Good section on page 5 about Speed Ratings. I've been saying that same thing on here for years. Matter of fact I said the same thing in post 7 of my Kentucky Derby thread. LINK
Speed Ratings are one of the least important handicapping factors for me. More often than not I never even look at them.
Good section on page 5 about Speed Ratings. I've been saying that same thing on here for years. Matter of fact I said the same thing in post 7 of my Kentucky Derby thread. LINK
Speed Ratings are one of the least important handicapping factors for me. More often than not I never even look at them.
I like an interesting long shot here in this race, (1) Prospective 8/1 morning line, pletcher and castellano will be taking a boat load of money in this one with Spring Hill Farm and deserved the horse does look tough. I'm going to be expecting that the early pace in this one gets carried away (way too fast too much speed in the race). Which brings me to my selection for this race.
First, couple of things to like here Prospective puts the blinkers on here and is one of only two horses in the race with both a win at Tampa and at the distance 1 mile and a 16th. (Battle Hardened is the other) He runs a nice grinding presser style and computer figs fit right in here with these. I'm tossing out the Breederscup JVL race because that was an impossible trip where he was into the second turn. naturally with a pick three I'll be playing the usual suspects along with the (1) but if I'm going to play a horse to win in this Race I'm going to have a nice shot at a good price with this (1) Prospective.......go baby go
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Tampa Bay Derby
I like an interesting long shot here in this race, (1) Prospective 8/1 morning line, pletcher and castellano will be taking a boat load of money in this one with Spring Hill Farm and deserved the horse does look tough. I'm going to be expecting that the early pace in this one gets carried away (way too fast too much speed in the race). Which brings me to my selection for this race.
First, couple of things to like here Prospective puts the blinkers on here and is one of only two horses in the race with both a win at Tampa and at the distance 1 mile and a 16th. (Battle Hardened is the other) He runs a nice grinding presser style and computer figs fit right in here with these. I'm tossing out the Breederscup JVL race because that was an impossible trip where he was into the second turn. naturally with a pick three I'll be playing the usual suspects along with the (1) but if I'm going to play a horse to win in this Race I'm going to have a nice shot at a good price with this (1) Prospective.......go baby go
I like an interesting long shot here in this race, (1) Prospective 8/1 morning line, pletcher and castellano will be taking a boat load of money in this one with Spring Hill Farm and deserved the horse does look tough. I'm going to be expecting that the early pace in this one gets carried away (way too fast too much speed in the race). Which brings me to my selection for this race.
First, couple of things to like here Prospective puts the blinkers on here and is one of only two horses in the race with both a win at Tampa and at the distance 1 mile and a 16th. (Battle Hardened is the other) He runs a nice grinding presser style and computer figs fit right in here with these. I'm tossing out the Breederscup JVL race because that was an impossible trip where he was into the second turn. naturally with a pick three I'll be playing the usual suspects along with the (1) but if I'm going to play a horse to win in this Race I'm going to have a nice shot at a good price with this (1) Prospective.......go baby go
Haven't made up my mind yet on the Tampa Bay Derby.
Really like the looks of your pick Crusha, and the blinks might help him get better position. I think Pletcher's horse is going to have a hard time in this race. Take Charge Indy is going to be very tough in here, he's probably the one I'd go with first , but if he's chalk, I don't bet chalk especially in a tough race like this. Battle Hardened is a very game horse and the price might be right. That horse on the outside kind of scares me, Cajun Charlie. What if he clears from out there and gets the lead? He's won his last two races very easily.
Wouldn't surprise me if a really long shot won this race either. Some of them are kind of sneaky, like Cozzetti, Ravelo's Boy, Twin, and Chief Energy. I can't completely throw them out.
If I could get 4-1 on Take Charge Indy, I'd take that. Otherwise I'm probably going to be on Battle Hardened or your pick Prospective who should be decent prices. I don't like Pletchers horse in here.
Good Luck Crusha and all.
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Quote Originally Posted by DaCrusha:
Tampa Bay Derby
I like an interesting long shot here in this race, (1) Prospective 8/1 morning line, pletcher and castellano will be taking a boat load of money in this one with Spring Hill Farm and deserved the horse does look tough. I'm going to be expecting that the early pace in this one gets carried away (way too fast too much speed in the race). Which brings me to my selection for this race.
First, couple of things to like here Prospective puts the blinkers on here and is one of only two horses in the race with both a win at Tampa and at the distance 1 mile and a 16th. (Battle Hardened is the other) He runs a nice grinding presser style and computer figs fit right in here with these. I'm tossing out the Breederscup JVL race because that was an impossible trip where he was into the second turn. naturally with a pick three I'll be playing the usual suspects along with the (1) but if I'm going to play a horse to win in this Race I'm going to have a nice shot at a good price with this (1) Prospective.......go baby go
Haven't made up my mind yet on the Tampa Bay Derby.
