Week 7 - Less is More

I increased the ATS/Total Plays > reduced the success

Then, decreased the fun Teasers plays > increased the success as a result.

4 - 4 ATS/Totals for Week 6 (- 2 Units lost) >> SEASON now 15 - 12 - 1  ATS (+6 Units)

Teasers/Parlays = -1 U lost >>> still a losing proposition (fun trying)

BIG GAMES THIS WEEK FOR TOP 20 POSITIONING:

1. OREGON @  WASHINGTON >> winner potentially could end up as a PLAYOFF TEAM  IF they go undefeated

2. TEXAS AM @ TENNESSEE >>  Vols have the IRISH - type schedule coming up of 3 tough road games after this, followed by Georgia at home.....if by some miracle, they get to that game 3-0 on their roadies, they are in a spot to potentially be in SEC title game if they beat GEORGIA.....yes, I am dreaming but its till possible

3. USC @ NOTRE DAME  >> can either of these teams win this game with authority to gain some much needed respect? USC has a daunting schedule remaining still and I don't think they are built to make the Playoff 

4. Miami @ UNC >> I think UNC is ready to dominate and move up and it will take going undefeated including winning this game, and Duke/Clemson back to back to have any say on a Playoff berth. Devontez Walker played his first game at WR and caught 6 passes. He is capable of opening up space and being an x-factor on offense in this stretch. They have the best defense they have had in years too......they improve every week and don't discount the win for Mack Brown factor with the players adoring him

5. UCLA @ Beavers >> intriguing game with again, a team that has an improved defense with a known offensively gifted team and coach in Chip Kelly......Beavers are just good all around and like the Utah game, I expect them to handle the Bruins unless the CHIP game scheming comes into play. Bruins have the 5th BEST DEFENSE in the nation  presently.....hmmmm

KEY INJURIES: 

Duke > QB Leonard is questionable but the bye week likely helped and the status will change

Col St > #1 receiver and QB crutch is Questionable....usually gains 100-200 yds every week

Flor St > Johnny Wilson catches 50-125 yds per and is questionable

Fresno St > QB Miley Keene is questionable

Illinois > 1 key back out and Love trying to get back to speed 

Ohio St > EGBUKA questionable , Henderson RB did not play last game and still questionable 

Oklahoma > ANTHONY questionable WR

Oregon > lost Whittingham RB

TCU > QB Chandler Morris questionable

UTEP > 3x QB's who have all played, questionable (2 with concussions)

UAB > key RB and pass catch out of backfield questionable 

UTAH > Jackson RB questionable, RISING QB still out indefinitely, Barnes QB now out too

UTAH ST > QB Hillstead missed last game and still questionable

VANDY > QB Swann  missed last game and still questionable

WAKE > Ellison RB went down in Clemson game and questionable

WASH ST > Victor WR questionable ....big play receiver

W.Mich > QB Bousquets still questionable + key RB Buckley

Wyoming > key RB Waylee is questionable...can run for 150-200 yds

TOP 20-30 Next..... won't make any picks till late tonight or tomorrow

I've seen enough to feel pretty good about the Top 10 now and the rest ....but it will settle a little more in the coming weeks:

 AFTER WEEK #5 ....My Ratings: SAGARIN NEXT....getting close to mine finally

1. Michigan 

-love how both them and Georgia playing in same time slot so they are trying to outdo each other and Michigan steamrolling a decent Minny team (not great) on the road with ease and 2nd string too in some positions  

2. Georgia ....warming up to Beck

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3. Ohio St.

4. Oklahoma

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5. Penn St.

6. Florida St.

7. Texas

8. Washington

9. Alabama

10. Oregon

Next Group: 

11. UNC 

12. Tennessee

13. Oregon St.

14. Louisville

15. USC

16. UCLA   (sneaky good defense for Chip)

17. Texas AM

18. LSU

19. Washington St.

20. tie Kansas

20. tie Utah

MAYBE........

Notre Dame (offense has issues/clueless receivers) 

Duke

Ole Miss

Clemson

WVU

Kansas St.

