Losing aint fun.

Question

Simply put - 2015 has been the worst gambling year of my life.

Ever since the Super Bowl interception, I have been losing at a pace that would make anybody question probability, science, and mathematics. I have had one major win (Jordan Speith at 12-1 to win the Masters), but besides that - I have been leaking money in seemingly incredible ways.

I am writing this because everyone on Covers always wins and I thought it would be interesting to some to read that while I take this very seriously, put an enormous amount of time in to it - that everyone sooner or later inevitably goes through bad streaks. Mine seems to be particularly long and painful - but it happens - and being honest about it here might help inject some reality in to those who might be thinking about moving to Vegas to chase the dream.

I am at the point where I have questioned everything. Are my stats models out of date? Have I lost the ability to see things the way I used to? Should I not be betting a sport like football that is so heavily influenced by penalties and coaching? Should I bet more - or less - or quit altogether?

In the past 2 years of the supercontest I came in 9th overall with a 52-30-3 record, then followed that up with a 51-34 (from memory) record last year - only to have a 13-27 (YES that is correct) record this year. 13-27!! That just seems impossible.

I always try to be honest here. And honestly - the last 9 months have me questioning everything I thought I knew about sports gambling - and my sanity. But I do know that this is part of the deal - I just wish the Gambling Gods would be a little bit kinder about how I lose these games.

But I will keep pressing on and trying to learn all that I can to get better. I read this site every day - and while my posting has gone way down - I do learn a ton from reading all different types of posts here.

GL all.

vanzack · Answer

Simply put - 2015 has been the worst gambling year of my life.

Ever since the Super Bowl interception, I have been losing at a pace that would make anybody question probability, science, and mathematics. I have had one major win (Jordan Speith at 12-1 to win the Masters), but besides that - I have been leaking money in seemingly incredible ways.

I am writing this because everyone on Covers always wins and I thought it would be interesting to some to read that while I take this very seriously, put an enormous amount of time in to it - that everyone sooner or later inevitably goes through bad streaks. Mine seems to be particularly long and painful - but it happens - and being honest about it here might help inject some reality in to those who might be thinking about moving to Vegas to chase the dream.

I am at the point where I have questioned everything. Are my stats models out of date? Have I lost the ability to see things the way I used to? Should I not be betting a sport like football that is so heavily influenced by penalties and coaching? Should I bet more - or less - or quit altogether?

In the past 2 years of the supercontest I came in 9th overall with a 52-30-3 record, then followed that up with a 51-34 (from memory) record last year - only to have a 13-27 (YES that is correct) record this year. 13-27!! That just seems impossible.

I always try to be honest here. And honestly - the last 9 months have me questioning everything I thought I knew about sports gambling - and my sanity. But I do know that this is part of the deal - I just wish the Gambling Gods would be a little bit kinder about how I lose these games.

But I will keep pressing on and trying to learn all that I can to get better. I read this site every day - and while my posting has gone way down - I do learn a ton from reading all different types of posts here.

GL all.

JEFFMARKETCAP · Answer

Losing streaks hit the best of us gamblers.  Example is Dilauded8.  The guy hit like 80% last year.  And yes that number is right.  It is impossible but he did it.  This year he is struggling big time.  I feel your pain man.

BWS77 · Answer

Just fade ya boy CG and get your money back! Although, he's been winning the last 10 days or so, just proving your theory that anything can and will happen, and it won't make much sense when it does.

daysbtwin · Answer

Sorry to hear that, Van. I think you&#x27;re one of the few people here who takes sports betting very seriously and so you&#x27;re one of the least deserving of a 9 month slump. Hope you turn it around soon

ClubDirt · Answer

for what it&#x27;s worth, and i do take NFL betting fairly seriously, after several very good years, i&#x27;m getting smoked in the nfl as well.  still plenty of season left though.

JOHNNY_ODAE · Answer

You are the preacher of money management!!! Hell , I bet against  A.P in the Breeders Cup! I thought it was value. You Sir do not have to explain it to me, we place our bets and know we have the edge. God bless the Underdog!! This doesnt end till Feb!!!!!!! And then the 2nd semester!  You Sir are a winner with ground to cover so get at it!!

thorpe · Answer

Betting on sports gets harder every year.  More info, more smart people betting, better computer algorithms, etc.

t6rider · Answer

Hope things turn around for you bud.

mr_bollox · Answer

kudos to the post, honesty is a rare commodity here as you intimated, i&#x27;m curious as you do like to bet on soccer, how you&#x27;re doing in that sphere

searchwarrant · Answer

Sometimes we all have to re evaluate ourselves. Bill Walsh.

Biscuit · Answer

Here&#x27;s a couple thoughts to consider---Systems do go bad sometimes, and you have to modify them, or start over with a new one.   For example, I had an NFL system that worked really well for a couple of years.   One of those years, I won a pool-type contest, picking every single game at a rate of 59%. (256 games total)   The next couple of years, the same system was giving me 45-48% winners.   So I trashed it &amp; moved on to something else.---40 games is a small sample size.   Even 80 games is a small sample size.   Look at it this way........overall, your record is 116-91-3, which is a 56% win rate.   That&#x27;s not bad, at all.Hang in thereTHINK POSITIVEBOL.

billyloco · Answer

learned to bet soccer frm observing you 4/5 yrs ago during the World Cup.

