEH. Dont be fooled . Give this stock about a week and go after it.......In this post what do you mean go after it?
Mikey
Im still in DGP, With all of the gold and silver shortages and a shaky world economy I would this they would both move higher short term.
The buyout rumor on LEH is a standard ploy to run the shorts. When you see a buyout rumor on a stock this far gone DON'T BELIEVE IT. If you take a look at CFC at 16 on the first hit BAC was rumored as the buyer it bounced for 5 days to 25 then low and behold it did get bought out but at 5. That is what is going on at LEH. Dont be fooled . Give this stock about a week and go after it.......In this post what do you mean go after it?
"The willingness and ability of Americans to come back into the housing market over the next few months will determine whether the U.S. economy experiences a mild downturn or the deepest recession in 30 years"
That's a very interesting take because the same folks said housing had nothing to do with the economy in 2006 and if you remember it was all about the world economy. The Market rallied into Jul of 2007 and double topped in OCT of 2007 because the world economy would carry us. Remember.
Well thye will do the same thing at the lows you will see housing taking off and they will say it doesn/t matter.There will be something going on at that time that screams at you not to buy the market like say ....a war or whatever.
Keep that in mind if you have the urge to buy something because its cheap. We have a long way to go before the bottom.
However, I'm thinking that after this oil rally ..if I'm right...we will rally to over 12000. Now is a very squirrelly time easy to get whipsawed
From CNBC this AM:
"The willingness and ability of Americans to come back into the housing market over the next few months will determine whether the U.S. economy experiences a mild downturn or the deepest recession in 30 years"
That's a very interesting take because the same folks said housing had nothing to do with the economy in 2006 and if you remember it was all about the world economy. The Market rallied into Jul of 2007 and double topped in OCT of 2007 because the world economy would carry us. Remember.
Well thye will do the same thing at the lows you will see housing taking off and they will say it doesn/t matter.There will be something going on at that time that screams at you not to buy the market like say ....a war or whatever.
Keep that in mind if you have the urge to buy something because its cheap. We have a long way to go before the bottom.
However, I'm thinking that after this oil rally ..if I'm right...we will rally to over 12000. Now is a very squirrelly time easy to get whipsawed
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