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WEEK 5 OVERALL 63-27-1......71%

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The G.O.A.T

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Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 591

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 9:56 AM ET #51

Not sure how you can make Virginia a "BEST BET" at +7 and lose total confidence in then at +6.

IMO if I'm considering an underdog of 7 or less a best bet I'm saying they have a great chance to win the game outright. That's just me though.

So, why wouldn't you take them at 6. Are you predicting they lose by 7 and worst case scenario you push?

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:18 AM ET #52

GOAT, it's pure value at 7. Obviously is was the early sharps that moved the number to 6 and not 6.5. This is all about numbers. As I'm sure you have read all my predictions on the movement of the numbers and I have been dead on with every single one along with the closing number. It's not about meaning this a best bet because I think they will win outright. They very well may but this is about getting the valued 7. I have passed on games in the passed that I missed the early value and late action moved the number even more. Example: if I miss the early bird special of this game +7 and it is currently 6, I am holding off to see where the late action goes. If it moves the number even more to a close of 5-5.5, now I am stepping up my unit size on the dog. It's all in the numbers.

Someone asked me my opinion on this past weekend about Miami -59. I explained that the oddsmakers put that number on that for a reason. They won by 63 and the guy didn't listen to me. 59 is perceived to be a lot higher than 58. There would not have been near the dog action if it was 58.... It's all in the numbers

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:22 AM ET #53

Clarfied: if the number stays at 6, I pass. If the numbers moves more, I will wager. I apologize. Typing on my phone Andy sentences in my earlier post ran in to each other and I'm sure that became confusing

markpa

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Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 620

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:26 AM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

Ohio St -7

The Buckeyes are the best team in the Big 10 and will show why on Saturday. Coach Urban Meyer has a well balanced team that will show off their great offense while their defense completely stuffs the Badgers rush offense. Not sure Buckeyes are getting enough respect for how good they are but after this blowout in week 5 Ohio State will be double digit favorites in every other game this season.

cant believe this isn't a best bet? I mean this is the same spread 7 that zona st was fav over wisky.... You know this spread is off u must add atleast a field goal for a night game at ohio st... in fact I will say with urban at the helm a night game is worth 6 points ... so u tell me bottom line if u agree or not? if u agree the would mean ohio st and wisky are even??? noway man..... also, better play ohio st while u can cause after this the value will be gone....red how can u not make it atleast a best bet???????????

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:27 AM ET #55

Oregon Over 84

This game features a high-octane Oregon offense against a piss-poor Cal defense. Cal is avg. 555 YPG. Oregon is avg. 672 YPG. Cal loves to air the ball out and use a up-tempo Sonny Dykes offense. They don't care about defense, they just want to score. Cal's defense is horrible and they have multiple defensive injuries to make it worse. Cal is giving up 265 rushing yards a game (6 YPC) , while Oregon is avg. 8.5 YPC. I look for Oregon to stick 60+ on the board again and Cal will put up the rest. They could set this total at 94, and I would still give you the OVER as a play

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:30 AM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by markpa:

Ohio St -7 (Best Bet)

Thank you for catching that Mark. This is actually my highest unit play so far out of the early action. Very good and good luck

markpa

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 620

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:39 AM ET #57

u got it sir .. best luck to us

. also looks like ohio st team total looks like 31.5 ..lmao I cant see anyway this wont go over.. love the Oregon over as well... looking to a shootout in the geo/lsu game .. keep hitten them

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:40 AM ET #58

Week 5 plays so far:

Ohio St -7 (Best Bet)

Virginia +7 (Best Bet)

Florida St -21 (Best Bet)

Wyoming -11

Navy -3

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 11:41 AM ET #59

#58

Posted: 9/24/2013 11:40:28 AM

Week 5 plays so far:

Ohio St -7 (Best Bet)

Virginia +7 (Best Bet)

Florida St -21 (Best Bet)

Wyoming -11

Navy -3

Oregon Over 84

chad77

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Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 1636

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 12:14 PM ET #60

Man I hate to be "that guy". But Wisky has the perfect team to give OSU problems. Also Miller coming back, rusty ? Sharp ? Tentative ? This is where Buckeyes lose their season. Wisky controls the ball, clock, and LOS .. OSU 24 Wisky 27!!! Vegas will get richer on this game after the OSU blowout last week.. Hope I'm wrong !! Good news is I usually am :)) good luck guys..

CRS

Captain

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Posts: 5625

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 12:59 PM ET #61

I like your style Red_Soxxxxxxxx. Continued Success. Always looking forward to your insight and opinion. BOL the rest of the way !

capskip

Legend

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Posts: 33526

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 1:40 PM ET #62

Best of Luck buddy

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 2:07 PM ET #63

One of the more dangerous underdogs this weekend is Washington St at home with the Cardinal coming to town. This is a program on the rise. This may be one of those games.....

EKUD

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 456

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 2:40 PM ET #64

Quote Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

GOAT, it's pure value at 7. Obviously is was the early sharps that moved the number to 6 and not 6.5. This is all about numbers. As I'm sure you have read all my predictions on the movement of the numbers and I have been dead on with every single one along with the closing number. It's not about meaning this a best bet because I think they will win outright. They very well may but this is about getting the valued 7. I have passed on games in the passed that I missed the early value and late action moved the number even more. Example: if I miss the early bird special of this game +7 and it is currently 6, I am holding off to see where the late action goes. If it moves the number even more to a close of 5-5.5, now I am stepping up my unit size on the dog. It's all in the numbers.

Someone asked me my opinion on this past weekend about Miami -59. I explained that the oddsmakers put that number on that for a reason. They won by 63 and the guy didn't listen to me. 59 is perceived to be a lot higher than 58. There would not have been near the dog action if it was 58.... It's all in the numbers

They actually won by 70. It was 77-7.

ndsent1

Hall of Fame

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Posts: 20684

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 3:05 PM ET #65

Great right up sox keep the streak going ...

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 3:32 PM ET #66

Quote Originally Posted by ndsent1:

Great right up sox keep the streak going ...

Dblduce5178

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Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 1418

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 3:35 PM ET #67

Thoughts on Miami/USF. I normally do not overreact to lines but this just doesn't make sense to me. USF may be the worst team in the country.
Miami-19????

Red_Soxxxxxxxx

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Posts: 2042

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 3:50 PM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by Dblduce5178:

Thoughts on Miami/USF. I normally do not overreact to lines but this just doesn't make sense to me. USF may be the worst team in the country.
Miami-19????

Exactly, do not overreact on this one. These interstate games are usually played tight. I'll break it down but at this point it looks like it will fall right around 17 which means a big fat loser for Hurricane backers

cowboysfan4romo

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 492

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 4:00 PM ET #69

I was looking into UVA earlier. I see a lot of value at getting laying 7 as well. Will lock in later today after a bit more research.

BOL! EXPOSE THE BOOKS!

cowboysfan4romo

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 492

Posted: Sep. 24, 2013 - 4:04 PM ET #70

QUOTE Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:

GOAT, it's pure value at 7. Obviously is was the early sharps that moved the number to 6 and not 6.5. This is all about numbers. As I'm sure you have read all my predictions on the movement of the numbers and I have been dead on with every single one along with the closing number. It's not about meaning this a best bet because I think they will win outright. They very well may but this is about getting the valued 7. I have passed on games in the passed that I missed the early value and late action moved the number even more. Example: if I miss the early bird special of this game +7 and it is currently 6, I am holding off to see where the late action goes. If it moves the number even more to a close of 5-5.5, now I am stepping up my unit size on the dog. It's all in the numbers.

^^^ THIS ^^^

Well put brotherman...