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    All Forums | College Football

    What usually is the Bowl strategy

    Sulldog13
    gotime
    SexyChoc
    invest4profits
    jimrockford22
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    Sulldog13
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2023 - 8:44 AM ET #1

    Tough with transfer portal and seniors sitting out, but is it smart to wait to get wagers in or look to put them in now? 

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Tough with transfer portal and seniors sitting out, but is it smart to wait to get wagers in or look to put them in now? 

     
    gotime
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2023 - 9:45 AM ET #2

    @Sulldog13

     Some people will buy in to certain games right now if they see an edge in the line. With all of the transfer portal, players sitting out and possible injuries leading up to the game I wait until 2 days or less to wager. Alot of different strategies and everyone bets differently. 

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    @Sulldog13

     Some people will buy in to certain games right now if they see an edge in the line. With all of the transfer portal, players sitting out and possible injuries leading up to the game I wait until 2 days or less to wager. Alot of different strategies and everyone bets differently. 

     
    SexyChoc
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2023 - 10:09 AM ET #3

    It used to be --- 

    Bet on Underdogs until the New year and then bet on the favorites after that.

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    It used to be --- 

    Bet on Underdogs until the New year and then bet on the favorites after that.

     
    invest4profits
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2023 - 11:51 AM ET #4

    @Sulldog13

     Pretty much figuring out which teams are actually trying and have motivation and which aren't... kind of stupid but thats they way its setup unfortunately.. cant wait for the expansion

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    @Sulldog13

     Pretty much figuring out which teams are actually trying and have motivation and which aren't... kind of stupid but thats they way its setup unfortunately.. cant wait for the expansion

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2023 - 5:37 PM ET #5

    Better defense...

    Better running team offense and defense.. Some combo.. Differential

    Upstart teams die especially highly ranked one's

    Fade big passing teams

    Fade teams that won't care..... Nfl draft guys

    Early vs late bowls, as mentioned..  I think it's dogs early but not sure

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    Better defense...

    Better running team offense and defense.. Some combo.. Differential

    Upstart teams die especially highly ranked one's

    Fade big passing teams

    Fade teams that won't care..... Nfl draft guys

    Early vs late bowls, as mentioned..  I think it's dogs early but not sure

     
    rf_dawg
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2023 - 8:51 PM ET #6

    Best to let your money sit on the sidelines and enjoy the games. These days with the opt outs, transfer portal, injuries, academic eligibility... you never know who's going to play and which teams are motivated. 

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    Best to let your money sit on the sidelines and enjoy the games. These days with the opt outs, transfer portal, injuries, academic eligibility... you never know who's going to play and which teams are motivated. 

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2023 - 8:57 PM ET #7

    It's the just same as it is during the regular season.

    To cash as many tickets from you Bookmakers as we can.  an_wink

     

    an_cheers

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    It's the just same as it is during the regular season.

    To cash as many tickets from you Bookmakers as we can.  an_wink

     

    an_cheers

     
    Moose1986
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 6:56 AM ET #8

    @rf_dawg

     I couldn’t agree more! This is EXACTLY what I will be doing. You’re not even capping a game during the Bowls. You’re capping people and their emotional commitment. Plus they are Gen Z, most likely liberal, college kids. 

    I know in the Semifinals there will be no gauging the motivation. It’s already there. Washington and Alabama win straight up! Huskies take the title!

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    @rf_dawg

     I couldn’t agree more! This is EXACTLY what I will be doing. You’re not even capping a game during the Bowls. You’re capping people and their emotional commitment. Plus they are Gen Z, most likely liberal, college kids. 

    I know in the Semifinals there will be no gauging the motivation. It’s already there. Washington and Alabama win straight up! Huskies take the title!

     
    vetdrm
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 11:00 AM ET #9

     unders

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     unders

     
    steponaduck
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 12:14 PM ET #10

    play on any team who wears white away uniforms...was seriously a strategy the last couples of years...i am merely being facetious 

    Until the wallet is full.
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    play on any team who wears white away uniforms...was seriously a strategy the last couples of years...i am merely being facetious 

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 1:19 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck:

    play on any team who wears white away uniforms...was seriously a strategy the last couples of years...i am merely being facetious

     

    I wonder how many bettors actually cashed using that strategy.  bigsmile

     

    an_roll_laughan_roll_laugh  an_cheers

    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck:

    play on any team who wears white away uniforms...was seriously a strategy the last couples of years...i am merely being facetious

     

    I wonder how many bettors actually cashed using that strategy.  bigsmile

     

    an_roll_laughan_roll_laugh  an_cheers

     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 3:31 PM ET #12

    @jimrockford22

     dogs early, faves late. used to play it all the time. Hasn't been good for quite some time.

