Posted:
#51
Sharps taking the Under.
Or at least teasing down the Under.
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Alabama at Notre Dame (01/07/2013)
Posted:
#52
Alabama does not have the typical D they normally possess, and their QB might throw 2 picks. ND QB can make plays and will have chances against a not-so-good Alabama D...Georgia should have beat Alabama and spread might be 3...there is no other team in the country that would make be root for ND, but Alabama has the coach that will make me...ND 24-ALAB 23.
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Posted:
#53
I love Alabama. I am a big Nick Saban fan. But I think the conservative style of both teams and both teams very strong D will make this a close game and this favors ND getting 9 points. The strong running games and strong D will make this a field position game. I like Alabama to win a close game.
Notre Dame +9
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Posted:
#58
Bama's strength is their running game, but ND's strength is their run defense. ND's Defense probably has the best front 7 in the nation. If ND can stop the run, they have a very good chance of winning the game. The first team to reach 20 will win the game. That being said, ND 20 Bama 17
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Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by babygus17:
THE BLUEPRINT IS SET FOR BAMA TO GO DOWN I.E. TEX A.M. SPREAD EM OUT 3-4 WIDE HURRY UP OFFENSE DASHON MOVING OUT OF POCKET. BAMA HAS NO PASS RUSH THIS YR..BESIDES THEIR GREAT O LINE AND ABOVE AVG QB NOTHING REALLY
THE BLUEPRINT IS SET FOR BAMA TO GO DOWN I.E. TEX A.M. SPREAD EM OUT 3-4 WIDE HURRY UP OFFENSE DASHON MOVING OUT OF POCKET. BAMA HAS NO PASS RUSH THIS YR..BESIDES THEIR GREAT O LINE AND ABOVE AVG QB NOTHING REALLY
IMPRESSES. BIG NIX WILL PLAY MARCELL
DAREUS FROM A COUPLE OF YRS AGO. SHIP THE TEN IRISH LARRRRRRRRRRGE
The 2nd time that Ala played LSU they did not let them past the 50. Ala did not play ND but they did TAM so they have some experience with mobile QB. Ala will make adjustments to contain the ND QB.
That said I believe the conservative philosophy of both teams and the strong D of both teams suggest a closer than the experts think. I think that this will be a close game and ND +10 might be the the better play.
Notre Dame +10
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Posted:
#61
Hello everyone. I hope you all had a fun and at least somewhat profitable football season. After betting on sports for over 20 yrs I have finally left being a 'SQUARE' in the dustbin of my not so profitable history. Very exciting to me. Thanks to moving to Vegas (if you want to be a fisherman, you shouldn't live in the Death Valley) and the wisdom and guidance of a couple of wonderful (& knowledgeable) people I am on my way to achieve my goal of becoming a 'SHARP' Still a long way from it mind you, but feel I am at least on the right pathway now. I at least feel confident enough now to toss around my thought's and opinions with you all. So here it goes about the 'BIG GAME' !
I will be taking the Crimson Tide in this game favored by the absolute least I can find it. I couldn't give you anymore reasons than some 'Bama backers already have so I'll just add 1 of my main reasons for my pick. Original line movements come to fruition more often than not I have found. Although I haven't tracked every single one on every single game over the last few years, I have kept records of a lot and I have it at roughly a 65% to 70% clip. Anyone that opened it up at around 8 to 9 (even 7.5 I saw) got it pounded up immediately to as high as 10.5 in some cases (including off shore books) I mention this games movement because I saw the exact same thing happen earlier this yr with the Notre Dame/USC game. The original, first day money went on ND from 8, 8.5 to 9, 9.5 roughly. From there on, money came in on USC with periodic movements back to ND. Later in the week I made my decision and put money on ND -8.5 after it went back down a bit. The day before the game I took it again at -8 and on game day when I got to the casino it was at -7.5 so I took it again. I proceeded to watch it go , in 1 afternoon (it was a late game of course) all the way down to -4.5. I got real worried about my bets as I hadn't personally seen anything like that. Did some ND players do something stupid at the last minute and get suspended for the game ? Did the bus crash on the way to the stadium ? Was the fix in ? I talked to people who had what I had, called people who's opinions I highly value (who had what I had) and just watched the line go down, down, down. However, no large amount of people were actually betting USC and any that were, not a lot. (I know other places were involved, but still) The point I am trying to make is, (yes I'm there. Sorry for the 'War & Peace' length) that I see the same thing happening with this game. Am I right ? We'll definitely see, won't we ? Anyhoo......
