What I Learned This Season

We still have playoffs which Im looking forward to. I dont bet bowl games at all. 

Biggest thing I learned this year is that the first 2 games and the last 2 games should be extremely limited or no bets. 

I sucked the first 2 weeks and I sucked the last 2 weeks, this week in particular going 0-5 or 0-6, I dont even want to look back and see which it is, but Im positive I didnt win a single bet. 

I just got completely fooled beginning and end of the year here. Mid season I was absolutely on fire. But these last 2 weeks cost me all of my profits from this college football season. All the great calls and +300 and +400 moneyline hits? Like it never happened. 

Im thinking i just wasnt able to get a handle on motivations and who's buying in or not buying in early and late in the season here. 

So that will be a change for next year. Probably need to have 2 games max in the first 2 and last 2 weeks and only if they are super high confidence plays. Will play college as if its an 8 game season next year. Take away those 4 weeks and I absolutely crushed this year. 

What did everybody else learn this year?

I have similar luck at the beginning of almost every season and swear I’m not going to make a bet til October, but alas, I’ve yet to stick to that plan.

From what I can tell from your posts, you are a sharp and analytical bettor. I too tend to bet unders and dogs almost exclusively. The first couple weeks of any sport I've found that favorites and overs tend to win. And about 25-50% of way through the season the analytics catch up and the public gets slaughtered chasing overvalued favorites.

One thing that really helped my handicapping is identifying early on if it's a public or sharp week. Some weeks it's all sharps sides and other weeks it's all public plays. Either play with the trend or get out the way when its one of those weeks where your betting style can't win.

But look on the bright side it's been a great season. I would encourage you to actually bet the bowl games.  Lots of public money.  Sharp sides tend to do very well during playoff season in most sports.  I've made most of my biggest bets and wins in the playoffs across all sports

I have found the first two weeks and especially this past week rivalry week, hit a lot of 1q and 1H unders, and although didn’t play many 2h noticed the total would dip half way thru the 2nd qtr so betting the over full game, during the first half lulls, were successful. Actually did that in the NFL today with success

Figure out who you want to bet on, then do the opposite.  

Yes I have done that before, can definitely be a good angle

Week 1 and 2 unders emphasis on week 1 

week 1 fade teams that were on a covers streak to close the previous season and demolished the bowl game ats line

In 2024 it was Michigan closing out 2024 beat kast 2 games as 14+dogs vs Alabama and Ohio State 

week 1 2025 failed to cover vs. New Mexico.  

Then as we discussed the Sunday night solo game is a strong dog game.  The books need that game because the favorites dominate in week one.  So many bad matchups a lot of favorites either cover or win.  The books need to win that game because the long parlay tickets.  That Sunday game attracts a lot of bettors to the game.  Miami beat Notre Dame. 

The Monday nighter is also highly successful.  The ROI on Sunday dogs is still the best and most successful dog of the week though. 

This season TCU was the favorite over N.Car and the favorite TCU did win big.

season>2015 and week=1 and tpS(W)<3 and H and opS(W)>0 and division

week 1 home teams that failed to win as many as 3 games the previous season. As long as their opponents won at least 1 game the previous season. 

FBS home teams 25-17 ATS 

FCS home teams 20-5 ATS 

Week 3 isn’t much but in week 4 look to fade teams that covered 3 big spreads in a row.  Current week playing a decent team.  Those lines are inflated. 

season>2015 and week=4 and p:line<-14 and ats streak=3 and p:line>-35

week=4 and Favorite has covered 3-0 and line is higher than -14 but not as high as -35 

results for the favorite are 10-25 ATS and in 2025 the favorites were 1-5 ATS 

In most cases, The linesmaker are not letting these killers do it again 4 weeks in a row.  

season>2010 and week=1 and division=FBS and HF and o:division=FBS and total<56

week=1 unders with a total line less than 56 within a FBS both team matchup and the Hone team is a favorite since and after 2010

93-128 42% overs ATS

in 2025 7-16 overs ATS

.==============

season>2010 and week=2 and p:ou margin>0 and HF and p:points<45 and rank=None

week 2 home favorites in an FBS vs FBS matchup in which the home favorite failed to score 45 points the previous week, the home fav is not ranked, their previous game went over the total, since snd after 2010 

home favorites ATS are 27-51 ATS and 34-43 overs/unders  

@spottie2935

" week=4 and Favorite has covered 3-0 and line is higher than -14 but not as high as -35 

results for the favorite are 10-25 ATS and in 2025 the favorites were 1-5 ATS 

In most cases, The linesmaker are not letting these killers do it again 4 weeks in a row.  "

