Welcome to Derby week. Yes, we don't know for sure who is running, the track condition or the PP's. However, I want to use this forum for your selection and analysis on why you are wagering or did wager on your Derby winner. I am leaning "Lucky", but would love to nail a "Mine That Bird". Please don't just give me names, but some informative analysis. If your horse wins maybe we can work something out for a small prize, but your work will be rewarded for sure. Go for it !
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Welcome to Derby week. Yes, we don't know for sure who is running, the track condition or the PP's. However, I want to use this forum for your selection and analysis on why you are wagering or did wager on your Derby winner. I am leaning "Lucky", but would love to nail a "Mine That Bird". Please don't just give me names, but some informative analysis. If your horse wins maybe we can work something out for a small prize, but your work will be rewarded for sure. Go for it !
jackson bend-- only horse that has finished in front of him in the preps is esky and those were MAJOR preps-- and he will stalk the early speed sitting 3rd or 4th and will get first run on the closers-- distance huge concern but churchill is the kind of track where true milers can still get classic distance-- mike smith will be on board-- will be totally overlooked at windows and i will build all my exotics around him as long as he gets post 7-15-- win bet also for a few hundred-- hope morning linemaker gives him 30-1ml or higher to keep public away
0
jackson bend-- only horse that has finished in front of him in the preps is esky and those were MAJOR preps-- and he will stalk the early speed sitting 3rd or 4th and will get first run on the closers-- distance huge concern but churchill is the kind of track where true milers can still get classic distance-- mike smith will be on board-- will be totally overlooked at windows and i will build all my exotics around him as long as he gets post 7-15-- win bet also for a few hundred-- hope morning linemaker gives him 30-1ml or higher to keep public away
I have my picks whittled down to 6 out of the 20 or so possibles.
I love Super Saver's race in the Arkansas- he rated and held on gamely-he needed that race as it was his second off layoff- he has Borel in the saddle.
I like Sidney's Candy to win-if he improves or moves forward on dirt then he can pull away from the other front runners-I think he can carry his speed a long way.
I think Looking at Lucky has class, has a great 3 YO foundation-been in trouble and negotiated as well as possible-I see he and Sidney's as being a notch above the rest
If he gets in (boy Im hoping he does) Back talk will be on all of my tickets-think Denis of Cork but more talented. Smarty Jones/mare out of Affirmed- lethal closing kick-his 6f work in Louisiana might as well been a race-huge price flying past Stately Victor and Ice Box as the most talented closer
The filly Devil May Care looks to fit in well here-Stalker/Closer has the running style-In a field where two horses stand above the others it seems like a good spot and she can run for miles
Finally Awesome Act will be on most of my tickets-breeding is flawless- Great style sitting off pace-Leparoux strangled him in the wood and I think he will let him sit closer and more comfortable just off the pace maybe 6-10th.
0
I have my picks whittled down to 6 out of the 20 or so possibles.
I love Super Saver's race in the Arkansas- he rated and held on gamely-he needed that race as it was his second off layoff- he has Borel in the saddle.
I like Sidney's Candy to win-if he improves or moves forward on dirt then he can pull away from the other front runners-I think he can carry his speed a long way.
I think Looking at Lucky has class, has a great 3 YO foundation-been in trouble and negotiated as well as possible-I see he and Sidney's as being a notch above the rest
If he gets in (boy Im hoping he does) Back talk will be on all of my tickets-think Denis of Cork but more talented. Smarty Jones/mare out of Affirmed- lethal closing kick-his 6f work in Louisiana might as well been a race-huge price flying past Stately Victor and Ice Box as the most talented closer
The filly Devil May Care looks to fit in well here-Stalker/Closer has the running style-In a field where two horses stand above the others it seems like a good spot and she can run for miles
Finally Awesome Act will be on most of my tickets-breeding is flawless- Great style sitting off pace-Leparoux strangled him in the wood and I think he will let him sit closer and more comfortable just off the pace maybe 6-10th.
only 2 are chalk- Ill be getting more than 12-1 on all the others. Of course if post positions are bad Ill adjust but im gonna play a 4-way exacta box LARGE with four of those six then a tri-box with all six.
