Mohawk Harness Thread 2.0 - Last2Thirst

Looks like my last post in the old thread I created and used for over 4 years was June 20th

Guess I have been on a long SUMMER HOLIDAY because, the very next day I stopped posting!  *June 21st 2024

I had a pretty good system going and then watching drivers collude in RACE 5 so many times, it made me sick so I decided to take a break. There were many tickets ripped up with $1000 -$10 000 chances in RACE 5 and like my other good friend from out in eastern Canada, he had enough and switched to handicapping thoroughbreds successfully.

Me, I just needed a break and started picking one race card a week and charted, watched what they were doing and it was amazing how many times I called what would happen half way through the race based on what I saw and tactics. In other words, the standardbreds on the big track are so good that they could probably win 50% of their races with certain breeds and in certain classes. I have seen it all this past year.

Looking forward to deploying some new tactics that I have picked up that are proving to be successful here in November and December lately. I hit a pick5 last night deploying one of the tactics I have learned from Randy Waples handicapping races every card and I must say, he is a fantastic teacher and educator about what to look for and I thank him for it.

Also, I decided to chart every first PICK5 results starting last night when I won $315 on a 20 cent ticket (spend $55 getting it and going after some other exotics relating to it). That is something new I am going to do as well. Chart my wins and losses. 

Looking forward to sharing my plays when I like the card....and with that, I am now looking into Monday Dec 16th card as soon as I sign off.  

Here is the old thread if interested: https://www.covers.com/forum/horse-racing-61/harness-racing-ontario---mohawk-specialty-other-b-tracks-occasionally-103549987 

Link to Monday night program > click 12-16 PDF

Copy-paste the following into your browser (I will do this from time to time)

https://woodbine.com/mohawk/free-programs/

Not sure if I will play this card but going to have a look and start capping. New this year I will be deploying the following strategies occasionally:

1. 530 pm and 615 pm top 2 pre race favorites will likely make my take most nights no matter what their odds

2. Jodi Jameson will be added and sometimes keyed on Saturday night cards. He finds a way to win a 5-1 to 40-1 almost every other Saturday card and obviously the 40-1 horses are rare but he hit one a couple weeks ago . Jodi is great for harness racing as well as my youth friend Trevor Henry who I used to play ball with on the court and on the diamond with his brothers, as well as some priceless card games in my teen years in one of the hometowns I lived where he is from. Both are great spot betting KEYS on some Saturday nights and I will occasionally make a play with them on a non favorite horse 

3. Deploy the use of Doug McNair as a key on a horse from post #9 or #10. I cannot tell you how many times he wins with a horse 5 - 1 or better in the program from this post position and its a credit to his style

4. Try to never leave out a Luc Roy or JamesMac driven horse when they are not pre-race favorite and are driving a horse for the first time.....they can improve a horse's speed rating by 2 seconds easily with the confidence they both instill in their horses as they time their aggressive moves to let the horse know they want to win and the horse complies..... I see too many drivers panic down the lane or make an aggressive move and slow down the horse by not keeping it in the pace at high energy mode.....not these two.

5. Hunch: Tyler Borth is going to have a big 2025 and Billy Davis if he stays with this track earning the respect of the harness trainers/owners ..... Borth is learning what I wrote in #4 and what JMAC learned from going down to the Meadowlands being around the 4-5 different styles that get deployed at that track.....and JMAC is a blend of all styles and starting to see this in Borth

I will post a play tomorrow....bigger entry races are starting up with 10 horses in a race and so the payouts and attention to detail will be what I look forward to.  

Just finished capping the PICK5 - my impressions are, this one is going to be big so have a strategy. For instance, I feel JMAC will win at least 1 race and might just wheel him with another strategy.

