Always love your write ups and picks and feel you are one of the very best out there but I'm all over Texas this week. Mizzou is an overrated sieve and Texas should easily pound them by double digits going away. Just my 2 cents.
you could be right, as i believed that texas was underrated up until their last game. i faded mizzou once, against nevada and i was wrong. i was on texas last week but this week i will go against them as i believe that they are in a letdown spot. gl to you though.
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Quote Originally Posted by MiamiMitch:
Always love your write ups and picks and feel you are one of the very best out there but I'm all over Texas this week. Mizzou is an overrated sieve and Texas should easily pound them by double digits going away. Just my 2 cents.
you could be right, as i believed that texas was underrated up until their last game. i faded mizzou once, against nevada and i was wrong. i was on texas last week but this week i will go against them as i believe that they are in a letdown spot. gl to you though.
I only disagree with Purdue/Northwestern...Purdue has played the tougher schedule, but has not impressed at all on the road. And I would not say Mich St exposed N'western as the Wildcats outgained the both rushing and passing, T.O.P was just about even. 3 costly turnovers made the score more lopsided than it should have been.
GL this week
i believe that purdue would beat nw on neutral field but i'm not playing them on the road. it is just a lean for me, so gl with your northwestern bet. hope you win.
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Quote Originally Posted by inFAMOUS-STYLE:
Great insight
I only disagree with Purdue/Northwestern...Purdue has played the tougher schedule, but has not impressed at all on the road. And I would not say Mich St exposed N'western as the Wildcats outgained the both rushing and passing, T.O.P was just about even. 3 costly turnovers made the score more lopsided than it should have been.
GL this week
i believe that purdue would beat nw on neutral field but i'm not playing them on the road. it is just a lean for me, so gl with your northwestern bet. hope you win.
Really helpful write-up's ...thanks.. Agree with OL'Miss as a very LIVE Dog...As far as MAC Plays...look @ W.Michigan vs. C. Michigan...Like WMU and the OVER....Weather Permit.
W365...Nice Work..BOL
wmu could be my lean or even a play., we shall see. good luk this week buddy.
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Quote Originally Posted by KnockDown9:
Really helpful write-up's ...thanks.. Agree with OL'Miss as a very LIVE Dog...As far as MAC Plays...look @ W.Michigan vs. C. Michigan...Like WMU and the OVER....Weather Permit.
W365...Nice Work..BOL
wmu could be my lean or even a play., we shall see. good luk this week buddy.
I have North Carolina ranked some 36 places better than Virginia, and ranked teams, playing unranked teams, rated 10-80 places better on the road are 5-10 ATS if not favored by more than 14. Very rarely these teams are favored by less than a TD. So far this season we had 3 teams in this situation and all three lost against the spread. Fresno went to OT against Toledo, Vanderbilt lost outright to Mississippi State last week and Wisconsin lost at Michigan.
North Carolina was definately on their emotional high last week and they could find it difficult to get at that energy level again this week after riding the emotions for three straight weeks. First they went to Miami with their backup QB, and got the outright win as the 7 pts underdogs. Then they beat then ranked UConn at home as 8 pts favorites, and finally last week they hosted Notre Dame, a team that would probably be ranked this week had they won @ UNC last week. UNC won that game as well, but it wasn't easy and the energy they spent on the field was huge.They trailed 7-0, 10-3, 17-6 and 24-18. They finally took the lead for good in the fourth quarter but stil failed to cover the spread for their backers.
They have a good team, but I stil believe that all the hype around this team is not justified. People talk about their defense like they are the world beaters or something. They are good at creating turnovers but they stil allow big chunks of yards to their opponents game after game after game. I agree that Virginia's three wins came against not so good teams, but who did the Tar Heels beat ? The overrated Notre Dame, UConn, Miami, the 1-5 Rutgers and div.I-AA McNesse State ? Sorry but I don't see any good team on that list. What is more important to me here, is how did they beat those teams, assuming that they have beaten some very bad and overrated teams.