0
only 2 are chalk- Ill be getting more than 12-1 on all the others. Of course if post positions are bad Ill adjust but im gonna play a 4-way exacta box LARGE with four of those six then a tri-box with all six.
Pletcher states Interactif is unlikely to run Saturday.
If Rule and Interactif are not entered in the Derby, that would allow
Jackson Bend and Backtalk to move into the 20-horse field based on
graded stakes earning.
0
Pletcher states Interactif is unlikely to run Saturday.
If Rule and Interactif are not entered in the Derby, that would allow
Jackson Bend and Backtalk to move into the 20-horse field based on
graded stakes earning.
Let's remember this is only one race on Saturdays card @ CD. Don't get carried away with 6 horse boxes and such. 3 yr. olds are a pretty inconsistant bunch and were just 2 yr olds a short 5 months ago. No need to step out here and destroy the bankroll!
I suggest you treat the Derby as any other race for wagering purposes unless you're one of the 3 week a year bettors.
0
WORD OF CAUTION!
Let's remember this is only one race on Saturdays card @ CD. Don't get carried away with 6 horse boxes and such. 3 yr. olds are a pretty inconsistant bunch and were just 2 yr olds a short 5 months ago. No need to step out here and destroy the bankroll!
I suggest you treat the Derby as any other race for wagering purposes unless you're one of the 3 week a year bettors.
Let's remember this is only one race on Saturdays card @ CD. Don't get carried away with 6 horse boxes and such. 3 yr. olds are a pretty inconsistant bunch and were just 2 yr olds a short 5 months ago. No need to step out here and destroy the bankroll!
I suggest you treat the Derby as any other race for wagering purposes unless you're one of the 3 week a year bettors.
I agree, but this is one of the best betting races of the year. If you like a horse, go for it big. The odds will be enticing. Remember you are getting a lot of amateur money, so take advantage.
0
Quote Originally Posted by gambler315:
WORD OF CAUTION!
Let's remember this is only one race on Saturdays card @ CD. Don't get carried away with 6 horse boxes and such. 3 yr. olds are a pretty inconsistant bunch and were just 2 yr olds a short 5 months ago. No need to step out here and destroy the bankroll!
I suggest you treat the Derby as any other race for wagering purposes unless you're one of the 3 week a year bettors.
I agree, but this is one of the best betting races of the year. If you like a horse, go for it big. The odds will be enticing. Remember you are getting a lot of amateur money, so take advantage.
Super Saver will win and here's why, His bloodlines back to the great AP Indy insist that he will have no pronblem with the distance. He is the only horse with a win over the surface at CD and did it in record fashion, granted it was only a G2 race, a record is still a record, and he did that with Borel on his back who will be piloting him in the derby. He's coming back 3rd time off the shelf and has shown increasing Beyers in the last two. This baby is sitting on a huge race and should be looking at about 30-1.
I think the west coast chalk will struggle with the surface switch as they have been at SA and Delmar which are synthetics. Most horses, especially 3yr olds, need a race under their belt on dirt before popping a big effort.
Super Saver at approx 30-1 is my play for the Win.
0
Super Saver will win and here's why, His bloodlines back to the great AP Indy insist that he will have no pronblem with the distance. He is the only horse with a win over the surface at CD and did it in record fashion, granted it was only a G2 race, a record is still a record, and he did that with Borel on his back who will be piloting him in the derby. He's coming back 3rd time off the shelf and has shown increasing Beyers in the last two. This baby is sitting on a huge race and should be looking at about 30-1.
I think the west coast chalk will struggle with the surface switch as they have been at SA and Delmar which are synthetics. Most horses, especially 3yr olds, need a race under their belt on dirt before popping a big effort.
Super Saver at approx 30-1 is my play for the Win.
My top picks right now would be the only horses who have earned a 3-digit Beyer in the entire field. I think Sidney's Candy is being overlooked because of the front-running style but he did rate in an earlier race and drew away. Surface is the question.
My Tuesday longshot is Endorsement who boasts the highest Beyer in the race and will be 20-1 or better. Can you say Charasmatic? Comes off a win in the Sunland Derby--can you say Mine that Bird and if the track is off you get Forty Niner blood on top and A.P. Indy on the bottom. For you old timers- can you say Dust Commander?
