You can write it down right now: Rutgers IS NOT losing to Indiana on Saturday. WRITE-UP!

CFB: Record 2-1

I have A LOT to say about this game but I am going to condense it. It'll take me less time to type and less time for you to read.

What are the reasons to back Rutgers here?

1. Forget the past 3 games with regard to how you view this Rutgers team.

Rutgers was crushed by Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska.

They were outscored 135-41 yet they are still 7 point favorites in this game. Scary?

I say this: Who cares? They loaded up their schedule early with the creampuffs ,won 5 of 6, and knew those three games would be losses. AT OSU? AT Nebraska? No shot...Rutgers is not even in their universe.

They had a nice win against Michigan and blew one to Penn State in the final minute in their Big 10 games that were competitive. This is another Big 10 game.

Both games were at home. THAT is where Rutgers excels. Rutgers knows what games it needs at home to stay competitive record-wise in this conference. This is a very big one in that regard.

So you get what is really the worst team (because of injuries) in the Big 10 right now vs. Rutgers in Piscataway. That is ideal to back Rutgers.

2.  Who remains on Rutgers schedule?

@Michigan State - automatic loss

@Maryland - they should be competitive but I see that as a loss as well.

So they need 6 wins to become bowl eligible.

They are 5-4 with the last two games as losses.

Don't think Rutgers isn't 100% aware that they must go all-in to get to a bowl with this game.

Don't think the entire coaching staff, which can have changes, isn't fully aware that if they lose this game, heads could roll.

This team will be all business at home on Saturday.

3. Gary Nova's final game.

Love him or hate him, he is the most prolific passer in Rutgers history.

He will want to go out with a bang in front of his home crowd with a win.

While this isn't a major reason to back them, you will get all Nova legs and arm, as he sacrifices everything to leave Piscataway with a win and get this team to a bowl.

4. Indiana - Are they good or bad? I'll tell you.

Right now, they are completely one-dimensional.

They are starting a true freshman in Zander Diamont because the two QB's ahead of him went down. Yes, he is a third stringer and an emergency QB.

But it gets worse. He is actually .... a fifth stringer.

Yes, he was 5th on the depth chart this spring behind the two starters who are out for the season. The other two QB's ahead of him transferred.

He simply can't play the position having completed 46% of his passes for 103 yards....in three starts.

Ya have to feel for Indiana here. They started strong at 3-2 averaging 32.3 pts per game.

With Diamont they are averaging 11.3 over the last three.

It is so bad, that Indiana may list a ....free safety as one of their backup QB's this week. Talk about a vote of confidence.

You want more Diamont? I have more.

Go to :35 seconds of this video.

https://twitter.com/HoosierFootball/status/531217310371954689

A 24 yard pass that doesn't get a first down with the defense laying back:

Announcer: "Probably the best throw Diamont has made all year"

He has one positive. He runs. Yes, he can get some first downs running but Rutgers will be ready for that.

So the passing game is a non-issue.

Now we'll switch to the only issue of the game. The running game.

5. Tevin Coleman

He's second in the nation in rushing yards (1,371).

He's not good, he's near great.

And he's impressive as he breaks long runs often, something Rutgers doesn't excel at preventing.

Penn State had the number 1 ranked run defense in the nation and did a good job holding him under 90 yards. 

Rutgers has the 95th run defense in the nation. Worse Rutgers has surrendered 914 rushing yard in their last three losses. This is a cause for MAJOR concern.

He will run for a big number and he will score.

Still Penn State held Indiana to a mere 7 points last week and could have easily had as many as 23 points instead of 13.
Translation: Score on Indiana's D and they won't be able to get back in the game, churning up clock with their one-dimensional offense.

Given Coach Flood's press conferences this week, it appears they will use Penn State last week as a template for stopping Coleman. Smart. While they don't have near the talent, they have everything to play for, and that can sometimes result in more than talent can give you.

With Diamont behind center, Coleman's production has dropped off primarily because teams are well-prepared and know Indiana will not pass often, or with any real effectiveness:

After rushing for 219 and a 14.6 avg vs. Iowa, with Zander Diamont behind center he has rushed:

132 (Michigan State), 108 (Michigan), 71 (Penn State) for averages of 8.8, 4.0 and 3.6 his lowest averages and yards of the season. Two of those three games were at Indiana too.

While those run defenses are better than Rutgers, all those team came prepared to do one thing...stop the run. Rutgers will as well.

Time to sum it all up....

Like the Penn State game and the Michigan game before this one:

This is the most important game in Rutgers history so you have motivation on your side.

This is Gary Nova's final home game on Senior Day and he will give life and limb to walk out of here a winner (and when he is good, he is somewhat impressive). 

They have a chance to go to a bowl in their first season in the Big 10. That is quite an accomplishment in their eyes and it will be their sole motivation to win this game.

They are facing a completely one-dimensional offense that can only run the ball, albeit with a great runner. Score on a team like this early and often and put it out of reach as it is tough for a team to get back in this game.

Rutgers has been bit**-slapped by three prolific schools they had no chance against. Indiana is a layup compared to those teams. Even lousy Penn State (and they are not good folks), almost covered a spread of 7 ....at Indiana. This is a home game for Rutgers.

The line is 7. I just can't go heavy on a line like that. It's not smart. It's going to be a chilly 43 degrees tomorrow as a cold front moves through NJ and that favors a ground game.

So I will have the ML and teasers every which way on Rutgers and I will go light on the side. I have a teaser with another game but it appears this board just simply isn't interested in teasers so I'll concentrate on a side.

I don't like units but I'll spell it out like this:

2.7 units on the ML at -270 and 1 unit on the side.

If I win both, it's a 2-0 day. If I lose both it's a 0-4 day (I won't be going 0-4). And if I win just the ML it's a 1-1 day for record keeping.

Rutgers gets it done tomorrow and goes to a bowl in their final home game of the year.

The Pick:

Rutgers ML (2.7 units) at -270

Rutgers -7 (1 unit)

Always enjoy your write ups but you rarely win, you get on some bad luck sides even though they are usually what I consider the "right" side. GL

Rutgers Alumni

Love him or hate him, he is the most prolific passer in Rutgers history.

BTW, not true, Mike Teel was better and has better numbers in almost all categories besides 6 less TD's

Well the passing TD's were what I was referring to. It depends on your definition of 'prolific'.

Nova became Rutgers' all-time leader in touchdown throws. Nova surpassed fellow Don Bosco Prep product Mike Teel, who now serves as a graduate assistant after starting for the Scarlet Knights from 2006-08.

GL scal

I am tailing

Got me thinking... GL scal.

I will do a hundy on them and hopefully thank you later.

Good luck. You have but a single guy on offense to score for you. Yes, that's right, just one.

Or tease them with your favorite game. The teaser is the strongest play but guys here don't care for them.

The ML is the second strongest and I will have a unit on the line.

Well last week they covered against PSU by .5. PSU was on the 2 yd line at the end of the game and was stuffed resulting in a FG that ended up .5 outside the number.

This Coleman kid gets 70/75% of the play on carries and continually eats up clock that's why the ML is a great play. But I'm not coming on here hemming and hawing about a -270 line. 

No passing game whatsoever and I believe Indiana overachieved on defense last week as well. 6.5 is a great number.

I'd really recommend -7. You hit that line up at its peak. Still, it should be a number that RU should cover.