Anyone playing NATURAL GAS?

I knew I had a simpleton mindset with NG. I still don't understand how it couldn't go back up eventually as long as you give it enough time though.

Is the US going to allow $2 a gallon gas forever? It feels like it'll be back to 3 at least within the next 6 months.

UGAZ tanked today and is back to $8.41. Isn't it inevitable that it will go back up eventually?

I feel like I'm going to look back at this post 1 year from now and it's going to be $17 a share, or 100% profit.

This didn't just happen overnight though did it? Did a month ago all of a sudden we went double time and started producing more gas or started to need it less?

Serious question, because I'm slowly getting informed here.

So long story short, I bought in at 8.20, and within 48 hours it was at $9.25. My target sell price was $9.50, but I had to bank the gain to offset a capital loss by the end of 2014, so I ended up selling at $9.00. I wanted to hit my target price, so I bought back immediately and hoped to ride it a little bit higher.

So those of you that have been following know that UGAZ has had a complete and utter collapse in the past month. It has been ugly. I have continually averaged down as the price as dropped, but I'm in a dangerous spot right now.

This was a really simple minded investment when I first got in. I thought that the initial drop was an overreaction from warmer winter temps, and once we had a chilly week with bad forecasts it would go back up. That was a completely false assumption, and supply and demand concerns have crippled UGAZ. The US is producing oil and natural gas at record rates right now.

As of today, UGAZ is $2.74.

I'm sitting on an average of $6.75, so it would have to more than double for me to break even. I'm crossing my fingers that it goes up next week with colder temps, but I've seen that even a week of blizzards can't make this thing go up. I was down 15k within 2 weeks of buying this piece of crap.

I bought most of my shares on margin. I've paid back some, but owe about $25k of margin on my $37,000 investment. I'm paying about $200 of interest per month on this debt.

Some would say that I should just hold into next winter and hope the situation shakes out. The issue with this is that UGAZ is a 3x leveraged ETN that suffers from decay.

I haven't been able to find any calculations on decay, or easy way of find out what it could be over the long term, but I know it's there. I'm not sure if it's as severe, but I kind of relate it to the rake in a poker game. The longer you stay in, the more money comes off the table.

One article I read said that the decay can cost an investor as much as 30% over a year in extreme cases. This ETN has such wild swings that it could be one of those extreme cases.

I would appreciate advice from anyone with experience with decay, leveraged ETNs, and the short and long term future of natural gas.

I've lost over $20k on a $37,000 invest in just the past month and half, and I'm desperate for advice right now. I'm really stubborn to sell, because then I would have no shares, no hope, and a $20k margin bill to pay off.

Thanks in advance. Jokingly, I probably should have stuck with sports betting this season instead at this point. The 20 grand would have lasted longer.

Thanks that is helpful to know. The 3x leveraged Oil ETN was up 20% today, while gas was down.

All I ever hear is that "oil and gas are directly related, but don't follow paths exactly." It never goes beyond that.

I had put a tiny bit of thought into switching from gas to oil for a recovery, but it feels like gas's swings are more swift. Though both declining, oil has been a slow decline. With the decay involved in trading these ETNs I'm hoping it can go back up as quickly as it went down.

UGAZ hit a high of $5.40 2 weeks ago, but has lost 50% of it's value when not much has changed other than it snowed heavily on the east coast this week, and the week prior to hitting $5.40.

'Slam...  I'm hoping your fortunes change here , as many other folks that bought much higher here with UGAZ.

If there's one thing I learned over the years, it's that performance is usually  a contrarian indicator to investor activity... For example,  Go look at the activity of this thread over the last couple of months, and it will tell you that UGAZ is in the toilet !!   

 Unfortunately, most folks are momentum folks and have no idea as to the fundamentals of any investment idea.   The one-year chart on UGAZ suggest it is trying to place  a bottom, and I have already laid the groundwork why it should go higher long-term.    It is a wild beast, but this could pay off handsomely in years ahead.

As a final note guys.. Please... gamble your money with sports.. but keep your other money with "investments".   If you're gonna play with this stuff, please.. know what you're getting yourselves into. 

BUY.

HOw is that working out for ya. THat huge loss, or your the extra pundit that posts to get others to buy.

Or, did you take the loss after listening to the guys tell you what a great trade it would be ?

It will continue to fall, then split because people continue to buy it...

Bro, these boards are all part of the "SETUP".. You buy it, they short it...

I have no problem holding for a year if I have to, but with this ETN it decays on a daily basis. How much is a mystery.

I was going to buy more today, but I feel it has on more 10 cent dip or so left for tomorrow. With the trade I'll average down to 5 finally from an initial investment at 9.

The margin is ticking though, but I really have no choice here.

I hope this doesn't end up like when I kept betting N Illinois vs. Russell Wilson when he was at Wisconsin. They won like 70-14. It was ugly.

Nah, I don't think the people that post here are pumpers. They're typically just playing the risky stocks that are high risk, high reward. Just another form of gambling.

There's this thread that's buried in this forum about stock picks from a couple of years ago. I kept track of some of them. Out of like 7 or 8, three went bankrupt, three are down, and one is up I think. Not good odds.

The sick part is that the market has been in a ridiculous bull market for years now. You buy all the obvious crap, the high flyers, you make tons of money.

Apple, Home Depot, Chipotle. Heck even Blackberry is up in the past year or so.

Yet I'm sitting here getting murdered by POS UGAZ cuz I wanted to make a couple grand. Might as well have been betting.

The second Dallas/Philly game I knew Dallas was a lock after getting embarrassed on Thanksgiving. Instead I tried to make 2500 on UGAZ and lost my @ss.