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Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (11/12/2008)

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Posted: #101
FPronk - you mention winning 65% of your posted plays, but what about your % in RSI which is 45%.  Why the difference? 



















 
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Posted: #102
I have heard of them, just wasnt sure how solid their numbers were is all.
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

My post didn't look right...it looked like it was part of your quote so I am reposting....

How good is NIU's DEF? Sure not all their completion as been stellar but NIU is allowing 9 points a game at home...that's good DEF no mater who you're playing. Central Michigan on the other hand is averaging approx. 27 points a game on the road...downside...they give up about 35 points on the road and NIU scores 30 at home.

NIU has played 4 night games (7pm or later start) this year and lost them all...this accounts for all four of their losses.  Now, all these games were on the road and all of them against stiff completion...even though TENN is playing like crap this year they are still a SEC school with highly recruited players who can play....whose fault is it they gave up on their season? Anyway, NIU lost 3 of 4 of those games by a total of 11 points.

Lost at MINN 27-31

Lost at WESTERN MICH 26-29

Lost at TENN 9-13

Lost at BALL 14-45

NIU runs, controls the tempo, 12th man, national TV, and wins their first night game of the season at home.

NIU -3

Under 49.5

 



Looks like we on the same side tonite.  And I like the fact that all cappers I respect are on the same side, Imprezive and tokin and Fpronk.

I like the fact that there is more bets on CM and the line is moving away from them.  I guess Vegas wants all the CM bets. And this is with Lefour? coming back. This is after a game that NIU got lit up on by Ball State. GLTA

NIU -4


 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

The line on BetEd has gone from -2.5 today to the current line of -4. Even though I like NIU in this game why does something seem fishy about that line movement.

So what what you saying???

 
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Posted: #105
i know it's been said a couple times in this thread already, but i'm still feeling that the wrong team is favored here.  i'm on central michigan +4 and also playing the over (system play).  i'm taking the two as straight bets and a small parlay.  GL
 
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Posted: #106

C-Mich 27

N.Ill 24

 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by agent0:

FPronk - you mention winning 65% of your posted plays, but what about your % in RSI which is 45%.  Why the difference? 

I hate having to explain this everytime but apparently your a noob. I make many more plays on wagerline then I acutally wager online with my book. Matter of fact, the majority of those pics are random who do I like on Friday afternoon when sitting at work having lunch. I put no time into these picks...even you even look at my NFL play on wager line for the Washington game I took WASH, however, I my thread I posted I took Pittsburgh and I bet PITTS with my online book. Those picks mean nothing. You think I am betting all those games...WAGERLINE.COM is a free, fun site for anyone to post plays. Go through all my threads and you do the math....

I download a file each week from my online book...and add it to a spreadsheet with all my picks. I keep track of all my plays by day and then also by STRIAGHT bets ATS and the O/U. I also keep track of all my bets combined...that tab includes Parlays, Teasers, and STRAIGHT wagers. I can tell you by day what of the week what my winning percentage is...if I were allowed to post my email I would and would send anyone this file...however doing so gets you banned.

 
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Posted: #108
i think im the only ass with the over, expecting alot of turnovers for good field position and steady scoring gl. on northern also.
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by Sticky_Rice_911:

So what what you saying???

What I am saying is I have not yet made a play on the spread and I am sitting here refreshing the line on my books website.

 
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Posted: #110
Central Michigan +4
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

I hate having to explain this everytime but apparently your a noob. I make many more plays on wagerline then I acutally wager online with my book. Matter of fact, the majority of those pics are random who do I like on Friday afternoon when sitting at work having lunch. I put no time into these picks...even you even look at my NFL play on wager line for the Washington game I took WASH, however, I my thread I posted I took Pittsburgh and I bet PITTS with my online book. Those picks mean nothing. You think I am betting all those games...WAGERLINE.COM is a free, fun site for anyone to post plays. Go through all my threads and you do the math....

I download a file each week from my online book...and add it to a spreadsheet with all my picks. I keep track of all my plays by day and then also by STRIAGHT bets ATS and the O/U. I also keep track of all my bets combined...that tab includes Parlays, Teasers, and STRAIGHT wagers. I can tell you by day what of the week what my winning percentage is...if I were allowed to post my email I would and would send anyone this file...however doing so gets you banned.



thx for the explanation -yeah, i always tend to add more games here than i actually wager for real....but its fun having your picks tracked....
 
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Posted: #112
I like CM + 4. I dont think Northern will beat them by more then 3
 
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Posted: #113
I have been using them for the last few seasons, they seem pretty solid. But just keep in mind that the percentage is based on the numbers of bets not the amount of money people are betting.

That's my #1 source of information for betting. I look at the betting percentages, numbers of bets, and the line movement.
 
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Posted: #114

Quote Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:



Looks like we on the same side tonite.  And I like the fact that all cappers I respect are on the same side, Imprezive and tokin and Fpronk.

I like the fact that there is more bets on CM and the line is moving away from them.  I guess Vegas wants all the CM bets. And this is with Lefour? coming back. This is after a game that NIU got lit up on by Ball State. GLTA

NIU -4


Good Luck! Glad we are rooting for the same side tonight!

 
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Posted: #115
C. Michigan moneyline
 
Athough, N. Illinois has a good defense they will be unable to hang with the fast pace offense with Dan LeFevour.  If you can stop him N. Illinois will win if not you lose.
 
Over 51
 
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Posted: #116
Great insight...you know, if let all of the air out of the footballs XP's and FGs will be hard to make tonight.
 
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Posted: #117
OK! Northen Ill did get lit up last week but they got lit up by Ball St. Now they're at home playing a team that they beat 8 out of 9 times! The D shows up tonight and will be the deciding factor! 4 - 0 since posting but No ESPN special tonight so just relying on knowledge!

My Pick: Northern Ill

BOL!
 
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Posted: #118
This game is a coin flip to me...I cant come up with a side....so UNDER it is...got to stay interested somehow....Oh well off to the Celtic game
 
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Posted: #119
I like CM here to pass up and down the field, but I am gonna go against the line movement and BET on N.ill. With the majority of bets going on C.M. and the line moving in the opposite direction you have to realize what Vegas is doing here.  I have seen plenty of set ups and this game seems to be exactly that. I hate these games be/c it takes balls to bet them and I rarely find mine but tonight im pulling the trigger.  Any1 care to enlighten me as to why this isnt a set-up? 
 
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Posted: #120

FINAL PLAY

Straight wager / 28759...

2008-11-12 19:55 Placed
NCAA Football/G- (Central Michigan @ N. Illinois) N. Illinois Point Spread -3 (-120) 2008-11-12 20:00
 
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Posted: #121
not going our way so far
 
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Posted: #122
LOAD UP ON C MICH @ 2 half...
 
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Posted: #123
how in the world was no. ill made a 4 point fave, that;s why you just cap the game and  forget all this line movement stuff...
 
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Posted: #124
UL-Laf -  AGREED!
 
 
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Posted: #125
Vegas wins!!!!!
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