JMAC has a strong chance in:

Race 1, 4 and 5

Race #1 surprise horse = #1 or #2 < plan on betting $5 to win if the horse seems to have a hold and looks ready/alert

Logical horses are #1,4,5,6 

Race #2 surprise horse ....will bet #9 flat $3-5 but I don't think Billy Davis has the racing style like McNair to win from this post from a classy and tough horse. If McNair were driving, #9 goes in automatically

-#5 strikes me as a horse that will make its presence felt soon with 9 wins in 19 races this year < likely will hunch bet it too if the horse looks great. I don't see the weather being great tomorrow for horses that go to the front 

Logical horses are 2,3,4,7 

-#6 fits in this class or most << look at lifetime earnings but I don't usually see improving times on a first time Tyler Borth drive and the horse is not necessarily faster with him driving vs other steers such as JMAC

Race #3 surprise horse = #3 Gentleonmymind is a horse that has made me over $6000+ in PICK5'S or PICK3's....and Colin Kelly makes one very strong move on this horse and with a sloppy track, that is ideal if the horse is 2nd or 3rd over 

Logical horses are 1345 and maybe #8 < Luc and this horse get along and this trainer is dynamite in producing closing last halfs

Race #4 surprise horse = #7 << any Lyle MacArthur/Linda Wellwood horse is from great stock and Cullen is ideal to race this horse with a big back half and expected sloppy track tomorrow

Logical horses = 23579

Race #5 surprise horse = #8 or #2, 3 or #6 << all 4 of these horses can pick up the pieces down the lane with a timely steer if a speed battle occurs between the 3 logical horses of 3,5,10

Pick5 looks like a large ticket will have to be spent and I am not sure if I want to do so trying to capture every angle.

I am likely just going to do a combo of JMAC KEY with one surprise horse in each race and 3 races that I use non surprise horses. The wet weather was accounted for in my capping decision, meaning horses that blasts to the top 2 positions probably won't be able to hold their speed late in the sloppy track where spill off on that deeper lane makes it a grind for horses. Drivers who position their horses to come off the rail and rally around the slowing wall or come first or 2nd over at the top of the lane will have a better chance and this is where I think a surprise horse will strike from.

Example of ticket#1:

Race 1 > #1 (s-horse)#6

Race 2 > 23467

Race 3 > 13458

Race 4 > 23579

Race 5 > #5

Pick 3 (race 1) > #12456 / 9 / 13458  and #2,#10 /13458 /23579

2nd ticket: 

Race 1 > 1456

Race 2 > 23467

Race 3 > 4 (Gentleonmymind)

Race 4 > 23579

Race 5 > 310

Pick3 (race 1) > 1456 /23467/ 67

I am likely going to play these scenarios and it will cost over $100 ....or if I see a great equipment change and watch Randy's show pre-race for a KEY or confirmation of one of these tickets only with the PICK3s, that is what I will play

I expect a large payout tonight!

Tickets I went with are:

Just got back from laying it at an off track and doing some food shopping

I decided to key JMAC in race 1 or race 4 and not RACE 5 because that horse has won 3 of 4 and its too hard on the horse in the slop to push it all the time

145 / 23467/ 13458/ 2 / 3710 << I bet #2 and #8 flat and have a $8 DBL started in Race 4 > 2 / 5 (JMAC Double)

Got a pick3 alive here to #48 in race #3.....

2nd PICK5 is tossed away > 6 / 23467 / 134578/ 5 / 2357810

I FUCKEN CALLED IT ....watch out for this #4 and I keyed him on this ticket last night but did not play it

#4 wins race #3 at  52 - 1 !!!! Cashed on a pick3 for $317!! 

I have him on my ticket but only #2 keyed in next race and 3 horses so if #2 wins, I will have 3 horses alive on a monster ticket

2nd ticket: 

Race 1 > 1456

Race 2 > 23467

Race 3 > 4 (Gentleonmymind)

Race 4 > 23579

Race 5 > 310

Pick3 (race 1) > 1456 /23467/ 67  << I played this ticket only  ...besides the one that I just won for $317 

Odds never sway me ever....except the first leg of the pick5 

Race 5 payout to my Pick3: - will look and see if a PICK5 pays 4 out of 5 because I have 5 horses alive here and 3 horses won already

