El Nino to bring Nov rain??Trading fun with DGAZ and more!!

So was the massive convertible offering why OMER is down so much or was it something in the earnings report?

That's my guess..not 100% just waking up after having worked all night and driving home from Cleveland.Will listen to call this evening.From what I've read seems like offering/loan terms not horrible for share holders and Omidria sales for Oct were 80% of their best month ever,add to that field letter of intent to file for full approval from EMA.Waiting game continues for Omer

If that DGAZ didnt have so much decay I would consider going long here...but look at the chart its at multi year lows and that isnt because of the price of crude, this thing decays like UVXY does, so the move has to be large to get it to budge, you are fighting against decay and that decay never stops.

Id even be tempted to open a futures acct and try some long crude but that is even more leverage and more risk than this DGAZ is.

Same goes for the 3X long crude, its on the same death march down due to decay..so even when the underlying moves up that move is not 3X correlated because of that decay and churn due to always having to buy and sell futures contracts/options (whichever applies as per the prospectus).

Yeah it's just non stop drop at this point..where is the top for winter is the question.Im just gonna let that trade sit.No reason to think this turns here $4 in crosshairs now.I knew once storage and weather didnt move it my way it was doomed.

Even when crude was up earlier the ETF wasnt going in the right direction. I seem to remember when it got closer and closer to a big expiry then the selling on these leveraged contract based ETFs increase more than usual.

Made a bit of coin off DWT today hoping it continues as I didnt have the chance to close trade before EOD...

So that article from seeking alpha was helpful, I was unaware that power companies have been switching from coal to NG and that is making the futures move like this. If you notice the forwards are not staying high for long, the move is not seen as long term and the market is anticipating a return to the 2s by spring. I still dont see how even with power companies switching that it changes the long term picture of NG...we have and will continue to have a massive glut of NG, so maybe this is also in part due to shorts covering and going long and it being more of a speculative reason because I dont see how the supply will drop to any large degree for a very long time even with a switch from power generators.

Yeah I read one too..says this spike and short on storage couldve easily been avoided if NG was merely 10% higher for spring/summer.

I dunno...too much lower and Canada will start adjusting, they are running production at massive losses now and the environmental abusing frackers are going to start reeling if oil stays here...even with the forwards locked in they wont last forever and some counter-party buyers might force renegotiating of terms if prices drop much more.

What a wacky market...some rumors of a Brexit blah blah and they bounce it 300 pts in a few minutes.

Need smaller moves in U/Dgaz..now Ugaz under $40 away from where move started $77ish while Dgaz is under $5 and was near $14 when this began.Not good

R/S on DGAZ Nov 26th 20 to 1..

https://youtu.be/-qGvPRX270A

Oil gonna run now?? KSA surely to cut with the last few days events right??

This NG action reminds me of shorts being squeezed, there might be a few leveraged firms out there that are right at their breaking point and the market is sniffing out these leveraged folks and lets see where it leads. I dont see this as a supply demand move at all.

Most def not Wall

Crude fighting with 50 handle now..if this goes another slide to 47 prob in the cards.I know 40 still a ways off but would love to see it I'd load up at that point

In and out of Ugaz on the clear break of 155..wanted to hold tonight but with report tomorrow I will see how it goes overnight and then hop in.

NG down pre market so far, will wait for report and go with whatever side it favors no preference just go with flow today

Bearish report not much reaction, dont want to hold Dgaz overnight here but I just might 51.70 entry

Not a very profitable trade but I'm not holding over the weekend..will watch Sunday and see which way things are going.Crude and NG trading a pretty small range last several days,any predictions on the direction of either?

I gotta think lower vs higher...none of the players are trying to defend and prop price of crude. In the past the Saudis or Russia would start loosely throwing out production cut talk to stop the drop but none are doing that. I also dont get how the US shale players are not trying to slow down given that their margins are pretty much gone now and many are running production at a loss at this level.

Seems crude supply glut wont go away anytime soon,demand expected to be lower while supply just keeps surging.

OMER news out this morning,looks like they got a couple heavy hitters to join the team.Do folks leave companies like that for empty promises or do they see some writing on the wall??

Missed that dip under 130 in Ugaz earlier got a small position at 134..we will see how this goes.