Week 8 Lines Discussion

@spottie2935

 Trust me, Marshall is not the side I would play. It's a line read. I would suspect that the majority of the bets will be on Marshall the way they're being offered on a silver platter. 

I trust you now.  I obviously missed your point.  

TULSA +16.5 - ECU is a good team, but they are off a tough road loss at Tulane and Tulsa coming off extended rest after getting boatraced at Memphis. This is just a lot of points.

This is by far the best Defense Tulsa has faced all year; Tulsa Offense is closer to Coastal Carolina to anyone on East Carolinas schedule, who E Carolina beat 38-0 on road.

East Carolina will be ready to play, i see a score of:31-7

well 1st off i did not consider fla st losing a close game, yes they came back, but down 28-3 they were dominated, and then Miami went into a diff style of game where they decided to not try and score but to run clock off by running the ball up the middle and fla st knew they were going to run the ball so it made it easier , i hate when teams do that, Miami should have stayed like they were, they could have scored again for sure, 

also Marshall is improving, never should have taken ODU last saturday, as Marshall has beaten them 8 str times, and Marshall's offense is roaring, i did a write up already on this game,and have no choice yet ,  staying with popular teams is not something i like to do, sharper lines are always on popular teams playing each other.....you remind me of me 10 years ago putting out long write ups about games, hell wait till college ball gets here, ..lol  i have had 7 winning weeks in college, i hate the NFL, got beat up yesterday but just a few under .500 there, but getting 60% in college and with a lot of games played 124 played, and no matter what anyone says it is much harder to have a good % with more games played 

one game i bet already with write up is TROY-5  just look into it,  Troy on 3 game winning streak, 2 of which they were big dogs winning at Texas st and at Buffalo, and ULM has lost 2 str to weak teams , and a bit of revenge here also from last year , seems they feel good on the road so far  its my only play  i try to give write ups , my early plays always seem to do well, last week i had Maryland, temple, BG, Indiana , and wrote about E.Mich  but bet them saturday when the line went against me  

i do enjoy write ups by people, and its good to always want feedback, thats what forums are for, not putting someone down, its usually those that never post a play that like to do that....  always best to look into games without already liking a team, i think looking into games that you may never have even thought about looking into can be the best way to handicap, sometimes liking a team or a total then looking at it we tend to side with what we 1st liked 

continued success my friend  

gl 151

Sounds reasonable 

@RUM151

 Thank you my friend. Youre right, Miami game wasnt really decently close as I said. I was on Maryland last week too and the week before that. 

What is interesting about Maryland is that they've covered as a dog in back to back weeks but lost both games. I would be interested to know historically how teams perform after covering and losing in back to back weeks as a dog. I really dont look into stuff like that in my handicapping as far as trends, but for that one in particular I could see maybe there being something of value. 

tennessee is not off a bye

@Yanasaur per your Maryland situational request below and I will explain. 

 p:HD and pp:HD and AD and p:ATSW and pp:ATSW and season>2006

lower case p means previous game 

capital HD means home dog 

AD means Away Dog 

p:ATS W means previous game was an ATS win

pp:ATS W is 2 games ago ATS WIN 

This data is after the 2006 season. 

Maryland qualifies in this data scenario this week. 
Past teams in this scenario are :  

37-57 ATS and 13-84 SU moneyline. 

Now I can add many more filters to this scenario.  This is super basic and very informative. 

I can add filters to this but the theme is bad situation for teams that cover and don’t win

bad situation for consecutive home dog teams now away dogs 

home dog teams are not of value in the following weeks 

These home dogs would need a favorite game on deck to support the current game spread. 

Maryland has Indiana on deck, that line will of course be substantial.  Add all this up and there is no support in their lines to suggest a play on Maryland. 

One thing to consider is what situation UCKA is in because they have been volatile.  If the YCLA past success shows also UCLA weakness this game therefore is a pass and both teams show regression after the recent ATS success. 

If a bettor sees value in Maryland I would recommend a moneyline play and omit the spread. Most often 3 covers in row don’t happen for a tame when all 3 spreads are less than+7 and all 3 game would be covers and all if the 3 covers would be SU losses. 

Maryland Money line is weaker  or better yet, UCLA lay the points, Is what the data supports. 

I agree good eye, your sharp.  Thanks for sharing 

p:HD and pp:HD and AD and p:ATSW and pp:ATSW and season>2006 and o:rank=None and n:line>13 and n:line<30

previous hone dog

previous previous game home dog

this is away dog 

2 covers in a row 

this opponent is not ranked (UCLA)

Maryland (this weeks dog) next game will be lined>13 points but not as many as 30 points against next weeks opponent Indiana.  This Maryland scenario is 2-13 ATS so not that many results but the results that show are very consistently poor. 

This one gets more specific from the other “general” data query from my previous post. 

The data supports a nice play ON:UCLA this week. 

The data is searched only deals with Narylands situation though. I did not dig into what UCLA’s historical volatility. 

@Yanasaur

USC is now +9.5?

Haven’t looked into this game yet but seems almost too good to be true. I usually pass on these games now but feels a bit much.

I expect a high scoring affair maybe a shoot out.

@Yanasaur

 Acc games. Like smu plus 10.5 v Clemson? Can smu tame the Tigers?

@spottie2935

 Thank you my friend, my suspicion was correct then. I was indeed thinking that UCLA would be the play. A fade of Maryland, and I actually like what UCLA is doing. 

I was on them this past week and not fading them off the big win because they were still undervalued in my opinion. They were never as bad as their early season performance. The talent was always there. It wasnt a typical dog getting lucky or playing way above their heads in their superbowl for that season. 

I am going to make UCLA a play, but my book has 3.5 right now so ill wait on that

I was on USC big against Mich, but ND seems to have really hit their stride and I dont think I want to step in front of them. I just dont like this spot for USC at all going on the road. They won that Michigan game comfortably but watching it they missed a lot of opportunities. Against a team like ND with a much better offense that may kill them

This was a game that caught my eye but I honestly dont have a strong opinion. SMU really hasnt impressed me. Not that Clemson has either, but I can absolutely see SMU getting blown out in this game more easily than I can see them winning. 

Good call yes, it was the week before they had their bye.