Crypto thread

Hopefully BTC holds 8500 and alts start to rip. BSV up 100% today and I have no idea why. 

Detox. I don't know how anyone thinks they know when a correction is coming. When Trump was initially elected the markets dropped 1000 points in the pre market trading. Every expert on every investment related channel predicted that the markets would go down to into bear market territory with Trump at the helm. I have family members that got spooked and sold everything.

I told them the same thing I tell everyone. YOU CAN NOT TIME THE MARKETS. IT'S TIME IN THE MARKETS THAT MATTERS. I preached and preached and all of my family members got back in but missed 20% to the upside. 

The only thing that you got correct is that a correction will come. Will the market add another 20% plus before the correction? Another 25%? Only 10%? Who knows? Further, when the correction comes you will have to have the stomach to buy a market that is down and make another difficult decision. The odds of making two decisions perfectly is small. Also keep in mind that when you sell, you give up your income stream (capital distributions and dividends). This loss of 3% puts even more pressure for you to make the correct "sell off" and "risk on" decisions. 

I have been at this a long time and I know timing the market is a losers game.

It seemed pretty easy to know when the bottom of the stock market and housing market was. This top looks just as easy. Let’s say it climbs another 10% and then drops 35%, was I right or was I right? 

Cardano

Bitcoin

Gold 

Cash 

Pre Halving 1: +663% 

Post Halving 1: +3400% 

Pre Halving 2: +383% 

Post Halving 2: +4080% 

Most of Bitcoins growth as the result of the halving occurs after the halving. 

The 3rd halving is coming May 12, 2020 

Detox. Obviously if it goes 10% up and 35% down you will look like a genius. What if it goes 35% and 10% in reverse? 

To say it looks "easy" is just using statistics to validate your desires. Warren Buffett advises that people not try to time the markets because it's mostly a guessing game. Everyone can look back in hindsight and say timing the market is easy. What matters is what happens moving forward. 

When arguably the best investor in the world holds a $128 Billion cash position. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position was $23 Billion in 2009.  

It appears to me that he is trying to time the market. 

Or am I missing something here? 

I guess like all things Detox, we will wait and see. 

Obviously, a correction is coming eventually. They always do. 

I read this somewhere recently (can't quote the source but it's likely you heard it). Over the past 5 decades, if you missed the biggest 25 up days along with the 25 biggest down days in the markets trying to time the markets, you would be underperforming the s&p index by nearly 1000%. 

Your strategy sounds better in theory rather than in practice. 

I don't know if I would go so far as to say Buffett is timing the market ; it is more him acknowledging that the market is expensive and he can't find any bargains out there to buy.  He has even written about this latter point in recent months. Keep in mind Buffett's businesses generate huge amounts of cash, so the huge cash pile is generated by the businesses,  not him selling stock

Also, it would help if Berkshire paid a dividend to his shareholders.   That would help wittle away at the huge cash pile.  He is getting heat from a fair amount of investors about him just sitting on a cash pile that earns next to nothing 

Cardano 0.043 

Bitcoin 8,450 

Gold oz 1,573

— — — 

Dow Jones 28,989

SPY 328.77

Cardano 0.048

Bitcoin 9,040

Gold oz 1,584 

— — — 

Dow Jones 28,535

SPY 323.50

I will say that this just might be the most fascinating thread on this entire site. I might look like a genius in predicting that Bitcoin would trade between 6-10k for such a long time....but I might look like a fool if the experts predictions of 100k ever come true. 

Bitcoin may truly be the most unpredictable asset ever created. 

Bitcoin creeping higher and higher into the neighborhood of 10K. 

This is going to be really interesting.

Tesla up to $650 after hours?

Amazon up 11+% after hours to 2,086?

Shooting star monthly SPY candle 

Cardano 0.053 

Bitcoin 9,350 

Gold oz 1,582 

— — — 

Dow Jones 28,256 

SPY 321.73 

Stock market in China drops 9% after open 

China’s central bank will inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($174 billion) 

Buy Bitcoin 

3,257 of the 4,000 stocks in Shanghai dropped 10%, the daily limit. 

Got a bag of COTI at $0.011 

BTC

Cardano

Coti 

Gold 

I would short TSLA here. Too much of a pain in the ass to do but I think that would be a win. 

Currently $721.00 

Detox. It's mindboggling how TSLA was $178 just 6 months ago. 100 shares would have made $58,000 in profits. I agree with you on the idea of shorting it but think about how many people shorted it after the last run up? They got squashed like a bug on the windshield. This thing is moving so fast I'm sure it's ripple effect is creating a ton of margin calls. 

NOW at $758. 

TSLA went parabolic. Top buyers will lose tons of money. 

Yeah TSLA is A SUB 50 buck stock but most will not be in the game to see it. I just shake my head and watch them scorch the shorts and then reverse it.

TSLA is at $850 pre market