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Wrestlemania Odds are out...

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Posted: #226
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Some thoughts for this card:

There are basically three "sure things" on this card for me: Taker, Lawler, and Trish/Snooki/Morrison.  One other is close to a sure thing: Alberto Del Rio. That leaves the following toss-up matches: Cena/Miz, Orton/Punk, Rhodes/Mysterio, and Sheamus/Bryan.

Those four matches will be one of the following scenarios, I feel pretty confident.

Scenario 1:

Sheamus
Mysterio
Orton
Miz

Scenario 2:

Bryan
Rhodes
Punk
Cena

With the four close to sure things, you have 3 faces (Lawler, Taker, Morrison) and 1 heel (Del Rio). To me, Wrestlemania traditionally feels like it is more face dominated, so that's not a surprise. I think we get three heel wins at 'Mania, and with ADR winning one, that leaves some combination of Miz, Rhodes, Punk, and Sheamus. Pick the two that win and I think you can basically predict the entire card.


My heel wins are ADR, Rhodes, Sheamus.

My scenario would look like:
Sheamus
Rhodes
Orton
Cena
 
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Posted: #227
I'm not touching Orton vs Punk though.  I think that's the only toss-up on this card.

Cena
Taker
Del Rio
Sheamus
Rhodes
Lawler
Snookie

These are my final selections.  Going to figure out how I'm betting them.
 
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Posted: #228
I think Punk is at a great price right now at +200. I could definitely see them giving Punk the win to move the feud along
 
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Posted: #229
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

I think Punk is at a great price right now at +200. I could definitely see them giving Punk the win to move the feud along

Although it's probably been covered somewhere in this thread:

Would they have Punk job to someone who they basically set up to be a cripple in the match and who also got a really nice push by beating every member of Nexus on the way there (hence, he's been 'paid' for the job with several RAW victories)? We're talking about a steep drop-off in terms of credibility/superstar push if he does.

Bad move by the WWE if so.

Also, CM Punk's name was being chanted on Raw; something neither he nor I believed could ever be possible on a stage such as that (I know it was his hometown but still) so superstar possibility, however remote is there.

If so, I agree with the +200. That line seems excessively inflated.
 
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Posted: #230
He was chanted because it was in his hometown, Chicago.  They love him there.  I think Punk could win this match, but it won't be clean.  I see Mason Ryan getting involved somehow. 
 
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Posted: #231
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Although it's probably been covered somewhere in this thread:

Would they have Punk job to someone who they basically set up to be a cripple in the match and who also got a really nice push by beating every member of Nexus on the way there (hence, he's been 'paid' for the job with several RAW victories)? We're talking about a steep drop-off in terms of credibility/superstar push if he does.

Bad move by the WWE if so.

Also, CM Punk's name was being chanted on Raw; something neither he nor I believed could ever be possible on a stage such as that (I know it was his hometown but still) so superstar possibility, however remote is there.

If so, I agree with the +200. That line seems excessively inflated.


Would they? Yes, absolutely. Should they? Under no circumstances. To me, the best way to play this is you HAVE to let Punk go over. It furthers the feud, increases Punk's credibility, and gives Orton even MORE reason for revenge. Besides, if Punk was allowed to have Nexus hanging around for this match, I would have been SURE that Orton was winning because of the "stack the deck" theory. But without Nexus, I think this equates to a straight up Punk victory. They want to make him look isolated so that when he does win, it will be all that more important and will only further support Punk's narrative that while he likes Nexus, he doesn't need them. Another thing to think about is if a returning old Nexus member (like Tarver? Sheffield?) comes out to help Punk so that he can keep the group going. To me, it's far too easy to predict an Orton victory for the reasons you say Scal and I think that the late addition of the knee injury is something that the writers came up with so that Orton would have an excuse for losing on the big stage and won't look as "weak"
 
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Posted: #232
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



