Alabama +3.5 @ Florida TOTAL 45.5
Bama has the best defense in the country IMO. They are slightly better than LSU and showed this past week against Arkansas that their pass rush is just fine. Petrino pulled Wilson out of the game around the 11 minute mark because his QB was taking a beating. Arkansas has a better QB and a better core of WR's than Florida. I know Demps and Rainey are very good but their style doesn't match up well with Bama. Without the ability to stretch the field vertically with their WR's I just don't see how Florida has any offensive consistency. The Alabama offense played it's best game of the year against Arkansas. The running game looked strong and the OL played very well. They will facing one of the nation's best fronts in Florida's DL. The second level guys for Florida aren't quite up to the level of what we see out of a good Florida team. Richardson and Lacy have the ability to break tackles and move the chains. Richardson is a nightmare for LB's when he catches screens or check downs (much like Rainey and Demps can be). Maze and Hanks are experienced WR's but Bama's WR core as a whole has been inconsistent. The Gator secondary is an area that can be exploited.
I see this game going like a heavy weight boxing match early with both teams feeling their opponents out. The QB play is important in that neither make the crucial mistake but I feel Brantley has to produce more than McCarron in this one if the Gators are going to win. The outer layers of this game are interesting too. You have Saban's former assistant in Muschamp trying to match wits with his old boss. And Weiss will try and earn his check against the best defensive mind in CFB. At the end of the day I think Bama has more players and playmakers than Florida and they will run the ball and stop the run. That is the way to get it done on the road.
The UNDER is a strong play here as well as I have it 8 points under the total.
LEANS: Under 45.5
LOCKED: Bama -4 for 2 units (you can get it at 3.5 at most places now).
Mississippi State @ Georgia -7 TOTAL 53
I have Georgia as a 8.5 point favorite and my projected total is at 53.5. Georgia has revenge on their mind from last year's loss. State has a couple of tough losses and escaped last week with an OT win over La Tech. Georgia dominated Ole Miss in a 27-13 win but the game was much closer than it should have been. These two teams played a very low scoring game last year (MSU won 24-12). Georgia stuffed the MSU offense for the most part last year but had a couple of bad turnovers that cost them. I have Georgia winning 31-22 and see no reason to touch this game.
LEANS: None
Auburn @ South Carolina -9.5 TOTAL 59.5
South Carolina has double revenge from last year and were embarrassed by the Tigers in the SEC Championship game. USC has all the tools but Garcia has been awful at QB. He threw 4 INTs against Vanderbilt and the fact that Spurrier left him in tells you that he knows Garcia is the guy that gives them the best chance to win. This may be the healing game for Garcia. Auburn's defense has more holes than the Bunny Ranch and the Auburn OL will struggle against a very athletic South Carolina defensive line. Lattimore should have a big game on the ground and the AU secondary has no answer for Ashlon Jeffrey. The only questions for me are can Garcia take care of the ball and can Dyer be Superman for the Auburn offense? I have this total at 60.5 and the predicted score at South Carolina 36-24. If the line continues to drop I may have a play on the Cocks.
LEAN: South Carolina
Arkansas v. Texas A&M -3 TOTAL 62 GAME IS AT COWBOY STADIUM
Both teams are coming off losses. Texas A&M blew a 17 point lead at home while Arkansas was dominated in Tuscaloosa. How will either team respond? Arkansas has won the last two meetings but the gap has been closed by Texas A&M. Arkansas has weapons on offense and a very good QB. The loss of Davis has hurt their running game and the OL is still an unsettled situation. The Hogs lost one of their starting DE's last week and the other, Bequette, didn't play against Bama last week. He should play this week and that would be a major boost to the Hog defense. A&M has run the ball well at times and if they run it in this one they will probably win. I just can't wager on this one with the uncertainty of how either team responds. I have the Hogs winning 28-27 so the UNDER 62 is a possible play.
LEAN: Under
Kentucky @ LSU -29.5 TOTAL 45.5
LSU is at home and Kentucky is awful. I do wonder how interested LSU will be here in a game where they overmatch their opponent. UK will struggle to move the ball but LSU may coast offensively here. I don't trust my numbers here as I have it at LSU 32-16. 32-6 seems more likely but this game is an easy pass.
LEANS: None
Ole Miss @ Fresno State -3.5 TOTAL 53
I have this game projected with Fresno winning 29-20. The under is a possible play due to how poor this Ole Miss offense is. Ole Miss is off to an awful start and now they have to travel across the country to take on Pat Hill's Bulldogs. Fresno will play hard and their offense has shown some life this year. I just don't see Ole Miss bringing any life at all which makes but Hil will preach to his team about an oppurtunity to beat an SEC team. Ole Miss won 55-38 last year but there is no chance for that kind of offensive explosion from Ole Miss this time around.