Really like the looks of your pick Crusha, and the blinks might help him get better position. I think Pletcher's horse is going to have a hard time in this race. Take Charge Indy is going to be very tough in here, he's probably the one I'd go with first , but if he's chalk, I don't bet chalk especially in a tough race like this. Battle Hardened is a very game horse and the price might be right. That horse on the outside kind of scares me, Cajun Charlie. What if he clears from out there and gets the lead? He's won his last two races very easily.
Wouldn't surprise me if a really long shot won this race either. Some of them are kind of sneaky, like Cozzetti, Ravelo's Boy, Twin, and Chief Energy. I can't completely throw them out.
If I could get 4-1 on Take Charge Indy, I'd take that. Otherwise I'm probably going to be on Battle Hardened or your pick Prospective who should be decent prices. I don't like Pletchers horse in here.
And in the San Felipe, I'm looking at these 4 horses not in any order. All of whom came out of the Robert B Lewis which was a very highly rated race according to Brisnet. Should be some good prices here.
Liaison
Rousing Sermon
Groovin Solo
Empire Way
Liaison - should bounce back from the poor performance in the Robert B Lewis. He was coming off a layoff and had won the CashCall Futurity a G1 race before that.
Groovin Solo - has blistered 2 strong workouts (bullets) in a row and finished 3rd in the Robert B Lewis but was disqualified.
Rousing Sermon - got interfered with in the Robert B Lewis, this is his second race off layoff, and before that lost the Cashcall to Liaison by only a neck. He's also been working nicely
Empire Way - finished 2nd in the Robert B Lewis and was close in the CashCall so that makes him an instant contender in my book. He's also 2nd off layoff and should be fit.
I'm just playing the angle that the Robert B Lewis was the strongest Derby prep race so far and the CashCall before that was also a strong race. GL to all
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And in the San Felipe, I'm looking at these 4 horses not in any order. All of whom came out of the Robert B Lewis which was a very highly rated race according to Brisnet. Should be some good prices here.
Liaison
Rousing Sermon
Groovin Solo
Empire Way
Liaison - should bounce back from the poor performance in the Robert B Lewis. He was coming off a layoff and had won the CashCall Futurity a G1 race before that.
Groovin Solo - has blistered 2 strong workouts (bullets) in a row and finished 3rd in the Robert B Lewis but was disqualified.
Rousing Sermon - got interfered with in the Robert B Lewis, this is his second race off layoff, and before that lost the Cashcall to Liaison by only a neck. He's also been working nicely
Empire Way - finished 2nd in the Robert B Lewis and was close in the CashCall so that makes him an instant contender in my book. He's also 2nd off layoff and should be fit.
I'm just playing the angle that the Robert B Lewis was the strongest Derby prep race so far and the CashCall before that was also a strong race. GL to all
Good section on page 5 about Speed Ratings. I've been saying that same thing on here for years. Matter of fact I said the same thing in post 7 of my Kentucky Derby thread. LINK
Speed Ratings are one of the least important handicapping factors for me. More often than not I never even look at them.
You are the greatest Greyhound. Now pick a winner. Tampa Derby exacta box Battle Hardened and Take Charge Indy!
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
Good section on page 5 about Speed Ratings. I've been saying that same thing on here for years. Matter of fact I said the same thing in post 7 of my Kentucky Derby thread. LINK
Speed Ratings are one of the least important handicapping factors for me. More often than not I never even look at them.
You are the greatest Greyhound. Now pick a winner. Tampa Derby exacta box Battle Hardened and Take Charge Indy!
I like an interesting long shot here in this race, (1) Prospective 8/1 morning line, pletcher and castellano will be taking a boat load of money in this one with Spring Hill Farm and deserved the horse does look tough. I'm going to be expecting that the early pace in this one gets carried away (way too fast too much speed in the race). Which brings me to my selection for this race.
First, couple of things to like here Prospective puts the blinkers on here and is one of only two horses in the race with both a win at Tampa and at the distance 1 mile and a 16th. (Battle Hardened is the other) He runs a nice grinding presser style and computer figs fit right in here with these. I'm tossing out the Breederscup JVL race because that was an impossible trip where he was into the second turn. naturally with a pick three I'll be playing the usual suspects along with the (1) but if I'm going to play a horse to win in this Race I'm going to have a nice shot at a good price with this (1) Prospective.......go baby go
Good pick Crusha. The price took a hit when Take Charge Indy got scratched.
The horses coming out of the Robert B Lewis didn't do shit in the San Felipe. I still believe in the Brisnet Race Rating though.