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    @jimrockford22

     dogs early, faves late. used to play it all the time. Hasn't been good for quite some time.

     
    jimrockford22
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    Posted: Dec. 5, 2023 - 3:46 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    @jimrockford22  dogs early, faves late. used to play it all the time. Hasn't been good for quite some time.

    Thank you :)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

    @jimrockford22  dogs early, faves late. used to play it all the time. Hasn't been good for quite some time.

    Thank you :)

     
    boro33
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2023 - 1:58 PM ET #14

    A poster use to have a system called running with the dogs. I can’t remember the name of the poster but it was money. I remember team needs to be a dog, better running game. There was a few more filters too 

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    A poster use to have a system called running with the dogs. I can’t remember the name of the poster but it was money. I remember team needs to be a dog, better running game. There was a few more filters too 

     
    mak104
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    Posted: Dec. 8, 2023 - 8:22 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck:

    play on any team who wears white away uniforms...was seriously a strategy the last couples of years...i am merely being facetious

     

    What about gray?

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    Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck:

    play on any team who wears white away uniforms...was seriously a strategy the last couples of years...i am merely being facetious

     

    What about gray?

     
    boro33
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    Posted: Dec. 12, 2023 - 7:13 PM ET #16

    @jimrockford22

     Do you happen to remember the poster that would figure out the running of the dogs?

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    @jimrockford22

     Do you happen to remember the poster that would figure out the running of the dogs?

     
    KeyMaster
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    Posted: Dec. 12, 2023 - 7:47 PM ET #17

    Dr. Strangelove does the running dogs strategy

    win

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    Dr. Strangelove does the running dogs strategy

    win

     
    boro33
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    Posted: Dec. 13, 2023 - 2:58 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by KeyMaster:

    Dr. Strangelove does the running dogs strategy

     

    Thank you 

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    Quote Originally Posted by KeyMaster:

    Dr. Strangelove does the running dogs strategy

     

    Thank you 

     
    bookieassassin
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    Posted: Dec. 13, 2023 - 3:14 PM ET #19

    Where did this team want to be, when the season began?
    * have their goals been met?
    * or, is their more work to be done?
    >> has their story, been written?

    KEY : is the quality of their PREPARATION > you play like you practice


    FACTORS TO CONSIDER

    1) State / direction of the program-
    * getting better or worse?
    * does this game matter?

    2) HC's bowl history?
    * FACT - some don't care about winning - they like the extra work
    * some use it as a vacation/reward

    3) who will be available?
    * is the HC likely to leave?

    4) What happened in their last bowl game?
    * a huge W, or get blown out?
    >> imagine your friends/family travel to see you play and you get embarrassed ...
    * I like to use Steele - recent bowl history is right there, along with big picture stuff.

    5) Travel / crowd edge
    * weather issues too - eg, warm weather school to cold
    * actual number of practice days - finals interfering?
    * LONG bus ride to save money?

    6) MATCHUP issues
    * defense has the edge after a long layoff
    * watch out for teams that have turned the ball over
    * ST / FP edges can make a big difference


    IDEAS / STRATEGY


    1) JUST PICK THE WINNER
    * SU winner usually covers in bowls - esp. in the early games
    >> play the dog on the ML

    2) FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT
    * in bowls it is more profitable to follow - not fade

    3) BE AWARE OF A TEAM'S HIGHS/LOWS
    * often a team that finished strong IS DONE - their goals have been met
    * while a team that struggled late - may use the bowl to save their season (Air Force?)
    * fade or avoid the BURST BUBBLE TEAM

    4) A TEAM IS READY TO PLAY OR IT AIN'T
    * almost never - does a team 'find it' once the game begins
    >> especially in the early games
    $$ unless a dominant QB - playing his last game

    5) INTERIM COACHES HAVEN'T MATTERED MUCH
    * even become a 'play on' team as of late

    6) PLAY TEAMS THAT WON THEIR 6TH THE LAST GAME
    * about a 70% play recently - 74% is stunk the year before

    7) FADE THE BOWL VIRGIN
    * 1st bowl ever, or in a long while, usually means it's a reward - vacation

    8) "WHO WANTS IT MORE?"
    >> don't get bogged down with all this crap - they are just tools in your toolbox
    $ always go back to this
     
    It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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    Where did this team want to be, when the season began?
    * have their goals been met?
    * or, is their more work to be done?
    >> has their story, been written?

