all the little ants are MARCHing....forex

buck,

What do you have in total positions?

I have two Eu.AU long, not looking too bad averaged at 1.4812 so about 25 pips out..not bad.

I had no idea until the other day that the CD is near par again..that is just crazy. They were mentioning in news that if the Fed raised the discount rate again it might really start a ramp on the USD, which makes perfect sense.

When the FED starts raising rates the USD will hit 100 plus Yen, probably back to par vs the EU, 1.30s or lower for the LB, the AUD will go back to the high .70 area..it will be a huge opportunity.

yes indeed was hoping for something this week even if it was just a change in language but got shit...

i got 4 EU and 2 AU...dollar index looks good so id say my EU trade is looking bleak again...may be something i just end up letting go and loading up on shrts if things get worse....i would like to load up on AU and JPY b4 a hike cause that will be easy $$$$$$$$....

buck,

I have to sort of agree with you, which means the tide will turn and the EU will sky rocket.

It looks tired..it sells of easily, takes forever to bounce..lots of negative scenarios facing the EU and the LB..especially how historically we lead the way in and out of cycles..so the EU is probably in a worse spot and will take longer to break free from the mess.

Ive been in some bleak positions though and never got caught with my pants down as long as I had that powder to move around..

Cad trade was perfect...didnt hit 1.02 but quick drop after data

retail sales at 830...parity????

The EU keeps sinking, the Eu.Au trade I have is looking like puke.

Picked up a Lb.Yen at 136.40, also averaged down again on my Eu trade..need it to break 1.4783, which is only 25 pips away or so.

WOW!! Euro dropped like a rock!  Getting back to my original position!

Out of EU.AU, netted a tad over 100 pips.

So you never sold more to raise ur price?

Out of LB.Yen for a profit of about 130 pips.

Now completely flat on my positions.

NICE

wish i could say that

I was able to average down on that big YEN pop (Lb.Yen drop) and it came back quickly, a little fortunate for sure.

I dont think I will be going long the EU.AU for a very long time if at all, every time I go long it is painful and slow to make a profit.

EU/CHF lowest ever

Yeah and that goes back to pre-1986?

Gentlemen,

SS Lb.Yen at 136.25

Looking for 50

Coondog, what time frame on a chart are you considering doing this?

What you might want to do is study charts to see how often these technical indicators fail or continue at high or low levels before reversing?

Ive seen pairs and stocks trade at high stoch levels for weeks/months and the levels only go so high and then stop being of much use, all the while the price of the instrument continues to go up (or down) and the technical indicator does not properly reflect such.

On the subject of stops, they can be an account killer..its a tough concept but the way the Forex market swings, it knocks out stops on both sides and the initial reason for entering a trade could be correct, but you get stopped out before realizing the potential gain.

I should have phrased the question a bit better.  How liberal would you place your stops on the downside.

1 day charts

Yeah I would go off 4 hour or 1 day chart time frames.

Trace back on the US.Yen chart and see how long the pair traded at extreme RSI and Stoch levels and what that meant on a pips basis..so when it first traded at a high or low stoch level and when it finally reversed direct, and how much higher or lower the pair went before it moved in your favor.

The USD/JPY pairing volatility seems to meet the criteria in a range from as little as 1-2 weeks to 2 months, that is acceptable to me....I just wonder what the probability of bumps in the road a.k.a. stopped out prevent this from even being a possibility.

in terms of pips, it moves anywhere from 100-400 pips in the time frame of 1-8 weeks

it usually meets my criteria every 1-2 weeks  

I mean how it performs once it meets your parameters..so say it trades at a 20 RSI, try and track the point when it first entered that level and how far down it went until it reversed..

I think your stops if you are going to use them need to be very wide and your liquidity deep.

It would be a good idea to get a practice account for a while and test the theory to see how it works out..

This pair hits the bottom and springs back rather quickly and reverses direction within 1-2 days (offering what I think would be a considerable amount of buying opportunity) and the momentum pushes it up to the selling goal criteria (with another considerable time frame for selling opportunity) without much hesitation.  And the opposite holds true too, once it is "oversold/overpriced". I have seen what you are referring to in other pairs, just sitting in a holding pattern at a high or a low for quite an extended time period, or even worse: RSI and Stochs hit lows but the pricing of the pair falls even deeper; but the USD/JPY would be my specific concentration for the very reason that it seems to avoid performing this type of indifference. Once the criteria are met, the pair price reacts in our favor. At least this is my neophyte comprehension of what is taking place.