Not sure what this Smitty69's deal is. Looks like he signed up to take a shot at me and then went over to Atlas's thread and held his hand after he went 2 for 16. Might be Atlas's girlfriend or one of his fans, not sure.
I've got nothing against Atlas. It's a tough game.
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Quote Originally Posted by DaCrusha:
Tampa Bay Derby
I like an interesting long shot here in this race, (1) Prospective 8/1 morning line, pletcher and castellano will be taking a boat load of money in this one with Spring Hill Farm and deserved the horse does look tough. I'm going to be expecting that the early pace in this one gets carried away (way too fast too much speed in the race). Which brings me to my selection for this race.
First, couple of things to like here Prospective puts the blinkers on here and is one of only two horses in the race with both a win at Tampa and at the distance 1 mile and a 16th. (Battle Hardened is the other) He runs a nice grinding presser style and computer figs fit right in here with these. I'm tossing out the Breederscup JVL race because that was an impossible trip where he was into the second turn. naturally with a pick three I'll be playing the usual suspects along with the (1) but if I'm going to play a horse to win in this Race I'm going to have a nice shot at a good price with this (1) Prospective.......go baby go
Good pick Crusha. The price took a hit when Take Charge Indy got scratched.
The horses coming out of the Robert B Lewis didn't do shit in the San Felipe. I still believe in the Brisnet Race Rating though.
Not sure what this Smitty69's deal is. Looks like he signed up to take a shot at me and then went over to Atlas's thread and held his hand after he went 2 for 16. Might be Atlas's girlfriend or one of his fans, not sure.
I've got nothing against Atlas. It's a tough game.
He signed up in February so how do you figure he signed up to take a shot at you?
Well he used his first post on me let's put it that way.
And if you look at what he quoted in post 11 up above, in the thread I linked (post 7) its me responding to something Atlas posted.
Just thought it was curious that he then goes over to Atlas's thread for his 3rd post and tells him what a big fan he is. I've got detective skills man.
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Quote Originally Posted by spliquid:
He signed up in February so how do you figure he signed up to take a shot at you?
Well he used his first post on me let's put it that way.
And if you look at what he quoted in post 11 up above, in the thread I linked (post 7) its me responding to something Atlas posted.
Just thought it was curious that he then goes over to Atlas's thread for his 3rd post and tells him what a big fan he is. I've got detective skills man.
I really think he was complementing you for providing the information and links and just joking around about giving a pick. He's probably a "long time lurker, first time caller"
I know you used your Sherlock Holmes skills in figuring out who Diabolical was but in this case the cool hat and magnifying glass might not be needed
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Or paranoia
I really think he was complementing you for providing the information and links and just joking around about giving a pick. He's probably a "long time lurker, first time caller"
I know you used your Sherlock Holmes skills in figuring out who Diabolical was but in this case the cool hat and magnifying glass might not be needed
Well he used his first post on me let's put it that way.
And if you look at what he quoted in post 11 up above, in the thread I linked (post 7) its me responding to something Atlas posted.
Just thought it was curious that he then goes over to Atlas's thread for his 3rd post and tells him what a big fan he is. I've got detective skills man.
Get home, crack a beer, and look to see if anyone had anything intelligent to say about the races from this weekend. Sheesh.
Come on Grey, just be a man and type it right here in this forum that you are accusing me of creating an account to make comments about someone else and talk to myself. Just say it. Get it off your chest.
One caveat though, after you say it run to Covers and tell them to put on a full court press, industrial strength, all hands on deck, 100% computer audit of my account. Let them know to contact me and I would be happy to comply with any request they have. Got nothing to hide. Don't need another account. I ain't a perfect man and far, far from that but I am also not a small child.
Ask them if my posts since say August/September all came from Massachusetts except for a couple that may have been from Chicago and maybe even Indiana (not sure if I ever posted from Indiana) due to business travel. Ask them if I posted from SoCal since joining until roughly July of 2011.
Thanks for keeping close tabs on my stats. If I want to pad them I'll bang a bunch of chalks I think are likely winners regardless of price. Gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling that you care that much.
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Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:
Well he used his first post on me let's put it that way.
And if you look at what he quoted in post 11 up above, in the thread I linked (post 7) its me responding to something Atlas posted.
Just thought it was curious that he then goes over to Atlas's thread for his 3rd post and tells him what a big fan he is. I've got detective skills man.
Get home, crack a beer, and look to see if anyone had anything intelligent to say about the races from this weekend. Sheesh.
Come on Grey, just be a man and type it right here in this forum that you are accusing me of creating an account to make comments about someone else and talk to myself. Just say it. Get it off your chest.
One caveat though, after you say it run to Covers and tell them to put on a full court press, industrial strength, all hands on deck, 100% computer audit of my account. Let them know to contact me and I would be happy to comply with any request they have. Got nothing to hide. Don't need another account. I ain't a perfect man and far, far from that but I am also not a small child.
