Anyone playing NATURAL GAS?

Hi all;
With cold winter forecasted isn't this kind of a no brainier? Isn't this issue "ETN" just dependent on weather and building up inventories which can be lower or higher than expected and that sets price?
But in essence it's really just dependent on weather right? Am I missing anything here? Lots and lots of people using Natural gas for heating right? Ain't it guaranteed to go up with cold forecasted
Winter!??
Thanks in advance for all commentary here to help me figure this out!

Diver ??

It has to be colder than expected.  Utilities stock up on gas throughout the year for the winter based on estimates.

Up $3 today (20%); holy crap!!!
Wish I had it now!!!!

UGAZ is the issue I'm talking about by the way

Entered at 13.41 and watched it drop to 10 now riding her back up,,will bail at 26....she hit 40 last year with the polar vortex freezing the entire fkn country

Inventories are 12% below last years level and the cold weather last week freaked everybody out hence the massive bull run and shes probably hitting 19 tomorrow(friday),,,i would caution these 3X etf's can get hairy so wouldnt play with rent/grocery money if you are unfamiliar with them....on a technical basis GASL is oversold but i cant pull the trigger, something about that etf makes me wary as it seems to run with oil and not NG

Sashimi kid,

RD,, i added a lil on the pullback this morning,,its pretty much blue skies to 27 so its up to you on entry price...i do have a stop at 16.55 in case of pullback but would rebuy at a lower price as it looks like a cold winter is a brewin'......GASL having huge technical bounce today so shame on me for not following my convictions

Sashimi;
Ty for your that and GASL really moved like you said. The funny thing is both you and I spoke about UGAZ and GASL and 1 day later they made big moves :-0!
Look at time stamps on both our posts .

took 16.55 off the table as shes a bouncy lil bi*^h but will be careful with her,,, any sign the bears are taking over and im out with hope of rebuying in later...this might be the best day trade etf out there right now if you know what youre doing cause of the bounciness....good luck with this RD she should be a winner at these levels if have 2-3 month horizon..but who knows DYODD

sold at 17.03 today looking for re entry around 15.2 --15.4,,,,the bears in control for the moment

Sashimi;

We have liftoff-- if she can get thru 20 its going to be a beautiful thing

Sashimi,

What is your plan with UGAZ?
Reason I ask is because its swinging so much each day it might be more profitable to trade short term swings???

Although it is forecasted to be another cold winter like last year it isn't gonna really be any colder and oil is cheaper and production more efficient, ect. however were supposed to export NG in 2015.
Im really confused predicting a top this season. In my gut I do not see it over 30 though. I know you can make a case for this but not seeing it.

What are your thoughts here? You trading OR investing this guy as well?

Sincerely,

DR

DR

You guys still playing these? What causes you to buy? Is it weather reports? And weather for where? Or are you just buying on pull backs hoping it rebounds?

Crus,

I don't like to trade much, as I prefer longer-term investment themes to making money.  NG is an interesting commodity if they ever plan to allow for its export from the U.S.  

 It'll really piss off the Russians, too, lol...  

down to 9.85 but im not biting on UGAZ,,,think she may go to 9.20,, the bears are kicking the s--t out of bulls at the moment,,9.85 is 52 week low so who knows where shes going,,the channel suggest 8.5 but i doubt it

find out when Obama said in a press conference that "We have enough natural gas for the next 100 years." I heard it with my own ears and I though to myself .. "Oh boy , natural gas is dead after saying that..."  Supply and demand.. According to Mr Obama, we have way to much of it .. So yes that means price will go down.. 

Come on break 10.02 girl

Never considered playing commodities before, but gas is kind of one of those no brainers isn't it?

I mean it's cheap right now, but that's not going to last forever. Eventually we will be at $3+ a gallon again.

We're not going to see $1 gas like back in 2000, and even if we did, how long would that be for? Sounds like guaranteed profit if you're willing to hold long term, but it's probably not even necessary.

Of course I see this post the day before it goes up 12%.

Slam this is Natural Gas(NattyG) not gasoline...Its called the widowmaker trade and for good reason

Knox, you are underestimating the premise that NG will always be priced as a local commodity.  Oil is traded as a global commodity because it is more easily transported by ship/pipeline to areas around the world.  NG does not have the same luxury .  It is priced relative to the  markets it serves ;    Europe, U.S., Asia, etc. all trade with different values for NG.     For example NG in Asia trades at nearly 3x the price as it does is in U.S. 

What happens when the U.S. allows for the export of NG to Europe, for instance.   It is closer than you think, because the Europeans are growing hostage to the Russians with every passing day.   The U.S. is flowing with excess NG, and cannot wait to take advantage of markets that are paying too much.

Opportunity is with the NG drillers, despite the hardship taking place right now.