Would they? Yes, absolutely. Should they? Under no circumstances. To me, the best way to play this is you HAVE to let Punk go over. It furthers the feud, increases Punk's credibility, and gives Orton even MORE reason for revenge. Besides, if Punk was allowed to have Nexus hanging around for this match, I would have been SURE that Orton was winning because of the "stack the deck" theory. But without Nexus, I think this equates to a straight up Punk victory. They want to make him look isolated so that when he does win, it will be all that more important and will only further support Punk's narrative that while he likes Nexus, he doesn't need them. Another thing to think about is if a returning old Nexus member (like Tarver? Sheffield?) comes out to help Punk so that he can keep the group going. To me, it's far too easy to predict an Orton victory for the reasons you say Scal and I think that the late addition of the knee injury is something that the writers came up with so that Orton would have an excuse for losing on the big stage and won't look as "weak"

Papa and Kapono,


Punk it is then 

Anyone have any idea when the last time a +200 dog won at Wrestlemania?
 
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Posted: #233
>= +200 that is...
 
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Posted: #234
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


Papa and Kapono,


Punk it is then 

Anyone have any idea when the last time a +200 dog won at Wrestlemania?


Not completely, but only because I really started following it a few years ago. It seems like, based on memory, that usually a few dogs hit every year. Last year I remember Jericho was a dog in his title match with Edge and he won.
 
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Posted: #235
How often do you see odds move as much as they did here for WM? I mean Miz/Cena started Miz +1000, Cena -2000. Now it's straight -120 for both.

And people think you can't make money on Wrestlemania.


 
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Posted: #236
My WrestleMania 27 card, will repost it in the IN-GAME thread that I'll put up after I get done playing some basketball at the park:

Straight plays:

1. John Cena (-120), 180 to win 150
2. CM Punk (+200), 50 to win 100
3. Miz (+1000), 41 to win 410
4. Daniel Bryan (+350), 40 to win 140

Parlays:

1. Edge/Miz/Punk/Cole/Bryan -- 1 to win 730.43
2. Sheamus/Mysterio/Punk/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 10 to win 188.93
3. Bryan/Stratus/Rhodes/Lawler/Punk/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 20 to win 655.77
4. Sheamus/Lawler/Orton/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 20 to win 87.83

Good luck to everybody

Really think I've got a good shot to hit one of parlays 2-4....
 
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Posted: #237
This is my only bet tonight...

Parlay:

Del Rio -490
Cena -105
Taker -750
Lawler -900
Sheamus -195

Pays +348.  Getting ready. 
 
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Posted: #238
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

This is my only bet tonight...

Parlay:

Del Rio -490
Cena -105
Taker -750
Lawler -900
Sheamus -195

Pays +348.  Getting ready. 


I like that parlay a lot. Only thing I'd be worried about is Bryan/Sheamus, might want to look to hedge a bit to protect yourself?
 
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Posted: #239
Everything I have read indicates Sheamus is winning tonight.  I may make a few other small parlays to hedge out a bit, but I figure that as a -195 favorite, if he wins I have Cena at +348 because Taker, Del Rio, and Lawler aren't losing. 
 
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Posted: #240
Does anyone have the odds from last year and were they any surprises? Haven't watched wrestling in so many years already. I think the only prediction last year that was wrong was many people said Sheamus would beat triple h but he didn't. However, i recalled he was still the underdog though.


I know 5dimes have just $100 limits but can you bet $100 every time there is a line change? How many line changes has been there so far in these matches. Like for the Miz/Cena i heard there many line changes but can someone estimate how many there were? And if there were say 10, does that mean one could get $1000 wagered on it?  I also know bodog has $25 wagers but can you bet $25 every line change or is it only $25 on one max?
 
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Posted: #241

WWE Championship
Batista +450
Winner: John Cena -750

Career vs. Streak
Winner: The Undertaker -1050
Shawn Michaels +550

World Heavyweight Championship
Winner: Chris Jericho +240
Edge -320

No Holds Barred Match
Winner: Bret Hart -2750
Vince McMahon +1250

Undisputed Tag Titles
Winner: Big Show / Miz -750
John Morrison / R-Truth +450

Singles Match
Winner: Triple H -500
Sheamus +333

Triple Threat Match
Ted DiBiase wins Triple Threat -135
Winner: Randy Orton or Cody Rhodes wins -105

Singles Match
Winner: Rey Mysterio +170
CM Punk -230

 
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Posted: #242
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

How often do you see odds move as much as they did here for WM? I mean Miz/Cena started Miz +1000, Cena -2000. Now it's straight -120 for both.

