Champions are born in May - Fantasy Football

^^ Getting really sick of this spam guy. COVERS will you please remove this nonsense.

Had the draft lottery in my poker pals league. 10 team, traditional league. We voted on adding TE to the flex spot. We did the lottery by drawing names out of a hat, in our format, when your name is drawn, you select which draft spot you want. As reigning champ, I got to go first but didn't draw myself. Ultimately, I was picked 3rd and chose the 3rd spot. Targeting Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, and Jamaal Charles. Will take Foster if he falls. Everyone kept talking trash and how they're going to stock up on RBs early. My dream combo would be one of my stud targets + Stevan Ridley.

Biz- 10 man ppr league I am looking at getting a top tier back 1st round and depending on draft order would you take ridley or bush? Thoughts?

Its a really good question. Stevan Ridley has the higher grade as a RB, but when you factor in PPR, then it becomes tougher to decide, as Ridley has almost no value in PPR while players like Sproles and Bush sky rocket in the format. Bush is surely a target and has averaged 53 catches a season for his career.

Here is about what I expect

Yards - RIDLEY

As a feature back, Bush averaged about 1200 yards from scrimmage and proved to be durable than some of his New Orleans years. Ridley who fell just shy of 300 touches last year and should see an increase, also had 1200. And I think hasn't quite hit his ceiling. The only person on the planet who can hold him back is Belichick and his trickery when it comes to RBs. In 2004, he had a workhorse and ran him to 1600 yards. I think this team is closer to the 2004 team than the explosive teams we hav seen over the last few seasons. So, in that aspect, I may a slight edge to Ridley. We have already seen the best of Bush and father time is not kind to speed.

TOUCHDOWNS - RIDLEY

Bush has averaged 6.2 TDs per season. Even when relatively healthy, he maxes out at 8. Ridley all say. I think 15 TDs Is a real possibility.

RECEPTIONS - BUSH

Bush will get close to an additional 60 fantasy points based on receptions alone. I could see Ridley increase his catches from last season, but nothing at all significant.

Final tally of (my) projections

Bush 1200 yards/6TDS/60 Catches =216 pts or 13.5 per game

Ridley 1400 yards/14 TDs/12 catches =236 or 14.75 per game

Its real tough man, but Id go Ridley.

Here is a nice article on PPR RBs

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013fantasy-football-preseason-rankings-running-back-ppr.html?_r=0

 

I see high injury risk for the "ideal team for you." Richardson has to do it all. high risk. AJ Green doesn't have the bulk of other studs. Dalton can't throw the long ball either. I'd take a Marshall, Bryant, or Mega. MJD im thinking injury risk and same for Murray.

I'm seeing a lot of hype for this Lamar Miller but I'm wondering if it is justified. Has he done anything to warrant these expectations? What is your take on him?

I've come up with a formula that I llike for the 12-14 spot.

1. Dez Bryant

2. Steven Jackson.

3. Dwayne Bowe

4. Reggie Wayne

5. Eddie Lacey

6. Giovanni Bernard.

 

Any thoughts?

I would ideally get Andy Dalton and Jerimichail finley or jared cook. Maybe a Carson Palmer.

I'd try to pick up Jonathan Franklin to.

I see this as a recipe to the finals.

I'm not really following what you mean 12-14. Is that your per round target list for if your drafting late in a 12 -14 team league?

One piece of strategy I'd like to discuss with you all is the theory of the "lottery ticket." A guy you draft in the 9th round usually that you wont use as a starter but feel strongly about and sometimes emotionally attached. For me, guys like Kenny Britt, Emmanual Sanders, maybe Isiah Peed. 

Yes, that is good advice to take the defense.

I watched the first half of the Atl/Cincy game tonight.

Out of the gates, Giovanni Bernard got a real test in pass protection. He got blown up by a LB or DE and pushed into Dalton. A gritty introduction to the NFL. He missed one block though made himself available for a reception.

This kid has the size to pass block. There is clearly some work to be done there. Bernard does have it though. He is definitely a dynamic runner and a couple grades above BGE. He needs to bulk up a bit though.

As far as Steven Jackson goes, the ATL O-line has me a bit worried. It seems like it wasn't totally Michael Turners fault for the lack of production. I'm not sure if I believe that Jackson is going perform like a top 20 pick. A situation to keep an eye on.

