Nice analysis on the Texas game. I went ahead and got on the Mizz moneyline at +210. Mizzou cannot afford to lose back to back games and I just think Texas used up too much energy last week and will have a hard time playing with that much intensity and focus two weeks in a row. We all know Mizz can play with just about anyone in the country and I don't see them having a letdown like last week. Plus there is always less pressure when you're the underdog as you're not expected to win.
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Nice analysis on the Texas game. I went ahead and got on the Mizz moneyline at +210. Mizzou cannot afford to lose back to back games and I just think Texas used up too much energy last week and will have a hard time playing with that much intensity and focus two weeks in a row. We all know Mizz can play with just about anyone in the country and I don't see them having a letdown like last week. Plus there is always less pressure when you're the underdog as you're not expected to win.
home teams ranked 28-47 places better and favored by 10.5-21 pts are 4-16-1 ats ytd. several teams are in this group this week (alabama, louisville, illinois, louisiana monroe) but there is only one that is worth fading imo and it is alabama.
Ole Miss @ Alabama -13
Play: Ole Miss +13
the teams in that 4-16-1 ats group that are favored by less than 14 are 1-9 ats. and with alabama being #2 in the nation, they should be favored by a lot more than 13 against a 3-3 team.
ole miss played much better in the underdog role this season, going 1-1 su and 2-0 ats on the road against nationally ranked teams and only 2-2 su and 1-2 ats as favorites. alabama's best two games came against then highely ranked clemson and georgia. they looked as a different team against tulane and kentucky. ole miss covered the spread as underdog in three straight against alabama and lost all three games by 3 pts, once in overtime. they were underdogs of a TD or more in every game.
Just like Alabama, they've outrushed every opponent ytd and they have been less impressive in their passing game. However, I stil feel that Ole Miss has the passing edge in this game and Alabama the rushing edge.
Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS in last 5 and 12-5 ATS in last 12 as underdog and Alabama is 3-8 ATS in last 11 as favorite. Alabama is also 3-10-1 ats in last 14 as home favorite vs opponents with less wins (0-7-1 ats in the SEC).
If Alabama overlooks this Mississippi team the way Florida did earlier this season, they might lose outright. And if they consider LSU to be their first really dangerous opponent, they will be beaten by one of the next three opponents (Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas State-probably not). This is a dangerous game for Alabama comming off of their bye week.
the unbeaten teams favored by 13-16.5 pts at home are 3-12 ats with 6 wins and 9-17 ats with 5 wins.
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home teams ranked 28-47 places better and favored by 10.5-21 pts are 4-16-1 ats ytd. several teams are in this group this week (alabama, louisville, illinois, louisiana monroe) but there is only one that is worth fading imo and it is alabama.
Ole Miss @ Alabama -13
Play: Ole Miss +13
the teams in that 4-16-1 ats group that are favored by less than 14 are 1-9 ats. and with alabama being #2 in the nation, they should be favored by a lot more than 13 against a 3-3 team.
ole miss played much better in the underdog role this season, going 1-1 su and 2-0 ats on the road against nationally ranked teams and only 2-2 su and 1-2 ats as favorites. alabama's best two games came against then highely ranked clemson and georgia. they looked as a different team against tulane and kentucky. ole miss covered the spread as underdog in three straight against alabama and lost all three games by 3 pts, once in overtime. they were underdogs of a TD or more in every game.
Just like Alabama, they've outrushed every opponent ytd and they have been less impressive in their passing game. However, I stil feel that Ole Miss has the passing edge in this game and Alabama the rushing edge.
Ole Miss is 5-0 ATS in last 5 and 12-5 ATS in last 12 as underdog and Alabama is 3-8 ATS in last 11 as favorite. Alabama is also 3-10-1 ats in last 14 as home favorite vs opponents with less wins (0-7-1 ats in the SEC).
If Alabama overlooks this Mississippi team the way Florida did earlier this season, they might lose outright. And if they consider LSU to be their first really dangerous opponent, they will be beaten by one of the next three opponents (Ole Miss, Tennessee and Arkansas State-probably not). This is a dangerous game for Alabama comming off of their bye week.
the unbeaten teams favored by 13-16.5 pts at home are 3-12 ats with 6 wins and 9-17 ats with 5 wins.
Great stuff.. Keep up the good work!! Have any thoughts on the USF game?? On paper it looks like a great game for USF-23.5.. Extra week to prepare.. SU consecutive road games traveling to FL after a cover against West Va..
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Great stuff.. Keep up the good work!! Have any thoughts on the USF game?? On paper it looks like a great game for USF-23.5.. Extra week to prepare.. SU consecutive road games traveling to FL after a cover against West Va..
