What I Learned This Season

We still have playoffs which Im looking forward to. I dont bet bowl games at all. 

Biggest thing I learned this year is that the first 2 games and the last 2 games should be extremely limited or no bets. 

I sucked the first 2 weeks and I sucked the last 2 weeks, this week in particular going 0-5 or 0-6, I dont even want to look back and see which it is, but Im positive I didnt win a single bet. 

I just got completely fooled beginning and end of the year here. Mid season I was absolutely on fire. But these last 2 weeks cost me all of my profits from this college football season. All the great calls and +300 and +400 moneyline hits? Like it never happened. 

Im thinking i just wasnt able to get a handle on motivations and who's buying in or not buying in early and late in the season here. 

So that will be a change for next year. Probably need to have 2 games max in the first 2 and last 2 weeks and only if they are super high confidence plays. Will play college as if its an 8 game season next year. Take away those 4 weeks and I absolutely crushed this year. 

What did everybody else learn this year?

I have similar luck at the beginning of almost every season and swear I’m not going to make a bet til October, but alas, I’ve yet to stick to that plan.

From what I can tell from your posts, you are a sharp and analytical bettor. I too tend to bet unders and dogs almost exclusively. The first couple weeks of any sport I've found that favorites and overs tend to win. And about 25-50% of way through the season the analytics catch up and the public gets slaughtered chasing overvalued favorites.

One thing that really helped my handicapping is identifying early on if it's a public or sharp week. Some weeks it's all sharps sides and other weeks it's all public plays. Either play with the trend or get out the way when its one of those weeks where your betting style can't win.

But look on the bright side it's been a great season. I would encourage you to actually bet the bowl games.  Lots of public money.  Sharp sides tend to do very well during playoff season in most sports.  I've made most of my biggest bets and wins in the playoffs across all sports

I have found the first two weeks and especially this past week rivalry week, hit a lot of 1q and 1H unders, and although didn’t play many 2h noticed the total would dip half way thru the 2nd qtr so betting the over full game, during the first half lulls, were successful. Actually did that in the NFL today with success

Figure out who you want to bet on, then do the opposite.