You cannot be considered a serious gambler if you...

Hoopstar, regardless of what you think about me or what I post to "rattle cage" and get a cheap laugh at the reactionary, politically bent posters on this site, I will attempt to address the video poker issue for you as I have agreed to stop talking about other things on this thread, because if you are edcuated (two masters, if you knew that story, you would undertsand my views better) and working like me, we are actually on the same side with this whole welfare/socialism issue...



First off, why would a casino offer a game with odds in your favor or 100% odds that are even?  How would this make money?

My understanding of those machines that are in downtown Las Vegas is that they are able to advertise this because in the lot of 5-6 machines, one of them is set at 100% while the others are not...  Also this changes from machine to machine in a ramdom manner...

"VP strategy" is an oxymoron in the sense that the payouts are based on a random number generator chip that is set to pay out a certain hosue advantage that varies depending on where you go... 

The game it self is simply a slot machine with more engagment because it requires you to do more thinking then pulling the lever on a "one armed bandit"... so remember that the your present hand is not affected by the last hand and what you get in your present hand does not affect what will happen in the next hand...

With a random number generator chip, you actually have the possibility of hitting 10 royal flushes in a row (although mathematically unlikely)... so strategies of the "being due", the machine is "hot" or " cold", "paying" ot "taking" that are common to video poker folklore are simply not true...

Also things like certain machines being better becasue they are by the door, or having a certain attachemnt to one machine is not true...  They all have the same odds... 

I think if there is any "strategy" to video poker, it would be to play max bet and try to hit the larger payouts as they are often weighted higher...

I would be interested in seeing what your definition of
"strategy" is in video poker and what "pretty decent" means... 

I am not trying to be an ass with this looking to prove you wrong or make you look stupid, but trying to create a dialog about VP....

easy, to get people through the door

each machine is set up individually so the settings on one machine can be easily set up. And it is 100% long term. It's not like everyone who throws in $100 are not going to lose, but over time it pays out more then it takes

Then please tell me they the Wynn just back roomed an associate of mine for crushing their VP machines, before they released an advertisement, promoting them as the highest payout machines on the strip?

If they are such a cash cow, they should have brought him drinks with umbrellas in them, right?

Instead, they took his players card, removed him from the mailing list, he is no longer eligible for any more promotions on Wynn properties, nor did they pay him for the bonus jackpot he hit. Then they showed him the door....

But why do that? Hmnnn....

But 100% is not a loss leader... It means you break even.. right?  So when one of the 6 machines happens to be paying 100%, shouldn't it pay out exactly what it is bringing in?

But this is bad VP logic also thinking that how much money is coming out is based how much is coming in...  It does not matter if the machines is "full" or if people have been playing on it...  in VP you have the same odds on each hand regardless if the machine has been played on all day or if it has not been touched all day...

So I dont see how with randomly one machine out of 6 paying 100% , "that over time it pays out more then it takes"...  I would think in video poker like all casino games, the more and longer you play, over time you will lose because of the house edge... And if you play on that 100% payout on those machines downtown, the longer you play, the more time you have not being on the machine paying at even odds (100%)...

Think of it this way also... If one of the machines if paying 100%, what are the odds on the other 5 machines?... Probably weighted to compensate for a 100% pay out on the one machine...
I might be smarter to just play the VP other machines in downtown Las vegas with good flush/full hose payout odds (as long as it is better the 5/8)

I think when ever the word "easy" comes up with gambling we are getting in to the area of "lock" and "guaranteed"

This is 100% accurate.  So many of the trends posted here to support plays have zero statistical significance when compared to the norm.  This is due, in many instances, to the tiny sample size that the trend is based on.  When you stratify historical data down to the Nth degree looking for that one trend, your sample size is invariably too small to be of any significance.  When that is the case, you are simply chasing common cause variation with your hard-earned money.  If you're going to rely heavily on trends, then you really need to think of the data as a researcher would if he were submitting research to an academic journal, complete with statistical tests and p-values.  Without that, you are simply taking data completely out of context and using it for your own personal hunches.

you cannot create value on a parlay unless both legs are value as singles.

I thought "professional gambler" and "-110" was an oxymoron

A line is a combination of spread and price.  They are not mutually exclusive, the come as a 2 for 1 deal.

So NY -5 -110 is not necessarily better than NY -6 +104. 

I dont bet college hoops.  I do bet football, MLB, and international soccer.  Pinnacle has anywhere from 6 cent lines to 10 cent lines on those three sports, and MB often has less.

Im really happy you are doing well at -110.  The most common response I get when I tell people that -110 is a bad practice is "I am doing great at -110".  The problem is that you are not making as much as you should, and you are not maximizing your gains.  READ THAT AGAIN.  Believe me, there will be a time when you will wish you had sqeezed every penny out of your good run instead of paying too much and not profiting as much as you should.