Great stuff.. Keep up the good work!! Have any thoughts on the USF game?? On paper it looks like a great game for USF-23.5.. Extra week to prepare.. SU consecutive road games traveling to FL after a cover against West Va..
very sharp line. having said that south florida should cover.
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Quote Originally Posted by wannawinalot:
Great stuff.. Keep up the good work!! Have any thoughts on the USF game?? On paper it looks like a great game for USF-23.5.. Extra week to prepare.. SU consecutive road games traveling to FL after a cover against West Va..
very sharp line. having said that south florida should cover.
I enjoy capping. I wish I had the time to be as thorough on as many games as you w365. Your work is impeccable. Kudos!
i'm self emplyed, working from home...have a lot of time when my wife and kids are not around. sports betting has been a huge additional income for me in recent years especially in football and basketball....gl man
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Quote Originally Posted by Sutty:
I enjoy capping. I wish I had the time to be as thorough on as many games as you w365. Your work is impeccable. Kudos!
i'm self emplyed, working from home...have a lot of time when my wife and kids are not around. sports betting has been a huge additional income for me in recent years especially in football and basketball....gl man
Thanks for your research . My college skills are not what they should be . I usually only touch the pros , but I took some of your picks last week and I was successful . Thanks again bro .
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Thanks for your research . My college skills are not what they should be . I usually only touch the pros , but I took some of your picks last week and I was successful . Thanks again bro .
road teams ranked 43-80 places better and favored by a TD or less are 0-8 ats if at least 62% of public bets are on them. several teams are in this category in week 8. nebraska (as long as they are favored by 7 or less - wouldn't surprise me to see them go up to -7.5 or -8), wake, marshall, akron and uconn.
Akron -3.5 @ EMU
Play: EMU +3.5
*This line could rise up to +4*
Probably one of the fishiest two lines on the board this week. 3-4 Akron (4-3 ATS) is favored by only 3.5 at 2-5 Eastern Michigan (1-5 ATS) that lost to Army last week. The betting world is reacting accordingly, as they are simply pounding Akron in this one.
Akron was already in this situation two weeks back when they were favored by 3.5 at Kent. They failed to cover that spread.
I'm not so sure that this game will be easy for Akron. First of all, this is their 8 straight game that involved travelling since week 1, without any bye weeks yet. In last three weeks they were involved in three extremely tight games. First they lost by 2 to a fellow Ohio team (Cincinnati) as 12 pts underdogs after leading with just under 8 minutes left in that very physicall game. Then they went to Kent State (another rivalery game), trailed almost wire to wire, only to take the lead with a couple of minutes left in the game, and lose that lead in the final seconds of the game. The game went in overtime and Akron won by 3. And finally last week, they hosted Bowling Green, led by double digits in three different occasions, 14-0, 21-7 and 27-14, only to collapse in the fourth quarter when they were outscored 23-6. They lost the game 37:33. They were outgained in all of their last three games and with their defense ranked #97 in total yards and #111 in rushing yards, they should not be favored on the road against anyone.
EMU lost their starting QB a few weeks back and stil won at Bowling Green as 19 pts underdogs with the new QB. Last week was a natural letdown for them when they faced Army and lost. Even in that loss, their new QB Schmitt played well (21/29 for 253 yds and TD) and they outrushed Army 147:94. Don't forget that this Akron team also struggled against Army, earlier this season when they were in top form and Army looked like the worst team in football. Akron ended up winning and covering the spread but the game was very close for three quarters, and Army outrushed Akron by a few yards.
These two teams did not meet since 2003 and the series was dominated by the home team from 1996 to 2003 (home team went 7-0 SU and the underdog went 5-0 ats in last 5).
As I said last week, I will not stop fading MAC East teams against MAC West teams until they prove that they can win. So far this season, MAC East teams are winless against MAC West teams (0-10 straight up).
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road teams ranked 43-80 places better and favored by a TD or less are 0-8 ats if at least 62% of public bets are on them. several teams are in this category in week 8. nebraska (as long as they are favored by 7 or less - wouldn't surprise me to see them go up to -7.5 or -8), wake, marshall, akron and uconn.
Akron -3.5 @ EMU
Play: EMU +3.5
*This line could rise up to +4*
Probably one of the fishiest two lines on the board this week. 3-4 Akron (4-3 ATS) is favored by only 3.5 at 2-5 Eastern Michigan (1-5 ATS) that lost to Army last week. The betting world is reacting accordingly, as they are simply pounding Akron in this one.
Akron was already in this situation two weeks back when they were favored by 3.5 at Kent. They failed to cover that spread.