    KEY : is the quality of their PREPARATION > you play like you practice


    FACTORS TO CONSIDER

    1) State / direction of the program-
    * getting better or worse?
    * does this game matter?

    2) HC's bowl history?
    * FACT - some don't care about winning - they like the extra work
    * some use it as a vacation/reward

    3) who will be available?
    * is the HC likely to leave?

    4) What happened in their last bowl game?
    * a huge W, or get blown out?
    >> imagine your friends/family travel to see you play and you get embarrassed ...
    * I like to use Steele - recent bowl history is right there, along with big picture stuff.

    5) Travel / crowd edge
    * weather issues too - eg, warm weather school to cold
    * actual number of practice days - finals interfering?
    * LONG bus ride to save money?

    6) MATCHUP issues
    * defense has the edge after a long layoff
    * watch out for teams that have turned the ball over
    * ST / FP edges can make a big difference


    IDEAS / STRATEGY


    1) JUST PICK THE WINNER
    * SU winner usually covers in bowls - esp. in the early games
    >> play the dog on the ML

    2) FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT
    * in bowls it is more profitable to follow - not fade

    3) BE AWARE OF A TEAM'S HIGHS/LOWS
    * often a team that finished strong IS DONE - their goals have been met
    * while a team that struggled late - may use the bowl to save their season (Air Force?)
    * fade or avoid the BURST BUBBLE TEAM

    4) A TEAM IS READY TO PLAY OR IT AIN'T
    * almost never - does a team 'find it' once the game begins
    >> especially in the early games
    $$ unless a dominant QB - playing his last game

    5) INTERIM COACHES HAVEN'T MATTERED MUCH
    * even become a 'play on' team as of late

    6) PLAY TEAMS THAT WON THEIR 6TH THE LAST GAME
    * about a 70% play recently - 74% is stunk the year before

    7) FADE THE BOWL VIRGIN
    * 1st bowl ever, or in a long while, usually means it's a reward - vacation

    8) "WHO WANTS IT MORE?"
    >> don't get bogged down with all this crap - they are just tools in your toolbox
    $ always go back to this
     
     
    Sulldog13
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    Posted: Dec. 13, 2023 - 3:23 PM ET #20

    @bookieassassin

     So who you got?

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    @bookieassassin

     So who you got?

     
    fitchris562
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    Posted: Dec. 13, 2023 - 3:55 PM ET #21

    Take the Dogs ML for the first 38 games forget about the points.

    Yes all the games until NYears. Usually the points don't matter.

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    Take the Dogs ML for the first 38 games forget about the points.

    Yes all the games until NYears. Usually the points don't matter.

     
    BradytheK9
    BradytheK9
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    Posted: Dec. 14, 2023 - 11:44 AM ET #22

    One year I went with whichever team was closest to home state in each game. I ended up actually finishing in 1st place in our $25 pool which had 32 people that particular year  with payouts 500/200/100. Not so much a strategy, I just decided to do that instead of flipping coin for every game like I had done year before where Heads=Fave & Tails=Dog . Think I only won like 12 games that year lol!

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    One year I went with whichever team was closest to home state in each game. I ended up actually finishing in 1st place in our $25 pool which had 32 people that particular year  with payouts 500/200/100. Not so much a strategy, I just decided to do that instead of flipping coin for every game like I had done year before where Heads=Fave & Tails=Dog . Think I only won like 12 games that year lol!

     
    Fuse
    Fuse
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    Posts: 84676
    Posted: Dec. 14, 2023 - 2:41 PM ET #23

    Great question peace_5peaceclover

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
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    Great question peace_5peaceclover

     
     
    Espn80000
    Espn80000
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    Posted: Dec. 15, 2023 - 3:34 AM ET #24

    @steponaduck

     I hate red.

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    @steponaduck

     I hate red.

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