Virginia destroyed ECU, Maryland and Richmond with the combined score of 82-20, outgaining every team by at least 100 total yards. They outpassed all of their opponents ytd except USC. In last two weeks they rushed for 202 (6.1 ypc) and 207 yards (4.9 ypc). At the same time they allowed 78 and 89 rushing yards. After two straight home upset wins, they should remain pumped up as they now host a ranked team and they are home dogs with no respect once again.
As for UNC, they were outgained in all of their three wins vs ND, Mia and UConn, and that number got worst from game to game, as they were outgained by 10 against Miami, by 115 against UConn and by 150 against Notre Dame. You just can't keep winning forever with such bad numbers.
After playing three teams with a winning record, they now have to keep their motivation up against a 3-3 team, before playing BC, Georgia Tech, Maryland in the next three games. Not gonna happen.
Keep in mind that being a road fave is the unknown territory for this team. Not same beating Miami and Rutgers as road dogs and winning and covering on the road while being favored in a road game for the first time in ages.
system of the week II: in games 3-9 play on home dogs getting 2.5-7.5 points after a home dog win, against teams that played at home in their previous game and did not lose by double digits. 30-3-1 ats in last 34.
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UNC -5 @ Virginia Play: Virginia +5
I have North Carolina ranked some 36 places better than Virginia, and ranked teams, playing unranked teams, rated 10-80 places better on the road are 5-10 ATS if not favored by more than 14. Very rarely these teams are favored by less than a TD. So far this season we had 3 teams in this situation and all three lost against the spread. Fresno went to OT against Toledo, Vanderbilt lost outright to Mississippi State last week and Wisconsin lost at Michigan.
North Carolina was definately on their emotional high last week and they could find it difficult to get at that energy level again this week after riding the emotions for three straight weeks. First they went to Miami with their backup QB, and got the outright win as the 7 pts underdogs. Then they beat then ranked UConn at home as 8 pts favorites, and finally last week they hosted Notre Dame, a team that would probably be ranked this week had they won @ UNC last week. UNC won that game as well, but it wasn't easy and the energy they spent on the field was huge.They trailed 7-0, 10-3, 17-6 and 24-18. They finally took the lead for good in the fourth quarter but stil failed to cover the spread for their backers.
They have a good team, but I stil believe that all the hype around this team is not justified. People talk about their defense like they are the world beaters or something. They are good at creating turnovers but they stil allow big chunks of yards to their opponents game after game after game. I agree that Virginia's three wins came against not so good teams, but who did the Tar Heels beat ? The overrated Notre Dame, UConn, Miami, the 1-5 Rutgers and div.I-AA McNesse State ? Sorry but I don't see any good team on that list. What is more important to me here, is how did they beat those teams, assuming that they have beaten some very bad and overrated teams.
Virginia destroyed ECU, Maryland and Richmond with the combined score of 82-20, outgaining every team by at least 100 total yards. They outpassed all of their opponents ytd except USC. In last two weeks they rushed for 202 (6.1 ypc) and 207 yards (4.9 ypc). At the same time they allowed 78 and 89 rushing yards. After two straight home upset wins, they should remain pumped up as they now host a ranked team and they are home dogs with no respect once again.
As for UNC, they were outgained in all of their three wins vs ND, Mia and UConn, and that number got worst from game to game, as they were outgained by 10 against Miami, by 115 against UConn and by 150 against Notre Dame. You just can't keep winning forever with such bad numbers.
After playing three teams with a winning record, they now have to keep their motivation up against a 3-3 team, before playing BC, Georgia Tech, Maryland in the next three games. Not gonna happen.
Keep in mind that being a road fave is the unknown territory for this team. Not same beating Miami and Rutgers as road dogs and winning and covering on the road while being favored in a road game for the first time in ages.
system of the week II: in games 3-9 play on home dogs getting 2.5-7.5 points after a home dog win, against teams that played at home in their previous game and did not lose by double digits. 30-3-1 ats in last 34.
road teams ranked 1-31 places better, favored by 3 or less or underdogs of 4.5 or less are 22-5 ats ytd. breaking down this group of teams i discovered that favorites or underdogs of not more than 1 pt are 13-0 ats, underdogs of 3-4.5 pts are 5-0 ats and underdogs of 1.5-2.5 pts are only 5-5. A total of 10 teams fit this system this week. One of them is San Jose State as -2 favorite at New Mexico State.