'BAMA - ... ?
BOL to all !!!!
( by the way, Notre Dame won by 9 if you all remember)
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Posted:
#63
Finally ND will be exposed!!Espns ND coaches corner,all the ND hype,pressure is ALL on ND.....can they handle it?.......NOT!! Close game for two and a half quarters,then the IRISH WILL BITE THE DUST!!! The world will see a slow footed defense vs REAL athletetic talent and speed.ND will be lucky to score 10 pts in this game.Oh if any of you are thinking about ND running QB,ask Denard Robinson of Michigan.They will be finally EXPOSED as the same slow, non-athletetic,over the top media coverage they always have been.Linebacker for the heisman.....are you kidding??Remember the first game of the season when Alabama played Michigan on a nuetral site and Saban had all that time to prepare?CASE CLOSED!!!Oh, I know what you're thinking,ND have time to....time for what?.....they're coach is always appearing on espn with Lou Holtz and those other Old ND farts(coaches)talking about the greatness of ND.Saban and The Crimsom Tide can't wait for this woodshed beating....and neither can I.
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Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by blakewedel81:
Alabama wins by 17 here. ND coasted all the way the to this beat down we call the championship. ND will be crap again starting next year for another 15 years once all their Sr's graduate.
I see why your upset ...being from sooner land ...you did see some offense that day ...and the Irish are just starting there run...top 5 class coming in do your home work ....not to metion B.Kelly is the best coach in ncaa and actually being able to play for a national title this year is sooner than predicted ...we will be good again for many years to come...Go AM Johnny Football ....
Alabama wins by 17 here. ND coasted all the way the to this beat down we call the championship. ND will be crap again starting next year for another 15 years once all their Sr's graduate.
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Posted:
#65
Let's say this up front: The Southeastern Conference has earned its towering superiority complex.
The smugness is based on fact, the arrogance grounded in truth. The proof is in the hardware, and six consecutive crystal footballs don't lie. It is the best college football conference in the land.
Manti Te'o and the Irish will face either Alabama or Georgia in the Jan. 7 BCS title game. (AP)
But occasionally arrogance leads to blindness, or at least severe myopia. And for all the SEC elitists guaranteeing a blowout by whoever wins its league against Notre Dame in the BCS championship game, I'm here to offer an eye test.
Look at the facts, get over the regional bias and acknowledge that someone outside of Dixie might actually be good at football.
My friend Clay Travis, who runs the excellent SEC blog, "Outkick the Coverage," was the voice of SEC arrogance Sunday morning on Twitter. Quoth Clay: "Notre Dame will be destroyed by either Alabama or Georgia. Seventh best team in SEC. At best."
Let me repeat that I'm a fan of Clay's and enjoy his work, but this is ridiculous. Notre Dame may indeed lose the national title game, but I don't foresee a blowout and an Irish victory would not be an outlandish outcome (especially if the opponent is Georgia).
And anyone who believes Notre Dame would be the seventh-best team in the SEC needs to get out more.
