I know most will screech but I think it might be the kind of stock that gets me even on all my shit investments. TONS of insider buying too. IMB (indymac) only small portion of its loans are subprime the rest, they do have a lot of alt-a which i interpret to be loans based on credit score only and no docs.
All other numbers look pretty solid though...
Company Information (Provided by S&P)
Company Name
INDYMAC BANCORP INC
Sub-Industry
Thrifts & Mortgage Finance
Revenue
Total Revenue
$2.6 B
Fundamentals
Return on Equity
16.4%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Return on Assets
1.2%
Sales per Employee
$300
Debt-to-Equity
5.3
Returns and Risk
5-year Projected Earnings Growth
12%
Dividend Yield
8.0%
Beta
0.8
Asset Class
Small Cap
Valuation
Trailing P/E
5.7x
Forward P/E
9.0x
Price to Sales
0.7x
PEG Ratio
0.5
I know most will screech but I think it might be the kind of stock that gets me even on all my shit investments. TONS of insider buying too. IMB (indymac) only small portion of its loans are subprime the rest, they do have a lot of alt-a which i interpret to be loans based on credit score only and no docs.
Stop from looking at past balance sheet information, it really has little relevance.
If you had to buy a sub prime holder, THEY would be the one and that is a fact, but looking at rolling past 12 month figures is completely misleading. It is like looking at internet numbers after 2000-2001..the numbers dropped so bad that it was unreal.
Stock making some fresh new lows and I know as a percentage of their portfolio, the sub prime isnt very large, but they are LEVERAGED..they have 1.3B in revenues and 1.2B in cash with 12B in debt. So even if the sub prime is a small percentage of their portfolio, their debt rating is going to keep getting hit, the default rate is going higher and those assets on the books are going to be written down more and more and the bank is going to have more houses on their hands which arent earning money.
If you have a LONG LONG LONG LONG LONG horizion and buy the right companies, these opportunities can be awesome, but believe me there is no bargain with that stock..you are taking a ton of risk and the housing market in general could be in the dumps for another 5 yrs..
Revenue and profit numbers are going to get hit and defaults keep going up..its a scary time to own a lender..
Grinder,
Stop from looking at past balance sheet information, it really has little relevance.
If you had to buy a sub prime holder, THEY would be the one and that is a fact, but looking at rolling past 12 month figures is completely misleading. It is like looking at internet numbers after 2000-2001..the numbers dropped so bad that it was unreal.
Stock making some fresh new lows and I know as a percentage of their portfolio, the sub prime isnt very large, but they are LEVERAGED..they have 1.3B in revenues and 1.2B in cash with 12B in debt. So even if the sub prime is a small percentage of their portfolio, their debt rating is going to keep getting hit, the default rate is going higher and those assets on the books are going to be written down more and more and the bank is going to have more houses on their hands which arent earning money.
If you have a LONG LONG LONG LONG LONG horizion and buy the right companies, these opportunities can be awesome, but believe me there is no bargain with that stock..you are taking a ton of risk and the housing market in general could be in the dumps for another 5 yrs..
Revenue and profit numbers are going to get hit and defaults keep going up..its a scary time to own a lender..
BOOM DRIV AMGN HITT KLAC MCHP NTGR QLGC (I think it is a decent looking LONG at these prices) RVBD CROX (great potential here, right at strike price) RAIL
Tomorrows list..not that great so far-
BOOM DRIV AMGN HITT KLAC MCHP NTGR QLGC (I think it is a decent looking LONG at these prices) RVBD CROX (great potential here, right at strike price) RAIL
I like DRIV and NTGR but got burned once with DRIV pretty bad. I think CROX is the play. You wouldn't believe how many times a day I get people calling me for news, quotes etc on that one. I think its a "cramer" stock.
Thanks for taking a look at IMB good points.
I like DRIV and NTGR but got burned once with DRIV pretty bad. I think CROX is the play. You wouldn't believe how many times a day I get people calling me for news, quotes etc on that one. I think its a "cramer" stock.
CROX are those girl shoes, or sometimes guys where them too.
My wife got some knock off ones for like 10 bucks or something. I would go with just the puts but i'm so bad at guessing I think I better go with the straddle or strangle.
CROX are those girl shoes, or sometimes guys where them too.
My wife got some knock off ones for like 10 bucks or something. I would go with just the puts but i'm so bad at guessing I think I better go with the straddle or strangle.
These 17.50 calls on POZN are out of this world expensive. It is almost
worth buying the stock and selling the calls, then buying some OTM puts
for protection..
You could buy the shares (at 18 say) and sell the 17.50 calls for 3.70
a contract which makes your basis 14.30 and if you get called out you
make almost a 20% return..if not your basis is low.
Point being I see ZERO value in the 17.50 calls, they are good for sellers of the contract.
Big$$$,
These 17.50 calls on POZN are out of this world expensive. It is almost
worth buying the stock and selling the calls, then buying some OTM puts
for protection..
You could buy the shares (at 18 say) and sell the 17.50 calls for 3.70
a contract which makes your basis 14.30 and if you get called out you
make almost a 20% return..if not your basis is low.
Point being I see ZERO value in the 17.50 calls, they are good for sellers of the contract.
I should have been more patient on the FFIV calls, stock really bouncing and moving..most of my losses might have been recovered if I had waited a bit.
