TUESDAY NIGHT plays: - if capping, consider outside posts will be tough at times to reach the finish line with a North wind blowing at 10-12 mph at times from the North tonight.....they will be EASY to get to the front however, if trying for positions as that push wind will assist them on their move into the first turn.....don't shy away from outside posts if the horses can move off of the gate....like #9 last night!!
MY PLAYS:
Ticket #1
> Key #4 in Race 1 ...races in highest class and very impressive two races ago from outside
....if playing this way, TAKE: 4 / 27 / 34568 / 256789 / 159 ... if #4 gets beat, you wait for Race 3 and play the last 3 legs on a 20 cent ticket which would cost $18 for a 20 cent play .....maybe even start a Pick4 in race 4 using the last 2 legs of that ticket and handicap horses for race 6 and 7
Cost = $36 for Pick5 above
Also, longshot Pick3 that covers Race 3 longshot race potential ... 40-60c for race 1: #4 / #2, 7 / 129 = $2.40 to 3.60
PICK5 Ticket #2 I am playing > 23456 / 27 / 358 / 256789 / 5 = $36
Total Cost = $74 - 76 for what I am playing
GOOD LUCK....I often hit a couple of wins in a row when I get thinking like the way I am ....looking for a race I think they might fool around in and that is Race 3 and 4
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
TUESDAY NIGHT plays: - if capping, consider outside posts will be tough at times to reach the finish line with a North wind blowing at 10-12 mph at times from the North tonight.....they will be EASY to get to the front however, if trying for positions as that push wind will assist them on their move into the first turn.....don't shy away from outside posts if the horses can move off of the gate....like #9 last night!!
MY PLAYS:
Ticket #1
> Key #4 in Race 1 ...races in highest class and very impressive two races ago from outside
....if playing this way, TAKE: 4 / 27 / 34568 / 256789 / 159 ... if #4 gets beat, you wait for Race 3 and play the last 3 legs on a 20 cent ticket which would cost $18 for a 20 cent play .....maybe even start a Pick4 in race 4 using the last 2 legs of that ticket and handicap horses for race 6 and 7
Cost = $36 for Pick5 above
Also, longshot Pick3 that covers Race 3 longshot race potential ... 40-60c for race 1: #4 / #2, 7 / 129 = $2.40 to 3.60
PICK5 Ticket #2 I am playing > 23456 / 27 / 358 / 256789 / 5 = $36
Total Cost = $74 - 76 for what I am playing
GOOD LUCK....I often hit a couple of wins in a row when I get thinking like the way I am ....looking for a race I think they might fool around in and that is Race 3 and 4
Got a double later in race 6/7 ....paid $124 for a $20 bet and passed it onto the misses for spending on herself today when we went shopping for back to work.....
Thats another tip I always encourage. When you are running warm/hot on the horses...spread some cash around...give to the local person begging for money, a loved one, etc.....it works, makes you feel good and if you get on a losing streak, you still know you did good along the way! Being kind is part of being a successful gambler
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Got a double later in race 6/7 ....paid $124 for a $20 bet and passed it onto the misses for spending on herself today when we went shopping for back to work.....
