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Morons who think "Vegas" is trying to fool them

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Can you explain that NC/Miami line......


 

No- don'tknow anything about that game...I didn't crunch the numbers on that one..I seriously doubt "Vegas" knew what the final score was going to be before the game started though..lol

 

When games are fixed "VEGAS" is not involved..Private individuals fix games, not entire towns

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

No- don'tknow anything about that game...I didn't crunch the numbers on that one..I seriously doubt "Vegas" knew what the final score was going to be before the game started though..lol

 

When games are fixed "VEGAS" is not involved..Private individuals fix games, not entire towns


You know what people mean by saying 'Vegas'.  That's like saying 'Washington DC' referring to our government.  Unless you aren't here in the states then you wouldn't understand.  


 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

No- don'tknow anything about that game...I didn't crunch the numbers on that one..I seriously doubt "Vegas" knew what the final score was going to be before the game started though..lol

 

When games are fixed "VEGAS" is not involved..Private individuals fix games, not entire towns


When you crunch numbers do you have an idea of what the final score will be?   
 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by gold6185:

He's never claimed anywhere in this thread  to be a winning bettor. All he's saying is that-in reality-sports betting is a long run losing proposition and that most sports bettors have idiotic preconceived notions that house is out to get them-which is not true at all.  The line divides the money-which is all they care about. Who wins or loses an individual game-the book could care less.

 

Finally..I normal person...

 

I grew up in Chicago btw

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:


You know what people mean by saying 'Vegas'.  That's like saying 'Washington DC' referring to our government.  Unless you aren't here in the states then you wouldn't understand.  


 

Understood, but they don't understand "Vegas" sportsbooks- The Books don't work together, they don't talk to eachother, they don't make lines based on inside info, they just want volume-  and their % of it

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:


When you crunch numbers do you have an idea of what the final score will be?   

 

I don't like to brag but i've been 67% over 35 years...And I knew how books worked when I was like 12 years old...

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

I don't like to brag but i've been 67% over 35 years...And I knew how books worked when I was like 12 years old...


So do you have an idea of what the final score or how much a team will win by?
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

or trick them into betting one way or the other as if they (Vegas"?) knows which side is going to cover?

 

I really expected a higher level of sophistication here

Why would you or anyone else for that matter expect a higher level of sophistication here on a gambling forum frequented by degenerates?...lol

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

Understood, but they don't understand "Vegas" sportsbooks- The Books don't work together, they don't talk to eachother, they don't make lines based on inside info, they just want volume-  and their % of it


One of the linesmakers (or at least they claimed) did say they used non-public/inside info to set lines.  

So not sure if he's lying or you are mistaken.  
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by esplanade:

Vegas doesn't take a position or try to influence where the action goes............Seriously??


Exactly.

We're all talking to each other, certainly not this guy.

If you guys walk away w/anything from this absurd thread remember one thing. Vegas computers are never wrong, but if you wait for the rythm to increase then yoa have a shot.

Yes the computers do trap sports betting into fear an indecision, they do indeed manipulate and they will move money in a particular direction.

My .02.

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:


So do you have an idea of what the final score or how much a team will win by?

I'm like a lot of people..Sometimes i'm dead on, and sometimes i'm way off- I think i'm about 5-10% better than most people though...To be honest

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by searchwarrant:

Exactly.

We're all talking to each other, certainly not this guy.

If you guys walk away w/anything from this absurd thread remember one thing. Vegas computers are never wrong, but if you wait for the rythm to increase then yoa have a shot.

Yes the computers do trap sports betting into fear an indecision, they do indeed manipulate and they will move money in a particular direction.

My .02.

 

Now its the special "vegas" computers...

 

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:


One of the linesmakers (or at least they claimed) did say they used non-public/inside info to set lines.  

So not sure if he's lying or you are mistaken.  

 

They try to guess what line will get them 50/50...They guage the publics perception of the two teams. Thats what they do-

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

I'm like a lot of people..Sometimes i'm dead on, and sometimes i'm way off- I think i'm about 5-10% better than most people though...To be honest


So if you are sometimes dead on then wouldn't you think someone that sets those lines professionally would also know what the final score might be?  
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

They try to guess what line will get them 50/50...They guage the publics perception of the two teams. Thats what they do-


How far out (in time) do they gauge the public's perception?  
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:


So if you are sometimes dead on then wouldn't you think someone that sets those lines professionally would also know what the final score might be?  

 

Nobody knows, are you kidding me..If they knew, they would be placing bets, not taking them..

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

Nobody knows, are you kidding me..If they knew, they would be placing bets, not taking them..


Didn't you say you are sometimes dead on so maybe other times real close?   
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

Nobody knows, are you kidding me..If they knew, they would be placing bets, not taking them..


So you are saying that it's not possible for an organization or person to have an unseen advantage and then he sets the line to make you bet against him in which he has a point spread advantage as well as taking in the vig?


 
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Posted: #44
Lines are set to get as close to equal action on each side as possible-
It's not a prediction of the margin of victory- only bettors' perception-
It's a number generated to draw action from both sides- it moves when the action becomes disproportionate-
Just my opinion- but I never view a "line" as a prediction by some wizard in Vegas as to the final score/ margin-
Just my opinion/experience.....
 
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Posted: #45
And, obviously, on occasion bookmakers get caught exposed-in essence gambling themselves- but I don't see that as their goal-
 
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Posted: #46
As an aside- bookmakers are actually more honest than stockbrokers- the books may end up with some exposure depending on how wagers fall- brokers take your money up front with no blood in the game at all....,
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:


So you are saying that it's not possible for an organization or person to have an unseen advantage and then he sets the line to make you bet against him in which he has a point spread advantage as well as taking in the vig?


 

Games are fixed and points are shaved, but not by the Vegas Sports Books..?

That would be suicide- And they are the last people that want the games to be fixed- They desperatly need for people to trust that these games are on the up and up.

 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by Dsn150:

As an aside- bookmakers are actually more honest than stockbrokers-

 

Oh you got that right, The entire business is based on trust- If you think for a second that your book may not payout, you'll never use him again.

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

 

Games are fixed and points are shaved, but not by the Vegas Sports Books..?

That would be suicide- And they are the last people that want the games to be fixed- They desperatly need for people to trust that these games are on the up and up.


Who says setting a good spread is fixing a game?  
 
 
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Posted: #50

What? I'm not breakin down every possible scenario on earth, I'm saying that

 

You could go from London to Macau, from Bangkok to Hong kong, from Purto Vallarta to Winnamuca Nevada and they all had CMU at +21 tonight..All over the world..thousands of books had the same line at kickoff...

 

Because it produced a 50/50 split

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