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Alabama at Kentucky (10/03/2009)

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Posted: #1

Away:  Alabama [3-1 ATS]
Home:  Kentucky [1-2 ATS]

Game Time: 12:20 PM
Stadium: Commonwealth Stadium

Recent Meetings:
10/04/08 - KENTY 14 vs. ALAB 17
10/09/04 - ALAB 45 vs. KENTY 17
09/13/03 - KENTY 17 vs. ALAB 27

Team Leaders:

Alabama:
Passing: Greg McElroy (938)
Rushing: Mark Ingram (347)
Receiving: Marquis Maze (194)

Kentucky:
Passing: Mike Hartline (485)
Rushing: Derrick Locke (169)
Receiving: Randall Cobb (191)

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Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2
Alabama - 15   wow was expecting a few more points especially after they held Arkansas to just 7 points they are a much more explosive offense then Kentucky. Alabama is probably got there offense together better then the Gators at this point. Looks like another long day for the Wildcats.
 
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Posted: #3
If you're taking UA get on it fast. If you're on UK then wait until Sat. morning because the public will pound Bama. Line will be -19 by kickoff
 
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Posted: #4
On the fence on this one.  UK played a horrible first quarter against FL and a horrible 3rd quarter against lowly UL but at least pulled that one out.  Brooks says he is going to switch up practice and have more first team offense against first team defense instead of a scout team of third stringers.  Maybe that will help, maybe not.  I'm with shorty14 on this one and will wait until later in the week to make my bet, if at all on UK at maybe +21?  This is Ala's first away game and UK still has lots to prove.  Again thinking under if it is 46-50 as that is what saved my butt last week on Kentucky!! 
 
Good luck to all and I will report back after the Wednesday/Thursday practices.
 
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Posted: #5
I think Saban's got his hands full trying to pare back Alabama's confidence right now.  Have to expect that Kentucky will play better after last week, and that Bama comes out a bit flat.
 
Prefer Kentucky + the points here.
 
 
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Posted: #6
This is a very tough game to figure out.  UK put in possibly the worse quarter I've ever witnessed last week, and I've seen PLENTY of bad quarters from UK over the years.
 
However, UK matches up better vs. a team like Bama - see last year's matchup.  Gotta think UK will play better this week, but can't see anything but Bama controlling the game.
 
17 or more is a lot of points though thinking back to how Bama controlled this game last year but the score was close.
 
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Posted: #7
Bama -17.  They are on a mission this year and they have the best front 7 in football.  UK will be lucky to get 7 points
 
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Posted: #8
Lets see....KY beat a pathetic Miami Oh team, barley got by  pathetic Louisville and were demoralized by a very sick FL team by the first quarter and now they got a very good Alabama team. Enough said??
 
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Posted: #9
Kentucky Stinks to High Heaven
But Bama -17 is too much.
WILDCATS.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by BobSeger:

Kentucky Stinks to High Heaven
But Bama -17 is too much.
WILDCATS

People said DD spread against ARKY was too much but we know how that went. This will be identical to the FL game last week, hopefully without the QB injury.

Bama 24+ 

 
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Posted: #11
Shorty, no offense and I'm sure you're a smart, unbiased guy - but nobody is going to listen to your pro-Alabama picks as long as you sport a Nick Saban avatar. This forum does not appreciate homerism.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by assmunch:

Lets see....KY beat a pathetic Miami Oh team, barley got by  pathetic Louisville and were demoralized by a very sick FL team by the first quarter and now they got a very good Alabama team. Enough said??

You should never look at other games too closely when capping a game....OSU looked average against Navy and everyone said that USC would run all over them because they are too slow and Navy ran all over them.  The game, however, was a different story.  I like the points here and will wait until it is 17.5.  If the line keeps going down, I will bet this game even harder because it is the right side. 

+16.5 here

 
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Posted: #13
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by BobSeger:

Kentucky Stinks to High Heaven
But Bama -17 is too much.
WILDCATS.