Thats another tip I always encourage. When you are running warm/hot on the horses...spread some cash around...give to the local person begging for money, a loved one, etc.....it works, makes you feel good and if you get on a losing streak, you still know you did good along the way! Being kind is part of being a successful gambler
Bone dry and North wind at sustained 10 mph+ and gusts up to 18 mph ...both very slightly going down
Advantage:
-cooler temps + North wind = front speed especially because closers or first up have to come into the wind on the final turn at the top of the stretch ....unless covered up and could sneak up the rail somehow
-front speed even from outside posts will get push wind into the first turn to first QUARTER
-I generally do well with these conditions because it is harder to barn cheat
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Thursday Weather conditions for Mohawk
Bone dry and North wind at sustained 10 mph+ and gusts up to 18 mph ...both very slightly going down
Advantage:
-cooler temps + North wind = front speed especially because closers or first up have to come into the wind on the final turn at the top of the stretch ....unless covered up and could sneak up the rail somehow
-front speed even from outside posts will get push wind into the first turn to first QUARTER
-I generally do well with these conditions because it is harder to barn cheat
Playing> 20 cent > 134 / 1256 / 127 / 2310 / 12410 = $86.20 ....I am fishing for an upset and if I get 2 medium favourites in race 1 or 2 and one later....this will pay huge because everyone is going to key the #5 in race 2 and what if the horse breaks or gets beat
60 cent pick3 > 34567 / 15 / 27 = $12
$1 P3 > 567 / 15 / 1 = $6
I am also playing a 80cent play > 13 / 5 / 127 / 2310 / 24 = $28.80
Good luck
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Playing> 20 cent > 134 / 1256 / 127 / 2310 / 12410 = $86.20 ....I am fishing for an upset and if I get 2 medium favourites in race 1 or 2 and one later....this will pay huge because everyone is going to key the #5 in race 2 and what if the horse breaks or gets beat
60 cent pick3 > 34567 / 15 / 27 = $12
$1 P3 > 567 / 15 / 1 = $6
I am also playing a 80cent play > 13 / 5 / 127 / 2310 / 24 = $28.80
GEEZ....I have rarely seen a horse on the track that makes me go WOW!!! and I think VENERABLE (#5 in Race 2) as a 2 yr old did that like SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE did back almost 15 yrs ago......Miller took the horse on a humongous hold to the 4 hold....I swear, this horse looked like a Free for aller as a 2 yr old......and then moved the horse on the final curve for the straight away and the horse gobbled up 5 lengths in less than 2 seconds and won under wraps by 5+ lengths
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
GEEZ....I have rarely seen a horse on the track that makes me go WOW!!! and I think VENERABLE (#5 in Race 2) as a 2 yr old did that like SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE did back almost 15 yrs ago......Miller took the horse on a humongous hold to the 4 hold....I swear, this horse looked like a Free for aller as a 2 yr old......and then moved the horse on the final curve for the straight away and the horse gobbled up 5 lengths in less than 2 seconds and won under wraps by 5+ lengths
Southeast wind switching to Northeast after the first or 2nd race so tactically, it doesn't change much as both winds are ideal for moves at the half, 3Q or at the top of the lane.....I like closers a lot tonight!!
Wind speed is mild about 10 mph tops so the Easterly wind is not hugely favourably for horses going to the front BUT it can help them a little but tonight those winds DO NOT affect 1st over or 2nd over moves by aggressive drivers
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Friday Harness conditions:
Southeast wind switching to Northeast after the first or 2nd race so tactically, it doesn't change much as both winds are ideal for moves at the half, 3Q or at the top of the lane.....I like closers a lot tonight!!
Wind speed is mild about 10 mph tops so the Easterly wind is not hugely favourably for horses going to the front BUT it can help them a little but tonight those winds DO NOT affect 1st over or 2nd over moves by aggressive drivers
Kicken Cowgirl is a youngish mare with tons of potential and now that Moreau is holding the keys, watch for this horse to begin to dominate and climb the ladder with the colder weather ....Moreau is the best cooler/cold weather trainer around in my view, over the past 10 years I have seen him dominate during that seasonal time.
Now add Sylvain to the mix ....$$$
I might be eyeing a couple more in there too to put in my Pick5 but in the early stages of thinking about races
Bye the way, if you are playing a Pick5....the tendency on a Friday or any other night when they bring in a lot of early mid range price or long shots in earlier races is to bring home the chalky fave in Race #5 to help someone in the barn get their nice payout (or for the drivers who might have a nice golf round and drinks lined up)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
@Bruins4Life
Yes, she is beatable.
Kicken Cowgirl is a youngish mare with tons of potential and now that Moreau is holding the keys, watch for this horse to begin to dominate and climb the ladder with the colder weather ....Moreau is the best cooler/cold weather trainer around in my view, over the past 10 years I have seen him dominate during that seasonal time.
Now add Sylvain to the mix ....$$$
I might be eyeing a couple more in there too to put in my Pick5 but in the early stages of thinking about races
Bye the way, if you are playing a Pick5....the tendency on a Friday or any other night when they bring in a lot of early mid range price or long shots in earlier races is to bring home the chalky fave in Race #5 to help someone in the barn get their nice payout (or for the drivers who might have a nice golf round and drinks lined up)
Notice Moreau did not put #2 in race 5 into another claimer?? That to me confirms what I am thinking.....they want to see this horse's TOP and that means pushing its go button and class climbing. I bet you Jack Moiseyev is gonna be kicking himself later this winter for letting the horse go a little while back into claim races!
