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2009

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Veteran
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Posted: #1

Happy New Year to everyone...may it be a little less "interesting" (in the usage of the Chinese proverb) than 2008...

 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #2
I expect a much more boring 2009 than 2008.


 
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Posted: #3
Wall,

Nothing like a slow grinding recession to bore everyone...and in that spirit, a few optimistic words from....Mr.Roubini LOL..:

The United States will certainly experience its worst recession in decades, a deep and protracted contraction lasting about 24 months through the end of 2009. Moreover, the entire global economy will contract. There will be recession in the euro zone, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Canada, Japan, and the other advanced economies. There is also a risk of a hard landing for emerging-market economies, as trade, financial, and currency links transmit real and financial shocks to them.

 
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Posted: #4
And the coda, which I agree with, unfortunately:

But the worst is still ahead of us. In the next few months, the macroeconomic news and earnings/profits reports from around the world will be much worse than expected, putting further downward pressure on prices of risky assets, because equity analysts are still deluding themselves that the economic contraction will be mild and short.

While the risk of a total systemic financial meltdown has been reduced by the actions of the G-7 and other economies to backstop their financial systems, severe vulnerabilities remain. The credit crunch will get worse; deleveraging will continue, as hedge funds and other leveraged players are forced to sell assets into illiquid and distressed markets, thus causing more price falls and driving more insolvent financial institutions out of business. A few emerging-market economies will certainly enter a full-blown financial crisis.

So 2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses, and bankruptcies. Only aggressive, coordinated, and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy recovers in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

Nouriel Roubini is Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and Chairman of RGE Monitor (www.rgemonitor.com), an economic and financial consultancy.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2008. www.project-syndicate.org


 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #5
I think it could last longer than 24 months. If we consider we changed economic cycle by about 4 yrs, that would mean 3-4 yrs to undo what we did and return stability to the economy.

I think the markets keep being wacky but at a lower range..now if CC is right and inflation returns from loose cash being thrown around, the market COULD bounce more than it should, which would extend the time on the recession.
 
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Posted: #6
 I think the scale of wealth evaporation is such that it makes me come to a halt when contemplating inflation. I really do wonder at the likelihood of what Roubini says is necessary to make things happen by 2010:

Only aggressive, coordinated, and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy recovers in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

 How likely is it those three requirements will be met by (essentially) world pols? Not very likely at all to me.So, like you, I think it goes beyond 2010.

 
All-Star
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Posted: #7
You know, Wall, I don't think inflation will just "return" all of a sudden in 2009, but the seeds for it have been planted-----and I do believe inflation will flourish from 2010 through 2014, but not much in 2009 due to the hideous economic prospects for this year.
 
The bailout packages given by Pauson Inc to all his banker cronies will spur inflation once the economy turns----and it will.
 
My long term prospect for "the market" is Dow 20,000 by EOY 2014, but due to inflation, that will be about like Dow 8,000 buying power (which is about where we are now).  Yep, 150% inflation, which also will be aided by the systematic destruction of the dollar.
 
My best investment for 2009 would simply be spot gold, but it damn sure won't be anything easy------bumpy ride all the way, but spot is like 875 an ounce now.......it'll be higher in 365, now 364 days.
 
The biggest concern I personally have for the future is socialism in this country.  Freedom, or whatever is left of it, is our greatest treasure.
 
I hope I am wrong on everything, but to me, the future in this country couldn't be more bleak.  Obama will be tested internationally so much, that the domestic catastrophes in this country will, as usual, get put on the back burner to deal with crap like Israel/Palestine/Pakistan/etc.....  The present gaggle of rubbish otherwise know as the US Congress is NOTHING except a bunch of farking grandstanders who like the camera-------one of the best things this sad, stupid country could do would be to get rid of that gdmf---ing CSPAN, so those sheetheads would have no camera anymore.  Republicans will take over Congress in 2010, and then there'll be nothing but gridlock, and Obama won't get a damn thing done.
 
It'd be so esy to fix things in this country, but we are so lost and so deep in crap, it is basically impossible.
 
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Posted: #8
Best advice for anyone reading is this....
 
If you are lucky enough to have a job now, keep it.
 
Spend as little money as humanly possible.
 
Don't even think about "investing" right now in stocks out of fear "you might miss something."  If you are "investing," dollar cost average in high yielding ticker symbols with strong balance sheets.  And in all of this, realize the goals of the leaders whom you elect are to control you and spend your tax dollars on their private agenda.
 
Everyone have a safe, productive and lovely 2009.
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
Clay, if you believe 150%+ inflation the next 5 years then wouldn't the best move be to borrow as much as you can get your hands at cheap interest rates?

Seems like the greatest time ever to be a first-time homebuyer -- crazy low interest rates combined with low housing and impending inflation.  Seems like now would be the time to buy and borrow as much house as you can -- as long as you have a job and good credit, that is.
 
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Posted: #10
Depeche-
 
Exactly-----and that is what I am doing, in fact today.  Securing loans all over the place now.
 
And you know, D2, which is even worse than the inevitable higher taxes and coming inflation?  Socialism.  Loss of freedoms totally.
 
Some poet somewhere said this, "gather ye rosebuds while ye may."  I suggest you do the same, cause 6 years from now, forget what you see now.
 
 
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Posted: #11

 Herrick was the poet by the way, but he was after maidenheads instead of credit lines LOL. And I find myself in agreement, yet again, with CC...





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