I'm not so sure that this game will be easy for Akron. First of all, this is their 8 straight game that involved travelling since week 1, without any bye weeks yet. In last three weeks they were involved in three extremely tight games. First they lost by 2 to a fellow Ohio team (Cincinnati) as 12 pts underdogs after leading with just under 8 minutes left in that very physicall game. Then they went to Kent State (another rivalery game), trailed almost wire to wire, only to take the lead with a couple of minutes left in the game, and lose that lead in the final seconds of the game. The game went in overtime and Akron won by 3. And finally last week, they hosted Bowling Green, led by double digits in three different occasions, 14-0, 21-7 and 27-14, only to collapse in the fourth quarter when they were outscored 23-6. They lost the game 37:33. They were outgained in all of their last three games and with their defense ranked #97 in total yards and #111 in rushing yards, they should not be favored on the road against anyone.
EMU lost their starting QB a few weeks back and stil won at Bowling Green as 19 pts underdogs with the new QB. Last week was a natural letdown for them when they faced Army and lost. Even in that loss, their new QB Schmitt played well (21/29 for 253 yds and TD) and they outrushed Army 147:94. Don't forget that this Akron team also struggled against Army, earlier this season when they were in top form and Army looked like the worst team in football. Akron ended up winning and covering the spread but the game was very close for three quarters, and Army outrushed Akron by a few yards.
These two teams did not meet since 2003 and the series was dominated by the home team from 1996 to 2003 (home team went 7-0 SU and the underdog went 5-0 ats in last 5).
As I said last week, I will not stop fading MAC East teams against MAC West teams until they prove that they can win. So far this season, MAC East teams are winless against MAC West teams (0-10 straight up).
Thanks for your research . My college skills are not what they should be . I usually only touch the pros , but I took some of your picks last week and I was successful . Thanks again bro .
you are welcome bro.
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Quote Originally Posted by bigop:
Thanks for your research . My college skills are not what they should be . I usually only touch the pros , but I took some of your picks last week and I was successful . Thanks again bro .
Always love your write ups and picks and feel you are one of the very best out there but I'm all over Texas this week. Mizzou is an overrated sieve and Texas should easily pound them by double digits going away. Just my 2 cents.
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Always love your write ups and picks and feel you are one of the very best out there but I'm all over Texas this week. Mizzou is an overrated sieve and Texas should easily pound them by double digits going away. Just my 2 cents.
I only disagree with Purdue/Northwestern...Purdue has played the tougher schedule, but has not impressed at all on the road. And I would not say Mich St exposed N'western as the Wildcats outgained the both rushing and passing, T.O.P was just about even. 3 costly turnovers made the score more lopsided than it should have been.
GL this week
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Great insight
I only disagree with Purdue/Northwestern...Purdue has played the tougher schedule, but has not impressed at all on the road. And I would not say Mich St exposed N'western as the Wildcats outgained the both rushing and passing, T.O.P was just about even. 3 costly turnovers made the score more lopsided than it should have been.
Really helpful write-up's ...thanks.. Agree with OL'Miss as a very LIVE Dog...As far as MAC Plays...look @ W.Michigan vs. C. Michigan...Like WMU and the OVER....Weather Permit.
W365...Nice Work..BOL
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Really helpful write-up's ...thanks.. Agree with OL'Miss as a very LIVE Dog...As far as MAC Plays...look @ W.Michigan vs. C. Michigan...Like WMU and the OVER....Weather Permit.
I was a big admirer of UConn football earlier this season and I believe I stoped betting on them in time, just after I got the win in their game vs Louisville. In their very next game, against UNC I advised people that they either stay away or go with UNC. UNC won that game big. I stil admire these guy's ability to win, and to cover, but with their QB situation and fading defense (allowed a total of 22 pts in their first three games and 87 points in the following three games), I think they've lost their mojo and the books are finally catching up with this team.
They are comming off of a bye week and that's great, but I believe that Rutgers will be in this game from start to finish. It is a real rivalery game and the only reason that keeps me from making Rutgers an official play is the scheduling. Uconn is well rested and Rutgers played @ Cincinnati and @ WVA in last two weeks.
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UCONN -1.5 @ Rutgers Lean (No Play): Rutgers +1.5
I was a big admirer of UConn football earlier this season and I believe I stoped betting on them in time, just after I got the win in their game vs Louisville. In their very next game, against UNC I advised people that they either stay away or go with UNC. UNC won that game big. I stil admire these guy's ability to win, and to cover, but with their QB situation and fading defense (allowed a total of 22 pts in their first three games and 87 points in the following three games), I think they've lost their mojo and the books are finally catching up with this team.
They are comming off of a bye week and that's great, but I believe that Rutgers will be in this game from start to finish. It is a real rivalery game and the only reason that keeps me from making Rutgers an official play is the scheduling. Uconn is well rested and Rutgers played @ Cincinnati and @ WVA in last two weeks.
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Agree with OL'Miss as a very LIVE Dog...As far as MAC Plays...look @ W.Michigan vs. C. Michigan...Like WMU and the OVER....Weather Permit.
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