I'm starting to grow sweet on Leveon Bell and Eddie Lacey. These guys should be ready to produce right away. Pass blocking will not be an issue with these boys. These guys are a must if you don't get Bernard or Lamar Miller.

Just wrote bout Bell in a previous thread;

Le'Veon Bell

Nothing from that stable last year suggested those guys can tote the rock as bell cow's. Insert the kid and see what he' capable of. He should see somewhere around 180 carries and quite possibly more. He's getting the 1st team snaps tonight. He's saved himself some mileage by leaving school early and last year he carried the ball 382 times for MSU. 4.7 YPC average last year and 5.0 for his career. College stats don't mean squat but the Steelers drafted this kid with the intention of feeding him the rock.

I'm getting very bullish on this kid and would take him ahead of Lamar Miller at this point.

Eddie Lacy is my boy!! I really would like to see him excel. Me and my good friend have a legacy bet "Who will have a better NFL carrier, Lacy or TJ Yeldon? Ive got Yeldon, but have no hate towards Lacy. If he can pick up the pass protection then I think you could pencil him in for 200 carries. I know the Franklin kid is in the mix but I see Lacy as closer to Trent Richardson than Mark Ingram.

First draft is tonight in that Yahoo league and its a QB-RB RB-WR WR WR-TE-D-K and only 6 bench spots for 9 starters. Notice there is no flex. This old school format alters my strategy a bit. My focus would be to grab RB-Stud WR-Jimmy Graham with top 3 picks. There is no sense carrying 5 RBs in this league, especially with precious few bench spots.

One guy who I notice later in drafts is Antonio Gates. I think he's healthier than he's been in a few seasons. The team has been cured of Norv Turner cancer, and there is no denying he can get into the end zone. You get tremendous TD production from him in his career. I'm buying!

Not very happy about this team, but as intended, this is a primer for the real $ leagues. To Recap its a 10 team, traditional scoring, 4pt per passing TD. No Flex QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-D-K 5 bench

Off rip, by the 96th pick, All of the top defenses were gone, and 3 kickers!!!! Asanine indeed, a couple of auto pickers. What do you expect for a $20 buy in league on the internet. Still fun, the chat room was busy with banter! Something happened in this draft, maybe from a faulty internet connection or just playing with buttons, I made a rookie mistake, I DRAFTED THE WRONG GUY BECAUSE I PRESSED THE WRONG BUTTON!!!! It was later in draft but it meant the difference between me getting Stevie Johnson, and instead getting Mike Williams.

8th pick, remember no flex

1. Richardson RB (All my top targets were gone and I had him #5, took him over Shady, CJ Spiller and Megatron) I just feel strongly about this kid. He is special and has a guy in front of him, Joe Thomas who is also in the midst of a potential HOF career.

2. Jimmy Graham  TE- A bit of a reach but it solidified a starting position with a statistical machine in a high octane offense. (Took over AJ Green, Dez, Julio, SJax)

3. D. Thomas WR - I said I wanted a Stud WR and there he was. Was a no brainer.

4. Randall Cobb WR - A devastating combo punch as Ridley and Roddy White were stolen with the 2 picks just ahead of me. So frustrating. (Gore was available, Reggie Bush, Matt Ryan, VJax). I wanted to buy in on a player I disregarded for once and well see how this pays off. Maybe he has a knack for the end zone.

5. Le'Veon Bell RB - Rolling more dice here. I passed on Run DMC, Torrey Smith, DeMarco. I needed a RB and sought a guy who should get a chance and who I felt had a higher ceiling than those 3.

6. Colin Kaepernick QB - I wanted a 49er. The fan in me came out. I had him rated a bit higher and he "fell." Almost took Stafford, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace. But, I just wanted a 49er. I think he just looks the part and is emerging into one of the better QBs In the game. The fact he was able to come back in both games in the playoffs and nearly in the Super Bowl showed me something in him. But this was a purely emotional pick that I hope pays off.

7. David Wilson RB - Here was RB who could get a starting nod. 1st round pick. Clean slate. McFadden was chosen one spot ahead. I passed on Montee Ball and Tavon Austin.

8. Eddie Lacy - In an effort to patch up what I thought could be a weak spot on my team , I went for another RB.

9. Mike Williams WR - THE DEBACLE. I meant to select Stevie Johnson. I blame myself for this mistake. This was pretty big. Netting Stevie would have gotten me a bonafide #1 at my #3 WR spot. Instead, I have a washout player. At best, hell match his #3 WR value. To Note, at this point the 49ers, Texans and Seahawks defense were off the board. Or that would have been rated higher than Stevie.