[Related: Irish complete rise to prominence]
The gist of this argument is that the Irish could not have played anywhere near the schedule of an SEC team. Unfortunately, it's completely false. Here's the reality, stacking all 12 games on the Irish ledger alongside Alabama's and Georgia's and using the Sagarin Ratings as a measuring stick:
Best opponent played: Notre Dame hosted Stanford (eighth in Sagarin), Alabama hosted Texas A&M (seventh), Georgia played Florida (fourth) at a neutral site. The Irish and Bulldogs both won close games. The Crimson Tide lost at home. Most impressive of the three: Georgia.
Second-best opponent: Notre Dame visited Oklahoma (ninth). Alabama visited LSU (11th). Georgia visited South Carolina (10th). The Irish won by 17 points, the Tide won by four in the final minute, the Bulldogs lost by four touchdowns. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Third-best opponent: Notre Dame played USC (16th) on the road, never trailed and won by nine. Alabama played Michigan (20th) at a neutral site, never trailed and won by 27. Georgia hosted Vanderbilt (29th) and won by 45. Most impressive of the three: Alabama.
Fourth-best opponent: Notre Dame played Michigan (20th) at home and won by a touchdown. Alabama played Mississippi (33rd) on the road and won by 19. Georgia hosted Mississippi (33rd) and won by 27. All three won. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Fifth-best opponent: Notre Dame hosted BYU (37th) and won by three. Alabama hosted Mississippi State (36th) and won by 31. Georgia visited Missouri (43rd) and won by 21. All three won. Most impressive of the three: Alabama.
[Watch: Highlights from Notre Dame's victory over USC]
Sixth-best opponent: Notre Dame visited Michigan State (39th) and won by 17. Alabama visited Missouri (43rd) and won by 32. Georgia visited Tennessee (54th) and won by seven. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Seventh-best opponent: Notre Dame played Miami (52nd) on a neutral field and won by 38. Alabama visited Tennessee (54th) and won by 31. Georgia hosted Georgia Tech (63rd) and won by 32. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Alabama coach Nick Saban has won two of the SEC's six straight national titles. (Getty Images)
Eighth-best opponent: Notre Dame hosted Purdue (62nd) and won by three. Alabama visited Arkansas (65th) and won by 49. Georgia visited Auburn (84th) and won by 38. Most impressive of the three: Alabama.
Ninth-best opponent: Notre Dame hosted Pittsburgh (66th) and won by three in triple overtime. Alabama hosted Western Kentucky (82nd) and won by 35. Georgia visited Kentucky (92nd) and won by five. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Tenth-best opponent: Notre Dame played Navy (73rd) at a neutral site and won by 40. Alabama hosted Auburn (84th) and won by 49. Georgia hosted Georgia Southern (99th) and won by 31. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Eleventh-best opponent: Notre Dame hosted Wake Forest (113th) and won by 38. Alabama hosted Florida Atlantic (127th) and won by 33. Georgia hosted Florida Atlantic (127th) and won by 36. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Worst opponent: Notre Dame visited Boston College (121st) and won by 15. Alabama hosted Western Carolina (204th) and won by 49. Georgia hosted Buffalo (135th) and won by 22. Most impressive of the three: Notre Dame.
Eight times out of 12, the Irish have had the most impressive performance when assessing comparable opponents. Notre Dame is 2-0 against the Sagarin top 10, whereas Alabama is 0-1 and Georgia is 1-1. Notre Dame is 4-0 against the Sagarin top 20, whereas Alabama is 2-1 and Georgia is 1-1.
So don't say the Irish haven't been seasoned by a schedule every bit as difficult – no, more difficult – than the SEC top dogs. And they've had far fewer games where they just had to show up to win.
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Posted:
#69
The big game is here again. These threads for ND look a lot like last year's threads from the LSU / Bama game and we all remember that one. LSU last year and ND this year are not that dissimilar in terms of poor balance ( all D, moderate O ). The ND Qb is the real variable here and I see no reason to think Gholson is up to the task. ND offense has been iffy all year and one can imagine what might happen to their O vs Bama. Ok, that is the eye test. What do the numbers say?