 

People said 20 points was to much aganist FL last Sat as well.

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by au4040:

Shorty, no offense and I'm sure you're a smart, unbiased guy - but nobody is going to listen to your pro-Alabama picks as long as you sport a Nick Saban avatar. This forum does not appreciate homerism.

You're absolutely right, and I'm sure some homerism filters through. But I actually do not like betting on Bama. I am more of a pessimist when it comes to deciding whether they will cover or not. You feel great when they win, but you're pissed if they didn't cover the spread. So it takes alot of the fun out of just rooting for the team.

Nevertheless, I remember last week, when so many people said a DD spread in the SEC should always take the points and they lost alot of money. FL and Bama both covered DD spreads against SEC opponents. Just trying to contribute and maybe eliminate that mentality.

 
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Posted: #16
uk giving up 5 yds/carry...bama rushing for 5 yds/carry...don't overthink this one! bama is playing like the best team in the nation right now...i don't get this line...
 
tide by 4 td's
 
 
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Posted: #17
[Quote: Originally Posted by assmunch]

 

People said 20 points was to much aganist FL last Sat as well.

Yeah I was one of them.  

 
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Posted: #18
So far this season Bama has scored 20 td's and given up 5 ,and Tucky has scored 9 and given up 7.
 
Bama -17
 
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Posted: #19
After the Weds practice for UK with the first team O against mostly the 1st team D (Johnson, Maxwell and Warford out of practice with the LBs expected to play Saturday and practice thurs), most things look a little more impressive.  ALA's D will be better than UKs but the offense clicked better with some long balls completed and lots of work on the running game.  I feel better about UK's chances of covering but most likely will still sit this one out!  Maybe tease it up to +21.5 on UK and a 1/2 unit bet on the M/L at +680.  Lean to the under still stands at 46.5. 
 
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Posted: #20
I like Bama to run all over Kentucky...I look at Bama winning this game by 3 tds
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Shorty14:

You're absolutely right, and I'm sure some homerism filters through. But I actually do not like betting on Bama. I am more of a pessimist when it comes to deciding whether they will cover or not. You feel great when they win, but you're pissed if they didn't cover the spread. So it takes alot of the fun out of just rooting for the team.

Nevertheless, I remember last week, when so many people said a DD spread in the SEC should always take the points and they lost alot of money. FL and Bama both covered DD spreads against SEC opponents. Just trying to contribute and maybe eliminate that mentality.



You were right last week ...... I like Bama here -17 points, but if I pick them they won't cover .....
 
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Posted: #22
I think Bama is the best team in the country, but I like the cats here
 
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Posted: #23
I bet with my heart. Brooks is the only
coach in the SEC who isn't an egomaniac.
 
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Posted: #24
If I am correct.......2 top 10 teams have gone down almost every week so far this season........Kentucky got to play Florida last week and get a taste for the big time........they will be ready at home and Alabama is leaving the comfort of home where they have lived through Sept.  I'll take the points and even go as far to say.........put Bama on upset alert!!! 
 
The SEC isn't nearly as strong as they have been in recent years.  They other top 10 that goes down this week will be LSU.  The 10th ranked defense in the conference won't fair very well between the hedges this week.  But then the Gators have to be on alert next week down in the the Tigers cage!!!
 
 
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Posted: #25
I agree that Bama looks like the best team in the nation this year, better on both sides of the ball than Florida in games played.  But I am torn about giving this many points on the road.  The roof fell in on Kentucky last week in the first quarter but they fought back and the defense played well the rest of the game.  Need to study this one some more, but the Kentucky offense will get slapped silly by Bama's defense, the question is can the KY defense do anything to slow the Tide down.  It worries me that Kentucky struggled with a bad louisville team in a rivalry game. 
 
My gut is to go with Alabama and trust that the defense will give the offense enough short fields to score into the low 30s.  If they do, Bama will cover, just can't see the Wildcats putting up more than 10 points.  Love to hear some input from you stat guys. 
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