Wisconsin

Miami

2 BEST Non - Power 5 teams

JEFF SAGARIN TOP 12 - after 6 weeks (Alabama #1 rated last week , not this week but I think that win was a big step over TexAM) ...I never look at these before making mine because they get updated 24 hrs after mine are arranged which I enjoy!

1. Michigan   94.2 

2. Ohio St     93.2

3. Alabama   92.9

4. Oklahoma 92.8

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5. Georgia    92.7

6. Penn St.   91.6

7. Texas       91.3

8. Oregon    89.8

9. Wash       87.8

10. Tenn      86.1

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11. Flor St.  85.7

12. Ole Miss and USC 85.6

mate, 

can you confirm any sources on colorado WR horton injury status? if he is out, that is a massive loss for them. please link a source perhaps?

Got the source right here in Covers Injury:

Player POS Status
C. Millen QB Out indefinitely - Undisclosed
( Sun, Oct 8)
T. Horton WR Ques Sat - Undisclosed
( Sun, Oct 8)
K. Holles RB Out indefinitely - Undisclosed
( Sun, Oct 8)
A. Morrow RB Out indefinitely - Knee
( Wed, Sep 27)

Shout out to @Wahoo!! 

He pounded the table on about 5 plays right out of the gate and I  think he hit 4 of 5 and then commented on some more  through the week....absolutely love that thread among others. I read a lot but I do so after doing my capping ALWAYS....and it helps me with my parlays or when I am hitting a .500 or lesser stretch during the day. ** if down a couple units, I can go down to the local lottery and lay $100 one play or combo and those dig me out a lot of times....DUCK gave me one for S.Hou St. as I started to see Liberty changing their play once they got up a bit and I went in on the online app and got SHST +14.5 at one point 

Thanks buddy for what you do and the genius you are.....there are so many that I want to say the same but, you especially love your social + football savvy 

Onto capping soon as we are hanging out after our Canadian Thanksgiving and convo is starting to wane.....some are going to watch some tv shows upstairs....me, I can now settle in and watch this Cowboys + 49ers game and work on my Sagarin number adjustments...then cap!!

Is Colorado state wide receiver Horton is out, bombs away in the Broncos

Jesus....did you see how many yds Boise put up on the ground vs SJST? And I like Madsen and he has shone when Green sucked and so, if Horton is not playing, Rams still have some decent receivers but they are going to be grinding and throwing INTs if they fall behind and press without Horton..... BUT...just looked, Boise is ranked 125th vs the pass. Yikes!

Game is a pass for me but lean OVER on the TEASER

Play #1 - TENN/TEXAM UNDER 56.5  2U

-both can play defense (feels weird saying that about Tenn but, they are not a popgun offense anymore AND have a defense!)

-I expect an Alabama type game where we might get maybe an extra TD more here, but not more than 10 more of that total

#10 def vs the #21 defense in the country who is at home and loves to run.....

Like/Mulling for PARLAY/TEASER or ML these game by conference:

SEC

Revenge game> Missouri +2.5 with an improved/star in the making, Brady Cook vs a weaker secondary than what he faced last year with better receivers.....Kentucky is tough on a skinny line at home BUT.... am looking for every reason to take them but cannot so this feels like a great teaser play with a hot QB and a WR with over 700 yds so far 

Really like UNDER 63.5 teased up to 70.5 with Auburn vs LSU.....can the Tigers score over 28? I think so on this defense but its not their mindset and will LSU have their way with this defense? Not likely. FSU's defense is not as good as this one and this is the best one LSU has faced! I see a 42 - 28 game at worse and likely 33 - 24 at roughly or 31 - 24....its why I don't like it straight up as LSU is peaking on offense but might see them work on their defense and then not have to press on the offensive accelerator like they have been forced to.....these games are tight over the years except for one 

Florida Teased to +9 is sweet and like them Moneyline....just not a good matchup with Florida's balanced offense and strong defense for S.Carolina....these games tend to be blowouts for one team and I just don't like Gamecocks defense so strong lean to Florida here, as they are prepped for this one to focus so they will be ready for Georgia in Jacksonville in 2 weeks 

BIG 10:

