March Stock Talk I

fed injects 100b in 28 day repos

dear lord...we are in a bad bad place

75 basis point cut is priced in as well to fed funds futures

job report came in at -63000 jobs for feb

jobless rate ticked down though

the fed has this number the night before and they thought it was bad enough to announce 100b repos

Just think if the FED werent inflating and cutting, this market would be below 10k no doubt about it.

Even with all this, the market looks BRUTAL..just horrible.  

Absolutely Wall, which is what is scary.Artificial resuscitation not working, looks like economics has finally caught up with the Fed...

Oversold is a word that doesnt seem to mean much lately.

The more I see this action, the more it reminds me of 2002..slow steady selloff every single day.

I have the Scottrade market movers deal up and the new lows are spinning faster than I can read them on my screen, and I have the box maximized to full screen length..

There are some buys out there if you have a longer horizon..

BRCM at 17 is a great price.

If VLO goes into the high to middle 40s it is a buy as well.

CCJ and RIO are cheap..

Not sure the little guy can fight the waves of selling these firms and hedge funds are pouring, but if you can take a hit in the short term there are some bargains when the gun stops smoking.

wall - i spoke with a BIG hedge fund today...

something they are doing now is watching for rumored troubled firms...see what they are selling to meet margin calls, redemptions, etc and then trying to guess what they will sell next and shorting it before they can sell their longs knowing they will have a big boy leaning on the stock for the next month or two

That makes good sense Koaj.

I imagine the hedgies have volume tools that can show when blocks are being sold and when stocks have higher that average volume and then they can step in for the kill.

The bigger firms with cash issues are definately selling equities to raise cash, since some of the names going down have nothing to do with the issues in the economy.

GOOG down to a fresh 52 week low and still has an over 30 PE ratio. I think she can come in another 100 pts and still not be a fundamental buy. Book value at 72 per share, selling still at 8 times sales and 6 times book, that isnt cheap at all compared to some other stocks I follow.

Bot some CRDC at 6.60 today..

Havent sold any of my position, this is a longer term hold..a few yrs or more.

Thought you guys might find this article interesting-

I am a little shocked to read this

 This is going to happen, one way or the other:

"The housing market cannot be supported with those types of yields," he said. Gross said "the Fed needs to, in effect, buy the mortgage market," he said."


 

No Bailouts!!!

house prices need to get back to 2003 levels

Koaj,

In my area, they are just about there.

I was shocked to see Bill buying that kind of stuff since he comes off as ultra conservative.

If I could get good grade paper from regions that werent to the West then I think it is a good deal.

Buying paper from California/Arizona/Nevada/Washington etc and some in the East has a higher liklihood of default.

  not a bad idea

2003 levels

2003 levels

in NJ we have a little while to go

every house we see, i tell my wife take 25% off the top right away and that would be our top offer

usually i'll take more off depending on how long its been on the mkt

people i know just bought...got about 25% off OLP but the house is super gigantic on an acre. in NJ thats a ton of property

i still think they overpaid

negative equity

 Wall I recently read an article that stated that 99 per cent of Thornburg's paper was excellent stuff, but not if it had to be sold today. I think Gross probably got a fantastic deal on stuff that will turn out to be just fine.Just a guess though.
  As for no bailouts, I applaud the theory but recognize reality.It will come down as that in one way or the other...either pay now or pay later as far as the taxpayer is concerned.

 The week ends poorly.The stats and a commentary not my own, but with which I agree:

DJIA	11893.69	-146.70
	FTSE 100	5699.90	-66.50
	S&P 500	1293.37	-10.97
	HSI	22501.33	-841.40
	NASDAQ	2212.49	-8.01
	NIKKEI	12782.80	-432.62
	S&P 100	596.79	-4.69

The Dow broke support at 12000, signaling the start of another downward leg in the bear market. The medium-term target is 12000-(12800-12000)=11200. Twiggs Money Flow signals that short-term accumulation has ended and long-term selling pressure prevails.

Expect short-term support at the January intra-day low of 11650, but this is unlikely to hold. The S&P 500 confirms the Dow signal, with a break through support at 1300. The medium-term target is 1300-(1400-1300)=1200.

 

 I too will be adding when I next cash out of a small position.Let's hope it is just more than a profitless medical improvement!!

 I look for continuing weakness in the equities, and remain extremely cautious...

 WOW after Fed announcement SKF goes from 140 to 125 and headed south: seems you made a timely sale my friend!!

 While this announcement is certainly interesting due to th number of central banks, it also scares me a bit, hinting at how huge this disaster has become. I hope that this is more than a one day wonder and is sustainable. But it certainly makes me think some thoughts I'd rather not contemplate.

One commentator on Bill Gross:

On a related note, I was glad to hear someone is going to become rich from the Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) explosion (it is certainly not going to be me) - like a good vulture, he is passing along the site of a car accident which should not of happened, and stealing the jewelry off the fingers of the mortally injured. Wow, I thought their book of business was just a terrible disaster - so awful that all their banks need to call in their loans immediately; imagine that, the smartest bond manager in America wants to soak up this paper hand over fist. This is simply frustrating to watch this train wreck happen as it's all caused by impatient and frightened banks. Especially when they've let technically bankrupt home builders off the hook for quarters on end.