Currently, the reward for mining a block is 12.5 Bitcoins. In May the reward drops to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.
An average of 144 blocks are mined per day. Approximately 1,800 bitcoins (12.5 x 144) are rewarded everyday. Or $18,000,000 (1800 x 10,000) worth of Bitcoin.
In May this will be cut down to 900 bitcoins rewarded everyday. Or $9,000,000 worth of bitcoin.
To hold $10,000 per BTC the market has to absorb $18,000,000 worth of bitcoin being rewarded everyday.
When this number drops to only $9,000,000 that needs to be absorbed it only makes sense that the price of bitcoin will rise substantially. Quantitative Easing vs Qualitative Tightening.
This has happened twice before. In 2012 the price rose about 8,000%. And in 2016 the price rose around 2,000%.
It will most likely happen after the halving.
Currently, the reward for mining a block is 12.5 Bitcoins. In May the reward drops to 6.25 Bitcoins per block.
An average of 144 blocks are mined per day. Approximately 1,800 bitcoins (12.5 x 144) are rewarded everyday. Or $18,000,000 (1800 x 10,000) worth of Bitcoin.
In May this will be cut down to 900 bitcoins rewarded everyday. Or $9,000,000 worth of bitcoin.
To hold $10,000 per BTC the market has to absorb $18,000,000 worth of bitcoin being rewarded everyday.
When this number drops to only $9,000,000 that needs to be absorbed it only makes sense that the price of bitcoin will rise substantially. Quantitative Easing vs Qualitative Tightening.
This has happened twice before. In 2012 the price rose about 8,000%. And in 2016 the price rose around 2,000%.
So you are saying cutting the supply and decreasing the reward will increase demand? I basically disagree with everything that you believe. With such a predictable sequence of events (halving events) I would tend to believe that speculation should already be priced in.
Further, this is the FIRST halving event with actively traded futures going on. It's hard for me to believe how the tremendously significantly futures market isn't being contemplated by Bitcoin bulls in regard to the upcoming halving event?
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
So you are saying cutting the supply and decreasing the reward will increase demand? I basically disagree with everything that you believe. With such a predictable sequence of events (halving events) I would tend to believe that speculation should already be priced in.
Further, this is the FIRST halving event with actively traded futures going on. It's hard for me to believe how the tremendously significantly futures market isn't being contemplated by Bitcoin bulls in regard to the upcoming halving event?
The supply of dollars is increasing. More dollars are put into circulation than ever before. Roughly — A dollar has never been worth less in its history.
The supply of bitcoin is also increasing. Less bitcoin is being put into circulation than ever before. Roughly — A bitcoin has never been worth more in its history.
Dollars are used to buy bitcoin.
Maybe you are right.
Or
Maybe you’ll really regret not buying bitcoin.
The supply of dollars is increasing. More dollars are put into circulation than ever before. Roughly — A dollar has never been worth less in its history.
The supply of bitcoin is also increasing. Less bitcoin is being put into circulation than ever before. Roughly — A bitcoin has never been worth more in its history.
I don't pretend to know everything and there is a lot I can and will learn in the future. Bitcoin included.
Interesting that you mention the dollar, however. I was in my car a short while ago and they were talking on CNBC how the Coronavirus is driving the dollar higher. They were speculating that the longer the virus goes, the higher the dollar will go.
As far as regret, up to this point as long as you are not in cash or CD's you are winning. The s&p, QQQ, the Dow Jones, Bitcoin, alt. crypto....doesn't matter. You're making money.
I am convinced I will never regret not owning Bitcoin. So far, for as many years as this thread has gone on, I have been spot on about Bitcoin. When it was being touted at $19,000, I said sell. When it hit $4,000 I said to buy and sell at $10,000. If I had only taken my own advice???....oh well, there's more than one way to skin a cat.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
I don't pretend to know everything and there is a lot I can and will learn in the future. Bitcoin included.
Interesting that you mention the dollar, however. I was in my car a short while ago and they were talking on CNBC how the Coronavirus is driving the dollar higher. They were speculating that the longer the virus goes, the higher the dollar will go.
As far as regret, up to this point as long as you are not in cash or CD's you are winning. The s&p, QQQ, the Dow Jones, Bitcoin, alt. crypto....doesn't matter. You're making money.
I am convinced I will never regret not owning Bitcoin. So far, for as many years as this thread has gone on, I have been spot on about Bitcoin. When it was being touted at $19,000, I said sell. When it hit $4,000 I said to buy and sell at $10,000. If I had only taken my own advice???....oh well, there's more than one way to skin a cat.
Gold is flying higher with the markets down over 4% in a day and a half of trading. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is down 6% in the same time period. It's obviously not the choice for investors seeking safety. Will it ever be?
My theory of selling at 10K holds for seemingly the 10th time.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
Gold is flying higher with the markets down over 4% in a day and a half of trading. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is down 6% in the same time period. It's obviously not the choice for investors seeking safety. Will it ever be?
