Belmont 2019 Analysis and Picks

First breaking news this morning (June 8) from Horseracingnation.com:

“The New York State Gaming Commission website that lists treatments for contenders in million-dollar stakes races indicated Tacitus received an IV to combat ‘upper respiratory mucus.’”

“Daily Racing Form reporter Jay Privman spoke with trainer Bill Mott’s vet, who said a “tiny, tiny bit” of mucus was detected, and it was “probably trainer overkill trying to keep the airway totally clean.” This week, others in the field were given bute, designed to combat inflammation, according to the commission website. Master Fencer was treated for dehydration, while the document shows Tax received acupuncture leading up to the race.”

Hard to imagine that this race was first run in 1868 years before the first Kentucky Derby. The ghosts of Secretariat, Sir BARTON, Man O’ War, Citation and Whirlaway loom, but hardly mentioned in the same breath as Everfast or Joevia.

ard HaNot the best Belmont field we've seen over the past twenty years, but a competitive one, indeed. Led by War of Will, coming off a terrific Preakness run, and Tacitus, who seems ready to pop the cork off the bottle, there are others very capable of beating the field. Always a grueling race, sometimes as tough as the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont is the true test of champions.

Lots of talk this week about Master Fencer, Sir Winston and Intrepid Heart, all one needs to do is check past races where horses of their ilk won, including Summer Bird, Drosslemeyer and Da’Tara, winners in the past ten years.

So let’s see what we got…….

#1 Joevia………He’s raced against some good ones, including finishing second to Alwaysmining (lost by nearly 7L) in a $100K ALW, and second to Haikal in the Jimmy Winkfield. Telltale is the Wood, in which he finished a paltry 7^th (placed 11^th thru DQ) thirteen lengths out while hitting a 78 Beyer. The switch to Lezcano to ride is a positive and his win last out in the Long Branch at Monmouth was a good one. Hard to believe he is ducking Maximum Security in the Haskell or Pegasus for this, but, all things considered, it might be the right move for trainer Greg Sacco. A piece might be hard to swallow, but an under at 17-1 (as of 10 am Eastern on Saturday) might be worth the extra coinage, if you are a bettin’ man…….and you ARE a bettin’ man! Possible early pace-setter.

#2 Everfast……..I called this guy every disparaging term I could think of before the Preakness. I questioned the sanity of trainer Dale Romans for putting him in the race. He finished second. I guess that’s why Dale Romans is a multi-million dollar conditioner, and why I am relegated to writing horse racing blogs! Most are not giving the son of the great Take Charge Indy a chance. But, after seven graded stakes tries, maybe the light went on in his eighth stakes, the Preakness. {Note: He did finish second in the Holy Bull to Harvey Walbanger}. Everfast came on like a freight train under Rosario in the Preakness to close. If you study his form, it seems like he’s always needed the added footage. At a mile-and-a half today, he gets it. The switch to Saez in the strap is OK by me. I will include as a live under at current odds of 13-1.

#3 Master Fencer…….What to make of this guy? The son of Just Away (by Sunday Silence), the Japanese import shocked many, including me, for his Kentucky Derby run earning a 96 Beyer after placing seventh. Lots of credit to rider Leparoux, who gets the mount today. Tons of buzz the last 10 days out of Elmont, until he stumbled a bit in a work a few days ago. He will need a decent pace to win this with the jockey having a Swiss precision watch in his brain. A foreign born horse hasn’t won the race since Canadian Victory Gallop in 1998. None from Japan have won. At 10-1 today, a small risk, but a possibility for some, if his bad work doesn’t affect him.

#4 Tax……..The gelding was horse-ona non-grata in the Derby finishing 15^th before the take down. Coming off a minor foot injury in a work for this doesn’t help his cause, but I am certain the $50K claimer is sound, otherwise his connections wouldn’t run him in such a demanding race. The move to Irad in the saddle might bode well as the jock is 19 percent wins at the track. I Ortiz and trainer Gargan are 15 percent in 27 races since 2018. The horse has speed, as he has hit 90+ Beyer’s several times. My question is about the son of Arch being able to get the distance. Tax will need to return to his Withers race to compete today. Even at his current 10-1 odds, I will not use.

#5 Bourbon War…….Potential Super Star or Classic Underachiever? Note that fourteen winners of the Belmont have sired first-placers in the race. Bourbon is a son of Tapit, great for the Belmont, as the sire has produced three winners of the race, Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit, as well as second place and third place finishers. Sounds like blinkers were a mistake in the Preakness, so those go back into storage. The horse sorely needs the pace as he is simply too slow in the first quarter. However, if he gets ramped up at the big distance, look out! What’s more, closer-extraordinaire Mike Smith rides for Mark Henning. Not sure he can pull off the upset, but Bourbon War can certainly make the finish very interesting. A must-include for me. Oh, BTW……Smith has won this three times. Last year on Justify. 8-1 as of this morning.

