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    All Forums | College Football

    Why does a line move?

    «First Previous 12
    WISEGUY36
    dcrich
    Wizard41
    stats1
    Gumbajohnny
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
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    Posts: 36
    «First Previous 12
     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posts: 34171
    Posted: Aug. 2, 2014 - 1:29 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:






    GW, That's very interesing , as that has only happened to
    me once in my wagering career , and it happened at the
    MGM also. I have never been back there since.






    GW, I remember the experience well. In fact, the guy in
    front of me was betting 10 g's on the same game I was.
    He had to count his out 3 times and it took forever.
    When I stepped up to make my wager, he said the game
    started and I got stopped out.
    PS It was a winner as also.



    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:






    GW, That's very interesing , as that has only happened to
    me once in my wagering career , and it happened at the
    MGM also. I have never been back there since.






    GW, I remember the experience well. In fact, the guy in
    front of me was betting 10 g's on the same game I was.
    He had to count his out 3 times and it took forever.
    When I stepped up to make my wager, he said the game
    started and I got stopped out.
    PS It was a winner as also.



     
    dcrich
    dcrich
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    Posted: Aug. 2, 2014 - 3:16 PM ET #27

    Great information.  I too will lookup Sonny and research.
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    Great information.  I too will lookup Sonny and research.
     
    Wizard41
    Wizard41
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    Posts: 408
    Posted: Aug. 4, 2014 - 10:08 PM ET #28

    If you have a lean. A side you like at -21 and line moves  -22 or -23. You most likely are on the right side of the line movement. 

    If u see reverse line movement against your opinion. Or against public opinion. I would not bet the game. 

    I would bet a line i liked that moves with that team

    You have to have a sense who is moving the line. You either know that or you dont. Its not a teachable thing. 
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    If you have a lean. A side you like at -21 and line moves  -22 or -23. You most likely are on the right side of the line movement. 

    If u see reverse line movement against your opinion. Or against public opinion. I would not bet the game. 

    I would bet a line i liked that moves with that team

    You have to have a sense who is moving the line. You either know that or you dont. Its not a teachable thing. 
     
    stats1
    stats1
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    Posts: 8153
    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 1:11 AM ET #29

    Any1 can say or believe what they want but certain groups of players can move a line especially totals  n college football or college basketball 3-7 points depending on how much is put down on the game!!!! the way websites r these days they dictate the lines!!! Vegas is the last 1's to get hit with the large money plays... I know 1st hand how this works... Certain people or groups of players want to get 500k or more on a game they send out a text at 2:00 to play over 56.5 n the ga game at 2:10 the places these people r putting in bets r usually 3k to 20k bets they usually won't mess with a book unless they can at least get 3k n on a game so at 2:10 multiple people flood websites across the us with pay per head books and off shore accounts placing bets by 2:13 or 2:15 the line will jump anywhere from 4,5,6 points Vegas has already seen the major jump and adjust quick then u have people how follow line movements and they follow but playing over 56.5 or 60.5 n my opinion is a big difference!!! this very rarely ever happens n NFL     1 last thing with college football when games r on a key # take -6 some groups will call n an order to hammer ga. -6 for 500k but they really don't want Ga. they want there opponent which then the line goes to 7.5 or 8 so they then come back over the top with a million and have a free shot at a great middle, I have seen this stuff 1st hand and to anyone who says this kind of stuff doesn't happen u r dead wrong!!!! certain groups of players can move the # at any time 
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    Any1 can say or believe what they want but certain groups of players can move a line especially totals  n college football or college basketball 3-7 points depending on how much is put down on the game!!!! the way websites r these days they dictate the lines!!! Vegas is the last 1's to get hit with the large money plays... I know 1st hand how this works... Certain people or groups of players want to get 500k or more on a game they send out a text at 2:00 to play over 56.5 n the ga game at 2:10 the places these people r putting in bets r usually 3k to 20k bets they usually won't mess with a book unless they can at least get 3k n on a game so at 2:10 multiple people flood websites across the us with pay per head books and off shore accounts placing bets by 2:13 or 2:15 the line will jump anywhere from 4,5,6 points Vegas has already seen the major jump and adjust quick then u have people how follow line movements and they follow but playing over 56.5 or 60.5 n my opinion is a big difference!!! this very rarely ever happens n NFL     1 last thing with college football when games r on a key # take -6 some groups will call n an order to hammer ga. -6 for 500k but they really don't want Ga. they want there opponent which then the line goes to 7.5 or 8 so they then come back over the top with a million and have a free shot at a great middle, I have seen this stuff 1st hand and to anyone who says this kind of stuff doesn't happen u r dead wrong!!!! certain groups of players can move the # at any time 
     
