Saturday At The SPA

The jockey colony at Saratoga has to be one of the best I've seen in a number of years. Anyone one of these jockeys can make a major difference in how a horse runs. Rosario, the Ortiz brothers, Johnny V, Javier, Tyler & Many Franco can win any race. Irad Ortiz had 5 winners on Thursday.

At the end of the Belmont meet, I was playing a rolling Ortiz brothers double. I didn't make a lot of money with the concept but it did make a few bucks. I may try that tomorrow but include Rosario. It's a no brainer small investment that gives a little action in every race.

We have a couple of short fields tomorrow which limit trifecta play but we can still make money. I've capped Monmouth & GP and will have a couple of plays there but will concentrate on Saratoga.

Race 1 trainer David Donk has two entered but I'm looking at the 1-5-8 for the first half of the early double.

Race 2 trainer Gary Gullo has the ML favorite in #5 Munnings Muse @ 5-2 but he is 0-17 with 2nd time starters at his level. With Rosario staying on board, he'll vet heavily bet bet but that trainer trend worries me. I like that Javier gets back up on #2 Vivazano. #3 Barbara's Bank is interesting for the simple fact his will be her 3rd race for a different trainer. I don't know if we have a fickle owner here but I do like the jock upgrade to Manny Franco. The Ortiz brothers are both on 1st time starters with Irad riding for Pletcher & that combo has won 3 of 4. How can I pass up their filly #7 Midnight Surprise.

Race 3 #1 Call Me Love has won 5 of 10 but those have all been in Italy. She's 9 of 10 ITM on the turf & Rosario/Clement combo has been winning everything. #2 Bramble Queen has won her last 2 & 4 of 9 at this distance on the grass against lesser company but get a jock upgrade to Franco. Can't remember the last time I've seen a Chad Brown filly ML of 30-1 but that's #3 North of Broadway. #5 Sistercharlie has won 10 of 15 & banked 3.6 million. She's been away 8 months but is by far the class of the race. #6 Starship Jubilee is no slouch winning 17 of 35 but....

Race 4 has a small field of 7 with 4 fillies being trained by 2 trainers. I don't like uncoupled entries & will pass on this race. Maybe I'll box the other 3 trainers since 2 of them own their fillies.

Race 5 if #9 Sir Alfred James runs anywhere close to his last race he should beat these.

Race 6...I like trainer Michelle Nevin but have no idea why she has selected jockey Reylu Gutierrez to ride #4 Skyler's Scramjet ML 6-1. He is 0 for 53 & has 1 win in his last 102 races. Maybe it fits because this gelding hasn't won in 3 years. However, Nevin has won 6 of 10 when dropping her horses 50% in the claiming ranks from 52K to 25K. She must have a reason for shipping him to Saratoga, ya think? #6 Coltandmississippi has been claimed 6 times in the last year by 5 different trainers. He's been heavily bet in all of his races, this is his 1st race off the claim & attracts Tyler. #5 Aristocratic is the speed of the race & they will have to catch this guy. The entry #1 will be tough if they both stay in the race.

Race 7 is a nice Allowance mile on the turf.  As many as 7 have a good chance to win this one. Will look at this race closer in the morning.

Time for some burgers on the grill & watch the end of the Mets/Braves game. The Marlins will be fun to watch as well until they dip into the bullpen. I played the Rays-1.5 +147 against the Jays & hope that Charlie Morton doesn't hang any curves. 

Trainer David Donk kept the "Honk for Donk" theory alive winning the last paying $17.40.

It's unreal how many times this guy wins the last race of the day.

Tomorrow he has #2 Eighty Seven North in the finale.

In the 2nd, 0-17 trainer Gullo had #5 the favorite act up in the gate & was scratched allowing time for the money to pour in on Pletcher's firster #7 Midnight Surprise to get all the action which lowered the 8-7 double to $24.60.

That late scratch of the 5 cost us in the double but what can you do....

Race 3 if you haven't seen #5 Sistercharlie run before, sit back and enjoy her.   

If anyone was going to beat Sistercharlie it was Starship Jubilee & she did.

