anyone want to talk derby?

i like tiz. ny traffic,enforceable honor ap, art collector

Tiz The Law should be even money by post time. We gotta figure out Exactas and Tris. They are offering .10 cent supers for the first time ever. Do you feel Lucky?

No Art Collector. Bummer!

art collector, was my second  pick

So, the top 3 horses are 16, 17, 18?

Wouldn't be surprised to see Paco & Money Mike push Manny as wide as possible.

Assman picks up the trainer duties on #2 Max Player from Linda Rice.

#16 Honor A.P trainer John Shirreffs thinks his last race was too short & he'll like the longer distance.

Johnny V hops up on #18 Authentic but I don't know if this guy can get the distance.

#6 King Guillermo had a bullet blowout 5f work on 8/22 going 58.20  & ran a nice 2nd in the ARK Derby to Nadal & #1 Finnick the Fierce got 3rd.

#15 Ny Traffic has me as a fan because of the SFLA connections & with another jump he would have caught Authentic in the Haskell. He gave up the lead to Maxfield @ Churchill & couldn't catch Wells Bayou three races back. Secondnitis concerns me.

Just a few quick observations.

Florent Geroux gets a great pickup mount on #10 Thousand Word for Lidocaine Bob Baffert.

#11 Necker Island is 0-7 this year but does have 2 wins over the track. He was formerly trained by one of my favorites, Stanley Hough, but he's in tough.

All these colts are 4 months older than they would have been back in May. They are physically bigger, more mature on the track & mentally more experienced. Having said that, Tiz the Law seems to be so much more talented than the rest of the field.

People looking to beat Tiz will point out his race @ Churchill in the slop when he ran 3rd. All great horses get beat eventually but I don't think that will happen Saturday. 

The trick is to find a colt that is peaking now, that is primed for their best effort & with the best racing strategy to beat Tiz. That's where the sharpest trainers and jocks come into play. I don't know if at this point, workouts will tell us that much unless it's a horrible work. Any plan will have to include annoying Tiz the Law stalking racing style IMO. Traffic is always an issue & never has a colt won the Derby from post #17. The last odds-on favorite to win the Derby was Spectacular Bid in 1973. 

Just some other stuff to consider...

Don't know if I can post this so I apologize in advance Covers but...

TwinSpires is offering a 15% bonus on deposits with a max bonus of 50 clams up to 5 pm on  Derby day.

FYI..Vegas players will only be allowed to wager on the Oaks & Derby & not the entire Churchill cards due to a take-out disagreement between the casinos & CDI (Churchill Downs Inc).

Limits will also be in place on mutuel payoffs. Just WPS, exacta & quinella wagering will be available since the books will be responsible for winners as they will not be part of the pari-mutuel pool.

Hopefully they'll do what is best for the players & get this settled. 

king guillermo win

I know this has nothing to do with the Derby,, but Pneumatic will win the Preak

#6 King Guillermo has scratched with a fever.

Pletcher has only Money Moves running this weekend in the Derby @ Churchill but is loaded for bear @ the SPA with a number for owner Mike Repole.

At Churchill, Joe Talamo had to make a ton of riding decisions on both Friday & Saturday's cards. You'll notice that as you cap the races.

We have an early 11 am post time tomorrow @ Churchill.

And in this craziest of years, my King G. longshot spikes a fever and is out of the race.  Looking for help with tris and supers.

For whatever reason I just think the favorite (17) is going to bounce here, don't like the 17. I will be betting a closer..Perhaps Enforcable, Sole Volante or Major Fed..NY Traffic is also a player on the front end pace..

Thx midnight for your help, bit of a novice here, appreciate 

Who do you guys have as another horse who can really become the next star? I've read an article regarding the Kentucky derby, I've been seeing a lot of good talent in them. I want to know if anyone can replicate what other horses have done in the past. I want to see those rising stars.