Its fairly simple:  get the best line as much as you can.  Those who are good at this single concept will make money longterm.  Those who are not will have good runs (that can last years) but longterm will not be as profitable as those who are.  Period.

Take this as a compliment:  nobody reading this understood a single word you just said.

i followed him, in a generic breath he said
the trends posted on covers like
Tigers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Atlantic Coast.

have little to no bearing due to the very small sample size.. the only way to get any confidence in your statistics is to use some sort of "regression" or "data analysis"

p-values are loosely interpreted as probability, like 50% probability of a coin landing on heads

this is the route im trying to exploit right now but im missing something.. had my model made and hit 13-18.. then have lost the last 8...  also college hoops is very hard to projected anything with only 23 or so games in the books

c'mon pound, we can't use thsoe sort of words on Covers. I gave up when I tried to explain to one guy the difference between a trend and a coincidence

ChAoSoRb, ignore college hoops. Start off where you can get a half-decent sample size, something like bases. Your first models will be a lot of hard work. You may have thought it completed but it wasn't

its been a work in progress for 2 years i work on it during season usually after 15 games.. trying to run student-t distributions but man some of these teams i have standard deviations over 10 with a sample size of 20 games.. i set and think to myself this isn't gonna be worth a fuck.. i tweak it calibrate it on the fly.. ill have a 3 day run being perfect then go to the other extreme..  its also not very userfriendly, have to copy and paste some data.. and manually enter some other data.. i use as much indexing as i can but still unable to import files via web without blowing up a formula here or there.. I understand hoops much better than bases.. i wouldn't even know where to begin other than pitchers and days rest :(

One of the best threads I've read on Covers in awhile 

Do not forget Van, some things simply just don't come in -105 or better. 

I would much rather play a NCAAB total u142 -110, u141 -110, and u139 -110 on the opening number for nickle limits at 10am, as opposed to waitng until BetPhoenix opens at 2:30 pm at u132 -105, and it closes at 7 at pinny at -130.

And also FCS football. Very few books even offer it, but when you hit well over 70% in a market as tight as Jenna Jameson, even at self imposed $300 limits and -115 juice, it is still very beatable, and worth betting. Is it not? 

I know you have yelled at me once for saying this, but you are in a different realm than nearly everyone here. When you are turning over $6million+ per year, your damn right that 5-6 cents on the dollar makes a HUGE difference in your ROI. You're talking thousands of dollars. But for these guys and their $50 bets, and $2500 per month, what difference does it make?

I would think it would be in their best interest to have the best # that is widely available at -110, than give up half or a full point, in any sport(of course you will have exceptions to this in football with -5/5.5etc), to get something reduiced. I mean even if you only push 2 and win 2 by the hook you recieved for less than the market value, for having that best WA # at -110, that's a $300 swing for the $50 bettor, and almost negates any percieved "disadvantage" of betting everything at -110. 

Although you are 100% correct of course, I just don't always agree that this is an apples to apples comparison all the time. Sure you would be saving money, but to the majority, its just not worth it. It would be like you telling someone to drivie 20 minutes across town to fill up a 10 gallon gas tank and save 8cents on the gallon in a SMART car, because it makes sense for you to fill up your 35 gallon fuel tank, and 90 gallon auxillary tank in the back of your big pickup truck. 

Although the math will never lie, sometimes you have to look at in a cas by case scenario to figure out if it logically makes sense. 

No offense meant, but that is something that will never be discussed in a public forum...

You may even have a hard time finding out the answer in a private situation as well...

Sensitive topic... end of story.

As Hoopsstar says, I wont get in to specifics because Pinny is legitimately serious about banning US accounts - its not just a wink wink deal - they have a hard line.

Pinnacle requires:

1.  A non-US mailing address.

2.  A non-US IP address.

3.  A non-US utility bill or something similar with the address on it.

Im sure you can use your imagination to come up with many solutions to this problem.  If you are a casual gambler, it probably doesnt make any sense, but if you are a pro - well - you have to weigh it out....  But there are many ways to get it done if you have the desire to do so....

Pinny isn't the same book it was 2 years ago anyway. It's aiming it's business towards a new audience - asian based soccer punters

I agree somewhat with this.  It obviously is a focus of theirs.  But I dont think it takes away from the football betting there - still get 8 cent NFL lines with 50K limits (most of the time - their limits seem to be fairly arbitrary these days).

I was surprised when I was messing around one day and found 1k major NCAAB HT sides limits - but overall I use pinnacle a lot.

I do think they have cut down on american sports props and alternative bets, but for straight bets they still have high limits with low juice.

There was a pretty big blow up amongst some fellows who have been having their bets reduced or even canceled for having better information than Pinny did... Not just once, several limit bets cut in half or more, and canceled 10 minutes after it was accepted.

Wow - didnt hear about this....

Obviously Im not the one with better info than pinny