UCLA at Oregon (10/21/2010)

Oregon -25

 This will be a coin flip as to whether they cover or not.   Oregon is a big play team.   And big plays aren't all that predictable.  

Oregon could win by 40 or by 14 just as easily.  if ucla keeps it close it could stay close.  if oregon gets a big lead it will most likely get very big.

Sure the difference seems like alot between 21.5 and 26 but is it really?   They are both more than 3 tds and less than 4.   if you liked oregon at 21.5 then the line going to 26 really shouldn't matter all that much.   if oregon gets a 3 td lead then ucla will have to start passing and it could get very very ugly very quickly (look at the stanford game)

Oregon doesn't kick many fieldgoals.  They have 33 td's to 5 fieldgoals.   That is 6.6 tds to every fieldgoal.   second highest only to TCU.

Now in capping the game I think you should be asking yourself do you think ucla can stay within 14 pts of oregon.  If the answer is yes then take ucla.   if no then take oregon.  

Also don't forget that this is a  National TV game for Oregon.  They need style points.  (ie remember that tcu, smu game where tcu refused to kick fieldgoals and was going for it on 4th)   Oregon may do the same.  They won't take foot of the gas knowing the spread is so high.   

Don't know why everyone thinks Oregon needs "style points".  They are already #1 - they just need to win out the season.

Now Boise State?  That's a team that needs style points.  I am on them every game until they lose or move up to #1.

But it's not 21 - it's 26 and climbing.  I can't count the number of times that I bet against a team because of injury and had the team rally (for at least that one game) and play over their heads.

Plus, Oregon just got named #1.  Their heads are big and they think that they can just show up.  That's what Ohio State thought last week.  And Nebraska.

My guess is the Ducks win, but it stays (relatively) close.

Nobody's going to loose the top spot becuase they didn't score enough points.  Do you EVER remember an undefeated team loosing the #1 spot becuase they only won by a few points?  Ever?

Quote Originally Posted by Hawaiian77:

I still think the best bet is on the half. BOL 

A Hui Hou, 

@ Hawaiian77: Here is some stats that I found on Oregon.  Check it out, I think you will like it.  I am all over Oregon as well in the 1H.  I got Oregon Team Total at 23, and the 1H Over 31.

BOL to you all

• TOP RATED TRENDS
-------------------------------------
--OREGON is 27-5 (+21.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 22.3, OPPONENT 8.3 - (Rating = 4*)

--OREGON is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 30.9, OPPONENT 10.5 - (Rating = 4*)

--OREGON is 26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 38.2, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 3*)

--OREGON is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 46.6, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 3*)

--Rick Neuheisel is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of UCLA.
The average score was Neuheisel 18.3, OPPONENT 25.9 - (Rating = 3*)

--OREGON is 20-6 (+13.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON 22.1, OPPONENT 10 - (Rating = 2*)

At home this year, Oregon is avg 42.67 pts in the 1H on their own(Team Total).  In all six games, they are avg 33 pts in the 1H.  Total Points in the 1H they are avg 53 pts at home and 47.17 pts combined in all six games(1H Over/Under). 

The wager that I was looking at is the 3Q wager.  In all six games, they are avg 13.17 pts in the 3Q.  At home, they are avg 14.67 pts.  I am thinking over 14 (+110) 3Q wager, but hesitate to pull the trigger yet. 

What to you all think?