May Stock Talk IV

depeche,

I doubt it..you and I and maybe a few others, but most of these guys are kiddos and dont know our music.

That was from a "True Colors" tour, so within the last year or so..

As a weekend wrap up, a few technical notes I agree with...

The Dow ran into solid resistance at 13000, before retreating below 12750 to complete a small double top. The signal is confirmed by the S&P 500.
Long Term: Continuation of the primary advance, signaled by recovery above 13000, is now unlikely. Expect a test of primary support at 11750, especially if a retracement respects the new resistance level at 12750. A Twiggs Money Flow fall below -0.05 would threaten primary support.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 closed below short-term support at 1385, signaling the start of another correction and a likely test of primary support at 1270. A retracement that respects the new resistance level would confirm the signal. A Twiggs Money Flow fall below -0.05 would threaten primary support.

Transport

The Dow Transport index reversed at its July 2007 high, while Fedex is headed for a test of primary support at $82 — in response to rising oil prices.

A few questions to review at the end of the month of May.

1.Is it likely there will be a rebound of the housing market in the next 12 months?

2. Is it likely that the price of gasoline will go below $3.50 in the coming 12 months?

3. Any chance of a new administration lowering tax rates?

4.Any chance of unemployment numbers decreasing in the coming year?

5. Any prospect that the end of the ethanol boondoggle will occur in a new administration?

6. Any chance of oil drillers being allowed to drill where known deposits exist off the coasts of the US?

7. Any belief that the stimulus package will result in expected boost to economy? Or is it already virtually completely eroded by gas and grocery price increases?

8.Any appreciation of how damn close we came to losing World War II (last one a tip of the beverage to Memorial Day, men/women, wow do we owe you!!!!

 morally repugnant, fat, soft, 

 Well, now guys, it is not just the USA.

 In 1968 Charles de Gaulle remarked that Europe was the first civilization to have bred its own barbarians (referring to the rioters of the time).

 And it is bleak. But we have been in worse spots. However, we had better leaders around. When I think of FDR and Churchill, and contemplate Bush, and the Clinton mob, well, we have gone a long way down.

 Anyway, it was more of getting my bearings for domestic investment. The money will be made in Asia and the American companies who have strong international representation will do OK.

 Unfortunately, you can count on any administration to debase the currency and to make disastrous financial promises.

 Anyway...have a good one, and be careful out there.

Ive seen this market keep going and going and hanging in there, going on two plus years now. Part of me thinks I could be wrong regarding where the market should be, and part of me thinks the moment I give in and think it wont happen that the bottom will fall out and we will cave in down to 10k or lower on the DOW.

  The thing that disturbs me, is that one has to contemplate how radical the measures have been to keep it standing, Wall. As radical as those measures have been, the thing is wobbly, to say the least.
  I cannot see any cause for optimism regarding the American consumer. I would like to see some positive signs, but I do not see how the combination punch of lowering house prices, and rising gasoline prices equates to a strengthening of the domestic purse.
  I think we are going to see further layoffs, and the belt tightening that is being forced upon most is not going to provide cause for celebration.
  I am looking for a weak oversold rally, after which I am going to look again at SRS and TWM, among other shorts.Not sure, and treading lightly for the moment.

I don't know what your time horizon is, but I am 90%+ confident that you will do better in equities the next 25 years than you will in cash.

I don't think this is a wise move, but who knows.

I think some of you guys are excessively bearish.  We've been through (worse) crises before.

All respect intended, but you must be talking about the Great Depression of the '30s?  Yeah, and look what that did to us.  There hasn't been a backdrop (inflation, credit crises, soaring oil, leadership void) like this in close to 80 years, Depeche.

I also respectfully disagree on being cash vs equities now.  Why in the world do I want money to go down the drain sitting in equities when I can get in them at much, much, MUCH lower cost bases years from now?

Wall-  As you know, nothing in this market just unwinds overnight.  It takes time.  Your fears 2 years ago are just now becoming real......and we've only just begun, unfortunately. 

WE ARE FCKUED..........LET'S FACE IT!

Well DRYS sure has turned into a monster disaster.

No news, just a 30 pt drop.

Just like last time I keep nibbling.

Market turned a gain into a loss..looking pretty soft today so far.

good day for CRDC.  nice buy the other day, Wall

Gunners,

We have two more months before the FDA approval for the device, and I think it happens.

Then they can market it easier and the stock will start to move.

Interesting piece about that renown surgeon using the device and how strongly he felt about it.

If they were to get some marketing going and get some product penetration, this is a 50 buck stock, no doubt in my mind.. I am willing to wait it out a bit and see what happens.

I am not sure the history of the product, but this is their newest version and is approved in Europe. I would be shocked if they dont get the approval..in about 8 weeks.

Then I hope they make a huge push marketing and training wise and get the product in the hands of the surgeons doing the procedures.

I cannot remember the exact number but I recall that there are 500,000 procedures done a year in the US and the world is much more of course..and that is just bypass. There is hope that the product can be used for other purposes and that gives exponential hope for the stock price if that is the case.

Up 8 bucks today..

More to go..still oversold.

I want 200 plus.

Good luck with the OTM calls, I hope the stock hits 40 plus for you, which is possible.

Why the play on HANS in relation to BUD? I know their distribution pact but is there another reason for you, just group momentum?

wait, i'm totally fucked up.  haha.  i'm all confused.  whatever, i still like HANS no matter what these articles are saying about BUD

Gunners,

Yeah that would be crazy...BUD going to get bought out and for them to buy HANS in the middle of that would be crazy stuff.

My PEP friend gave me the impression the company isnt interested in acquisition to grow the energy business, plus like you say KO has a pact with HANS too (if I am remembering the deal) so I would say that KO would have more inclination but I dont see that either.

HANS needs to get its arms around COGS..last Q it was a little soft, expenses were up.