    stats1
    stats1
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    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 1:14 AM ET #30

    4got to mention in above post these plays r usually put n no later then wed. these groups aren't doing this on a Sat. 
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    4got to mention in above post these plays r usually put n no later then wed. these groups aren't doing this on a Sat. 
     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posts: 34171
    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 2:56 AM ET #31

    For me, once I've prescreened the games that fit my
    profile to make a wager on,I establish a number that must
    match the line must be for me to bet that position.
    If I get my number or a more favorable one , I make the
    wager. If I do not get the number I need , I pass on it or
    if it looks line the line will move in my direction , I will
    wait for it to get there. I will not bet a number that is out
    of my established value , as then I am placing the burden
    of additional risk on me.
    Generally before the lines go up, I'll have a pretty good
    idea of which games are likely to be available to me.
    For me, this takes the guesswork out of the process and
    the discipline improves my rate of return. In my model it
    makes no difference who moves the line, It's only
    important that I see the number I need to make the bet.

    Best of Luck to All 
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    For me, once I've prescreened the games that fit my
    profile to make a wager on,I establish a number that must
    match the line must be for me to bet that position.
    If I get my number or a more favorable one , I make the
    wager. If I do not get the number I need , I pass on it or
    if it looks line the line will move in my direction , I will
    wait for it to get there. I will not bet a number that is out
    of my established value , as then I am placing the burden
    of additional risk on me.
    Generally before the lines go up, I'll have a pretty good
    idea of which games are likely to be available to me.
    For me, this takes the guesswork out of the process and
    the discipline improves my rate of return. In my model it
    makes no difference who moves the line, It's only
    important that I see the number I need to make the bet.

    Best of Luck to All 
     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2012
    Posts: 34171
    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 2:58 AM ET #32

     For me, once I've prescreened the games that fit my
    profile to make a wager on,I establish a number that must
    match what the line must be for me to bet that position.
    If I get my number or a more favorable one , I make the
    wager. If I do not get the number I need , I pass on it or
    if it looks line the line will move in my direction , I will
    wait for it to get there. I will not bet a number that is out
    of my established value , as then I am placing the burden
    of additional risk on me.
    Generally before the lines go up, I'll have a pretty good
    idea of which games are likely to be available to me.
    For me, this takes the guesswork out of the process and
    the discipline improves my rate of return. In my model it
    makes no difference who moves the line, It's only
    important that I see the number I need to make the bet.

    Best of Luck to All 
    [/Quote]
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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     For me, once I've prescreened the games that fit my
    profile to make a wager on,I establish a number that must
    match what the line must be for me to bet that position.
    If I get my number or a more favorable one , I make the
    wager. If I do not get the number I need , I pass on it or
    if it looks line the line will move in my direction , I will
    wait for it to get there. I will not bet a number that is out
    of my established value , as then I am placing the burden
    of additional risk on me.
    Generally before the lines go up, I'll have a pretty good
    idea of which games are likely to be available to me.
    For me, this takes the guesswork out of the process and
    the discipline improves my rate of return. In my model it
    makes no difference who moves the line, It's only
    important that I see the number I need to make the bet.