0
My top picks right now would be the only horses who have earned a 3-digit Beyer in the entire field. I think Sidney's Candy is being overlooked because of the front-running style but he did rate in an earlier race and drew away. Surface is the question.
My Tuesday longshot is Endorsement who boasts the highest Beyer in the race and will be 20-1 or better. Can you say Charasmatic? Comes off a win in the Sunland Derby--can you say Mine that Bird and if the track is off you get Forty Niner blood on top and A.P. Indy on the bottom. For you old timers- can you say Dust Commander?
My top picks right now would be the only horses who have earned a 3-digit Beyer in the entire field. I think Sidney's Candy is being overlooked because of the front-running style but he did rate in an earlier race and drew away. Surface is the question.
My Tuesday longshot is Endorsement who boasts the highest Beyer in the race and will be 20-1 or better. Can you say Charasmatic? Comes off a win in the Sunland Derby--can you say Mine that Bird and if the track is off you get Forty Niner blood on top and A.P. Indy on the bottom. For you old timers- can you say Dust Commander?
Sidney could be the play with Rule out. Lucky even with the awful trip was not beating him in the SA Derby. Dangerous. Smokin Joe's first Derby ride. Might be too nervous.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Tygermyke:
My top picks right now would be the only horses who have earned a 3-digit Beyer in the entire field. I think Sidney's Candy is being overlooked because of the front-running style but he did rate in an earlier race and drew away. Surface is the question.
My Tuesday longshot is Endorsement who boasts the highest Beyer in the race and will be 20-1 or better. Can you say Charasmatic? Comes off a win in the Sunland Derby--can you say Mine that Bird and if the track is off you get Forty Niner blood on top and A.P. Indy on the bottom. For you old timers- can you say Dust Commander?
Sidney could be the play with Rule out. Lucky even with the awful trip was not beating him in the SA Derby. Dangerous. Smokin Joe's first Derby ride. Might be too nervous.
My top two are out Rule and schoolyard but i would have to say all year jackson bend was my third favorite and bombcapper said exactly what i would so zito has a solid stalker a tiny horse but talent and heart means more then size to me and he has a closer with great kick ice box that to me sounds like a good exacta pick
0
My top two are out Rule and schoolyard but i would have to say all year jackson bend was my third favorite and bombcapper said exactly what i would so zito has a solid stalker a tiny horse but talent and heart means more then size to me and he has a closer with great kick ice box that to me sounds like a good exacta pick
My previous lean was Lookin at Lucky b4 Esky got scratched. Since Esky is out, I had to switch horses cause I don't bet favorites in the Derby. Don't get me wrong, I still believe that Lucky has a good chance to win, but since he will probably be favored, I can not put him on top in a 20 horse field cause there is no value there.
Anyway, even with Rule out there's still a lot of speed in the race and I mean LOTS. I expect to see 1/2 split near 46 or so especially if the track comes up wet(might even see 45 for a 1/2). Due to that, I think that Awesome Act is my best play for the derby! Here's my reasons why I think he is the best play:
1) he's a proven closer in a speed field race
2) this will be his 3rd race off layoff (which usually means it will be his best race)
3) his last race(the Wood) he made a middle move at the top of the stretch to get within a length or so of Esky b4 Esky pulled away in an awesome performance. Awesome Act's trainer said that the Wood was just a prep and he just wanted to get some conditioning in him. Also, he lost a shoe during the race which didn't help his cause, but the horse kept coming!
4) his trainer Jeremy Noseda is a great trainer in Europe and he has also won a breeders cup juvenile on dirt with Wilko back in 04. Also, it appears this was the game plan for Awesome Act to have 2 prep races for the Derby, so everything is a GO on all fronts!!! Meaning the trainer has pointed this horse to peak in the Derby!
5) The PRICE!!! he should be at least 10-1 or more, so that will be very appealing for me!
I'm not sure if he'll win, but at 10-1 or higher he'll have my money on him !!! He's a must use in all exotics too!!!
0
My previous lean was Lookin at Lucky b4 Esky got scratched. Since Esky is out, I had to switch horses cause I don't bet favorites in the Derby. Don't get me wrong, I still believe that Lucky has a good chance to win, but since he will probably be favored, I can not put him on top in a 20 horse field cause there is no value there.
