WK 1 Opener Thoughts

Per Circa...  off the bat leans and thoughts...

NC St +11 @ L'ville - Wolfpack w -3 TO's last year and the boom/Bust L'ville managed to get plenty of booms off blown coverage vs injury depleted secondary ... NC St should make a sizable jump back to normal with very experienced team and solid OL / rush attack as solid building blocks from last year... QB being a question that I think will be resolved this year ... by week 1, idk... +11 seems like a good price for pack backers...  

OK St -17 vs Oreg St  - It was 16.5 or so last year in Corvallis and Beavs covered by a half point or so, barely.. that was before we knew Beavs were a quality underdog and OK St had a very capable team... Pay close attention to new Beavs QB Tristan Gebbia he looked legit in very limited action but possible gamer but they lose some very good OL's and superstar WR .. That said I think OK St can lay the wood here with... -21 would be a fairer price in my view.. 

Kentucky -23.5 vs ECU   - I think ECU takes a further dive into the 120's this year, prognosis is really bad for them this year after a cycle of outperforming in recent years... I have Wildcats competing with the Vols to make a move and assert themselves the SEC this year... With Florida on deck I'd expect they don't fool around splitting up QB time between Terry and Smith and really want my defense to get as many reps as possible... I'd think closer to 28 is the number but were really banking on Terry & Co to move the ball and doodle around on offense  as they seem to do .... 

ND -11 @ Navy / Under 54.5 - I think Navy moves super duper slow as they figure out which brand new QB's will be replacing an all time great Perry and could see more than one try out in the opener .. More focus on getting that option timing down, much less on setting up big explosive plays ... Middy's should still have a sticky enough defense so maybe not the ND romp we got last year...  ND -11 feels like its giving Navy a normal HFA value where we had -16 or so being offered for their Ireland game... still at 16 on BOL btw .... I don't think you shade ND a whole lot when Book shredded that Navy D last year so lean ND at -11... Maybe better is Under 54.5 I don't think Navy or ND is trying to maximize their tempo here.. how many drives do you want your DL's getting their legs cut out from under them playing a triple O you'll never see again... maybe get 11 or so drives each with a clock killer near the half? Under 54.5 feels pretty good... 

Couple more.. 

BYU +7 @ Utah - Coogs with solid building blocks coming back with Wilson, entire OL back and Bushman at TE... Should make it much easier to sort out their RB / WR questions  ... Healthy / experienced D, LB group looks really good, Ah-You maybe breakout star .. Utes always top notch in developing talent and big + for them getting Scalley back from 'that' brink... Again we don't really know what a HFA looks like but w Utes dead last in returning production they look like they're getting every benefit of that doubt handing out a free TD. So lean toward the +7 in this one ... BYU schedule is another horror show from the start @Utah, MSU, @ASU, @Minny.. then Mizzou, Hou, Boise, SDSU, Stan... They did find ways to hang with some pretty talented teams LY before falling apart from QB, RB and D injuries ..  I expect we see them turn the corner and be even better than LY's expectations... Very possible they set some low expectations for us early on and become a solid dog down the stretch.. 

CMU -2 vs SJSU - Very skep that SJSU will be the high flying under the radar dog we got last year, I think things return to normal for them without Love at the helm.. Nick Nash looked promising in limited action LY but much more of a dual threat and competing against 2 time xfer Nick Starkel ... My hope for SJSU is we find out Starkel stinks again in the early goings and we maybe get some value with Nash later in the season supported by a great WR group... I Don't think SJ is making any strides on D it could be really ugly for them.. CMU seems like they're on a good trajectory with McElwain in year 3, biggest question is if he can coach up a new QB... Dormady was pretty good but nothing great LY, CMU just had a well rounded team and did get 10 spring practices in which should put the coaches a step ahead going into fall .. Chips have some lofty goals this year after a MAC Champ game let down even though it was a freakishly weird MAC last year... 

Good Stuff , Bud  

Well Bridge , We might have any games to bet yet , but my copy

of Phil Steele's magazine just arrived. That will give me something to

do for right now. Hope we see some decisions made by Conferences

on schedules soon .

Mine arrived today as well!    But, I have to admit, not as enthusiastic to tear it apart and soak in information like in years past...with all the uncertainty...