San Jose State -2 @ New Mexico State Lean (No Play): San Jose State moneyline (-130)
Here is a classic matchup of a team that has a very good defense and an opportunistic offense that will not score much but will score when needed, against a great offensive team (but one-dimensional) with no defense whatsoever.
San Jose State is really flying under the radar in the WAC right now. The only reason why this is not an official play for me is SJS hosting Boise next week. They are in a lookahead spot here but I stil believe that they can handle NMSU. They have a great defense ranked #5 in the nation in the pass efficiency defense, #8 in takeaways, #13 in total defense, #7 in sacks, #5 in first downs defense#18 in third down defense and so on. They are also #11 in the nation in the turnover ratio, they are 4-1 ats this season, 7-1 ats in last 8 and they won and covered last 4 vs new mexico state.
New Mexico State can't run, can't defend, and their only weapon is C.Holbrook and the air attack. It is a good one, but a good defense (especially a good passing defense) should have no trouble stoping them. They played at Nevada last week, got the upset win as the 21 pts underdogs in a game that featured 4 ties and 7 lead changes. There was no defense in that game that ended 48-45. Nevada rushed 42 times against NMSU for 313 yards (7.5 ypc) and NMSU defense will have hard time recovering in time for their game against SJSU.
teams with the line in the +19.5/-7 range, are 17-44 ATS after a road game in which they did not lose by more than 5 despite allowing 25+ points as 17+ pts underdogs. and if they won that game, they are 2-18 ats in the following game
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road teams ranked 1-31 places better, favored by 3 or less or underdogs of 4.5 or less are 22-5 ats ytd. breaking down this group of teams i discovered that favorites or underdogs of not more than 1 pt are 13-0 ats, underdogs of 3-4.5 pts are 5-0 ats and underdogs of 1.5-2.5 pts are only 5-5. A total of 10 teams fit this system this week. One of them is San Jose State as -2 favorite at New Mexico State.
San Jose State -2 @ New Mexico State Lean (No Play): San Jose State moneyline (-130)
Here is a classic matchup of a team that has a very good defense and an opportunistic offense that will not score much but will score when needed, against a great offensive team (but one-dimensional) with no defense whatsoever.
San Jose State is really flying under the radar in the WAC right now. The only reason why this is not an official play for me is SJS hosting Boise next week. They are in a lookahead spot here but I stil believe that they can handle NMSU. They have a great defense ranked #5 in the nation in the pass efficiency defense, #8 in takeaways, #13 in total defense, #7 in sacks, #5 in first downs defense#18 in third down defense and so on. They are also #11 in the nation in the turnover ratio, they are 4-1 ats this season, 7-1 ats in last 8 and they won and covered last 4 vs new mexico state.
New Mexico State can't run, can't defend, and their only weapon is C.Holbrook and the air attack. It is a good one, but a good defense (especially a good passing defense) should have no trouble stoping them. They played at Nevada last week, got the upset win as the 21 pts underdogs in a game that featured 4 ties and 7 lead changes. There was no defense in that game that ended 48-45. Nevada rushed 42 times against NMSU for 313 yards (7.5 ypc) and NMSU defense will have hard time recovering in time for their game against SJSU.
teams with the line in the +19.5/-7 range, are 17-44 ATS after a road game in which they did not lose by more than 5 despite allowing 25+ points as 17+ pts underdogs. and if they won that game, they are 2-18 ats in the following game
Texas knows what's at stake here. It is a letdown spot, but I think at home they will rally to win by 10 again. my two cents. (A loss would make good drama.)
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Cheers to you for your awesome work.
Texas knows what's at stake here. It is a letdown spot, but I think at home they will rally to win by 10 again. my two cents. (A loss would make good drama.)
road teams ranked 1-31 places better, favored by 3 or less or underdogs of 4.5 or less are 22-5 ats ytd. breaking down this group of teams i discovered that favorites or underdogs of not more than 1 pt are 13-0 ats, underdogs of 3-4.5 pts are 5-0 ats and underdogs of 1.5-2.5 pts are only 5-5. A total of 10 teams fit this system this week. One of them is San Jose State as -2 favorite at New Mexico State.
