Posted:
#26
Ok, some more stuff on the figs:
For the record I like the Sheets and Thorograph. I just don't like using only one number and saying "well this horse ran a 5 on Thorograph so he will win for sure". I think you have to look at a bunch of other things but the numbers from the Sheets do definitely give you a sense of the horse's overall ability in terms of how fast he is or has run before. I've only used the Sheets a few times. I feel the Beyers match up closely so strong Sheet numbers are reflected in the Beyers.
One of the reasons why I like the Beyer is because it can help give you an apples to apples comparison. Let's say GP and SA are running the exact same race on the exact same day. let's say it is a 6F G2 for older males. The winner at GP runs it in 1:09 flat. The winner at SA runs it in 1:08 flat. it is entirely possible that the winner at GP gets a HIGHER Beyer fig even though the final time was slower. The Beyer takes into account how fast the track was playing on that given day and on recent days among many other things. So, if these two horses met a month later at say Belmont then you can look at those Beyers to see who you think might run faster in the current race. The Beyer takes into account the distance between placings as well which is why turf Beyers are generally lower even with faster splits and final times because there are a lot of very close and tight finishes on turf.
I also see that the Beyers have limitations. Horses popping their biggest figs on a sloppy surface or track with some moisture could be a trap. It is not always a trap but it can be. I also think some figs are inflated when a horse destroys a field by several lengths and it is against a weaker group of horses. You see this fairly often a horse will pop a big number way out of pattern against some cupcakes. he ends up as the fav in his next start and if it is against better horses he generally gets defeated easily.
Let's look at the fav in the Tampa Bay Derby. He ran a 79 in his debut winning by 6 lengths going 7F. In his next race he ran an 85 Beyer. Nice pattern at first glance. But, note that in his last race it was a sloppy track and at GP a one mile race is only around one turn. the Tampa Bay Derby was two turns. he has Pletch/Castellano/Smart Strike and those two solid figs relative to the field and he is the fav. I didn't like him (relative to this field) since he had not gone around two turns and that last fig was on a sloppy track. The comments in that last race also said "prevailed" meaning he really had to dig in to gut out the win.
The top two finishers had a smooth progression of Beyer figs and they had run their fastest fig around two turns at the same distance as the race they were running in. They ended up running well and moving forward a bit. I'm sure they both got a Beyer that exceeded all of their previous figs. I didn't profit from it just pointing it out.
For the record I like the Sheets and Thorograph. I just don't like using only one number and saying "well this horse ran a 5 on Thorograph so he will win for sure". I think you have to look at a bunch of other things but the numbers from the Sheets do definitely give you a sense of the horse's overall ability in terms of how fast he is or has run before. I've only used the Sheets a few times. I feel the Beyers match up closely so strong Sheet numbers are reflected in the Beyers.
One of the reasons why I like the Beyer is because it can help give you an apples to apples comparison. Let's say GP and SA are running the exact same race on the exact same day. let's say it is a 6F G2 for older males. The winner at GP runs it in 1:09 flat. The winner at SA runs it in 1:08 flat. it is entirely possible that the winner at GP gets a HIGHER Beyer fig even though the final time was slower. The Beyer takes into account how fast the track was playing on that given day and on recent days among many other things. So, if these two horses met a month later at say Belmont then you can look at those Beyers to see who you think might run faster in the current race. The Beyer takes into account the distance between placings as well which is why turf Beyers are generally lower even with faster splits and final times because there are a lot of very close and tight finishes on turf.
I also see that the Beyers have limitations. Horses popping their biggest figs on a sloppy surface or track with some moisture could be a trap. It is not always a trap but it can be. I also think some figs are inflated when a horse destroys a field by several lengths and it is against a weaker group of horses. You see this fairly often a horse will pop a big number way out of pattern against some cupcakes. he ends up as the fav in his next start and if it is against better horses he generally gets defeated easily.
Let's look at the fav in the Tampa Bay Derby. He ran a 79 in his debut winning by 6 lengths going 7F. In his next race he ran an 85 Beyer. Nice pattern at first glance. But, note that in his last race it was a sloppy track and at GP a one mile race is only around one turn. the Tampa Bay Derby was two turns. he has Pletch/Castellano/Smart Strike and those two solid figs relative to the field and he is the fav. I didn't like him (relative to this field) since he had not gone around two turns and that last fig was on a sloppy track. The comments in that last race also said "prevailed" meaning he really had to dig in to gut out the win.
The top two finishers had a smooth progression of Beyer figs and they had run their fastest fig around two turns at the same distance as the race they were running in. They ended up running well and moving forward a bit. I'm sure they both got a Beyer that exceeded all of their previous figs. I didn't profit from it just pointing it out.
0
and you don't need to tell me about Speed Figures. I've studied them in depth, read Beyers books etc. I use them for certain things, one being when I'm looking for signs of improvement in a horse. Some people use them to throw horses out. Biggest problem with speed figures is that there isn't much value in them anymore especially the last race speed figure. Every dufus on earth has them. And speed figures don't take the pace of the race into account. So if you're not using pace figures along with speed figures it's a problem. 
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