LH , I know what you mean , bud. I'm not too enthusiastic either until

we know if we'll see some games scheduled and played this season.

Regardless , I wish you good health and success this year.

CIRCA has Northwestern -1 vs Michigan St. If any games get played this one should be one of them. A bus ride of less than 4hours (239 miles)

Northwestern has not lost in East Lansing for some time now, 3-0 since 2010. MSU low on talent, new coaching staff, no spring ball.

NW has Payton Ramsey at QB, new OC who also has had limited to no time to make major changes on offense. NW previously known for slow starts in games 1 & 2. See new OC focusing on just that. I would take NW -1 here.

GL

I like the pick!  NW returns virtually everyone plus my former Hoosiers star QB Ramsey.  MSU loses almost everyone.   Mel Tucker will have a bit of rebuilding spot for a few years.  Michigan State is ripe for a home beat down.   

Last year , production from the QB position was Northwestern's biggest problem.

Even Hunter Johnson , the transfer from Clemson looked lost in the offense.

I see they have a new Offensive Coordinator for this season. That's great.

I just hope Pat Fitzgerald found a capable QB coach as well.

Ahhh yeah saw Phil was out. Could be a rare 50k-of-a-kind piece of college football history due to limited printing this year!!!!

I saw his top 25 which if I recall means 'where they'll end up' prediction... if so looks like he's buying unproven A&M with them in the top 5 and then LSU at 6 and Bama at 3 lol wowzerz.... 

It does seem like top of the SEC food chain getting pretty crowded, unlike most years where they seem to over-pack the SEC near the top I think there's a very possible 5 playoff or very near playoff contenders and another 3 or so worthy of a top 10-20 ranking ... Can't help but think with LSU that after losing all that NFL and coaching talent from great defense and most productive offense (all time?) will likely experience what scientists refer to as 'zi slingenshoot effect' where many regressions synergism together and gravitate them back to earth...  

really hope we get to see it... 

Aw Shucks , now you tell me . I've already got my rosters marked up.  

Yeah it sounds like Northwestern is looking more like prime rib this year at least for cappers!!! woot woot!! I grew up a short walk from the stadium, that '95 team ohhh man, I may not have this great addiction if not for them... 

Wasn't just Hunter, they gave the other QB a shot, same results... that OC always has them near the bottom in yards per attempt the last many years but dead last in '19 with 4.2 y/att and dead last in yards per completion at 8.4 .. Umass, Rutgers and Vandy sitting on top of them in both categories ... A perfect storm of the bad QB, OC and WR group.. didn't help either the RB's kept getting injured..... we know they've potentially upgraded two of those but think the WR's will be the diff in making the trip from awful to decent... 

A big offensive turnaround with the new QB/Coordinators would be alot to put together in this offseason ... if Sparty and their super low expectations can finagle out a win in the opener and NU offense doesn't look like it's clicking I'd expect the Cats pick up a ton of value going forward ... 

Looks like a wagering opportuntiy to me . I hope we get to see it as well. 

Like the NW angle too.  Just curious has anybody heard on if that game would still be played 9/5 with the new schedule changes or pushed back to that 9/26 weekend? 

Good stuff Bridge! The BYU +7 is my favorite. One of the my "play on" teams BYU vs one of my "play against" teams Utah. I'm also liking Notre Dame. But ND will be another team I'm going to be careful with this year. Whenever I see "public teams" like Notre Dame have a great ATS season like they did in 2019, it's always an AUTOMATIC for me to proceed with caution playing them the next season. ND never has 2 great ATS seasons in a row, so I'll be picking my spots carefully with the Irish this year. I also feel the same way with Okie St. They had a great ATS season last year winning 9 games ATS, and everybody is expecting big things out of them this year. History tells me when the Pokes disappoint the public, it's because they had high expectations (like this year). I would much rather them be picked around the middle in the Big 12 pack like last year and years past when they've been a good cover team. It gives them more room to surprise people and less chance of the big spreads that they'll have to cover this year. This Oregon St. game could be a good barometer. If they win Big over Oregon St. I think it's going to make it difficult for OSU going forward. The public will bet them up. And because of their defense, they've always been a shaky prospect away from home as faves in the Big 12. 

DOC - Good to seeya hope all is well buddy!!!!