Sistercharlie just didn't act like she was into it today.

Race 4 small ex box 2-7

This is just an action play because with 2 trainers having 4 of the 7 entered who knows what will take place.

Johnny V won with #7 pretty easily; #2 ran 4th but was never really in the race.

Even being loaded in the race both Linda Rice & Tom Amoss didn't win. 

Race 5 EX/DD wheel #9; tri key 9 with 4-5-6-7. I'm leaving out #10 & hope it doesn't burn me.

#4 got the jump on #9 who ran 2nd.

Santana made a great move on #4 & my guy was closing but needed another 100 yards to catch him. #10 closed like crazy to get 3rd.

Race 6 # 8 Mojovation was claimed for 40k in May but now gets dropped down to 25k; that's pretty suspicious to me. #6 loves to be claimed & gets Tyler which I like. I'm dding #1 & #5 to the play.

Ex/tri box 8-6-1-5 

Race 6 at Saratoga. Skyler's Scramjet turning into a little bit of an overlay! 

Skyler's Scramjet in front!

Race 6...I like trainer Michelle Nevin but have no idea why she has selected jockey Reylu Gutierrez to ride #4 Skyler's Scramjet ML 6-1. He is 0 for 53 & has 1 win in his last 102 races. Maybe it fits because this gelding hasn't won in 3 years. However, Nevin has won 6 of 10 when dropping her horses 50% in the claiming ranks from 52K to 25K. She must have a reason for shipping him to Saratoga, ya think? 

Now the jock is 2 for 103!

It was too late for me to include him in my play after #1 scratched. I blew a $116 ex , a $228 Tri & a $1,196 superfecta with a $20 winner on top.

I'm going to throw up...

Race 7 ex/tri box 1-3-6-9

I shared that data on trainer Michelle Nevin & the jock & the hunch & why she would ship him to Saratoga & drops him in company & I don't freaking play the horse in my ex/tri box.. 

I should be gelded for that move!!!!!

Midnight - I’m a LONG time covers member...never post though....GREAT call on Skyler’s Scramjet.  I like Reylu but you are correct - he’s in way over his head riding against the best at the Spa.  He’s better at smaller tracks like Gulf, Tampa Bay, etc...but is a decent jockey.  Your analysis made me look twice at that horse and I had a nice W and P bet on it.   Someone asked on another thread “who the good cappers are” on the horse forum.  For me, it’s you, vetdrm, and misterH.... you may be bummed about missing your bet on SS, but do know people that don’t always post DO appreciate your analysis 

Nope...#3 won easily but nobody else came to the party.

Race 8 #1A cost the owner Robert LaPenta 975k & has won his only 2 races. Why not make it 3 in a row?

Ex/tri box 1-8-7

Ran 2nd & 3rd..no good.

Race 9 I think we have a shot at a nice payoff. #3 ran 3rd coming 14 lenghts off the lead. He goes longer here & his closing style makes him a contender with Rosario getting onboard. #9 was making a move n his last when he got cutoff & settled fr 3rd @ 37-1. Last year here he ran 4th losing a length. #8 won his last closing off the pace & goes longer here. #12 Stanhope has been away 8 months but attract Javier for Brad Cox.

WP #12

Ex/tri box 3-8-9-12  

#8 & #9 ran 2nd & 3rd both @ 16-1 but #3 & 12 finished up the track. The winner was #10 & he was 68-1 in his last race. Put Irad on him, he goes off @ 17-1. 

8-9 would have been a real nice exacta.

WOW...10-8 exacta pays $810; tri 10-8-9 pays $3,114 for a buck.

Time to sit by the pool and chill.

R10 #4 will be tough but #5 Mind Control may be closing from way back.

R11 WP #2 Eighty Seven North (Honk for Donk play)

Ex/tri box 2-5-6-7

Pretty frustrating day but still fun. The sun will come up tomorrow......I think.

can't say much more than what was already said, so I will just say THANK YOU .  you knowledge and input is very much appreciated and I look for your analysis each day.  Thanks again