Leaning toward Purdue +20.5 and ideally up to +21..... I think +27.5 would be golden here with Purdue who put up some points at home and seem to have enough balance in their offense to get at least a couple scores, and a decent enough defense to handle conservative play calling which is what we see with the Buckeyes on the road..... they only beat Indiana by 20! And, now that Egbuka may not play, what's the incentive to burn out Harrison or get him injured with Penn St. on deck? Also, Henderson is questionable again at RB

Max score of Michigan vs Indiana would be 45 - 10 ....when they face a decent offense or some line firepower, they tend to show off and run up the score, but against weaker foes, they gear it down and tend not to score over 40.....cannot see Indiana scoring more than 10 and so a TEASER UNDER to 56.5 should be good here

Sparty vs Rutgers > can see a 21-17 / 24-17 type score here with the way each defense matches up with each team's strength to move the ball ....weather could be a factor this time of year .....most games are UNDER 48 Pts so the TEASER looks good again here and maybe the UNDER on the number is decent

Sitting on this line and waiting....looking for -14 for Maryland (still may play it) > Illinois has a couple of running backs potentially questionable and I think Maryland's defense is the real surprise here with a deadly QB to put them up and keep adding

Got one play from the Big 10 .....

Play #2 -  Wisconsin/ Iowa UNDER 37.5 x 3U    (24 - 10 or 21 -13 type of score coming up, maybe 24-7)

- Deacon Hill only threw only 110 yds for Iowa last week and their defense was sturdy again....both Iowa and Wisconsin will feel like they can grind on each other and keep it low scoring...so no reason to risk and the weather is showing windy and rain so again, ball control with running will be best and punting the ball, hoping for a mistake. 

-looked at the scores from past 5 yrs and 27-33 pts seems to be the maximum that is scored and even with a throw history of Mordecai, he is not being utilized this way that much (yet) and won't need to in this game

PAC 12: 

I will say this about the big game ....the number is moving where it should be but is Washington's home field worth 5-6 pts?

Bo Nix is a major factor in the last 2 yrs in big games..... this is a revenge game. I am taking the 3 best home fields (besides Oregon) in a ML parlay Play #3 x 1U: Wash, Wash St and Beavers ....PAYS almost 2.5 

Do like UCLA +11 TEASED UP...

Do like Arizona +15 TEASED UP ...

Do like Washington as a TEASER KEY at +4.5 !!!

This is making money week and I feel like my strategy above is best.....already have 5U in two Totals Plays

I didn’t pound the table my friend, just posted what I thought could be recommended haha 

my first time to ever win, I’ll never forget it 

thanks bro, much love, I enjoy helping others win, it’s a tough game we play 

The more I slice and dice things with my numbers, there are a lot of close lines to my numbers that I see the TEASER as the way to play this week to gain an advantage where I feel the number gives me a 3 pt edge:

 TEASER KEY: 7 PT - each play is $20

#1 String:  USC + 9.5 with UNC +3.5

#2 String: Oregon +10 with Washington St - 1

Play each string with:

1. Missouri +9.5

2. Memphis +11.5

3. Iowa St. +12

4. Florida +9

5. Maryland -7

6. UCLA +11

.......missed the Auburn/LSU total....should have grabbed it right away with teaser at 63.5 > down to 60

$240 Invested in Teasers

....ALSO have my Washington ML parlay with Oregon ML pays 2 to 1 X 1U

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Waiting For a Better Week for ATS lines but have these 2 plays I snagged right away last Sunday:

Play #1 - TENN/TEXAM UNDER 56.5  2U

Play #2 -  Wisconsin/ Iowa UNDER 37.5 x 3U

.....might hunt for an ATS play in the next 3 days but nothing really really grabs me....hesitated on Purdue +20.5 

See a potential error here that could be misinterpreted >>> this means Washington Huskies and Oregon St. Beavers parlay >>> ....ALSO have my Washington ML parlay with Oregon ML pays 2 to 1 X 1U

I also declared my intent early last Sunday to use Washington St as well (in the parlay) but having looked at Arizona hold both USC and Washington to 7 and 3 pt losses, I decided to use the TEASER on Wash St and assume that the game COULD end up a coin flip if the Cougars are not careful

Arizona is gaining a lot of respect in my eyes how they keep fighting the whole game....

