My thought on the halfing is that this will really tick off people who spent millions to get equipment and now will be shafted, as will the chip makers and equipment makers. So the price will either come down as demand drops due to people no longer trading when they mine or the alts will get destroyed because when bitcoin mining slows, so will the mining for alts since many alts convert to bitcoin and back and forth. If the equipment no longer makes a profit (and you can check the profit calc tools now and most dont even at this level) this will chase many from that chip type and off to another.
Maybe down the road the alts which utilize other chips might be ok but also the spreads might widen and vol will drop and volatility will increase.
Its not until March right?
I must disagree with your premise Wall. Everyone knows exactly when the halving is taking place. Anyone investing serious money in bitcoin mining surely has taken the halving into account in their business plan.
It's not exactly the type of business where you fly by the seat of your pants so to speak.
There is a site that shows profitability for all the different graphics cards that exist and none have great margins now..the only way to make money is to get free elec and still even with that the margins are not great, now they are going to be cut in half?
The halving will remove a massive percentage of middle to low end guys, the only ones who will survive are those with free elec and huge scale. Maybe this will spur card makers to up their game, that or the non-BTC cards will be more popular and the crowds will move strongly to those. The downside is that the off-BTC miners are few and you take risks mining coins like GRIN (go to asicminervalue . com) the numbers are lousy.
I agree with all of your points. However, I believe even the smallest players incorporated the halving process in their business plans. What they could not prepare for was Bitcoin itself stagnating price wise.
They all probably believed the experts predicting 100k and greed got them hooked.
Not sure how you can incorporate a halving without taking a huge hit or just running at a loss to stay in the game. The only options are to run at a loss, get free elec or have a card that doubles the capacity for the same price as current cards...which is not going to happen.
People who have paid off their cards might be able to squeak it out since you are running without replacement but that is a losing game given that these cards decline in productivity over time.
I’ve watched countless videos, closely monitored crypto twitter for a few years, monitored everyone involved with cardano from Charles Hoskinson, to the developers, to the partnerships (like McCann), to the people running nodes on the testnet. I think it’s a massive project that has been done the correct way and with integrity.
Time will tell.
ADA releases their mainnet with smart contracts this year, McCann does its job advertising, they get listed on coinbase along with staking (like Tezos), ... it should scale properly and be more decentralized than any other of the top projects by far. I think it could push towards Ethereums market cap numbers during the last bull run ($100 billion+).
Yoroi’s mobile wallet is simple and easy. It seems to me that they get it. They understand that this stuff needs to be user friendly.
This isn’t based on charts or any kind of TA. Just going with my gut after watching the space very closely for the last 3 years.
There is too much supply on ADA to think it is going to be a big hit...it takes hundreds of thousands bought to move it now, if you watch a chart on it and see the volume its obvious this is a bloated penny stock...meaning it would have a market cap the size of BTC to move it to 25 cents. I am exaggerating a little but the float is just too large.
Think of relative performance and what vehicle your $$$$ will best perform, not how many you can own. Looking at the move from 1 buck to 3 cents relative to Ether or BTC or LTC, that should give you a guide on what should happen with a market move overall. The only ways that should be different is if the float declines, there is some sort of shift happens with ADA or some kind of technical change happens like if some chip maker specializes in ADA, something like that.
The reason I asked the first question is because there must be an edge to why you would want ADA other than a general market sentiment move because it has dramatically under performed the market and the float seems to be enormous so a move to 1 buck from here would likely mean more float and under performance.
Its kind of the reason why I was saying that SHMP stock is fighting an uphill battle, the float is always going up and the value of your ownership goes down.
I'd rather own something like LTC vs ADA or XLM..the floats are way too large.
I think Proof of Stake will be the eventual winner. Bitcoin and Ethereum (Proof of Work - mining) can’t scale. Ethereum is in the process of trying to switch over to POS. This is why Charles Hoskinson (early BTC —> Ethereum co-founder) went out to start Cardano. And he also knew that it needs to be right from the beginning, you can’t go back and change the foundation. He has a bunch of videos online and I’m sure he can answer your question better than I can. If you DM him on twitter he might even respond. I’ll look around for a video.
I get your point. But the float is always going up in POW coins like BTC or LTC as they’re being mined. No?
LTC - circulating supply is 64,000,000 and the max supply is 84,000,000
BTC - circulating supply is 18,000,000 and the max supply is 21,000,000
ADA - circulating supply is 26,000,000, total supply is 31,000,000, and max supply is 45,000,000
Not sure what the ‘total supply’ actually means here ....
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