And people think you can't make money on Wrestlemania.



WHAT!?!??! I could have gotten the Miz for +1000????? 

Was this before the Rock was involved?????

Papa and Kap, as far as Cena goes, is it too obvious to say Rock will purposely botch a three-count to eventually get Miz the victory and set up Rock/Cena for the next PPV?

A big run-on sentences here:

I don't like Cena having the belt because the next PPV should be Rock/Cena and putting the belt on the Rock this soon would be a big mistake given he hasn't wrestled in I don't know how long...(and you know the Rock didn't come back to job to Cena).

Why not think the odds dropping in favor of the Miz is because of a leaking of the outcome of the match, that is, Miz winning (which I would believe is usually the reason for such a thing when it comes to predetermined matches)? 
 
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Posted: #243
Two dogs won last year in 8 posted matches.

This year I think Punk may be the only dog to win this year, and if Cena is a dog then that will be 2.
 
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Posted: #244
To answer Scal's question, last year Mysterio and Jericho hit as dogs. All the other favorites won.
 
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Posted: #245
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


WHAT!?!??! I could have gotten the Miz for +1000????? 

Was this before the Rock was involved?????

Papa and Kap, as far as Cena goes, is it too obvious to say Rock will purposely botch a three-count to eventually get Miz the victory and set up Rock/Cena for the next PPV?

A big run-on sentences here:

I don't like Cena having the belt because the next PPV should be Rock/Cena and putting the belt on the Rock this soon would be a big mistake given he hasn't wrestled in I don't know how long...(and you know the Rock didn't come back to job to Cena).

Why not think the odds dropping in favor of the Miz is because of a leaking of the outcome of the match, that is, Miz winning (which I would believe is usually the reason for such a thing when it comes to predetermined matches)? 


I really think The Rock walks out of Mania with the belt tonight.  Cena beats Miz clean, then Rock challenges Cena a la WM IX and defeats Cena for the belt.  That will be the big surprise for Mania and will be an amazing ending. 
 
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Posted: #246
Quote Originally Posted by WorldT1:

Does anyone have the odds from last year and were they any surprises? Haven't watched wrestling in so many years already. I think the only prediction last year that was wrong was many people said Sheamus would beat triple h but he didn't. However, i recalled he was still the underdog though.


I know 5dimes have just $100 limits but can you bet $100 every time there is a line change? How many line changes has been there so far in these matches. Like for the Miz/Cena i heard there many line changes but can someone estimate how many there were? And if there were say 10, does that mean one could get $1000 wagered on it?  I also know bodog has $25 wagers but can you bet $25 every line change or is it only $25 on one max?


See above for the lines from last year (thanks Papa). 5dimes opens the bets at 50 limits and seems to raise them as they get more action. I got down on 180 for Cena a few seconds ago on one single bet. Can't talk about bodog, don't use them.
 
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Posted: #247
Was the only thing surprising last year Shemanus losing?


Also, can someone tell me about the betting limit questions i asked?


 
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Posted: #248
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


WHAT!?!??! I could have gotten the Miz for +1000????? 

Was this before the Rock was involved?????

Papa and Kap, as far as Cena goes, is it too obvious to say Rock will purposely botch a three-count to eventually get Miz the victory and set up Rock/Cena for the next PPV?

A big run-on sentences here:

I don't like Cena having the belt because the next PPV should be Rock/Cena and putting the belt on the Rock this soon would be a big mistake given he hasn't wrestled in I don't know how long...(and you know the Rock didn't come back to job to Cena).

Why not think the odds dropping in favor of the Miz is because of a leaking of the outcome of the match, that is, Miz winning (which I would believe is usually the reason for such a thing when it comes to predetermined matches)? 


I got Miz at +1000 probably within an hour that the lines were posted. I knew any dog value has to be jumped on early. Rock's not the ref for that match but everyone expects his involvement.

 
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Posted: #249
Going to play basketball, will be back online around 3pm PST
 
 
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Posted: #250
Can someone tell me what limits they have in their 5dimes account at the moment?  I have 250 as the limit.  A few days ago it was 100.
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