So what's the secret sauce, that has dropped this Sam Houston line of +6 down to +3.5???

Has anyone bothered to look at the fact they have 4 active Running Backs doubtful for this game and the only other runner of the ball who moves with it is the QB who has thrown 4 TDs but got intercepted 5x 

So what do I do as a defensive co-ordinator?

I play man to man and use a spy on the QB and rush the QB all night long......... 

If NEW MEX ST do not cover this line, they are idiots!! 

Play #3 - NEW MEX ST. -3.5 x 1U 

Please comment to me tactically how you expect Sam Houston to put points on the board in abundances that would push this score past 17 pts for them which is what they will likely need to cover ??

GL to  your plays & this  season @Last2thirst

Thanks Buddy

Seeing lots of 3rd and 4th and 7's for Sam Houston......hmmmm....I wonder why? 

Intuition 101:

Sometimes, we over analyze and the answer is in front of us if we just let come out with an open mind and logic

Why didn't I slam this haha....lots of game left but 14-0 NMST

Just have exotic plays open but guaranteed to make $$ this week....just gravy now

Play #1 - TENN/TEXAM UNDER 56.5  2U    

Play #2 -  Wisconsin/ Iowa UNDER 37.5 x 3U 

Play #3 - NEW MEX ST. -3.5 x 1U 

3- 0  /+6 Units SIDES/Totals this week... less was more just not caving in to 'the itch'

Season now = 18 - 12 - 1 ATS  / +12 Units 

Exotics = Losing at least 10 Units but hope to claw some of that back with open plays still 

EXOTIC BET RESULTS:

TEASER KEY: 7 PT - each play is $20

#1 String:  USC + 9.5 ( been saying all year they are a fraud and doubted my IRISH, that is stupid!) with UNC +3.5 

#2 String: Oregon +10  with Washington St - 1  << I'll be honest, I plugged my nose on this one due to the new Zona QB and tough defense in their last 2 games holding two strong teams to scores within 7 points.....Cougars at home is gold usually but they are a fraud I guess....how the hell do you get smoked like that on a Saturday night??

Play each string with:

1. Missouri +9.5

2. Memphis +11.5

3. Iowa St. +12

4. Florida +9

5. Maryland -7

6. UCLA +11

.......missed the Auburn/LSU total....should have grabbed it right away with teaser at 63.5 > down to 60

$240 Invested in Teasers   

... Washington ML parlay with Oregon St ML pays 2 to 1 X 1U    (only down about $130 on my exotics now)

Working on Top 20  and look forward to Buckeyes and Nittany Lions next week...wow, that line will be interesting

AFTER WEEK #7

1. Michigan  ... I don't think there is any doubt they deserve this until they lose,

or until they play Georgia

2. Ohio St. ..impressive road win

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3. Georgia ....not sold on this team yet or the SEC in general this year (when was the 

last thread started this year on > SEC IS THE BEST? )

4. tie Oklahoma

4. tie Washington

(Committee will likely pick one of these if one stays undefeated)

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6. Texas

7. Penn St. (moves to Top 4 with win over Ohio St.)

8. Florida St. (should not be in Top 4 as of now based on SOS resume!)

9.  UNC   (nod due to undefeated but secondary lapses sometimes)

10. Oregon ( I think they are a potential Top 4 team if they would have won their road game versus the Huskies, based on what I saw with the run game and strong defense at times)

Next Group: 

11. Oregon St.

12. Alabama

13. Tennessee

14. Notre Dame

15. LSU

16. Utah

17. Missouri

18. Duke

19. Clemson

20. Ole Miss

MAYBE.....

Texas AM

UCLA

Kansas St.

Louisville

Florida

USC

Arizona

Miami

Kansas

1-2 of the BEST Non - Power 5 teams = Tulane, SMU, Fresno St., Liberty and Air Force

Improving each week >>  Iowa State, Oklahoma St.

Thanks 

Excited to see the OVER/UNDER on IOWA-MINNESOTA......should be a nice UNDER fade there