    Best of Luck to All 
    [/Quote]
     
    Gumbajohnny
    Gumbajohnny
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    Joined: Sep, 2013
    Posts: 598
    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 9:29 AM ET #33

    Good stuff wise guy great memories as we'll.
    As I'm enjoying the youth of my middle age Vegas has lost a lot of its appeal to me..
    Gone are the days were a pit boss would toss you a comp of any type because you were having a bad day on the table..
    I miss the old mob days this new mob (Wall Street) they suck..
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    Good stuff wise guy great memories as we'll.
    As I'm enjoying the youth of my middle age Vegas has lost a lot of its appeal to me..
    Gone are the days were a pit boss would toss you a comp of any type because you were having a bad day on the table..
    I miss the old mob days this new mob (Wall Street) they suck..
     
    gwjtf
    gwjtf
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    Posts: 613
    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 10:07 AM ET #34

    Of course wiseguy that is the only way to play if you are a regular, serious player ... establish a number you consider gives you value and bet the games that give you that value.  Like doing your due diligence in any investment opportunity. 

    How many games do you typically get down on in a week/season?

    GW
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    Of course wiseguy that is the only way to play if you are a regular, serious player ... establish a number you consider gives you value and bet the games that give you that value.  Like doing your due diligence in any investment opportunity. 

    How many games do you typically get down on in a week/season?

    GW
     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Joined: Jul, 2012
    Posts: 34171
    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 10:20 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by Gumbajohnny:

    Good stuff wise guy great memories as we'll.
    As I'm enjoying the youth of my middle age Vegas has lost a lot of its appeal to me..
    Gone are the days were a pit boss would toss you a comp of any type because you were having a bad day on the table..
    I miss the old mob days this new mob (Wall Street) they suck..






    Thanks , Bud, Yeah it's changed but It's still the place to
    be during college football season. The fact that it now is
    business has sharpened my skills over the years and
    that still makes it fun.
    Some things remain the same though, " As long as you
    take care of your cocktail server you'll be fine".
    Back in the days before I moved to LV, I could leave a
    few G's with my favorite beverage maidens to make
    wagers for me until I got into town on Fridays. That was
    something that made my LV visits special.


    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gumbajohnny:

    Good stuff wise guy great memories as we'll.
    As I'm enjoying the youth of my middle age Vegas has lost a lot of its appeal to me..
    Gone are the days were a pit boss would toss you a comp of any type because you were having a bad day on the table..
    I miss the old mob days this new mob (Wall Street) they suck..






    Thanks , Bud, Yeah it's changed but It's still the place to
    be during college football season. The fact that it now is
    business has sharpened my skills over the years and
    that still makes it fun.
    Some things remain the same though, " As long as you
    take care of your cocktail server you'll be fine".
    Back in the days before I moved to LV, I could leave a
    few G's with my favorite beverage maidens to make
    wagers for me until I got into town on Fridays. That was
    something that made my LV visits special.


     
     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2012
    Posts: 34171
    Posted: Aug. 6, 2014 - 10:26 AM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

    Of course wiseguy that is the only way to play if you are a regular, serious player ... establish a number you consider gives you value and bet the games that give you that value.  Like doing your due diligence in any investment opportunity. 

    How many games do you typically get down on in a week/season?

    GW







    It depends, not more than 1 - 3 per week. Establishing
    a stringent criteria limits opportunity. Some weeks there
    are no matchups that fit the parameters.


    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

    Of course wiseguy that is the only way to play if you are a regular, serious player ... establish a number you consider gives you value and bet the games that give you that value.  Like doing your due diligence in any investment opportunity. 

    How many games do you typically get down on in a week/season?

    GW







    It depends, not more than 1 - 3 per week. Establishing
    a stringent criteria limits opportunity. Some weeks there
    are no matchups that fit the parameters.


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