Another observation....just noticed. When Kickin dropped and popped at 12000 NW, it pushed a 54'4 half and so did Queso Relleno last week with Filion on board ....now Sylvain goes off to take Kickin? Why go off a winning horse which often go back to back off of a winning bottom level win ?
#3 might have to go in especially with McNair steering and I bet he will be aggressive!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Notice Moreau did not put #2 in race 5 into another claimer?? That to me confirms what I am thinking.....they want to see this horse's TOP and that means pushing its go button and class climbing. I bet you Jack Moiseyev is gonna be kicking himself later this winter for letting the horse go a little while back into claim races!
Another observation....just noticed. When Kickin dropped and popped at 12000 NW, it pushed a 54'4 half and so did Queso Relleno last week with Filion on board ....now Sylvain goes off to take Kickin? Why go off a winning horse which often go back to back off of a winning bottom level win ?
#3 might have to go in especially with McNair steering and I bet he will be aggressive!
Race 5 > #1 will stay on the rail, he is no dummy as he now knows his golfing/trip buddy will likely be aggressive thinking thats the way for this horse to win ....Sylvain will be aggressive and so too might Laura Love thinking she is the reigning queen dropping down so that opens the door for a horse to come up the rail....enter JMAC on the #1
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Race 5 > #1 will stay on the rail, he is no dummy as he now knows his golfing/trip buddy will likely be aggressive thinking thats the way for this horse to win ....Sylvain will be aggressive and so too might Laura Love thinking she is the reigning queen dropping down so that opens the door for a horse to come up the rail....enter JMAC on the #1
The more I look at it, yes #5 is the horse to beat in theory and I think Kickin girl has a trainer/driver/tightner combo to improve and do a 150'3 kind of time and win this race with it close with Laura's Love
Only other trainer I can see improving a horse is Alagna but you know when his horses are ready by their times or dropping DOWN after a tightener and yes that is the case here, but Lady Lou does not show a recent win off of a 122'3 third Q like Kickin Cowgirl....that is how good this horse could be and now with Moreau getting even more.
I expect the #5 to do 151 flat tonight and I have to find a horse that I think can too....so far, I am leaning to not including #1 and #3 and just going with 25 in Race #5
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
The more I look at it, yes #5 is the horse to beat in theory and I think Kickin girl has a trainer/driver/tightner combo to improve and do a 150'3 kind of time and win this race with it close with Laura's Love
Only other trainer I can see improving a horse is Alagna but you know when his horses are ready by their times or dropping DOWN after a tightener and yes that is the case here, but Lady Lou does not show a recent win off of a 122'3 third Q like Kickin Cowgirl....that is how good this horse could be and now with Moreau getting even more.
I expect the #5 to do 151 flat tonight and I have to find a horse that I think can too....so far, I am leaning to not including #1 and #3 and just going with 25 in Race #5
Race #5 - #5 could be a key but gonna definitely take #2 .....Laura's Love did 25'3 final quarter in a qualifier ...wow!
Shocker horses: #7 might be added as I see something in Phil Hudon this year in the way he is steering the horse around the track has me impressed
#10 - Mark McDonald has longshot bringing home capabilities down the lane and I think this race might have some crazy speed in it and you never know with this horse....I cap horses with Michael Goldberg (owner) or I should say, used to and this is the type of race he would be quiet and up and betting across on as he sees the speed that will likely happen since McClure wants to be safe when he moves a horse and probably will send the horse on a move to the top with this much back class ... Sylvain might have something to say about that and McNair on a speed battle...maybe even Drury shaking things up with its dropping horse....same with Hudon who has been more aggressive
Race #4 - McNair is no dummy as he will want to impress Nancy Takter for stakes drives with #3 down the road if some Americans don't want to come up .... #7 has to go in with JMAC and 4-0 record
Longshots/upset horse
-#6 > we don't actually know how good this horse can be on a big track since its first race was a 10 hole vs some other monsters including #7 in this race
- #5 intrigues me a lot ....raced only 5 days ago and now Sylvain drives in a stakes race ....helluva tightner on a B-track to go 3 wide and win and the trainer owns the horse in a small stable that is well known to look after its horses and drop crazy time reductions early on
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Race #5 - #5 could be a key but gonna definitely take #2 .....Laura's Love did 25'3 final quarter in a qualifier ...wow!
