This year's Kentucky Derby slowly becoming a paceless one

should have read.....

so who do you like fatroll?

im loving Dunkirk

As of this moment I like in the following order

1) IWR
2) FF
3) Dunkirk
4) Quality Road
5) Chocolate Candy/POTN/Papa Clem

None of these are confirmed I need workouts over Churchill. I tivo all the works coming up to the derby. I mean you look at the last 3 derby winners. The experts stated all three were gliding effortlessly. I need to see IWR over churchill downs.

-Rawm- I believe Dunkirk is the best 3 year old. My problem with him is his running style/stride and lack of seasoning. I fell for the trap with Empire Maker and Point Given, I bet street sense but I thought curlin was the best horse... hard thing for me to do.. The thing with Dunkirk is he has that monster stride. Street sense had the quick explosive stride. Dunkirk is always outside because if you are outside with a long stride you never have to shorten up your stride. In a 20 horse field he may be wide wide wide, then 10 wide on the final turn, add a slow pace to the mix. If everything fell perfectly for him he could win but I just dont see it. The horse is a freak I just think we have a few other really good horses in this field, and that makes it real hard when you are coming from way back.
-Quality road is solid but really lacks the experience, 1 two turn race and the speed was killer at GP. Add the quarter crack and it scares me. Wasn't that impressed with the way he finished in the FLA derby. Would not be surprised if he wins but got to play against.
-POTN- Will never bet a horse first time off the poly on the dirt. Especially with his running style- dirt in his face. Potn is also young and a bit immature. Probably my biggest pet peive is that he actually wins on the poly so he does like it, IWR and PAPA clem didnt win.
-FF has the perfect progression and running style. His progression is barbaro type. barbaro ran that 103 in the fla derby then bam 110. I dont think he is that good though and 7 weeks is a lot. I just think larry jones is the best in the business.
- People knock IWR left and right. Ya he lost out west but he did not like the synthetic. He never took to it and he still was competitive with ccandy, Potn, Papa clem. People knock that he beat nothing out east. Well on the same day he won the wood breaking 7 lengths behind the field, he ran 1 second faster then the older horses ran in grade 3 either just before or after. He showed poise and patience. That race really set him up nice for the derby. He learned so much. I get scared that it may have took a lot out of him but mullins says he is tearing down the barn.
-The derby has proven it's a race of beyers. Besides the year giacomo won(dont get me started) all the big odds have come from legitimate horses. War emblem had the highest beyer coming into the derby, charismatic had like a 110 coming into the derby, and funny cide battled with empire maker and got a 108 coming into the derby. It turned out funny cide had more tactical speed and empire maker was 5 wide 5 wide 5 wide. So although they had big odds they really were no surprise to me. If you dont put the horse with the highest beyer coming into the derby in your bets your asking for trouble :)
-Time for some workouts- whose ready to fire

I guess Musket Man is knocking on the door for me as well. I am a coa fan

Fatroll,

Well I guess you showed me... I had no idea you were the best! I'm terribly sorry...

You obviously don't get it and never will. First of all Pioneer of the Nile has come form off the pace in every race. Whether he purposefully rates or not he has proven he is not a need the lead type.
Many of us can also attest to the fact that in a race devoid of speed types often times the typical stalkers find themselves on the lead together and an atypical speed duel develops. This can and often does  cause a race meltdown.
Why don't you give us all your actual Derby plays with order of finish and amounts wagered the day before the Derby and we can compare our results. That seems a fair way to prove you're the best or at least get you to shut up.  

Great posts Fatroll. I am really enjoying everything you wrote in the thread.

It is just my opinion that when there are too many pressing type of horses, they do tend to tire each other out fighting for position.

Can't wait to start handicapping this race !!!

Bimmer,

That is so true (at everybody having their own way of handicapping this great race). I do enjoy people writing with passion and fatroll certainly does that.

lol im getting it all over the place. Kervaine there was a guy on covers about two years ago who challenged me in the derby. I laughed at him and said if im wrong I will never post on this forum again. We each took a horse and I was right as usual. I dont know if any of the other guys here remember but this little kid was so serious and I had no choice but to shut him down. I will be happy to head to head wager with you. We can send the money to one of the respectable posters on this site. $100 bucks or something, I don't want to ruin your bankroll. I have already given you some valuable information . You have nothing to lose! Im the cocky one.
-Bimmer I said I won the last three derbys. I guess thats not a big deal to you.. it's just the hardest horse race to handicap on the planet. I admitted I lost with giacomo, point given, and Empire Maker. I didn't say I was perfect. Just the best.

mikeyp these are not 2 year old babies. These are the best 3 year olds in the world. No they will not collapse at 46 and change half mile and no they will not run sub 46 seconds this year. I will put my money on that if you want.

i cant wait for the pp's to come out already

Wow..the best huh? Im sure glad i found you.

In the greatest value race of the year your great capping skill comes up w/ PointGiven,Empire Maker,Barbaro,Street Sense,BigBrown. Whith your incredible amount of skill and insight you land on some pretty short horses.Cashin a ticket is nothing to be ashamed of but saying you are the best for finding obvious talent is ahh...not very impressive.GL though as you once again have found the fast horses.