1. Score predictor makes Bama a 4 pt favorites but I have played with the numbers and think Bama should be much higher based on the diff between their O and the ND O. I am calling this a no decision for either side. Bama has one of the best yards / point numbers in all of CFB while ND has one of the worst. No contest here - Bama
2. Consensus - John Q Public likes ND and they like ND by a big margin (67% on ND ). This is the ultimate square game with two square favorites going against one another. Whenever John Q likes an underdog by such a huge margin, it is always a good idea to give the Favorite a strong look. Play on Alabama
3, No play from the SS Money Line indicator -maybe a slight lean to ND but I am ignoring it unless it swings clearly to one side or the other
4. CE Diff - Good handicappers like ND and they like ND by a big margin ( 18% ). I am assuming they like getting the 10 pts and would not be so one sided if they were betting the game straight up.
The synthesis of all the above is to play Alabama on the money line. Gets pretty expensive ( -350 or more ) but this one looks really sound. I don't usually take favorites and I am not going to lay the 10 vs ND but I do think a straight up Bama win will be in the bag well before the game ends. I am looking for around 34 - 10 as a final.
1. Score predictor makes Bama a 4 pt favorites but I have played with the numbers and think Bama should be much higher based on the diff between their O and the ND O. I am calling this a no decision for either side. Bama has one of the best yards / point numbers in all of CFB while ND has one of the worst. No contest here - Bama
2. Consensus - John Q Public likes ND and they like ND by a big margin (67% on ND ). This is the ultimate square game with two square favorites going against one another. Whenever John Q likes an underdog by such a huge margin, it is always a good idea to give the Favorite a strong look. Play on Alabama
3, No play from the SS Money Line indicator -maybe a slight lean to ND but I am ignoring it unless it swings clearly to one side or the other
4. CE Diff - Good handicappers like ND and they like ND by a big margin ( 18% ). I am assuming they like getting the 10 pts and would not be so one sided if they were betting the game straight up.
The synthesis of all the above is to play Alabama on the money line. Gets pretty expensive ( -350 or more ) but this one looks really sound. I don't usually take favorites and I am not going to lay the 10 vs ND but I do think a straight up Bama win will be in the bag well before the game ends. I am looking for around 34 - 10 as a final.
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by djuengoe:
Sorry guys, Just had a bathroom thought. Should have specified that the 65% TO 70% clip I told you is for the games that I decide to bet based on original line movements alone. Not a majority of my bets by any means ( if it were that easy, Lordy, Lordy !!). Just wanted to clarify.
Sorry guys, Just had a bathroom thought. Should have specified that the 65% TO 70% clip I told you is for the games that I decide to bet based on original line movements alone. Not a majority of my bets by any means ( if it were that easy, Lordy, Lordy !!). Just wanted to clarify.
Very nice analysis although I suspect you are wasting your time. Most of the posters will have no idea about what your talking about and many will call you a fraud because they don't understand and don't care to learn. I saw the same thing as you but my only caveat is that I am suspicious of any line moves that involve two very public teams. Since John Q was, is and will be heavy on this game, I am not inclined to say any of these moves are sharp because much of the money is being driven by uninformed opinions on both sides of the game. Let me know what you think please.
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Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:
As a side note anyone betting notre dame ml is a fool, not because they don't have a shot at winning, but because the books are completely friggin you with the ML in this game. Take a look at other 10 point spreads, they typically give you anywhere between +380-+500, ive even seen as high as +650 before on ten point spreads. Yet in this game the books are giving you +265-+290. The books are scared of notre dame in this game.
As a side note anyone betting notre dame ml is a fool, not because they don't have a shot at winning, but because the books are completely friggin you with the ML in this game. Take a look at other 10 point spreads, they typically give you anywhere between +380-+500, ive even seen as high as +650 before on ten point spreads. Yet in this game the books are giving you +265-+290. The books are scared of notre dame in this game.