Anyway, even with Rule out there's still a lot of speed in the race and I mean LOTS. I expect to see 1/2 split near 46 or so especially if the track comes up wet(might even see 45 for a 1/2). Due to that, I think that Awesome Act is my best play for the derby! Here's my reasons why I think he is the best play:
1) he's a proven closer in a speed field race
2) this will be his 3rd race off layoff (which usually means it will be his best race)
3) his last race(the Wood) he made a middle move at the top of the stretch to get within a length or so of Esky b4 Esky pulled away in an awesome performance. Awesome Act's trainer said that the Wood was just a prep and he just wanted to get some conditioning in him. Also, he lost a shoe during the race which didn't help his cause, but the horse kept coming!
4) his trainer Jeremy Noseda is a great trainer in Europe and he has also won a breeders cup juvenile on dirt with Wilko back in 04. Also, it appears this was the game plan for Awesome Act to have 2 prep races for the Derby, so everything is a GO on all fronts!!! Meaning the trainer has pointed this horse to peak in the Derby!
5) The PRICE!!! he should be at least 10-1 or more, so that will be very appealing for me!
I'm not sure if he'll win, but at 10-1 or higher he'll have my money on him !!! He's a must use in all exotics too!!!
dont really have a pick at the moment but favoring a closer big time! i just dont see a horse running 22 and change and winning in a mile and a quarter race. seems like more than half of the field will be following pretty close to that fast pace which sets up for a closer. gonna definitely put a few closers for first on all of my tickets n then give the benefit of the doubt to the speedsters to finish no better than 2nd.
gl
0
dont really have a pick at the moment but favoring a closer big time! i just dont see a horse running 22 and change and winning in a mile and a quarter race. seems like more than half of the field will be following pretty close to that fast pace which sets up for a closer. gonna definitely put a few closers for first on all of my tickets n then give the benefit of the doubt to the speedsters to finish no better than 2nd.
Super Saver will win and here's why, His bloodlines back to the great AP Indy insist that he will have no pronblem with the distance. He is the only horse with a win over the surface at CD and did it in record fashion, granted it was only a G2 race, a record is still a record, and he did that with Borel on his back who will be piloting him in the derby. He's coming back 3rd time off the shelf and has shown increasing Beyers in the last two. This baby is sitting on a huge race and should be looking at about 30-1.
I think the west coast chalk will struggle with the surface switch as they have been at SA and Delmar which are synthetics. Most horses, especially 3yr olds, need a race under their belt on dirt before popping a big effort.
Super Saver at approx 30-1 is my play for the Win.
What about Backtalk? 2-2 @ CD. I like Super saver also but this Backtalk is catching my eye.
Currently:
Awesome Act
Endorsement
Backtalk
Lookin at Lucky
0
Quote Originally Posted by Billdogg74:
Super Saver will win and here's why, His bloodlines back to the great AP Indy insist that he will have no pronblem with the distance. He is the only horse with a win over the surface at CD and did it in record fashion, granted it was only a G2 race, a record is still a record, and he did that with Borel on his back who will be piloting him in the derby. He's coming back 3rd time off the shelf and has shown increasing Beyers in the last two. This baby is sitting on a huge race and should be looking at about 30-1.
I think the west coast chalk will struggle with the surface switch as they have been at SA and Delmar which are synthetics. Most horses, especially 3yr olds, need a race under their belt on dirt before popping a big effort.
Super Saver at approx 30-1 is my play for the Win.
What about Backtalk? 2-2 @ CD. I like Super saver also but this Backtalk is catching my eye.
Spark, I wouldn't throw out Lucky just because he is the "favorite". Cashing is better than ripping up tickets. Awesome has a big chance and he had an excuse last out, but how good is he ? Lucky has it all except the high price. Good luck.
0
Spark, I wouldn't throw out Lucky just because he is the "favorite". Cashing is better than ripping up tickets. Awesome has a big chance and he had an excuse last out, but how good is he ? Lucky has it all except the high price. Good luck.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
!!! He's a must use in all exotics too!!!
Hot Forum Topics