Thrilling Times
25 $991.53 (3 of 3)
3
Jadensmagicsteel
11 $195.50 (3 of 3)
4
St Lads Beat It
28 $2,974.61 (3 of 3)
5
Double Down Duke
4/5 $78.96 (3 of 3)
6
Treacherous Tom
7 $346.41 (3 of 3)
7
Tango Seelster
4 $287.48 (3 of 3)
8
Fantome En Joie
17 $506.94 (3 of 3)
9
Sergeant Slaughter
11 $532.43 (3 of 3)
10
B Stoney
10 $187.46 (3 of

There ya go....if you followed my advice on this ticket (I didn't follow my advice because I lost my sheet to follow and improvised)

2nd ticket: 

Race 1 > 1456

Race 2 > 23467

Race 3 > 4 (Gentleonmymind)

Race 4 > 23579

Race 5 > 310

$40 ticket pays > $0.20 Pick 5 1 / 6 / 4 / 5 / 3 (5 of 5)  $14,517.01  <<< 

Will post on Thursday if I like the card

Thursday Mohawk: - excellent race conditions with push wind down the back straight and track fast

Race 1: - 6-7 horses have a strong chance 

Surprise horse(s) > #1 or #2 ....both these trotters were $40K+ yearlings and they can sprint the back half in a trot that is close to the fastest on the page

Figures > #456 and #10 

Race 2: - 3 horse race but consider the surprise horse also

Surprise horse(s): #1 (was peaking before being shutdown for the fall), #10 - Harvest series back half wow

Shocker horse: #8 Jimmy Gagnon's horse (how fast can this horse go? 2 wins in a row at London) 

Figures > #459 << I don't believe #9 can win 5 races in a row but has the closing speed to do so with a push wind. Luc Roy will dictate the pace here and have middle of the gate position and owns his horse so he can win anytime!! I have seen him miraculously shave 2 seconds off one of his horses and win a race

Race 3: - 5 horse race but I think driver/trip will matter so you can cut back

Surprise horse: #7 JR Plante driving - will try for the lead and get position....this driver does well when he comes to Mohawk

Figures:  #136 10<< excellent trainer but the horse will likely not get top 2 positions if it leaves hard and where I think it can be a factor

More to come as I cap....

Race 4: - KEY potential but this race has some tricky upsets potentially

Surprise horse: #1 < was on this horse last week and Luc Roy got shuffled and I think the horse will be stronger and could shave 2-3 seconds of time easily

KEY?: #6 @ 6 - 1 but should put in surprise horse and #7 Doug Hie's horse which had good horsepower and was the nicest looking horse on the track last week!

Figures:  #1467  >> leaving out JMAC's horse #2 because he has tried to moved this horse in 2 different ways or styles and the horse has not responded with consistent speed.

Race 5: - should be a 2 horse battle with best trainers and drivers combined on those 2 horses

Surprise horse(4): #1 and #6 < both drivers are excellent in surprising with trips that bring them close to leaders at the top of the stretch

Shockers: #9 and #10

Figures: #45

Likely playing a Luc Roy wheel with 3-5 tickets and him winning 1-2 races for sure

Think also the Russel Ellis horses could be keys in race #1 or #3 because both raced last week and were bet down hard in both!

GL

I am disappointed I did not capture the #2 in my ticket in the second race.....I am out now on all tickets!!

I do have some long shot pick3's and doubles coming up

This #2 in the second race was 5 wins for 19 and I admit, I missed that!!  Shit  And the horse is trained by Chantal Mitchell who has a habit of bringing new lifetime marks to a horse after a little while of racing (they shave 2-3 seconds off best time)

I was fading #9 to not win 5 races in a row and had the right idea

I liked the potential tonight to hit a nice price. Now I am hoping on a Luc Roy win in the 4th race because I have Doubles into Race #5

No racing for me tonight....will look at the Saturday night card tomorrow

Saturday card: - very cold and NW wind at about 15 mph in their face when they leave and into the 2nd curve of the first turn, they will get a push wind from the NW direction SO horses on the outside that can leave for position just might get to the top 2 positions....keep this in mind 

Race 1: - 4 horse figure and maybe one surprise horse

Surprise horse(s): 8, 9 , 10 << I figure #8 has the best chance as the driver is hot, knows how to get to the front and keep horse interested throughout the race to work some magic down the final last 1/8

Figures: 1235 (add #8 or do a PICK3 key with it)

Race 2: - just need all 3 horses

NO SURPRISES likely...

