10/3/2020 Fall Belmont, Keeneland, and a Preakness??

Some amazing weather and race cards today. Turf should be on at all tracks and I am playing for the first time in a few months. I capped all week and found some logical contenders that should win and some bombs that should outrun their morning line. Heading to OTB in another state so cant wait for changes to post. Good luck!

Belmont  Win bets and some exotics/multis

Race 1- #9 Left Leaning Lucy 4-1ml was no match for runaway winner in comeback but this 3 yr old filly tries her home track for the first time and with normal 2 start off layoff improvement should handle this weak group with a nice stalking trip.  DD 5,6,9/3,8  Ex Box 5-6-9

Race 2- #8 Man Luv 8-1 ml stalked a hot pace in an off the turf dirt debut and tired for third late but was a really sneaky good debut. There are some top connections debuting runners today so this one should have big odds and if she does want the grass then she has a big shot.

Race 3- #5 Thorny Tale 8-1 ml gets back to his favorite track (2 for 2 lifetime) and should get a dream trip sitting behind some inside speed. DD 5,6/2,7,8,9   Ex Box 5-6

Race 4- #8 Feeling Pretty 15-1 Bomb  showed brief speed in last and now gets back to turf in 3 career start. Beaten 25 plus lengths in both starts so the price should be huge. Was 5-1 in turf debut against some absolute future superstars though and had no chance vs that group. I like the cut back in distance after that brief dirt speed last out and Manny Franco hops on. Just maybe

Race 5- #2 Royal Charlotte 5-1ml - my BEST BET of the day at Belmont.  Graded stakes winning filly looks to get sweet trip sitting inside some speed and has the class to take this late. The #4 odds on fav faces older for first time and will be over bet off 3yr old scores vs much weaker comp.  DD 4/1,3,4,8

Race 6- #1 ShawdyShawdyShawdy 4-1ml couldn’t get going enough late in a 500k stake and Kentucky Downs last out as the fav at a mile.  Stretches back out to distance of great maiden win and may show in his third start that he is the goods and headed to the Breeders Cup next month. Tri Box 1-3-4-8

Race 7- Tired of same older route turf warriors at this point in their careers. Seems like they have battled each other the last three years trading wins. Tossing out those horses and playing a pretty large exacta box and starting a large Pick 4 with the 4 year olds. Ex box 2-4-6  Pick 4 2,4,6/4,5/1,2,4,9/3,5,6,7,9

Race 8- Only 2 I see winning are #4 Complexity gate to wire or #5 Code of Honor gunning them down easily.  Ill play a Win bet on Complexity and hope to get 2-1 or better

Race 9- #1 No Word 9-2 ml looks just as good as the favs in this one and seems to appreciate distance. Pletcher not known for his turf runners but I have noticed he is sending out some live turf routers lately may be switching up his focus some in an arena dominated by Chad Brown. Tri Box 1-2-4-9

Race 10- #9 Mondeuse 10-1ml  wide open state bred MSW  David Donk in the nightcap. There you go

Keeneland  Win bets and some multis

Race 1 - #3 Fra Mauro 7/2 ml  like this one to motor them all down late   DD 1,3/4,5,8

Race 2- #High Fashion 5-1ml gets to dirt for 2 career start and bred for dirt route. Must be well thought of for Arnold to try him at Kentucky Downs for debut. Works on this track have looked good.

Race 3- Meister 4-1 ml  won debut at 6 furlongs but wants this stretch out and could really run big Pick 3  2,3/1,5,9/5,6,7,8

Race 4- Bahama Mischief 6-1 ml gets back to dirt and should be fit and ready for stretch out

Race 5- Cheffy 10-1 ml firster with great works at Saratoga could be anything- 450k purchase in 2018

Race 6-  #2 Fast Boat 9-2ml will be right there late in a evenly matched race  Pick 3   2,4,8/2,5/1,3,4,5

Race 7- #2 Don Vinos 7/2 ml   Love the #2 in this one who may sit right behind the speed balls gunning from her outside. She won at track last out and been working good off break

Race 8-  #3 Daddy is a Legend 6-1 ml  should be primed 3 start off the layoff.. her form cycle and works all point to this race and connections trying to get that BC birth here

Race 9- #7 Calibrate 7/2ml  Best Bet at Keeneland  The horse is the goods and will stamp himself as the early Derby fav   Ill be happy with 2-1 or better  

Race 10- #1 Casa Creed 12-1 ml BOMB has a big shot if the pace gets hot and he gets some room late

Race 11- #8 Savvy 6-1ml is the savvy play here. The cut back to this same trip and track he romped at three starts ago clearly hit this horse perfect and there is speed to set him up. Large Ex box also 2-6-8

Pimlico

Win and exotics   I don’t have time for write up other than Preakness

Race 1- #2 Win  DD 1,2,3,4/1,8

Race 2- #8 Win

Race 3- #5 Win  Pick 3  1,5/5,6,7,9,10,11,12/1,2,5

Race 4- BOMB  #11  20-1ml  Was promising young 2 year old—working well at Fair Hill for 3yr old debut

Race 5- #2 Wicked Whisper 9/2 gets em late maybe

Race 6- #3 Hembree 9/2ml  gonna be touch to beat fav though at odds on

Race 7- #1 Admiral Lynch 7/2ml   think he stalks and gets the fav late  EX Box 1-3-5

Race 8- 1-5-6-8 tri box

Race 9- Pick 3  6,7,9,10,11/5,9,10/1,6,10,11

Race 10- #10 Landing Zone 6-1ml   in top form but steps way up in class here

Race 11  The Preakness 

I am playing bomb to win and bombs in exotics and hoping for a complete pace meltdown  #1 Excession 30-1ml showed in March he is capable in running fast and been off since.  I think Asmussen wouldn’t bring back a maiden winner in the Preakness off a 6 month layoff with no reason.  He has to be ready and live. If pace breaks down then why not him. Playing for chaos as it is 2020! 1-6-10-11 Ex and Tri Box

Art collector wins

Morning!! Hey AD, can you look at the "Toronto Cup". It is the 8th race at Woodbine today! I Settled on the 1 horse . Threw out the favourite and think the 8-3 finish 2nd and third. Thanks in advance , Johnny.

Johnny--  I think you are on the something. I just looked at the race and its loaded with early pace. Does the Woodbine 1 turn mile turf course play to early pace?  Your 1 looks to be pressed early bye the fav and a few others.  I really like your 3 and 8 though.  I'm gonna play your 3 and 8 and add the 5 in box. so for me its 3-8-5 ex box as I am tossing the front runners /pace types and hoping pace is crazy

Using #5 Uni as my win bet replacing Daddy is a Legend who scratched at Keeneland Race 8

Pimlico race 10 #9 Miss Marissa 12-1ml is now the bet as the #10 scratched 

happy to see you posting $$$

Enjoy the day!! Thanks for taking a look @theToronto Cup!!

Nice horse in that Toronto Cup Johnny!  Great performance and great pick man!

Thanks!! Had a nice day all round! Stay safe!!