YPPT Projection Model for 2010/11

Happy beginning to the College Football Season. Many of you will remember the YPPT threads from each of the past few years. This years projection system has a few new and different parts than in years past. Firstly I need to acknowledge the fact that most of the statistical projections are taken directly from the pages of the Phil Steele College Football Preview. Mr. Steele gives season stat projections for all 120 teams. He also ranks each team from number 1 to 120 in Power Rankings and Strength of Schedule. What I have done is used Mr. Steeles projections to come up with a way to forecast each individual game of the season. Each of the many sportsbooks use their own lines for the many games each week, that being said my selections are based on the lines I am using. I will only post selections that meet or exceed a 7 pt. differential from the given line. Each selection will be set up as follows.

SELECTED TEAM or TOTAL   Winning Team (DIFF)  Total Pts. (  ). 

9/2

Marshall +28                          Ohio State   (21)            (47)

S. Miss./S. Car. OVER 45.5     S. Carolina  (18)            (56)

Minn./MT St. OVER 48.5          Minnesota   (2)             (63)

Fla. Atlantic +14                       UAB          (7)              (55)

Hawaii +21                               USC         (13)              (49)

GL All

Glad to see you back this year! GL 

Against you on Minn/MTSU.  Where will those teams find 63 points?  That's ridiculous.

I wish you the best of luck, but the Projection calls for nearly 900 Yds. of total offense (881) that equates to 13.98 YPPT which is hardly a reach for two poor defensive teams. Again best of luck.

does ur system know dasher is hurt

No the Projection System does not know Dasher is hurt, but if MTSU struggles to move the ball that means shorter fields for Minnesota which is also good for me.

Hey, i've been reading throughout your threads all through summer, and I have came up with a excel spreadsheet using the YPPT it has been pretty accurate during the preseason for nfl. What I am wondering is how do you make your spreads. I know how to calculate the money lines just not the spreads. I like the hawaii and the fla atlantic pick, not to sure about the marshall on, I think ohio state will stomp over them.

Are you willing to share this formula or spreadsheet you have for getting the total amount of  pts each team will score?

thanks

lol, already got my  own spreadsheet!I Just need to know how he makes the spreads.

Snoop, If you had a yppt spreadsheet you would know his point differences. Its the difference between the 2 teams he inputs on his  yppt spreadsheet and if its a difference of 7 pts or more from the book it would be a solid play...I just need the formula or a spreadsheet template for the formula so i can plug in the #s..let me know if you have one rough..

thx

Rough-

 

Good to see you back.  i was with you all season last year and believe in the system.  like the picks.  best of luck this year.

You really cant do it without the numbers, I dont know how he did it thats what i'm asking now in nfl you have preaseason you can do the numbers then but college football you have no numbers so you have to wait a week

Also, I have another question where do you find the defense and offense allowed I look on statfox and they dont have it

Cash Peters its a simple method, its total yards /  yppt
- 1.75 and +1.75 for home field advantage

Any plays for tonite or this weekend that meet the requirements?

GL

I use a similar system with the Jeff Sagarin ratings.  If there is a 7 point difference between the book and Sagarin's spread on the matchup, I consider it a solid play.  I also have YPPT and a Totals system I use for the NFL.

9/3

3-2 YTD

Sorry nothing for tonight. Moving forward I have one small change (games where favorite is expected to cover 75% or greater of the line will now be no plays for me.)Example Marshall @ Ohio St. projection was 12.81-34.27 (Ohio St. expected to cover 76.6% of the -28 Line) I KNOW THE GAME DOES NOT MEET THE 7 POINT DIFFERENTIAL MINIMUM THAT IS NEEDED TO BE A SELECTED PLAY. Sorry simple over site on my part I will try to do better moving forward.

GL  Tonight all I will have selections in the morning.

9/4   (3-2 YTD)

Good morning everyone. I'm glad the first full College Football Saturday is finally upon us.

W. Michigan +23.5             Michigan St. (10)             (49)

Rice +31.0                                  Texas          (18)             (56)

UCLA +2.0                                   UCLA           (8)              (60)

UNLV +20.0                                  Wisconsin    (10.5)           (61)

CU/Colorado St OVER 46.5           CU             (11)             (59)

Wash St./Okla St. OVER 53.0         Okla St.    (9)             (67)

NW/Vandy OVER 42.5                    Vandy     (1)                (54)

GL ALL

9/4 Late Morning Add

Miami OH +38.5          Florida (29)                  (59)

Again GL

damn I wish I would of taken +38.5 damn

RIce is terrible

bol man....have been using since last year looking to start using it this season...

Rice cant pass, the y cant run what can they do? nothing