Figures: 146

Race 3: -many horses can win, but I think 3 horses stand out

Surprise horse: #8 < well bred horse with a nice qualifier and highly regarded

Maybe: 1368

Figures likely: 457

Race 4: - need 2-3 horses here and maybe a 4th if playing a big ticket, including my surprise horse

Surprise horse: #6 < has JMac driving tonight from a very strong small barn when they bring out horses off of a qualifier ...the fact they are putting JMac right away tells me this horse will be ready to compete and it was a nice early horse appearing late last spring before it faced much tougher competition

Shocker: #10 < I know the owner and driver/trainer from my hometown and they work hard at their craft....grew up doing some card games with these lads. Nice horse and you will hear both Randy and Chad gush over it but lets face it....with strong breeds in the middle of the track and excellent drivers, this horse would be a real shocker to pull off the win

Figures: #145

Race 5: - #8's appearance in this race means that the 11 yr old will either steal the race going to the front like it always does no matter where it is on the gate OR IT LIKELY set things up for the two fastest closing horses last week which were #2 and #6 

Shocker: - if any other horse wins but if they do, it will be because all 3 of those horses battled on purpose to tire out and let another shocker horse win

My strategy tonight is either to do a Jodi Jameson gets a win WHEEL and JMAC wheel of the first 4 races where he wins just 1 race and I do doubles on all other races with him in the first 4 races

JMAC TICKETS:

1/ 46 /3456 / 145 / 26

235/1/3456/145/26

235/46/7/145/26

235/46/3456/6/26

All 20 cent and the total cost converted = $41

BackUp plays - Doubles/Pick3s

Race 1 P3 2x .20 cent> 8 / 146/34567 = $6

Race 1 P3 1x 20 cent > 1235 / 146 / 189 = $7.20

Race 3 P3 1x 20 cent > 34567 / 56 / 2345678 = $14

Race 1 Double $3    1 / 1 = $3

Race 2 Double $4    1 / 7 = $4

Race 3 Double $4   7 / 6 = $4

Race 3 Double 

I did add #8 to all of my plays in the first race on the JMAC wheel by the way....because it was bet early and I liked the fact it got blown out last week and its cold tonight. I just got back from the off track and it was a split decision to do so and cost me more money 

 #8 won at 3-1 just now in RACE #1  

My paper tickets:

JMAC TICKETS:

1/ 46 /3456 / 145 / 26

2358/1/3456/145/26

2358/46/7/145/26

2358/46/3456/6/26

All 20 cent and the total cost converted = $47

BackUp plays - Doubles/Pick3s

Race 1 P3 1x 20 cent > 12358 / 146 / 189 = $9

Race 3 P3 1x 20 cent > 13456789 / 156 / 2345678 = $29

Race 1 Double $3    1 / 1 = $3

Race 2 Double $4    1 / 7 = $4

Race 3 Double $4   7 / 6 = $4

Total Cost $96  and then I did a revamp of race 3 pick 3

JMAC won race #2 so I have these tickets alive:

P5 > 2358/1/3456 << no #7/145/26 = paid out $160 but no #7 for me but got DOUBLE below

Race 2 Double $4    1 / 7 = $4 <<< got the DOUBLE and almost all my money back > 

$2 Daily Double 1 / 7 $36.90 x 2 = $73.80

See y'all on Monday if following....