10. Tony Romo - QB - Cincy Defense were scooped here as well as Stevie. I just saw value and grabbed it. I have a backup QB who could very well start. Injury, poor play, possible trade bait, matchup fill in. I don't recall having a 2 QB team in the past, but am glad to try this out this season.

11. Kenny Britt WR - At this point the pickings are slim. So you just start throwing darts. I did pass on Chris Ivory here. But again, NO FLEX. Not a league that its necessary to carry 5 backs.

12. New England Defense - More darts. I did not want to be in this spot. I really wanted a team with a 49ers or Texans defense. Maybe a Seahawks and Cincy as well. But at this point it was too late.

13. Phil Dawson K - I hate kickers

14. Rod Streater - WR - I like what the magazine said "Keep an eye on him in the preseason. A real dark horse."

15. Pittsburgh D - Lets see which unit wins the starting job. A bit poisonous as I have Trent Richardson

 

 

Just had the draft order announced in an 8 team, 2 flex, PPR league. Got pick #7 which I think is among the worst spots, then again, its a fun league with some stacked teams. $100 entry, winner take all.

Week 1 of preseason almost in the books and have started to compile a list of players to keep an eye on. Andre Hopkins looked good and Kenjon Barner raised eye brows. Denard Robinson looked impressive.

There was an incident involving Justin Blackmon. This guy does not seem to get it. Was going to target him with a latter pick, but he may just be that stupid.

bizkilla, I just finished a yahoo draft, please tell me how i did. 10 team, no flex, standard scoring (non PPR), 10th pick $20.00 entry.

If Antonio Gates is available, please go scoop him up RIGHT NOW!!!!! He should help you, and once Gronk returns and if Gates is up to par, you have trade bait.

I must say, you have a very good core, on paper!

I like your RB tandem. I may have gone Rice over Morris, but regardless, you got a damn good RB. Your starting WRs are very good and Cecil Shorts provides some depth. And your golden goose is Rob Gronkowski. If he is healthy you will be in good shape. When your team is clicking on all cylinders, you can easily surpass 100pts week in, week out.

With that said, you will need a couple things to go your way in order to win.

1. Add more RB depth. I'm in the same YAHOO format league with the 2 RBs and no flex. You will need more in order to survive this season. During a bye week or an injury, you are in trouble. Bradshaw is nothing more than a name at this point. DeAngelo could have a rejuvenating season, but realistically he hasn't been relevant in years. My suggestion would be that once you get the #1 waiver spot, hold onto it until a RB comes along. An injury or breakthrough and you pounce!

2. Russel Wilson will need to continue to play at a high level. I have so many question marks surrounding him. I like the kid, but wonder if he will be able to duplicate last season. All these doubts have him placed on my DO NOT DRAFT list, but I could be wrong.

.

 

Already getting trade offers!

Offered me Randall Cobb for Wes Welker and Lance Moore. I haven't declined it yet as I'm trying to figure out a counter. This dude has 49ers defense whom I really would like to add. My team has holes especially at the #2RB and #3WR spots but I have some RB prospects and a backup QB to play with.

My 2013 Rankings are officially available for those who would like a copy (excel spreadsheet).

Only 120 players are ranked followed by a list of sleepers. There are no rankings for kickers. I dislike kickers and wish they were eliminated entirely. There is still some work in progress as the preseason moves along. For example, there is watch list of preseason performers that must be accounted for. It gets very difficult rating players past the 9th round. But this is very important. Just for historical context, Ive included the 2012 rankings.

Sometimes its funny to look back. Last year in the 10th round I had Mark Ingram (#91) rated the top player available and a GREEN rating. While Steven Ridley (#94) had a CAUTION, meanwhile Tony Gonzalez (#97) was  DO NOT DRAFT.

A clear example of the need to make the correct choice and not start slacking during the later rounds.

This brings me to one point.

ALCOHOL

Most live drafts harbor an environment where drinking is the norm. In my circle this was the case as a keg was iced cold in the 8man and everyone in the 10man brought a 12 pack and was very 420 friendly. One guy must have been very blitzed, he drafted WR WR WR with his first 3 picks!! Stay cool and enjoy one of the most fun days of the year for a football fan. Don't drink and drive.

biz..

sorry biz i forgot to add email...lol

For all those that inquired about a copy, you will have it sent to you this evening. I'm at work today and got poker night at 7. As soon as I get home Ill send your way.