#6 Spinoff……..I have been hoping for this horse forever, waiting for him to run his race. Not sure what to make of him with Todd Pletcher’s comments about the colt as enthusiastic as a teenager on his way to the dentist to get his wisdom teeth pulled! For backers of Spinoff and Intrepid Heart, the trainer is 23/3-5-4 in Belmont Stakes. Spinoff’s Kentucky Derby effort was listless, at best, but excuse after excuse, with the slop an alleged contributor. I think he just didn’t want to be there. Nonetheless, prior to L’vlle, he hadn’t finished less than third. Castellano is up, a true tactician, who will need to keep the animal somewhat off the pace. I would love to pick him for win, but even my infertile brain is fighting my heart. I will include at 12-1 as of today.

# 7 Sir Winston……..An eye-popping 100 Beyer in the Peter Pan makes one sit up and take notice. Winston finished second to Global Campaign in that race, but acquitted himself quite well. This is the Awesome Again colt’s sixth graded stakes with his record at 6/0-1-1. While hitting the century mark in the Pan is notable, his best Beyer until then, was an 88, not the greatest of speed among this bunch. He tends to plod a bit, so, perhaps, he and Bourbon War can stroll hoof-in-hoof before both make, what I expect, hard charges for the wire. While he seems to like the track, not nuts over his 8-1 this morning, but I will look for clues. Note…..5/0-1-0 on dirt. Rosario is in the leather for Preakness winner Mark Casse.

#8 Intrepid Heart……..The second of Todd’s entourage, and the second Tapit here, lightly raced colt, a $750K OBS seller, might be the trainer’s surprise du’ jour. The boy has hit two consecutive 90s finishing third in the Peter Pan after stumbling and taking air at the end. Check that race, because he might have offered better. This is IH’s third race in seven weeks and, despite the toughness of the race, I will trust in Todd on this one. Not saying he is the next light-raced Always Dreaming or Max, but, for me, he is a major could-be at 6-1. Johnny V up, always a good thing, as he has won it twice. Blinkers on with the trainer 16 percent wins with first time shades and 16 percent lifetime with the blinks.

#9 War of Will……..Why do so many want to toss this guy after his great Preakness? He is a “whopping” 4-1 this morning, which plays well for backers, considering he started off at 2-1. Let’s start by reminding ourselves that he was driving at the end in Baltimore with no hint of wanting to stop. He’s out of War Front, a horse that is not known for distance, but he’s backed up by a Sadler’s Wells dam, which says “run all day.“ With a jockey whose confidence and skills have never been better, what is there against? First of all, if he sits second or third, and if they get a pace, will it hurt his chances to close? Will the horse expend some energy from the 9-hole that will hurt his closing chances? As the only colt to run in all three Triple Crown races, will his chances be diminished by running three tough ones in five weeks? Maybe, but, as we have seen in many Belmont’s, front runners with cheaper speed often die young. I’ll bet on the jockey’s skills and the colt’s heart. My pick for win.

#10 Tacitus……..Ooooooooooooh how the pundits and locals want the home tracker is to win, almost willing it to happen. He is 2-1 as of this moment, but we might see 9-5 or 8-5 by the time the bell rings. OK. I’ll keep my mouth shut. This is a great horse, make no mistake about it and, I think, the deserved favorite. His record coming in is great and his Derby was outstanding!  And, he’s a Tapit. Note that 2 of the last 13 Belmont favorites have won. You can’t fault HOF trainer Mott for being enthusiastic about his chances, especially with Jose Ortiz in the driver’s seat. Tacitus work here has been terrific. Don’t cash your tickets yet, but, unless it goes hinky near the end, or if WILL has his way, or if the mucus is not an issue, he has the look of a winner.

MY PICKS:

#9 War of Will $50 to win and $100 to place

#8 Intrepid Heart $20 to win and $40 to place

#10 Tacitus……..I will bet to WIN, if 2-1 or better

$20 exacta straight: 9-10

$14 exacta straight: 10-9

$10 exacta straight: 10-8

$6 exacta key: 8/9, 10

$4 exacta: 9/5,7$6 tri wheel: 9/5,7,8,10/2,5,6,7,8,9,10

$6 tri wheel: 9/5,7,8,10/2,5,6,7,8,9,10

$3 tri wheel: 10/5,7,8,9/2,5,6,7,8,9,10

$1tri wheel: 8/5,7,9,10/2,5,6,7,9,10

GL TO AL!