Interesting night of racing on Monday

- snowfall will be regular and wind from SW at a breezy 15-20 mph so drivers that can bring horses 1st over or 2nd over on the last turn should benefit

-tough for horses on the outside to leave and get to the front in this wind, but some might 

-JMAC and Trevor Henry...sometimes Travis Cullen are the very best at this and I anticipate Billy Davis or Bob McClure striking in this driving manner if they have a horse....they are patient and strategic drivers who prefer moving a horse off of a helmet than front end

-not a cold night so horses will perform normally

NOTE: Travis Cullen has only 1 drive tonight and that is on his #3 in the 5th race DROPPING DOWN IN CLASS with one of my favorite horses to drop and pop which is Codename Cigarbox....I have won a nice PICK5 before keying it when it does this no matter what its previous times show ...and I have won. I once left him off in this scenario and it cost me a win of over $3000 a year ago 

Race 1: - #3 dropping down 2 classes since coming back is a KEY perhaps and Billy Davis driving but you really need 5-6 horses at least in my opinion

Surprise Horse: #2 << Dale Spence can steer a horse to shocking wins and this horse likes him as you can tell and it has raced faster in its past

Shocker: #4 or #9 << this is tough race and really almost calls for an ALL

Figures: 123578

Race 2: Well, I cannot believe it!! Colin Kelly who hit that 52-1 for me on a PICK3 and just missed on my PICK5 is racing in the 2nd race with a nice trotter that is 10-1 in the book and this horse has a shot at winning because the horse trotted FREE FOR ALL down in the U.S. and did a 152'4 on a 5/8 track!! #6

Surprise horse: #2 or #7 

Figures: 123456 << I may add the #8 and #9 to be sure

PICK3 use: 89 

Race 3: - KEY #4  and put in #2 with Jodi....its a tough race but I have the driver and trainer of the year last year together in the middle of the gate and this PICK5 will be too big otherwise. I will take my shot on this one and play some PICK3s with Colin Kelly winning this race again (stepping up but #3) or the 2rd race with #6 the trotter

Race 4: need 5 horses but I think you can leave out #5 because its a B-track driver and the horse tires and driver panics it looks like and that is not good at Mohawk down that long finish lane

Figures: 12467

P3 > 589

Race 5: - KEY #3 and #1 

BACKUP P3 or bet flat #2 and #267

My tickets....just got back from OFF TRACK

123578

6 < Colin Kelly key again

24

145678

3

2nd ticket:

13578

12345789

24

147

3

Too many large pick3s to post..

They brought home #7 the fave at 8/5 JMAC in an easy win

1st time in 5 race cards JMAC has won the first leg....I am keeping stats on charts and looking for patterns. Will report patterns after 10 attempts

WOW!!!! 

Coliin Kelly wins again on the #6 BUT this time only 6-1 (10-1 in the book) and I have him KEYED in PICK3 and have ALL ticket in next leg for 20 cent .... 5 horses, him keyed and ALL and a new pick3 with ALL in next race and 5 horses in Race 4 ..... I have in Race 4 > 14567 ....but I do have 89 on tickets starting in race 3 

What I said about Colin Kelly horse tonight between 5 - 6 pm:  "Race 2: Well, I cannot believe it!! Colin Kelly who hit that 52-1 for me on a PICK3 and just missed on my PICK5 is racing in the 2nd race with a nice trotter that is 10-1 in the book and this horse has a shot at winning because the horse trotted FREE FOR ALL down in the U.S. and did a 152'4 on a 5/8 track!! #6"

I now have one ticket alive with him in the PICK5 and with #2 and #4 in this race and then a bunch after ......in race #4 ....see my ticket above

Jesus...having fun and hitting the right surprise horses lately 

First Pick5 I punched in the terminal at the off track tonite:

123578

6 < Colin Kelly key again

24

145678

3

#2 won!! 

I am next with many horses and then last leg #3 with all kinds of backup tickets

Pick3 is only paying out this amount but I get back more than half what I put in

> #2 Rockin N Talkin
 $51.21 (3 of 3)

Its a nice ticket....probably gonna payout a minimum $400 to #3 in Race 5 if it goes favorite in race #4

123578

6 < Colin Kelly key again

24

145678

3

What a shame....I decided to leave #9 out thinking the wind would be bad for the horses and the horse came from dead last and won....

 I only have some pick3's alive but they should pay well

SHIT! You cannot pick all the horses. I tried

I left out Billy Davis and there ya go....he wins a big one in the snow with his driving style