San Jose State -2 @ New Mexico State Lean (No Play): San Jose State moneyline (-130)
Here is a classic matchup of a team that has a very good defense and an opportunistic offense that will not score much but will score when needed, against a great offensive team (but one-dimensional) with no defense whatsoever.
San Jose State is really flying under the radar in the WAC right now. The only reason why this is not an official play for me is SJS hosting Boise next week. They are in a lookahead spot here but I stil believe that they can handle NMSU. They have a great defense ranked #5 in the nation in the pass efficiency defense, #8 in takeaways, #13 in total defense, #7 in sacks, #5 in first downs defense#18 in third down defense and so on. They are also #11 in the nation in the turnover ratio, they are 4-1 ats this season, 7-1 ats in last 8 and they won and covered last 4 vs new mexico state.
New Mexico State can't run, can't defend, and their only weapon is C.Holbrook and the air attack. It is a good one, but a good defense (especially a good passing defense) should have no trouble stoping them. They played at Nevada last week, got the upset win as the 21 pts underdogs in a game that featured 4 ties and 7 lead changes. There was no defense in that game that ended 48-45. Nevada rushed 42 times against NMSU for 313 yards (7.5 ypc) and NMSU defense will have hard time recovering in time for their game against SJSU.
teams with the line in the +19.5/-7 range, are 17-44 ATS after a road game in which they did not lose by more than 5 despite allowing 25+ points as 17+ pts underdogs. and if they won that game, they are 2-18 ats in the following game
btw other than sjsu, the following teams fit the same system: pitts, byu, ohio state, lsu, v.tech, arkansas state, wmu, cal and stanf.
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Quote Originally Posted by w365:
road teams ranked 1-31 places better, favored by 3 or less or underdogs of 4.5 or less are 22-5 ats ytd. breaking down this group of teams i discovered that favorites or underdogs of not more than 1 pt are 13-0 ats, underdogs of 3-4.5 pts are 5-0 ats and underdogs of 1.5-2.5 pts are only 5-5. A total of 10 teams fit this system this week. One of them is San Jose State as -2 favorite at New Mexico State.
San Jose State -2 @ New Mexico State Lean (No Play): San Jose State moneyline (-130)
Here is a classic matchup of a team that has a very good defense and an opportunistic offense that will not score much but will score when needed, against a great offensive team (but one-dimensional) with no defense whatsoever.
San Jose State is really flying under the radar in the WAC right now. The only reason why this is not an official play for me is SJS hosting Boise next week. They are in a lookahead spot here but I stil believe that they can handle NMSU. They have a great defense ranked #5 in the nation in the pass efficiency defense, #8 in takeaways, #13 in total defense, #7 in sacks, #5 in first downs defense#18 in third down defense and so on. They are also #11 in the nation in the turnover ratio, they are 4-1 ats this season, 7-1 ats in last 8 and they won and covered last 4 vs new mexico state.
New Mexico State can't run, can't defend, and their only weapon is C.Holbrook and the air attack. It is a good one, but a good defense (especially a good passing defense) should have no trouble stoping them. They played at Nevada last week, got the upset win as the 21 pts underdogs in a game that featured 4 ties and 7 lead changes. There was no defense in that game that ended 48-45. Nevada rushed 42 times against NMSU for 313 yards (7.5 ypc) and NMSU defense will have hard time recovering in time for their game against SJSU.
teams with the line in the +19.5/-7 range, are 17-44 ATS after a road game in which they did not lose by more than 5 despite allowing 25+ points as 17+ pts underdogs. and if they won that game, they are 2-18 ats in the following game
btw other than sjsu, the following teams fit the same system: pitts, byu, ohio state, lsu, v.tech, arkansas state, wmu, cal and stanf.
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Agree with OL'Miss as a very LIVE Dog...As far as MAC Plays...look @ W.Michigan vs. C. Michigan...Like WMU and the OVER....Weather Permit.
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