LEAN: Fresno and Under
Buffalo @ Tennessee -28.5 TOTAL 53
I have UT winning 30-20 which seems way off here. Buffalo played UConn pretty tough and lost at Ball State by 3. Pitt only led 7-3 at the half against Buffalo before winning easily. Buffalo has cover 3 of 4 this year. UT is coming off a bye week after their loss in the Swamp. They have Georgia next week and I think they are going to try and get their running game going with Poole this week. This game has the feel of UT starting slow before pulling away in the second half. UT will win easily but they won't cover IMO.
LEAN: Buffalo
I will lock in a few plays over the next couple of days. Good luck
This is my first play on Bama this year and I am 2-0 betting the Gators. That isn't a homer! Your analysis is by far the dumbest fucking thing I have ever seen.
This is AJ's first SEC road start but he was very calm and very much in control in a hostile enviroment at Penn State. And this game will not be put in his hands.
I bet Bama will be ready and focused as well.
Arkansas has a lot more playmakers outside than Florida. Demps and Rainey are fast but they don't have the ability to wear down the Bama defense.
Florida hasn't faced anything close to what they will face on Saturday in Bama's defense. And the Swamp didn't bother South Carolina or LSU much last year. The Swamp is a tough place to play when they have a good to great team. This Gator team isn't there yet!
Yeah Fresno looks like a good play. I am holding off to see if I can get -3.
Thursday night play:
USF -3 @ Pitt - For the third consecutive week I am going with the Thursday night fav. The Bulls are 4-0 and but they only have 1 quality win @ Notre Dame. That is one more than Pitt has. The Panthers have lost 2 in a row with both losses coming in the 4th quarter. Pitt hasn't run the ball well for the last 3 weeks and now they face the best run defense they will have faced up to this point. Sunseri will likely be facing some long 3rd downs and that spells trouble against a very athletic USF front. USF has been pretty good on offense but the level of competition has a lot to do with that. Daniel is passing the eye test at QB and this USF team is confident. I give the USF coaching staff the advantage here and the USF offense may not explode for 50 in this spot but they will do enough to compliment a very good defensive effort. USF 31-20
USF -3
Kentucky +30.5 2 units - UK is awful on offense but their defense will be able to keep LSU around 28-35 points. LSU's defense will give up a couple of TD's because of their lack of interest. They will win comfortably but UK covers by double digits.
Arizona +12 - The line has moved towards the Wildcats. They have played 3 of the top 15 teams in the country in consecutive weeks and playing this USC defense will allow the Cats offense to get going. USC's Barkley looks disinterested a lot of times. I think that Arizona has a chance to win a shootout here.
Fresno St -3 (-120) - Ole Miss travels across the country with one horrendous offense. Fresno can score and if they get off to a good start at home it could get ugly for the Rebs.
LEANS not locked in yet:
Buffalo +28.5 - The Vols have Georgia on deck and will win but not by 4 TDs.
GT -10 - NC State host a very hot offense. They looked bad last week at Cinci and GT is moving the football at will.
Wisconsin -10 - Nebraska is pretty below average on defense and one dimensional on offense. Madison will be rocking on Saturday night!
Recap:
USF -3 
Bama -4 (2 units)
Kentucky +30.5 (2 units)
Arizona +12
Fresno -3 (-120)
Actually enjoyed your write up and agree with you on several points. I do think LSU has a a better defense than Bama and anyone else in football. LSU is Bamas defense combined with Floridas. Big AND Fast!... Also, the easiest way to wear out a defense is by getting them to run sideline to sideline which is what Demps and Rainey do. So im not sure where you were going at with that point. Florida will run a no huddle offense and Demps and Rainey will be a constant home run threat in the backfield. Thats enough to wear any defense out. But BOL, I believe it is going to be a great game. 20-17... I just dont know who wins
Actually enjoyed your write up and agree with you on several points. I do think LSU has a a better defense than Bama and anyone else in football. LSU is Bamas defense combined with Floridas. Big AND Fast!... Also, the easiest way to wear out a defense is by getting them to run sideline to sideline which is what Demps and Rainey do. So im not sure where you were going at with that point. Florida will run a no huddle offense and Demps and Rainey will be a constant home run threat in the backfield. Thats enough to wear any defense out. But BOL, I believe it is going to be a great game. 20-17... I just dont know who wins Bama is pretty damn fast and they play fast. This is an experienced group that knows what they are doing. Florida will have a lot of short offensive possessions and the Bama OL and big RB's will eventually wear down the Florida defense. UF has a lot of talent on the DL but depth is a concern. This is the best tackling Alabama team I have seen. I usually go to Gainesville every time Bama is there because my college roommate is a Gator fan. I am out of town and couldn't make it this year.
I don't like Nebraska's defense and their offense's inability to be consistent in the passing game. The reason it isn't a play is because there is some unknown with this Wisconsin team as well.
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