Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

@Last2thirst

 Very interesting system...Cant wait to see how it does .

Early pick 5 handicapping.  Grade key

A. Worth a single in Pick 5/4

B+ Should be the deserving chalk and might be worth a single

B/B- Must include ..Unless a A or B+ really stands out .

C+ Great value on a decent payout..

C. Bombs away ? Probably better off wheeling on the bottom of exotics..

C- take a peak , might blow up the board....Maybe ise if the race is wide open

Tuesday night Woodbine mohawk ..

This looks like a brutal pick 5 to cap ...Some of these legs look wide open...

Race 1.  

1  B-  7  B-

6. C+

3. C 

RACE 2 

9. C+  5 C+

4 C 

10. C-  1. C- 

RACE 3.  

8.  B 

4.  B-  

1.  C+ 

RACE 4 

4 B+ 

9 B-   

3 C+ 

6 C 

RACE 5 

6. B 

7 B- 

5 C+  

2. C- 

So about $86 to play....hmmm 

Thanks for posting that > I thought about how you pick all the time I have noticed over the years and you tend to have a lot of the low odds faves mixing in the mid and occasional high odds. That works decently for you at times but my belief is, the system I have exposed will cut out the expense of playing higher and mid-odds regularly and still get decent payouts that are profitable. I think too....when the system banks some profit after a month, it then might be worthwhile to start playing some supers or triactors with the higher odds for fun and nice additional payouts if they appear

I am going to start the new system. Going to report on the Pick3 income vs cost for the last 100 Pick3s and will let you know what the result is. It will take some time to do this afternoon. If I like it, I am running the system today for $150 in and lets see what happens from it

Hey...new Horseplayer setup....looks good...reports scratches at the top.

I like the PICK5 tonight....will payout well with the larger entries 

Just figured out looking at the first day....its better to play the system for the first 3 races of Pick3s the following way:

7 horses/4 horses/ 3 horses

OK....so when I calculated the winnings using the 7x/4x/3x system....for 1st three races and then from race 3 - race 5 doing the two pick3s of 4x/7x/4x and 4x/4x/7x....

My total came to $942.70 gain vs a COST of $1904 .....so NO POINT PLAYING THE PICK3 wager in all of those races!

Next, since we now know that the 4 lowest odds win a lot in those first 5 races (over 90% of the time from the 100 races I surveyed), I am going to now key on how many times in a 20 cent triactor the 10-1 /15-1 horses hit on a ticket with ALL for 3rd place  so it would look like this: 

4 horses/ 4 horses/ ALL > cost of $25.60 per ticket so investment would be approx. > $25.60

So, you would only do this in races of 9 or 10 horses in the field > so 65 races?

65 races X $25.60 = $1664 cost

I am going to see what the total payouts of all those races are now with the 10-1 odds or higher finishing 2nd place in triactors

Just finished the analysis on triactors.....complete sucker bet!!

67 / 100 last races had 9 or 10 horses entered....I only concentrated on them

20 of the 67 races had > 4 lowest morning line odds winning (5/2 or 3-1 or 7-2 or 9-2) with a mid/high odd horse 2nd!

-but, if you played that ticket for all 67 races, you would be at a loss of -$800  > this tells me, the barns know who is likely going to be at the top trying to win or finish second ....the payouts should be much better than this!

- EXACTOR bets look better but due to the infrequency, I think you would end up losing money or close to even

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

42 of the 67 qualifying races showed:  top 4 lowest fave 1st / top 4 lowest fave 2nd / ALL for third 

Each ticket costs $19.20 and the returns would only bring back enough to lose just under $500

When I look at the EXACTOR payouts, I think it pays much better at $12 per play > 4 horses with 4 horses for $1

Result > 67 races at a loss of $131 ....which is better but not worth playing

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All and all....even when I look at the superfecta....they hit more using morning line top 4 so with the right race, they can pay $300-600....I recorded at least 5 instances

THE BEST VALUE IS BY FAR EFFECTIVE.....PLAYING PICK5 WITH THE SYSTEM I OUTLINED EARLY IN A PREVIOUS POST

I am glad I did this because now it shows me Pick5 is the way to go....and selective superfectas using the morning line

I will post my plays in about an hour

1ST RACE > 

> might just use this race as my 2 or 3 horse play (#7 has an aluminum bike tonight and gets better driver + #1)

> Like other horses that are low odds or maybe upset in this order:

#2

#5 > Sylvain and Brewer have shave 4-5 seconds off a horse from a qualifying race time in the last 2 yrs

#6

-think #1 is the overwhelming fave because I saw its race and it beat two very strong contenders....passed them in a fast half for young horses and beat back 2 challengers and won easy

Race #2

> #5 ...without a doubt, its first race was mighty impressive parked the whole way and did not break and still came home in a decent back half!! 

> #9 figures but has to race flat and just might if it can angle clear everyone

MIGHT JUST TAKE THESE 2 FOR MY 2 PLAY

---------------------------------------------------------

Maybe: 4, 2 , 7 < great connections and McClure...won qualifier by  a mile

Race #3

4 horse race for sure (4 low faves in morning line) > might also need to take 6 + 7

Race #4 

> 4 9 for sure and have to throw in 10-1 morning line #2 who was favourite last week and has JMAC driving

Race #5

68 for sure and might have to use other low morning lines faves #7 and #5 based on their trainer records and being 'close'

BOL buddy

System worked until the last race. I put it on top in triactor and super to back up and it paid well

I am going to cap Thursday card later tonight I think

Different strategy tonight unless the capping lines up well to the  >  4 x 4x 3x 3x 2x selections of horses in what ever order you see the 4 lowest morning line odds

I might just pick 2 of the lowest morning line odds and 1 of the morning line odds and play two large tickets that way so you can invite more 6 to 10-1 odds horses which would catch horses like the #1 in the 5th race on Tuesday

Lets see what shakes out and will post here

This one tonight has the potential to pay very well despite really only having one pure KEY to my estimation and that is the #2 horse in Race 3 with Elegant Mermaid (Sylvain and Benoit B. combo...saw this race...looks like a choo choo trotter!

