Hedge Bet Advice for WC Final

Question

I am hoping to get some advice from anyone that is savvy on the equity if a hedge is worth it.

In May in Vegas I got:

France at 5-1 for $70 to win $420

Croatia at 30-1 for $70 to win $2,170

France right now from what I seen is a -240 to lift the trophy. So I would need to put down $1,200 to get $1,700.

So in that case

If France lifts trophy I would profit $850

(-$70 original bet - $1,200 hedge bet + $420 + $1,700)

If Croatia lifts trophy I would profit $900

(-$70 original bet - $1,200 hedge bet + $2,170)

Is it worth it for me to hedge with France being such a big favorite? Or is my best option a no play? Or should I be doing something else here? Just want to make sure I get the best value on these futures bets.

Thank you in advance for the advice.

verdman17 · Answer

I am hoping to get some advice from anyone that is savvy on the equity if a hedge is worth it.

In May in Vegas I got:

France at 5-1 for $70 to win $420

Croatia at 30-1 for $70 to win $2,170

France right now from what I seen is a -240 to lift the trophy. So I would need to put down $1,200 to get $1,700.

So in that case

If France lifts trophy I would profit $850

(-$70 original bet - $1,200 hedge bet + $420 + $1,700)

If Croatia lifts trophy I would profit $900

(-$70 original bet - $1,200 hedge bet + $2,170)

Is it worth it for me to hedge with France being such a big favorite? Or is my best option a no play? Or should I be doing something else here? Just want to make sure I get the best value on these futures bets.

Thank you in advance for the advice.

vanzack · Answer

Right now, assuming -220 on France (not -240) because you can get -220 pretty easily, your combined bets are worth:

1,037

That means if someone were to buy both bets from you right now, the exact fair price is 1,037.

If you wanted to collect that 1,037 with zero risk, you would bet 1,203 to win 547 on France to win the cup.

There is no magic answer here. Your bet is worth what it is worth. You can take on more risk to increase your reward (and your potential loss), but to me the definition of hedge means that you are taking your chips off of the table, and right now you have 1,037 chips on the table.

verdman17 · Answer

@vanzack, awesome thanks for the info. Is there a site that is easy to get money or off of? I haven't bet online in many years. If I did it live, I can easily do it in NJ or DE but not sure if France is around the -220 or higher. So not sure I would be getting my best value at any of those brick & mortar locations.

More than likely if I do anything here, I probably won't go full down the middle. I'll leave it so that Croatia pays out a bit better.

But like you said there is no magic answer here, so I just need to think it through fully.

gambling-devil · Answer

Just leave it, you will be on the positive side anyway.Nice problem to have.

verdman17 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by gambling-devil]  Just leave it, you will be on the positive side anyway.Nice problem to have.  [/Quote]Thanks for the info.  I laid a few other bets in the group rounds &amp; round of 16, so I am slightly below a break even if France wins.  So I may ultimately lay a little on France to get back up, but leave a bulk on Croatia for the win.

verdman17 · Answer

Am I looking at this right that if I am going to put a bit more on France, that my play is on France as well as the draw?

2 way play:

France -220: -$660 + if France wins $960 + futures $420 = $720

Croatia wins: $2,170 - $660 = $1,510

---------------------------------------------------------

In 90 minutes play:

France -110: -$330 + if France wins $630 + futures $420 = $720

Draw: -$300 + if draw hits $990 = $690

Croatia wins: $2,170 - $330 - $300 = $1,540

---------------------------------------------------------

would it be dumb if I didn't play the draw & therefore my only risk left open was if there was a draw in regulation & then France won in extra time or on PKs? That would be the only scenario in which I would lose some money on my France futures bet.

QAnon · Answer

"Go all the way" (Charles Buckowski)&#xA;The gambling gods will not assist you unless you go all the way.&#xA;They will ignore you if you hedge, or try collect both ways for a smaller sum.

verdman17 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by QAnon]  "Go all the way" (Charles Buckowski)&#xD;&#xA;The gambling gods will not assist you unless you go all the way.&#xD;&#xA;They will ignore you if you hedge, or try collect both ways for a smaller sum.  [/Quote]Thanks for the input.  I should add that my only reasoning for trying to get some extra money back on a France win is because I am slightly down at the moment if they win.  So I figured if I can guarantee myself to be back up, it would make sense.

verdman17 · Answer

Thanks for the help.  I agree, however it doesn&#x27;t taken account other lost wagers on the world cup.  So if France does win, I would be slightly down still.  Where as the hedge would get me back up either way.  That&#x27;s the only reason I was thinking about it.

easymoney8474 · Answer

Croatia is winning

Hedge Bet Advice for WC Final

Hot Forum Topics