What is the point of making picks if you don't show any analysis?

I mean, a dog can run up to 2 bowls with food in them - one labeled "favorite" and the other labeled "underdog" - and go to one of them first and call it a pick.    Know what I'm sayin?

I used dislike the non dialogue with a persons picks but the heckling afterwards can be a tad bit annoying if one disagrees with the reasoning.

Proven fact that we have people on the forum that give winners without reason. 

A little insight on a decision would be honest though 

Cuz this forum has a bunch of dart throwers 

OP... I agree totally although I'm a culprit myself

You want me to bust my ass and then give you directions Jesus 

I disagree 

what’s the point of a writeup if it loses?  What’s the point of a writeup if you get others coming in to argue your writeup?

Posting picks is way less hassle 

I like reading if others want to post a writeup but I don’t care if they can read stats like anyone else & come up with a word salad justifying their picks 

just show me winners over time & you get my attention , that’s just me 

I do read some of your writeups though & you do a nice job 

I will always post  my play in my play only. you will never see it analyze don’t question me don’t follow me if you don’t like it. Record speak for themselves.

What’s the point of making this thread every year when you get the same answers? 

@WahooS

 Facts 

also with all these long write ups and your pick was so wrong . You will get those haters flooding your thread. As long the   picks are winners  who cares . Who ever posting aren’t throwing a coin flip when they pick a play . There lots reasons and I’m sure they don’t want to write an essay on why. Maybe just ask them afterward and I’m sure they will respond back. 

Probably more to say, but now my head hurts.

thank you for this WRITEUP 

@iamhuge

 Amen

@TRAIN69

 Again I say, amen

Huge your write ups are awesome,very good information-appreciate it

The people that want all these write ups why don’t you do your own homework? Guys that post daily  already put a lot of time into their plays. 

Write-ups take time.  Some people don’t have the time to explain and with enough wagers over a full season or multiple seasons, a person’s record eventually speaks for itself.  Assuming it accurate.  It’s the old you are what you’re record says you are quote.  Good luck / bad luck will even out over time and enough data points.  Anyway, short answer is it takes time.  Personally I’d rather be looking for my next wager rather than explaining myself in great detail on the first wager.  Used to do that more, now I’m just at a time poor phase in my life.

u want ppl to send you the money to bet aswell?

"I have made the national anthem a six point underdog"....... Jimmy the Greek

@iamhuge

 Consistent winning picks with no analysis is always better than a losing pick with analysis.  

Ummm..when some guys hit at 70% with no essay and others hit 30% with the wordyness that would make War and Peace blush. I think you are not understanding that some are betting thousands of dollars and have been betting for decades and others 1 unit is $50 and posting here and getting some type of recognition from complete strangers is just as gratifying as the $45 payout. Being completely honest I can write a 4 paragraph essay on why a team will cash on both teams in a game on every game of the year.

Yes ^^^

The books have to give a line for every game. We don't have to play every game. By just picking which games have value, that is our edge. 

How do we know which games to play?

The main problem I see with analysis is people never compare the analysis to the line / +$ that is asked. I have seen the exact same analysis posted for a team that is -3 and -13. People should be talking about their analysis relative to the points / +$. 

Another thing that drives me crazy is how people ignore turnovers. No one talks about them nearly enough. You absolutely can predict them. No one talks about field position enough. Coaching enough. 

Mostly it's just offense and defense talk. Which is fine. But it has to be relative to the numbers.

You know the Books models create 10,000 hypothetical games and each game is made of hypothetical drives. Then it takes the median game and that is there number (the game that occurs most often). However, the problem the books have is that a score in football is up to 8 points. So a line that is -7 could be correct for 99% of the game and still be wrong on the last play. 

IMHO, this is where the value comes in on Covers. Identify games where the liklihood of the game not being a median game is not priced into the spread / +$. You find a game greater than 50% chance won't hit near ATS number, you are in business. Now it's just a matter of liklihood of which way it goes * the payout and which is higher.

Appreciate reasoning for picks, maybe something I missed in my handicapping. It’s the ones on the forum that just throw out the pics and bill it as a game of the year or game of the decade or mortgage wager without any reasoning makes me wonder

Even with a 20 paragraph summary, they usually don’t come to fruition. How many times have we seen someone spend so much on analysis and they end up being so dead wrong