I lay a 4 team Round Robin n soccer everyday worth 60 units and all have to be within a 127 to 140 range....not posting these, superstious i guess, up 162 units...uno win some lose some.

NBA..RR the hell outta the unders & dogs...cha-ching for me so far Van.

RandyC726 · Answer

Glad I&#x27;m not the only one. We&#x27;ll bounce back. Everything comes full circle eventually.

sports_Network · Answer

ever take a home NFL favorite on the -500 ML, and lose by 14+pts, how do you feel?

ever take an UNDER 7 in MLB with both aces going head to head, and they score 12 runs, how do you feel?

ever take a NBA 'dog' (+4.5) with your team ahead by 12pts with less than 2 minutes to play and lose by one, how do you feel?

ever take a NHL [-1.5] PL with your team ahead in the 3rd period by 3 goals, only to blow-it in the final minute of play, how do you feel?

lately...Miami -vs- Duke, how do you feel?

Yes Van, these are only the mere tip of the iceberg shared by many sports bettors, there are more (examples) much more, but your point is well taken, regression not only impacts ones ego, it puts a cappers self esteem at bay until the cards turn in his favor, nothing more enjoyable than winning a sports wager, nothing worse than the agony of losing a sports wager, especially when you spend hours handicapping your so called POD, and the LOSS margin is considerable....

this is good reading, never before have I read a thread with this much integrity pertaining to losing, my read is mutual, and coincidal; one thing you can bank on, it turns around, and you come out stronger, the key question is when.

Goodluck2u · Answer

Your knowledge will win at the end kept doing wt you do been in this game for 25 yrs it happens ya&#x27;ll go on a tear and this yr will be forgotten. Gl2U

Slobbasaurus · Answer

Van,Just wait until next year&#x27;s Euro Cup and the World Cup  in 3 years.You&#x27;re the master of capping international soccer games.Best of luck man.  Sometimes we all need a little break.

The Hawk · Answer

Regarding outdated models. Heard a discussion yesterday on hockey scoring. Last year, goals per game were at 2.7. When The Great One played, it was close to 4.0!

This year, scoring is down to 2.68 (number may not be exact, but was pointed out at being Under 2.7). One coach floated out that the goal should be bigger. I guess the Tampa goalie is as big as Gronk. Can you imagine trying to score a goal on Gronk?

Back on topic, how often do your models change? By week, month, game, year?

I would imagine trends/streaks/fluctuations are accounted for, but just how often? Just like last night, for example. Baylor at K-State. Baylor avg 60ppg, freshman Qb starting, and Kansas State is a grind/grind/grind type of team............how do you figure that? I don't, I just said, I don't know, I'll pass.

We all go through streaks. Statisticians call a lucky streak a "fluctuation of probability"

The idea, of course, is to not get fluct........................

GimmeMoneyNow · Answer

Did you lose your wife &amp; kids, mortgage the house, and then put every penny you own on the Mets to win the World Series?https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&amp;sub=102149371If not, I&#x27;d say you&#x27;re still ahead of the game......

Michfan15 · Answer

This is a good point.  Twitter, more info avail, and the ever shrinking distinction between sharp and square money.  More novice bettors have bigger bank rolls and are throwing more money around than ever.  Have to always adapt to change it up to stay a step ahead and remain successful.  Obviously much easier said than done.

DAVIDN · Answer

Keep pluggin...

Kurshka · Answer

Van I hope your not being forced to go back to the corporate world. Its only gotten worse, at least for the insurance business. Government has made it so hard for us that work in Medicare.

I do admire your decision and dedication. Things will swing back your way. Matter of time.

sports_Network · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Slobbasaurus] Van,&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Just wait until next year&#x27;s Euro Cup and the World Cup  in 3 years.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;You&#x27;re the master of capping international soccer games.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Best of luck man.  Sometimes we all need a little break.  [/Quote] I don&#x27;t think he can wait 3 years, what&#x27;s he suppose to do in the meantime

TheGoldenGoose · Answer

Van: The Universe is infinite.  Whatever you put out into that Universe has it&#x27;s way of returning to you.  If you put out Good Luck thoughts and Good Luck Vibs, they shall be returned to you.I seem to remember you trashing CG and laughing at CG and sending Negative messages to CG.Perhaps you shall reap what you have sown. You don&#x27;t believe me?What other possible explanation can you provide? Yes, it defies laws of evenness and equality.THINK before you speak derogatorily.  Positive energy when gambling is a must have asset.

Canada_Chris · Answer

From what I seem to remember from CG&#x27;s clown show -  Van and many other vets initially tried to encourage and help only for it to fall on deaf ears.

TheGoldenGoose · Answer

On the contrary, Van made a bet with his friend against CG lasting a certain time period.Negative thoughts against another and other such negative thoughts... ATTRACT NEGATIVE ENERGY.You can call it coincidental BS but I have been watching this occur for a half century on this Planet Earth.  You believe what you want to believe but LEAVE ME OUT of this because I already know the outcome.New Age Spiritual individuals know what I am talking about.Others can Pooh-Pa this belief but do so at your own Peril.

Losing aint fun.

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