Ask them if my posts since say August/September all came from Massachusetts except for a couple that may have been from Chicago and maybe even Indiana (not sure if I ever posted from Indiana) due to business travel. Ask them if I posted from SoCal since joining until roughly July of 2011.
Thanks for keeping close tabs on my stats. If I want to pad them I'll bang a bunch of chalks I think are likely winners regardless of price. Gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling that you care that much.
Regarding the speed figures maybe my reading comprehension skills are different than yours. I am not familiar with this gentleman from Tampa but I fail to see where he says speed figures are not important. In fact, I think he specifically says you need to project forward.
he also mentions that since the Tampa Bay Derby received graded status all but two of the winners had registered a Beyer of 90 or higher prior to the Tampa Bay Derby. So he is validating the figs by saying damn near all of the winners had already shown the ability to run a certain fig prior to the race. Not sure how that means he says the figs are trash.
Yes, I absolutely believe the speed figure is crucial. I think all of the products are nice but have gotten very comfortable with DRF. Kind of like getting used to a language. However I think one figure or set of figures doesn't tell the whole story it is how you use and analyze the speed figures. Using them and analyzing to them to project forward to today's race under today's conditions (distance, surface, etc.) is why I think they are crucial.
Actually, this current version of the Tampa Bay Derby showed that figs do indeed matter. Nobody had figs that easily eceeded the others. the 12 ran an 87 but that was against Louisiana state breds and on a sloppy track. He ran up the track. The 5 ran a 84 before but that was only a 5F race. The 7 had a nice pattern of improving figs but was unable to win the race. Maybe just not his day.
The winner and the second place finisher both had a very clear pattern of improving speed figs (Beyers I am looking at in the PPs right now). Toss the BC Juvey for the winner and he came in with a 64, 72, 77, and 80 pattern. The #2 had a pattern of 69, 70, 73, and 83. The fav did run an 85 in his last which is in the same ballpark. he ran poorly for whatever reason. I didn;t like him and ultimately passed on the race anyways. But the way I see it the two horses in a tight finish had an improving pattern of speed figs and that includes running their best fig at the distance of Saturday's race. Coincidence? Maybe but maybe not.
I am more than willing to admit I think speed is absolutely the name of the game. "Speed" does not mean only horses going out front. Speed Figures measure the overall "speed" a horse ran for the entire race. Recency, late speed, pattern, speed/pace/stamina/distance/class/surface, J/T combo, and breeding (if applicable).
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Regarding the speed figures maybe my reading comprehension skills are different than yours. I am not familiar with this gentleman from Tampa but I fail to see where he says speed figures are not important. In fact, I think he specifically says you need to project forward.
he also mentions that since the Tampa Bay Derby received graded status all but two of the winners had registered a Beyer of 90 or higher prior to the Tampa Bay Derby. So he is validating the figs by saying damn near all of the winners had already shown the ability to run a certain fig prior to the race. Not sure how that means he says the figs are trash.
Yes, I absolutely believe the speed figure is crucial. I think all of the products are nice but have gotten very comfortable with DRF. Kind of like getting used to a language. However I think one figure or set of figures doesn't tell the whole story it is how you use and analyze the speed figures. Using them and analyzing to them to project forward to today's race under today's conditions (distance, surface, etc.) is why I think they are crucial.
Actually, this current version of the Tampa Bay Derby showed that figs do indeed matter. Nobody had figs that easily eceeded the others. the 12 ran an 87 but that was against Louisiana state breds and on a sloppy track. He ran up the track. The 5 ran a 84 before but that was only a 5F race. The 7 had a nice pattern of improving figs but was unable to win the race. Maybe just not his day.
The winner and the second place finisher both had a very clear pattern of improving speed figs (Beyers I am looking at in the PPs right now). Toss the BC Juvey for the winner and he came in with a 64, 72, 77, and 80 pattern. The #2 had a pattern of 69, 70, 73, and 83. The fav did run an 85 in his last which is in the same ballpark. he ran poorly for whatever reason. I didn;t like him and ultimately passed on the race anyways. But the way I see it the two horses in a tight finish had an improving pattern of speed figs and that includes running their best fig at the distance of Saturday's race. Coincidence? Maybe but maybe not.
I am more than willing to admit I think speed is absolutely the name of the game. "Speed" does not mean only horses going out front. Speed Figures measure the overall "speed" a horse ran for the entire race. Recency, late speed, pattern, speed/pace/stamina/distance/class/surface, J/T combo, and breeding (if applicable).
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Just click on Todd Pletcher on the right side to get the PP's for the Tampa Bay Derby.
GL to all
I still believe in the Brisnet Race Rating though. 
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