Yeah dude I have a couple concerns with the Coogs, with some concerns at the skill spots kinda makes you wonder if were in for another dud offense but I just think if they can keep the team healthy they're in for a bit of a boomerang effect because it was getting close to 'there' last year before things took a turn...... unfortunately that RB they snagged from Utah sounds like he's xfering again... to Utah State ...

On that note really need a quick and easy resource to track these late xfers because its getting infinitely trickier... and can only imagine how easy it will be for players to go ahead and xfer and sit-out or take a redshirt .. and coaches too .. no better time to take a mulligan and get a young team ready for '21... Most of the MW might qualify for that lol... But teams that are off a mulligan or otherwise really geared up for this year might have fewer obstacles .. 

Agree on OK.St they'll have alot of eyes on them this year... BIG-12 has been top to bottom tough the last few years... sans Kans, maybe T-Tech... but 8 or so teams capable of knocking off the others any given week for a few years now so tough to find value with improved teams ...  But seems like maybe a bit more of a hierarchy this year with a pretty clear top 4 or 5 ..  I do think OK St will be throwing some next level heat this year and D should be a nice surprise so think we'll find a few spots if they don't annihilate everyone out the gate .... Also looking at TCU as an under the radar special... 

Bridge...Although I've glossed over every team, I'm just now digging deeper into each conference, starting with the Big 12. This is going to be a very tough conference to get a handle on. I haven't really found a good win total I like for the Big 12 this year. TCU is ALWAYS a perplexing team. They have the defense to keep them in every game, but have lacked the QB to get them over the top. Plus the injury bug seems to derail them every year. If Duggan can remain upright and have even a small breakout type season, then they'll perform better than expectations. Keep in mind that I'm strictly handicapping from an ATS perspective. TCU won just 4 games ATS last year, and they seldom throw in two stinkers in back to back seasons. So I'll be watching them close and looking for some good betting spots. There should plenty this year. They played 7 games last year where the lines were less than 4 +/-. After a losing season and being picked in the 2nd half of the Big 12 (6th), it should help their cause with these lines. They played 7 games last season that were decided by a touchdown or less. If they had been given an extra 3 or 4 points with some of those lines they could have been around a 7 game ATS winner instead of 4. Which would have been more money in my pocket since I was on the losing end of a couple of those close games. As for Okie St, they will definitely be able to hurt teams with their offense. This is probably the most solid team that Gundy has had in 5 years. But all eyes will be on them. If they win the Big 12, I think they'll be overcoming a fair share of close games to get there. I mean, we're talking about two totally different things when it comes to SU/ATS wins. Just look at LSU in 2007. They won the national championship, but were terrible money burners covering only 3 games ATS! Kind of the same with the Sooners last year. They won the Big 12 and went to the Playoff, but won only 4 games ATS. 

We’re speaking the same language Doc, totally with you on the SU/ATS dichotomy .. you’d think one of the zillions of preview mags would do more in hypothesizing a teams betting angles rather than just where the team ranks and best guess on the conference order ... untapped market... Could be a big hit if done by the right folks ... Maybe they can crack the mystery of why the masses are always scratching their heads after week 1 when they spent all summer buried in the Steele mag lol... I mean if I’m the sportsbook I know nobody has much of a clue what’s really going on w any of the teams in the offseason... especially this one with no reporters around .. So of course I’ll let you all risk your finger if you want to bet on UNC, A&M, USC, or any other high profile mag darlings in the early goings....

OkSt is squarely in my mag darling group but still it was kindof a ho-humm year after looking great early and not a strong finish w sanders out .. they’re squarely behind OK in the previews and all meshed together with Texas another fan fav which takes the spotlight off them a bit ... If healthy I think they’re in position to be better than the 2015 team but I’m hoping the road to get there keeps their value in tact a little more like Baylor last year and not trying to do the track meet every game like those past Pokes did .. The hope is we get a really solid under the radar D and Hubbard to strangle the Big B12 offenses and have the team develop around that ... Sanders just an avg 60% hitter LY and has room to progress in yr 2 and would like to see it’s by way of developing some RB/TE targets which weren’t at all used LY and maybe more strategy in the QB runs runs rather than scrambling around trying to rack up 1500 yd receivers  .. So kinda stuck hoping Grundy has caught on that he’ll never get to the top by outgunning everyone in the BIG12 .. will be looking for some info on what to expect and see the first few games... if we’re getting track meets early and often then yeah I’ll just have to just be a fan .. either way they go I still like the -16 spot at home vs Oreg St in the now hypothetical opener ...

good luck buddy!

