Posted:
#1
JULY STOCK TALK II
Posted:
#2
Commentary from a noted market analyst and investor..
The U.S. economy
suffers from stagflation that’s going to get worse and may not end this
year or even next.
“We’re right in the middle of it right now,”
“I think the ‘flation’ part will heat up, and I think the ‘stag’ part will get worse.”
While didn’t cite the reasons for his pessimism, he has said elsewhere that the housing meltdown and sagging retail sales are dragging the economy down.
On other topics, he says the Federal Reserve is unlikely to have to bail out Lehman Brothers like it did Bear Stearns.
Posted:
#3
I guess the US stock market got a bye yesterday and wasn't able to sell off more. Exactly when a bad football team gets a bye week in NFL, and everyone picks them to lose to "bye."
I'd say this month could be cataclysmic, as I expect EVERY SINGLE financial insititution is going to throw in the towel on their state of business and write down everything that can possibly be written down.
But even with the write downs, can anyone with a brain imagine that any of them will make money in Q3? Probably not, but I guess their Q3 earnings will "maybe" be the ol' "not as bad as everyone feared." Ooyy yee vay. Not looking good at all.
BTW, did oil hit 150 rocks a barrel yesterday? If not, Morgan Stanley ought to string that icehole oil analyst up before showing him the door.
Maybe Monday will just not get here?
Posted:
#5
Tough to really say where next "support" is. Hate to say it, but it could be 800ish on SP 500 (2002/2003 lows).
That may be a little extreme, though. 800 to 1400 was the 2003-2007 rally, so you figure a 50% "correction" from that range would suggest an 1100 level on SP 500. Probably close, which means basically another 160 points of sell-off.
Not pretty, but let's face it, there is NOTHING which would make anyone feel positive.
I figure when the spot prices of gold and oil go down the crapper, that will be the last shoe to drop.
Then do we come off 1100? Yeah, some sort of "baragain hunting" rally for those who have cash. Then probably a re-test of that low (who knows when), and if we break support, then I'd say Great Depression Part II is upon us.
Scary.
My rec is all cash, "trading" only-----but gd be careful, nimble, and use stops, cause something like a terrorist attack or mid east full blown war involving Israel could really unleash hell on anyone long.
BOL
Posted:
#6
i'm sitting on a pretty significant amount of cash that i want to do something with. it's been earning next to nothing in a MMA for a while. i feel like i'm in a good position as i like to buy in times like this when everyone is so pessimistic but i'm worried about what might happen with iran and figure i still have plenty of time to get in while all the news is bad.
i'd like to put some of that money into a nice dividend paying stock, maybe something relatively safe like GE, or maybe something riskier like PFE, FRO or ACAS. any thoughts?
Posted:
#10
Be careful with APPL, Jax. This one is notorious for having its moves way before the fact.
If you get on those calls tomorrow and are in the money well enough on Wednesday, dump them. Manipulators will jack up the call prices for all the suckers buying before Friday.
You can make money on this, but no, not going to get rich. The iPhone is just a bunch of hype and hoopla.
Fade the hype by selling way before Friday.
Posted:
#21
That is initial requirement, but the maintenance requirements were usually 3 to 1 back before the meltdown.
And you are assuming margin and 50% right, so 4 to 1 meaning margin at 2 to 1 and a 50% initial requirement?
The effective change was maintenance requirement, and the ability to have the broker change it or the exchange change it due to volitility.
And you are assuming margin and 50% right, so 4 to 1 meaning margin at 2 to 1 and a 50% initial requirement?
The effective change was maintenance requirement, and the ability to have the broker change it or the exchange change it due to volitility.
Posted:
#23
Koaj,
Me too..clients would be bringing cash and wiring daily, then they ran out of cash and had to sell.
And the phone guys would be the ones who dealt with it and had to deal with the back office too for funding and requirements and sellouts etc.
Late 2001 was a real mess for OLB workers.
Man if they bring FRE or FNM down, it will be catastrophic for the real estate markets and the economy.
Me too..clients would be bringing cash and wiring daily, then they ran out of cash and had to sell.
And the phone guys would be the ones who dealt with it and had to deal with the back office too for funding and requirements and sellouts etc.
Late 2001 was a real mess for OLB workers.
Man if they bring FRE or FNM down, it will be catastrophic for the real estate markets and the economy.
Posted:
#24
wall - i was out of the OLBs by may 01. my place moved, commute got more expensive and no salary bumps were offered. i took the severance and ran
just got off the phone with a friend in the business who was just at his company's gym and knows the managing director of equities...
they got to talking and it was relayed to me like this
my friend "i just put in an offer on a house 25% below ask"
DoE "are you insane? they are down 15% from their heights and will be down another 50% next year. pull your offer right now"
the DoE has been in the mkt since 1982 and is often on tv as a guest commentator
just got off the phone with a friend in the business who was just at his company's gym and knows the managing director of equities...
they got to talking and it was relayed to me like this
my friend "i just put in an offer on a house 25% below ask"
DoE "are you insane? they are down 15% from their heights and will be down another 50% next year. pull your offer right now"
the DoE has been in the mkt since 1982 and is often on tv as a guest commentator
Posted:
#25
Sounds similar to my situation in Philly.
When the market started to contract, the parent company of my firm decided to close all outer offices and have everyone truck into Philly and work. I also declined and took the package. At the time I was working in BrynMawr and going to Philly with parking and the city wage tax and extra time it would be like taking a 10k paycut to keep the job, so I left.
I think the prices in the east havent come down nearly as to what they have out here. I keep track of some zips in Philly and the suburbs and pricing hasnt come down enough at all, especially when out here the pricing is almost down to 2002 levels already.
When the market started to contract, the parent company of my firm decided to close all outer offices and have everyone truck into Philly and work. I also declined and took the package. At the time I was working in BrynMawr and going to Philly with parking and the city wage tax and extra time it would be like taking a 10k paycut to keep the job, so I left.
I think the prices in the east havent come down nearly as to what they have out here. I keep track of some zips in Philly and the suburbs and pricing hasnt come down enough at all, especially when out here the pricing is almost down to 2002 levels already.
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