Shocker horses: #7 might be added as I see something in Phil Hudon this year in the way he is steering the horse around the track has me impressed
#10 - Mark McDonald has longshot bringing home capabilities down the lane and I think this race might have some crazy speed in it and you never know with this horse....I cap horses with Michael Goldberg (owner) or I should say, used to and this is the type of race he would be quiet and up and betting across on as he sees the speed that will likely happen since McClure wants to be safe when he moves a horse and probably will send the horse on a move to the top with this much back class ... Sylvain might have something to say about that and McNair on a speed battle...maybe even Drury shaking things up with its dropping horse....same with Hudon who has been more aggressive
Race #4 - McNair is no dummy as he will want to impress Nancy Takter for stakes drives with #3 down the road if some Americans don't want to come up .... #7 has to go in with JMAC and 4-0 record
Longshots/upset horse
-#6 > we don't actually know how good this horse can be on a big track since its first race was a 10 hole vs some other monsters including #7 in this race
- #5 intrigues me a lot ....raced only 5 days ago and now Sylvain drives in a stakes race ....helluva tightner on a B-track to go 3 wide and win and the trainer owns the horse in a small stable that is well known to look after its horses and drop crazy time reductions early on
#2 has first time Montini training and he is real good with high level mares so the horse is close and you get a bonus driver change that I like ....first time Jodi who drives for Montini most of the time! The horse did a 54' half so expect this horse to go to the lead and slow things down a little more as the #4 horse is dropping down and can close well!
#4 -loved this horse last week despite being off for a while and now the horse is dropping down 2 levels and in regular weekly rotation now after last week....... I have not seen Cullen winning much lately and with the Grand Circuit races now taking up a lot of forthcoming cards, the pickings to earn $$ are going to be slim for him so I expect this horse to likely win or battle for 1-2 position the whole way down the lane!
#6 and #8 dropping down also !! ....both will leave and likely #2 so this race is going to be interesting....lean to #6 more with post position and better driver
Will check equipment/driver changes and suggest a ticket to play
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Race 1 - see some things here for instance:
#2 has first time Montini training and he is real good with high level mares so the horse is close and you get a bonus driver change that I like ....first time Jodi who drives for Montini most of the time! The horse did a 54' half so expect this horse to go to the lead and slow things down a little more as the #4 horse is dropping down and can close well!
#4 -loved this horse last week despite being off for a while and now the horse is dropping down 2 levels and in regular weekly rotation now after last week....... I have not seen Cullen winning much lately and with the Grand Circuit races now taking up a lot of forthcoming cards, the pickings to earn $$ are going to be slim for him so I expect this horse to likely win or battle for 1-2 position the whole way down the lane!
#6 and #8 dropping down also !! ....both will leave and likely #2 so this race is going to be interesting....lean to #6 more with post position and better driver
Will check equipment/driver changes and suggest a ticket to play
2468 / 13457 / 3456789 / 37 / 25 = $112 or $56 keying #5 ....I think though this ticket with just keying #5 in last race is a nice play too and should pay out around $300 - $800 for a 20 cent play depending on what happens in the first 3 races of the Pick5
If keying LAURA'S LOVE, I think you only have to bet #2 to beat it as a BACKUP win play if your ticket makes it there.... as McClure usually brings home a horse that is dropping that he drives regularly and they will move up the class ladder after the race....he doesn't screw around for trainers especially when they have good young 2 yr old horses like Pentland does
Pick3 race 2 ...20 cent > 13457 / 3-9 / 56 =$14 (this would pay well depending on what happened in 1st and 2nd leg
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
Got the makings of a big payout tonight:
2468 / 13457 / 3456789 / 37 / 25 = $112 or $56 keying #5 ....I think though this ticket with just keying #5 in last race is a nice play too and should pay out around $300 - $800 for a 20 cent play depending on what happens in the first 3 races of the Pick5
If keying LAURA'S LOVE, I think you only have to bet #2 to beat it as a BACKUP win play if your ticket makes it there.... as McClure usually brings home a horse that is dropping that he drives regularly and they will move up the class ladder after the race....he doesn't screw around for trainers especially when they have good young 2 yr old horses like Pentland does
Pick3 race 2 ...20 cent > 13457 / 3-9 / 56 =$14 (this would pay well depending on what happened in 1st and 2nd leg
...good profit
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