Yeah and Doc I think TCU sets up well to outperform....  the QB situation last year alone would lend itself to getting some value but its been a couple years now of fooling around with QB's and the SU/ATS slide tracks along with that... haven't been stable since the good Kenny Trill year ... But also I think every unit other than maybe RB had MAJOR injury issues LY... best OL, bunch of WR's and I count 9 underclassmen in their top 15 tacklers (6 freshman!) which was definitely not the preseason plan lol...   

Feels alot like the headlines are reading that the 4 NFL studs depart the crappy 5 win (barely) team but there's actually a ton of experience now and they ended up finding a couple real gems in their freshman ranks at DB and many other contributors ... And then attracted a couple interesting xfers and the big time RB recruit signed well after all the signing day hooplah ... Definitely one of the more under the radar rebuild paths lol... 

I think the main personnel thing to keep an eye on is the OL...Steele is sounding pretty optimistic on their retooled unit but the real concern there is the QB sitch is on ultra thin ice...  Delton xfered out mid '19 (as a Sr.. wtf?), Collins xferred to Rice.... None of those guys were worth much but even Phil's depth chart has one guy who medically retired and they're left with 2 walk-ons and a true freshman if good'ole Jimmy Duggan gets a little too punch drunk out there again ... And the OL depth looks like 2 RS Fr and practically no experience backing them up so I'd be jittery  gotta hope those 5 really hold up... 

Have to wonder how Patterson plans to handle that QB/OL depth situation in the game.... Maybe Duggan runs the ball less?... he was good for about 10 or so runs LY ... The bigger impact might be whether or (maybe when) Coach decides to pull him when a game is not in doubt ... I can't imagine you leave him in any longer than needed ... And maybe same is said for the OL because if they are confident in the starting 5 how long do you risk any of them before you start proving out the inexperienced depth chart?.... If a game ever pans out that way it could get rather interesting in a bad way for Frog backers ...  

Good luck buddy!

Few thoughts on Indy for this year... 

Hoosiers sitting in that cusp of the top 25 preseason rankings after a BIG improvement on offense and maybe less noticeable but had a move on D LY too winning 8 and beat all the teams they should have while covering 8 ... They return virtually the full arsenal on both sides but sit squarely behind the bigger names in their division. It's not quite the preseason radar setup Minny had last year but pretty close.. Minny weren't quite as impressive in '18 covering 8 but only winning 6 before a smackdown of GT in the bowl game. It was apparent they were building to a good year in '19 and were bumped up in the 30's or so preseason still squarely behind Nebraska, Wisco, Iowa in the division and muddled up with NU and Purdue for the bottom 3 ... Hoosiers maybe even more squarely behind the tops in the East but hard to place them behind MD, Mich St or Rutgers ... So def a few more eyes on Indy since they were a really good dog LY... Also should note that Minny had cover early in '19 with close ones vs FCS SD.St, Fres St and GA-So before going on the EPIC run in Conf....

Couple concerns... Pennix had a smokin completion % but besides maybe Mich St and NU never really faced the heavy hitters on D in the conference.. Ramsey did all the work vs Mich, PSU, OSU, and Tenn in the Bowl so if Wisco week 1 is still on then he'll get a big early test.. OL was not the best LY but did lose their best guy Coy Cronk early on (xfer to Iowa TY) and the run game was never a serious threat.. If they're gunna break out again this year that'll need to shape up. Like Minny LY the team otherwise had very few injuries so what we saw is really what we get only vastly more experienced plus recruiting / xfer additions look good. I don't see much depth concerns either except OL.. Starting 5 have good size and experience but almost no experience and 2 RS Fr backups .. coulda really used Coy again this year up front... Also promoted new OC Nick Sheridan from QB coach so will be worth looking into what changes if anything scheme-wise.. 

I think there's a big surprise coming from the D, they were very solid vs the lesser competition LY w 3 to UConn, 3 to NU, and blanking Rut and E.Mich which is notable because in '18 they weren't close to blanking anyone .... But then the D gives up 36/game to the rest in conference which is par for the course .... plenty of room to make a jump ... Almost all the ones and the twos are very experienced, much stronger look than what they were working within going into LY, and also at least one in each unit that's started last 2 years with a few others w 2 years when counting contributing backup roles.. A bit more leap of faith but on a trajectory and D was looking capable vs Tenn in the bowl game.. 