This is where we were really grooving mid season. Just the way my mind works. Dogs in conference play, fading the teams that had been covering up til that point. Next year im gonna really focus on this meat of the season and be more aware of these early season trends you mentioned

If I were you I would go back and tract your plays.  How well did you do in lines close to 0 

Also how good are you at forecasting next weeks line because suspect favorites that will be dogs ahead are bad favorites and good dogs that will be lined at least -4 next week are elite ROI plays as well. 

these are at least 58% during conference play.  

other notes I have if a team is scoring *50+ don’t fade them until they get grounded.  They don’t go from 50 points to 20 points and failure.  It’s gradual like an Utah or North Texas.  

Stay away from these teams and look for the weak team that don’t stand out.  

Possible teams in regression:

ASU 

INDY 

OHIO ST 

NOTRE DAME, It’s just hard fading them because they don’t schedule tough teams.  I think I will be looking to fade them after an ATS failure hope to catch them on a down slide. 

@spottie2935

 Good stuff thank you man. Looking back at my plays where I really excelled is dogs from 0-24.5. On bigger dogs than that only about 50%. And I suck at betting favorites but luckily I dont bet them very often, but still impacted the bottom line.

Also, I didnt bet as many moneylines and alt spreads making a dog a favorite until later in the season and I did extremely well on them, so I should've done it earlier and more of it because I hit a lot of +200 to +400. 

Your note about fading a team scoring a lot is something I need to keep in mind too. I oftentimes will identify something and try to fade a team a week or 2 too early. 

I am very good at forecasting lines. Most of my plays are derived from differences I see in my forecasted lines vs what is booked. Typically for me that will be a line that is inflated on perception or a team that has overperformed and I bet the dog. This is why I was so good in the heart of conference play when dogs were fighting hard. I just need to bear all these things in mind next season. Cut out the bad plays early and late and focus on what im really good at identifying and it will be a monster betting season.

When I search data I try and omit the extremes.  The data in the stats doesn’t like 50 point teams or teams of one 0 scored game.  I does like back to back 0 scoring teams after such back to back games.

Wisconsin in 2025 

Houston in 2024 

Also going off memory I think Akron at the start of 2025 or 2024 started with double 0 point games.  Go look.  

My thoughts are result, okay that one bad game.  Same result next game is confirmation.  After confirming the previous game that’s the regression opportunity. 

Tomorrow Troy has not scored in the first quarter the last 4 games. 

Their last 2 games end of first quarter were 0-0 both.

Their last 2 previous games to those were 0-10 and 0-17 

Betting: 1st Q

Troy +6.5 @ +132 1stQ

Troy / JMad  over 10 @ 1stQ

UNLV:  they tore up COLO ST, Nevada, Hawaii in the second Q, Utah St was 7-7 

UNLV Last 4 games out scored their foes 63-13 in the second Q so I’m betting Boise’s half time line with in the first quarter or at the end of the first Q.  Depends on line and situation. 

These are good matchups and after such consistency I’m expecting reversals and regression.  

See if I’m right. 

Best wishes on yours this week. 

Texas Tech is 18-5 Ats last 23.  BYU appears to be gelling a lot but I’m not convinced A 12 point dog competes with Texas Tech.  I’m waiting for ingame to see or if I don’t see it.  I will be fading Texas Tech in the playoff.  I’d love to see Texas Tech Stomp BYU to create an even bigger line ahead and there’s you big moneyline payday.  You know why week 13 and 24 suck for dogs?  Big paydays can be had in playoffs or selective bowl games.  This is a weaker conference team that elevated within the conference.  Let’s see who they play. 

Well I failed on Troy first Q but caught everything up on a half time multi side and total plays. 

Boise was money too 

lol it’s gambling you I’ll never win long term 

hth

I learned that 18 years after I made my first bet that I still suck and don’t have weekly consistency. 

Good stuff 

gambling is all about figuring Out Which Way, Vegas wants you to bet. Think about it every bet we make is a 50-50 shot. Why is it that we always end up losing 75% all the time I tested it a flip a coin 10×1st time I got five out of 10 second time I got six out of 10/3 time. I got four out of 10 basically almost 50% so why is it when we best sports we don’t win 50% of the time is because we’re betting the way Vegas wants us to if we could just figure out the way Vegas wants us to bet I bet the opposite way we would win, but I have yet to figure that out