I too like the prospect of Daryl Richardson. I'm not sure what happened there at the end of the year when he was getting like 3 carries a game. He did post a 4.8 ypc average but scored 0 TDs all year. He's a sleeper that could treed RB#3 value if given an opportunity. That's a tough situation to figure out.

Quite funny how Chris Johnson is shooting up the rankings.

This thread continues to bring value. Thanks bizkilla for your insight. I've been doing a mock draft every day to see how they go. Been noticing Defenses being picked up as early as the 7th round and usually the 8th.  Folks that I see falling are MJD, Murray, Gronk and I have been targeting them when they fall a round or two. Quality QB's are hanging around late also. I'm not sold yet on Pitts RB, too nervous draft him. I think Richardson on the Rams could potentially have big upside and James Jones could be a TD machine again. With Nelson's injury and no Jennings, James is a real late round steal.

I see people down on Murray in drafts and I'm struggling to see it. Yes, he's a hard RB and gets injured, but there is a chance he stays healthy. If he does, he could be a monster. I'm also not sold on Bush yet, maybe a RB #3, #2 in PPR (low).

Thanks again for all those that have contributed and entered the discussion of fantasy football.  I appreciate bouncing ideas off of you whether you agree or disagree. I particularly like when people disagree and then to see their reasoning. That's when I learn the most from engaging I conversations via forums. You guys are my best friends this summer. I cant discuss these ideas with my live friends because were in competition. So this has been beneficial.

I notice people being down on Murray this year as well. Rightfully so he hasn't quite lived up to potential (23 games played, only 4 100+ yard efforts + injury risk). Now the same thing could be said about Reggie Bush (was hailed as the "next Gail Sayers). But the offensive line in Dallas is questionable and its uncertain how Callahan play calling will affect DM. Both players are pretty close in terms of value. I would lean Bush in PPR formats and Murray in standard. But neither is an ideal RB#2, but very good RB#3 options. Would not shock me to see Bush have a career season, atleast close to his 2006 campaign when he caught 88 ballsand went 1300 yards from scrimmage. LeShoure will be one of the most hated TD vulture in recent memory.

Defenses are going early and rightfully so. There is depth at QB like never before in this league. And once you get to the back end of your draft there really isn't much separation among WRs, RBs and especially TEs. I must question why I even have Vernon Davis ranked s high as I do. The theory is, and I subscribe to it, is that why not get yourself a top level defense early, who is going to start for you week in week out, rather than go for the flavor of the week or based on matchup. Because, ten your subject to waiver rules or scrambling for a fill in.

Mark these words own, there will be a handful of guys who go undrafted who will have a huge impact.

One of those guys is shooting up my board, EJ Manuel. He looked good.

 

Just pulled off first trade, felt like I gave up a bit too much, but it got me what I wanted. (Team from post #63)

I get
Dwayne Bowe

I ship

David Wilson and Mike Williams

Basically, Mike William was likely to be waiver trash as I never wanted the guy. I may have really fcucked myself giving up on Wilson who was a steal for me in the 7th. My reasoning was I really wanted a 3 headed monster to start at WR regardless of matchup. And I think I got it with bonafide #1 options on their  respective teams. With this new roster opening I will probably target the best available RB as I have a glaring hole on my roster a the moment. I have another trade pending, me sending Randall Cobb for Chris Johnson. That would hurt my starting WR unit but greatly upgrade my RB situation and giving me some breathing room.

I like Bowe this year, but more in PPR as I think Smith gets him the ball, but I'm unsure whether he's a #1. My heart says yes, my head says no. Great losing Williams as I agree with your assessment and Wilson could be great, or he could lose his role to the backup or become part of a rbbc...that's a big unknown.

I like CJ this year. He came on mid season last year and I think Ten will be a decent team this year especially if Brit can stay healthy.

Interesting thoughts on Manual...time will tell and I missed the first pre-season game.

Regarding VD. I think he has the potential to be a monster this year. Yes, Mr. I let you down every year. VD now has a real QB with an arm that can throw him that ball and lack of depth at WR. Combine that with how healthy VD looks, he could be deadly for some deep td's. Kaper will keep the defense honest, leaving VD there.

Is it Week 1 yet? :)