Def the kinda team that could follow in the Minny footprint if they stumble a bit early but manage to keep themselves healthy ... Big upset vs Wisco early (totally possible) along with some OL injuries could spell trouble in the ATS department.. 

One other on the Indy side of the B1G to check out is MD..... Terps totally decimated by injuries last year on O (couple years now) numerous injuries at QB, OL, WR, and a couple more out at LB and DB .. It was a senior laden defense LY but didn't have alot to work with on either side of the ball and also transitioning in the new coach regimes and switching to 3-4 on D... And that was after a couple years of a fast moving coaching carousel...  It all spelled trouble and both sides fell significantly last year.. 

There's quite a bit of young talent slated to start and bunch of xfers and injury returnees and alot of questions in general from a team that has left a really bad taste with gamblers for a few years now... in no small part because they have recruited fairly well and always look like they could be primed to make a move and follow a pattern of ripping some way overvalued teams out the gate for big SU/ATS wins .... then lay on the gas vs the very weakest on their schedule before giving it all back and alot more down the stretch ... A 36% conference ATS mark since 2016 sandwiches them between TCU and Florida State at the bottom of that list .... Pretty bad company.... 

They look at least a year away from being a quality #3 or 4th in their division and they're entering a year when nobody knows who the QB will be and probably won't have any more confidence when they do... Just getting on the right trajectory would start to land them a few ATS wins and if they can stay healthy and off the early radar detectors it wouldn't surprise if we find them under .500 SU and over 60% ATS this year since I see them as being a 10 point dog at least in most of their conf games...  If instead you see Tua Jr. start the first game and he RIPS that depleted Minny D for 400+ and they're +3 in TO's in a MONSTER win then maybe just cash that ticket and move on lol... 

I have a soft place in my heart for Maryland because I won my single biggest bet on them a few years ago. But geez, Locksley has such a bad coaching record, I just don't know if I can ever trust them again. 

Bridge , I agree with your assessment of IU this year. I'm hoping to play

them in a couple of spots this season...... If I can get the right price.

Circa has the Wisc. / IU matchup currently at 16 ' . We'll see where that

line goes as 5 dimes has them at 13 ' .

Yeah Wise hope we see it on that +16 side of things ... Unsure what the total is but have to figure Indy woulda been good for about 20 give or take vs Wisco LY .. so let's just say 36-20 is the books assumed final here... 

Wisco is interesting, I think it'll be really tough for the offense to progress after losing Taylor and Cephus which was almost half the runs and receptions .... plus replacing a few good ones on the OL.. We'll see if Coan needs to step out of the game manager role too.. He was connecting at 70% on the year but that relied on effective running 2/3's of the time ... Filter out the blowouts and easy games and he was still pretty good in the manager role w/ 65% but down a yard / att and 7-4 ratio .. so now take away the best weapons and we'll see what happens.... Looking Macro I'm seeing less than 25% of QB's repeat a monster comp % year in that 70% area and a few who did were pretty familiar names like Andrew Luck, Chase Daniel, Teddy B, Baker, Johnny Football ... not exactly game managers and for them I think their best weapons stuck around .. maybe just as important is they had some solid mobility .. Kinda the opposite in every way for Coan .... For the vast majority that regressed it was 5% lower on avg and I'd expect that happens for Coan this year... in the non-blow out games like I think Indy will be I'd expect a bigger drop if he's gunna take on more attempts ...or .... Wisco just sticks to grinding out the close ones like we're used to seeing over the years... and maybe a few big upset alerts ...   

Wisco D was playing at a pretty high level last year so maybe they progress but tough to be much better ... and might be some bias because they didn't play too many strong offenses LY .. Michigan was clearly struggling in the early goings under the new coordinator, NU, MSU, were inept all year.. Purdue, Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois were pretty shaky but still good for 3TDs finding success through the air ... Really good vs Minny's O in a bit of a storm ... that first half of OSU was one for the books... Great vs Oregon.... Indy's O from last year would have ranked where, maybe 3rd or 4th best?.. 

Good luck!