Market getting punked again..
I should have been more patient on the FFIV calls, stock really bouncing and moving..most of my losses might have been recovered if I had waited a bit.
Aghh too funny with NTGR, I put in limit orders on thursday before market close to pick up some calls only. I convinced myself that it was going higher. Didn't fill, thankfully. Also, got back $120 on my aapl puts (.30 each) I though for sure those were gonna be worthless.
Moving on, lots of interesting stuff out there...JCOM, RMBS, VECO, lots of them i've been wathching for a while getting cheap. Except DECK, whats up with these shoe makers?
Aghh too funny with NTGR, I put in limit orders on thursday before market close to pick up some calls only. I convinced myself that it was going higher. Didn't fill, thankfully. Also, got back $120 on my aapl puts (.30 each) I though for sure those were gonna be worthless.
Moving on, lots of interesting stuff out there...JCOM, RMBS, VECO, lots of them i've been wathching for a while getting cheap. Except DECK, whats up with these shoe makers?
Also bought some puts on VLO. Looking at last years chart, the stock started sliding right around August. Hoping for the same trend this year. Hoping they disapoint on 7/31
Also bought some puts on VLO. Looking at last years chart, the stock started sliding right around August. Hoping for the same trend this year. Hoping they disapoint on 7/31
Have you been following crack spreads over the past few months?
Crack spreads are what determine the profitability for VLO since they purchase sour crude and refine it..making the difference between the sour crude price and the refined products.
I have NEVER seen crack spreads this high, even now..but they were high for most of last quarter as gas prices went through the roof.
Right now crack spreads are 11, they were almost THIRTY not long ago.
VLO will have a STRONG quarter..I dont think that will mean the stock goes back to 75, but consider the 200 day moving average is within 2 bucks of current price.
The easy money was made when it broke the 50 day moving average and crashed..why I wasnt on top of it I have no idea. I didnt go against it because there was no triple top on the chart..higher highs and higher lows until it broke the 20/50 moving average. If one had gone against the stock on any break of the 20 but NOT the 50 you got nailed..since May.
I want to go LONG calls on the test of the 200 day. Keep in mind that the hurricane season is starting next month and I think this Q numbers are going to shock the street.
As for GIGM, it has been destroyed..you are buying the same falling knife that VLO is..I guess it could consolidate here but you are taking a big risk.
Pretty stupid I didnt hit VLO puts when the stock broke the 50..no excuses there..
Jeff,
You might want to rethink those puts.
Have you been following crack spreads over the past few months?
Crack spreads are what determine the profitability for VLO since they purchase sour crude and refine it..making the difference between the sour crude price and the refined products.
I have NEVER seen crack spreads this high, even now..but they were high for most of last quarter as gas prices went through the roof.
Right now crack spreads are 11, they were almost THIRTY not long ago.
VLO will have a STRONG quarter..I dont think that will mean the stock goes back to 75, but consider the 200 day moving average is within 2 bucks of current price.
The easy money was made when it broke the 50 day moving average and crashed..why I wasnt on top of it I have no idea. I didnt go against it because there was no triple top on the chart..higher highs and higher lows until it broke the 20/50 moving average. If one had gone against the stock on any break of the 20 but NOT the 50 you got nailed..since May.
I want to go LONG calls on the test of the 200 day. Keep in mind that the hurricane season is starting next month and I think this Q numbers are going to shock the street.
As for GIGM, it has been destroyed..you are buying the same falling knife that VLO is..I guess it could consolidate here but you are taking a big risk.
Pretty stupid I didnt hit VLO puts when the stock broke the 50..no excuses there..
Huricane season is june till early novemer I think. Looking at last years chart, the stock ran up ahead of hurricance season and then fell starting in August. I'll take my chances. Got a feeling here especiallly with a weak market, good earnings might not be good enough.
Huricane season is june till early novemer I think. Looking at last years chart, the stock ran up ahead of hurricance season and then fell starting in August. I'll take my chances. Got a feeling here especiallly with a weak market, good earnings might not be good enough.
Earnings bets in a weak or shaky market (two to four weeks out from earnings call) have ben a nice trend for me when I did trade more. Now that the market has taken a beating, I think it sets up nicely for some profitable trades on good companies that are to announce between now and Aug 15. Run a few screens off earnings calendars and then take a close look at what emerges. Hell, talking about trading makes me want to dust off some cash I have sitting and see what is out there. I think now is not necessarily time to get in, as a bounce then retracement seems a likely scenario, but selected issues may benefit from this volatility.GL...and f course, I like reading all ideas regarding short term trades (options) so if you have any please share. Glad I found this area of what I took to be just a sports gambling site.
Earnings bets in a weak or shaky market (two to four weeks out from earnings call) have ben a nice trend for me when I did trade more. Now that the market has taken a beating, I think it sets up nicely for some profitable trades on good companies that are to announce between now and Aug 15. Run a few screens off earnings calendars and then take a close look at what emerges. Hell, talking about trading makes me want to dust off some cash I have sitting and see what is out there. I think now is not necessarily time to get in, as a bounce then retracement seems a likely scenario, but selected issues may benefit from this volatility.GL...and f course, I like reading all ideas regarding short term trades (options) so if you have any please share. Glad I found this area of what I took to be just a sports gambling site.
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