System in play and adding some extra horses....backing up with 1 PICK3 and 1 superfecta:

Race 1 > 238

Also: $2 Pick 3    235678 / 1679 / 3    (cost $24)

Race 2  > 1679

Race 3  > 2 

Superfecta (just in case it breaks) >   156 / 156 / 15679 / 145678910 (cost $14)

Race 4  > 1234578

Race 5  > 12468   

COST = $84 Pick5  / $24 Pick3 / $14 superfecta ....all these picks are subject to change after the equip/scratches/driver changes are announced  since that could change my view of things

BOL 

Going almost with what I picked but added 567 in the first leg and then dropped #2 in the last leg which I back up!

I then dropped #1 and #6 in the 2nd leg and then did a 2nd....all the best tonight D-UP. Let's get this 

235678 / 79 / 2 / 1234578/ 1468 

2368 / 16 / 2 / 23578/ 1468

$88 in Pick5's plus the other two bets.

I really would like to hit one Pick5 every 2-3 meets if I can and decided to spend some money  with a worthy KEY. Its really hard to have a 2 yr old lose when its heads above unless a driver change, sloppy track or bad driving and Sylvain will not do that for Ben B. in race #3

Wow....I am out!

They have brought in 2 long shots in two meets in a row....#8 won easily at 17-1

Now I hope for an upset in the 3rd race unless you are alive and had #8 in the 2nd race?

I am alive here....spent $36 ......got #6 keyed here and then 1 3 5 in the last leg

I am leaking badly and need a win

1 morning line fave has hit already so my chances are good

3 Meets in a row this week with no all Top 4 morning line horses winning each of the 5 races. That's unusual and I think the reason is, young horses have been racing so I am going to change that strategy on them when the card has a lot of them in the first Pick5

Tonight, things should play out for the system as only 2 of 5 races are stakes > Grassroots ...and I find they do a good job picking out the winners on paper especially if they are 3 yr olds like tonight

Doing the capping now. I will present also 1- 2 non-top 4 morning line horses if I feel in a race they could contend and win

@Last2thirst

 FYI.We are getting a lot of rain today & heavy thunderstorms this evening.

@gr8ma8

 Ya....I know so I am going to take things easy with that in mind. Horses that can close on the outside tend to win or come off the rail in the 3 or 4 hole ....leaders tend to shit the bed in the stretch

Thanks for pointing that out  

Severe thunderstorm call as well and winds picking up to 45 kmh during race 3-6 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/hourly-weather-forecast/ontario/campbellville?no_alert_redirect=2021-7-24

PICK3's with longshots may be the way to go but going to post a ticket

Race 1 - throw a dart ! I see 8 horses have a shot....playing the following and doing a Back Pick3 with the others

124510

Maybe (P3) > 378

Race 2 - 5 contenders > think you only need the two 

#1 may not like the slop despite being a NZ bred horse > might leave out...mulling

#5 should romp here with its closing speed and lack of need to front end the race to begin

#3 could fall into it with Sylvain driving and its close to the pace with good finishing kick...has to go in

If weather would be good > would take #6 ...its ready to pop and like #2 a little so gonna show an upset ticket 

Race 3 - should only be one horse and especially with the conditions. I saw  #3 Jimmy ConnorB race well on sloppy track in a previous line not being show...monster closer!

- I think with the track condition and driver/trainer/breeds available....only #9 figures in here to give a challenge

Race 4 - I think #9 is healthy finally  plus dropping .....but I have burned so much cash keying this horse already

-yes, #1, 4 and #10 could close in the end

Race 5 _ need 4 horses for sure....and 2 maybes

Need > 1 5 9 10

Maybe > 7 11

40 cent play > 124510 / 356 / 3 / 14910 / 159 10

20 cent play > 124510 / 356 / 9 / 4910/ 159 10

Race 1 pick3 > 378 / 356 / 39 > $1 for #3, 40 cent for #9

BOL

Leaving #10 out...going with #7 who looks real good on the track

45 battle down lane....#5 won

I seriously thought #4 was a nice longshot to include....$130 000 paid as a yearly and just needs the right race and driver to wake it up

Stay on Beachin Lindy for the next while....Charlton did something different on his training track as last week, the horse came flying late with the trainer driving so thats why it was fave this week. With only 1 win in 2 years, it was tough to key this horse in bottom NW category. He may have found the button 

Race #2 - He's Swift #5 .....just has the other gear when a horse needs it down the lane in a tough race! The most impressive thing is, it raced in the muck most of the race and got dirt kicked up in its eye but still came out when its stablemate wanted to take of the race (#1) and just hit another gear. The horse loves to win! 

It will be a free-for aller and a good one!

Some owners make the mistake of going for NAC/Metro etc and you can kill a horses confidence getting beat by better horses regularly so I think Auciello has this horse pegged just right

Race #3 .....do a longhot wheel triactor of # 1 and #10....both look like a monster on the track...especially #10!

40 cent triactors:

3 / 1, 10 / All 

3 / ALL / 1, 10