Books are not scared of ND. They know that squares will bet ND on the money line even if the payout is ridiculous. So why give the squares a break. Never underestimate the " square-ness" that you will often see posted on these threads Plenty of square will take that horrible ML play because they haven't made a ML play in their lives but now they think ND is a lock so why not get back 250 for 100 bet? I am betting Bama on the ML and laying around 350 to 100.
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Posted:
#74
Quote Originally Posted by HUCKFAWAII:
Irish I love ya.. I do. Stop the presses at Barnes and Noble.. That write up above makes for a good bedtime story for the kids and really warms the cockles and though parts are true, most is just one homers wishful thinking...
Notre Dame just simply don't belong here they are in way over their head and this game has blowout written all over it...
Look at the common opponent Michigan, Bama wins 41 to 14 (giving up 7 at garbage time) then ND squeaks it out 13 to 6 after Michigan turns the ball over 6 times ( 5 int and a fumble) then Stanford 3 to's, USC 3 three turn overs and the worst goal line play calling in the history of college football by that tool Lane Kiffen.. ND went to overtime with Pitt yes Pitt and had that kicker who now should be opening a restaurant with Sam Ficken that serves only lamb and call it "shanks" hit that chip shot we would have a much better game to watch on the 7th..
Q: what does ND and a bag of pot have in common??
A: they both get smoked in a bowl...
I have more also Irish but my battery on the laptop is dying..
Irish I love ya.. I do. Stop the presses at Barnes and Noble.. That write up above makes for a good bedtime story for the kids and really warms the cockles and though parts are true, most is just one homers wishful thinking...
Notre Dame just simply don't belong here they are in way over their head and this game has blowout written all over it...
Look at the common opponent Michigan, Bama wins 41 to 14 (giving up 7 at garbage time) then ND squeaks it out 13 to 6 after Michigan turns the ball over 6 times ( 5 int and a fumble) then Stanford 3 to's, USC 3 three turn overs and the worst goal line play calling in the history of college football by that tool Lane Kiffen.. ND went to overtime with Pitt yes Pitt and had that kicker who now should be opening a restaurant with Sam Ficken that serves only lamb and call it "shanks" hit that chip shot we would have a much better game to watch on the 7th..
Q: what does ND and a bag of pot have in common??
A: they both get smoked in a bowl...
I have more also Irish but my battery on the laptop is dying..
Well my friend, I do understand where you are coming from....I really do. But again, this isn't about being the best team in the country....because arguably, neither of these teams are this year!!!!! It's about being the best in one game. The last time a dominant Bama team played a big dog that had no reason to be there, Utah smoked em like that bowl of kind bud you speak of. This is a very similar situation. The difference is this ND team is made up of all kinds of special, intangiable things......most of which can't even be explained so the laymen haters could understand. It's like a Greatful Dead concert back in the day......if I have to explain why they where one of the best bands in a live venue....then you won't understand anyway. We shut out Mich for three quarters and started a very "green" freshman QB......You piled up points on Mich.....but we shut em out for 3 quarters and held them to 6 points......I love it when people call turnovers lucky!!!! 
Last I checked, dominant D's "create" turnovers........I would think you Bama backers would understand this simple principle, since you have been so dominant on D for the last 5 years. Every team plays a dud or two in championship runs.......LSU almost got Bama and totally dominated them!!! Bama's vaunted QB with this crazy efficientcy number had one completion in the second half of that game until the final drive. And LSU has proven to be no better than a decent team this year.....couldn't throw it, couln't stop the pass and lost 3 games and made perenial bowl loser, Clemson look like a power in the second half of that game! I always love hearin from ya my brutha!! But I have to respectfully disagree with you and some of the other Bama backers here that only talk about the same ole things.........now I have to get.......we have a contingent gathering at Rockne's grave to pour out a bottle for his spiritual thirst and summon his spirit!!! Sad thing is.....that is the truth! 
Here come the Irish!!!!!
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