My theory of selling at 10K holds for seemingly the 10th time.
This Warren Buffet stuff will be looked back on the same way we look at Matt Lauer and Katie Couric talking about the internet in 1995 on the Today show
This Warren Buffet stuff will be looked back on the same way we look at Matt Lauer and Katie Couric talking about the internet in 1995 on the Today show
Gold dips a bit, not because investors don’t like gold, but because weak hands need to pay margin calls on stocks? Gold is liquid (mostly ETFs). Pretty soon it’s a big buy for strong hands.
Thoughts?
Wallstreet,
Gold dips a bit, not because investors don’t like gold, but because weak hands need to pay margin calls on stocks? Gold is liquid (mostly ETFs). Pretty soon it’s a big buy for strong hands.
Yeah that is likely the reason, to free up funds for lowering leverage or margin calls but in seriousness there is no correlation to gold and risk off...thats an excuse used. The real benefactor of risk off is bonds...bonds have been charging much more than gold has for the last several years.
Even with this "move" gold is severely lagging all asset classes and for good reason. I get a chuckle reading clowns like Shiff who are selling their book day in and out trying to conn people about fiat currency going away and gold being the end winner. He is talking his investments and he shades his facts. Fiat is not some stand alone entity, the price of dollars is relative to other currencies and the strength of the economies behind the currencies UNLESS one is doing something different than all the others..So Japan has been trapped in QE land a long time and they are considered a safe haven because everyone knows their CB will back them with QE no matter what. Other currencies are relatively stronger or weaker depending on their economy and their CB. Shiff loses me when he forgets to properly inform and is talking his book and that makes him unreliable...much like all gold talkers.
Yeah that is likely the reason, to free up funds for lowering leverage or margin calls but in seriousness there is no correlation to gold and risk off...thats an excuse used. The real benefactor of risk off is bonds...bonds have been charging much more than gold has for the last several years.
Even with this "move" gold is severely lagging all asset classes and for good reason. I get a chuckle reading clowns like Shiff who are selling their book day in and out trying to conn people about fiat currency going away and gold being the end winner. He is talking his investments and he shades his facts. Fiat is not some stand alone entity, the price of dollars is relative to other currencies and the strength of the economies behind the currencies UNLESS one is doing something different than all the others..So Japan has been trapped in QE land a long time and they are considered a safe haven because everyone knows their CB will back them with QE no matter what. Other currencies are relatively stronger or weaker depending on their economy and their CB. Shiff loses me when he forgets to properly inform and is talking his book and that makes him unreliable...much like all gold talkers.
At this point I can safely assume that Bitcoin is not the flight to quality that it has been assumed that it was. Gold soared on Monday and Tuesday and is up another 5 bucks today. Nothing earth shattering but money is going into gold in a steady trickle all week.
Draper is delusional when he gets in front of a microphone or camera predicting $250,000 Bitcoin in two years. It's simply absurd. I still am highly skeptical about this halving episode in May occuring with active futures trading for the first time ever. No one predicting another double in BTC has yet to truly address the presence of active futures trading.
Wall....I would love to hear your opinion on this upcoming halving episode and the cause/effect of futures trading that now exists.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
At this point I can safely assume that Bitcoin is not the flight to quality that it has been assumed that it was. Gold soared on Monday and Tuesday and is up another 5 bucks today. Nothing earth shattering but money is going into gold in a steady trickle all week.
Draper is delusional when he gets in front of a microphone or camera predicting $250,000 Bitcoin in two years. It's simply absurd. I still am highly skeptical about this halving episode in May occuring with active futures trading for the first time ever. No one predicting another double in BTC has yet to truly address the presence of active futures trading.
Wall....I would love to hear your opinion on this upcoming halving episode and the cause/effect of futures trading that now exists.
So do you think the presence of futures trading is meaningless?
I do agree with you that I would have viewed his 2017 prediction was absurd and I was dead wrong. However, my viewpoint is this would be akin to lightening striking twice. It happened to Lee Trevino so it's not impossible.
At least we can now agree now that it's not currency.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
So do you think the presence of futures trading is meaningless?
I do agree with you that I would have viewed his 2017 prediction was absurd and I was dead wrong. However, my viewpoint is this would be akin to lightening striking twice. It happened to Lee Trevino so it's not impossible.
At least we can now agree now that it's not currency.
Yeah there is no correlation to halving and futures trading, futures you buy a spot either long or short and ride it up or down...the underlying demand and supply can move the futures markets but I outside the physical impact the futures wont change.
Nice bounce and some buying has come in across all the coins the last hour or so.
Yeah there is no correlation to halving and futures trading, futures you buy a spot either long or short and ride it up or down...the underlying demand and supply can move the futures markets but I outside the physical impact the futures wont change.
Nice bounce and some buying has come in across all the coins the last hour or so.
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